Abstract Passing performance is often summarized by completion rate, which can obscure differences in pass difficulty, decision value, and execution. We developed an interpretable risk–reward framework combining a calibrated expected pass-completion model with a cross-fitted pass-chain continuation threat model. The framework separates expected success value, expected failure cost, and execution relative to completion probability. The analysis included 3,396,912 open-play passes from 3,926 matches.
