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How Worried Is The MPC About The Risk Of ‘Sticky’ Inflation?
The Bank of England raised Bank Rate this week for the first time in three years, to 4 per cent. Our view, set out in Thursday’s press notice and will develop in next week’s Economic Outlook, is that the Monetary Policy Committee is behind the curve given the size of the energy shock and the evidence that inflation expectations are already above levels consistent with the 2 per cent target.
Navigating a Challenging Economic Inheritance
The government talks about moving “money and power out of Westminster, and into every postcode around Britain” while promising to adhere to the fiscal rules. But those fiscal rules are acting as an increasingly binding constraint. In March, the OBR suggested that the current fiscal balance would record a surplus of £24 billion by 2029-30. Our latest forecast projects a small deficit of £3.4 billion, largely because NIESR forecasts slower growth over the next four years than the OBR.
UK Inflation: The Calm Before the Energy Price Storm Hits
Annual CPI inflation fell to 2.6 per cent from 2.8 per cent in May. Monthly price growth between May and June 2026 was lower than expected at 0.1 per cent and lower than in 2025 at 0.3 per cent, leading to a decrease of 0.2 percentage points in annual inflation. The monthly inflation for May and June was considerably lower than in the previous two months, which averaged 0.71 per cent (an annualised equivalent of almost 9 per cent).
Inflationary Shock Likely To Persist For Several Months
Annual CPI inflation increased to 3.3%, up from 3.0% in February. Monthly price growth between February and March 2026 was notably strong at 0.67% (equivalent to an annualised rate of over 8%), compared with a more typical increase of 0.35% in March 2025. This difference accounts for the 0.3 percentage point rise in headline inflation (after rounding). The sharp increase in March suggests that the initial effects of the US–Israeli conflict with Iran have materialised more quickly than anticipated.
And So The Inflation Pickup Begins
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Caution: Stagflation Ahead
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Inflation Expected to Fall Below Two Per Cent By April 2026
UK annual CPI inflation dropped to 3.0 per cent in January 2026, down from 3.4 per cent. This blog explores the factors behind this fall and examines what this downward trend means for potential interest rate cuts. Annual CPI inflation fell to 3.0 per cent from 3.4 per cent. January is the most “seasonal” month for inflation, in that prices usually fall (the January sales effect).
Actions or words? Afghan journalists question Taliban’s free press pledge
US News Published by Reuters (Reuters) – Beaten, homes raided, turned away from work for being a woman: the complaints made by some Afghan journalists in recent days are sowing doubt about assurances made by their new Taliban rulers that independent media would be allowed. In its first press conference since capturing the capital Kabul, the Islamist militant movement said on Tuesday it would allow free media and jobs for women – banned when it was last in power from 1996 to 2001.
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