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Labor Participation Rate Remains At 37 Year Low As 94.5 Million Remains Outside The Labor Force
In another sign that the labor market slack, at least from the Fed's perspective, is now reaching a peak, the Household survey reported that while the civilian labor force rose by over 300K in October, the number of people not in the labor force actually declined by 97K to 94.5MM (as those employed rose by 320K), following a surge of over half a million in September.
Americans' "Comfort" Plunges Most Since February Despite Surging Stocks
US equities are surging, talking heads are exuberant, and China's fixed - so why are Americans so miserable?
Eventually The Weight Becomes Too Much To Bear
The “equal-weight” S&P 500 has dropped to near 3-year lows versus the cap-weighted version. Previous such events under similar conditions occurred at inauspicious times. Continuing with the impromptu weekly theme regarding the relatively “thin” nature of the recent stock rally, today we take a look inside the S&P 500. Like yesterday’s post on the consumer discretionary sector, this one examines the “equal-weight version of the index versus the traditional cap-weighted version.
This Is What It Took To Get The S&P 500 "Back To Even" For 2015
Great news... US equity market investors (judging by the S&P 500) have now lost no money this year (and have made no money). All it took to get stocks "back to even" for 2015 was... no Fed hike, more ECB QE and more negative rates, China rate cuts, and negative EPS growth. What more do you need to BTFD? These are your "markets"... Feeling "wealthy"? Chart: Bloomberg Average: Your rating: None Average: 5 (3 votes)
Breaking: China Cuts Interest Rate By 25 bps, Cuts RRR by 50 bps; Futures Soar; Fed December Rate Hike Back In Play
Just two days ago, we noted that according to Citi's Willem Buiter, there would be "Imminent Easing From Central Banks Of China, Australia, Japan And Europe." Fast forward 48 hours when he is already half right - not only did Europe confirm it is about to cut, but moments ago none other than China joined the global easing orgy when in a completely unexpected development as it happened on a Friday (we are scouring various databases to find the last time, if ever this happened) China announced...
Is Mario Draghi About To Go Full-Kuroda? RBS Says ECB Could Buy Stocks
At Thursday’s presser, Mario Draghi telegraphed more easing from the ECB come December. This wasn’t exactly a surprise. In fact, some observers had expected Draghi to expand PSPP at the September meeting and although the market was disappointed in that regard, the ECB did raise the issue limit from 25% to 33% effectively giving themselves more dry powder. The question now, is what exactly the ECB will announce.
VRX Halted Down 40%, Issues Statement, Says "Citron's Report Is Erroneous"
Valeant Pharma is halted for the 4th time today, this time for news pending, as the stock has lost 40% of its value since the open. The recent bounce, on what David Faber said may be the company buying back stock, just fizzed: Nomura says - do not worry... But the rest of the Biotech world is in full panic denial mode... Who can blame them.
How The Entire Short Volatility ETF Complex Could Be Wiped Out Overnight
Global central banking has artificially incentivized bets on mean reversion resulting in tremendous demand to short volatility. The growth of short volatility exchange traded products (“ETPs”) since 2012 is nothing short of extraordinary and at the end of August, total short volatility assets exceeded long for only the second time in history. The rise of this short complex is intrinsically linked to the recent schizophrenic behavior of the VIX and adds significant shadow convexity to markets.
There Goes The Final Pillar Of The US "Recovery": The Loan-Growth Paradox Explained
With the manufacturing side of the economy now openly in recession (based not only on earnings call confessions, regional Fed surveys, but an inventory-to-sales spread that has never been greater and is screaming liquidation, as well as an energy sector that has been in freefall for the past year), and the US consumer - that 70% component of US GDP - slamming into a wall following not only three months of disappointing payrolls, non-existent wage growth, plunging retail sales, a high-end...
Artist's Impression Of The First Democratic Debate
Marc Faber is an eloquent advocate of owning physical gold which he describes as being a way to become “your own central bank.” He believes an allocation to physical gold will serve as vital...
It's Time For Negative Rates, Fed's Kocherlakota Hints
If you’re a fan of dovish policymakers who are committed to Keynesian insanity, you can always count on Minneapolis Fed chief Narayana Kocherlakota who, as we’ve detailed extensively, is keen on the idea that if the US wants to help itself out, it will simply issue more monetizable debt, because that way, the Fed will have more room to ease in the event its current easing efforts continue to prove entirely ineffective (and yes, the irony ineherent in that assessment is completely intentional).
Credit & Crude Carnage Continues As Stocks Stop-Run, Slump, & Pump
The Nikkei tells you all you need to know about hopes for more stimulus and Kuroda crushing dreams... It all started exuberantly as Quarter-Start, and Month-Start flows were front-run on the heels of Japan open ramp and stimlus hopes from the lowest China pMI on record. But it appears the flows did not turn up and stocks slid. Once Europe closed the algos took over and lifted stock back into the green On the day, Trannies outperformed... and S&P went green by the close..
US Futures Surge Nearly 30 Points To Overnight Highs After Tumbling On Worst Chinese Data In 6 Years
In many ways, the overnight market has so far been a reversal of yesterday, when a stable Asia session (with China stocks rising) gave way to a European tumble which in turn dragged the US lower. So far, we have seen Asian markets trade lower following the lacklustre performance of its global counterparts, while weak Chinese manufacturing PMI data, which as we reported earlier printed at levels not seen since March 2009 - further exacerbated losses.
PIMCO's Balls On The Fed: There Will Be No Escape From ZIRP
Last month, the vice president of the St. Louis Fed Stephen D. Williamson did a funny thing: he released a white paper which dared to suggest that Ben Bernanke was wrong about QE and that not only was there no demonstrable link between trillions in asset purchases and positive economic outcomes, inflation expectations have actually declined across markets where central bank asset purchases are largest in terms of GDP.
More American Cronyism: US Government Selling Visas To Fund Luxury Apartment Buildings
Merging, on paper, the affluent midtown neighborhood and the struggling one uptown placed Hudson Yards in a community with an overall high unemployment rate, positioning developer Related Cos. to gain low-cost financing from foreigners seeking green cards. The program through which that happens, known as EB-5, enables foreign nationals to obtain U.S. permanent-resident status by putting up money for new business ventures that create American jobs.
US Imports Biggest "Disinflationary Impulse" In 6 Years At Worst Possible Time
August's import prices dropped a stunning 11.4% YoY, the biggest drop since September 2009. This faster-than-expected deceleration suggests "another leg lower" according to TD's Millan Mulraine, as USD strength and renewed energy declines feed through the price channel and reverses a hope-filled mid-year drift higher. This is the 13th month of YoY drops (and 111th of last 12 MoM drops) flashing a recessionary warning.
Why Stocks Are Ramping
Well, it's not the economy stupid: Since USDJPY lost its overnight "the BOJ will do more QE on October 30" momo-mojoo, the levered correlation algso switched to the other asset that was going up: crude oil. And that's the only, and ery simple, reason why your financial markets are being levitated this morning: S&P correlation algos: just tracking whatever is going up, tick for tick.
"Calm Before The Storm?" Dow's 2015 Range Crashes To Lowest Ever
The Dow's volatility is dead... long live The Dow's volatility. 2015 is now officially the least volatile (lowest trading range) in stock market history... After 157 trading days, the Dow has traded in a 6.44% range - the tightest range EVER! As Nassim Taleb recently wrote... This is the calm before the storm...
Chinado Sparks Bullion's Best Week In 3 Months; US Stocks, Bonds Shrug
This seemed appropriate... China's stock markets had their best week since the crash began... As Yuan had its biggest weekly drop since 1994... Which meant massive EURCNH carry unwinds.. leading to European stocks 2nd worst week since December... Prior to today, the S&P has closed lower on 10 of the last 12 Fridays - this has not happened since 2007...But today - thanks to old news on AAPL and old news on Europe's bailout... we melted up...
Oil Tumbles Under $43, Approaches Goldman's "Last Ditch" Support Level
WTI Crude just broke to a $42 handle - which would be the lowest closing price on a continuous adjusted future contract since March 2009. Based on the front-month contract, Goldman Sachs warns that there is "last ditch" support between $43.24 and $42.44 - a break below there could lead to serious capitulation... Average: Your rating: None Average: 5 (2 votes)
"I Sure Am Glad There's No Inflation"
I sure am glad there's no inflation, because these "stable prices" the Federal Reserve keeps jaw-jacking about are putting us in a world of hurt. We are constantly bombarded with two messages about inflation: 2. This worries the Federal Reserve terribly, because stable prices are deflationary and deflation is (for reasons that are never explained) like the financial Black Plague that will wipe out humanity if it isn't vanquished by a healthy dose of inflation (i.e. getting less for your money).
Ashley Madison Hacked: America's 37 Million 'Cheaters' About To Be Exposed
Two months ago, AdultFriendFinder was hacked, exposing fuck buddy friend-finding federal employees among its 3.5 million user 'exposure'. Today, as KrebsOnSecurity reports, large caches of data stolen from online cheating site AshleyMadison.com have been posted online by an individual or group that claims to have completely compromised the company’s user databases, financial records and other proprietary information (including profiles with all the customers’ secret sexual fantasies).
The Value Of Google Just Increased By More Than The Market Cap Of 415 S&P500 Companies
Google's result were good (even if the top-line revenue missed), but what investors were looking for, and what had pressured GOOG's stock price for the past year, was concern that runaway hiring and spending were eating away at the bottom line.
Small Business Optimism Crashes To 15 Month Lows
With all hopes and dreams of economic renaissance in America pinned on small businesses (see ADP's recent gains), today's data from the NFIB will strike fear in the heart of the wealth-effect-creating Fed. The NFIB small business optimism index disappointed expectations in June (94.1 vs. consensus 98.5), falling to its lowest level since March 2014 - the biggest drop since 2012. All components were weaker but most notably hiring and plans to raise worker compensation tumbled.
Schaeuble Proposes A Trade: US Takes Greece, Germany Takes Puerto Rico
Incorrigible German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble — who, as a reminder, is enjoying all-time high approval ratings at home thanks to his hardline stance towards Greece — spoke on Thursday at an event hosted by the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and had some interesting things to say about the Greeks and their prospects for remaining in the euro and obtaining the IMF-supported debt relief. Here are some highlights. "We have to consider the acute problem of Greece at the moment.
Durable Goods Order Bounce Dead; Biggest Drop Since 2009
March's exulted bounce in Durable Goods faded rapidly into April's disappointing drop and today we see May disappoint further with a 1.8% drop (against expectations of a 0.1% drop) having missed 5 of the last 7 months. Revisions are big and negative... so that's not helping and has pushed Durable Goods Orders NSA down 5.0% YoY - the largest 10-month slump since Dec09... the last time we dropped this much, The Fed unleashed QE3.
Crude Soars Despite Record Saudi Production, Lowest China Demand Growth Since 1998
If Inventories down, then buy oil at the fastest pace in 2 months. That appears to be the algo logic as talking heads additionally blame Saudi airstrikes on Yemen for the over 6% surge in WTI in the last 2 days. However, as crude nears $62 (6 month highs) once again, we note that not only Saudi oil production just hit a new record high, but US production hit a new cycle high last week (DOE data today), and this is happening as China's energy demand grows at the slowest pace since 1998.
Confused Economists Ponder Missing Wage Growth "Mystery"
On Thursday, in “‘Where’s My Raise?’: American Workers Suddenly Realize The ‘Recovery’ Isn’t Real”, we once more took up the topic of America’s missing wage growth.
Investors Are Trapped In A "Twilight Zone", BofAML Warns Of Looming C.R.A.S.H. Risks
Episodes of “corrections” are apparently happening more frequently according to BofAML's credit strategist Barnaby Martin... ... and given the extremities of liquidity, profits, technological disruption, regulation, and income inequality, BofAML warns 'gently' that the potential for a cleansing drop in asset prices cannot be dismissed. Investors are unambiguously positioned for the US consumer to once again lead the global recovery.
Uber Is Now Valued Higher Than 80% Of The S&P: Closing In On General Motors And Ford
Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that just three months after it stunned observers with a $2.8 billion Series E capital raise at a $40 billion valuation, surpassing the market cap of such "blue chip" names as Canon, Yum! Brands, Delta Air Lines, Prudential and Adobe (not to mention the market cap of the entire QQQ ETF), car hailing company Uber is seeking to raise another $1.5 billion, this time at a valuation round of $50 billion: a $10 billion increase in value in a few short months.
No More Greater Fools: Retail Traders Are "Pretty Fully Invested" In Stocks, TD CEO Says
If you didn't know any better, you might think the above is yet another example of someone describing one of the dynamics driving China's self-feeding equity mania. After all, the country's "world-beating" rally has everyone from housewives to banana vendors opening stock trading accounts by the millions while piling on margin debt and trading so often that the computers tracking volume literally give up and shut themselves down.
What Wall Street Thinks Caused The Bund Rout
The key feature of the past two days was neither the disappointing US GDP report, nor Japan's failure to boost QE, nor the Fed's muddled, confused statement but the huge rout in German "short of a lifetime" Bunds on close to record volume.
Number Of Companies Beating Revenue Estimates Hits Lowest Level In Two Years
Last Wednesday, some ostensibly serious people talked with some openly unserious people about “obsessive” corporate buybacks when Moody’s head of leveraged finance Christina Padgett, told CNBC that her “concern would be—if you think about how a company should position itself for further growth, you want to think of them as taking the cash they do have and using it to invest in something that generates growth.” By “growth,” Padgett was of course not talking about artificially growing EPS or...
The 7.5 Year Itch Starts Next Week
Stranger things have happened... Remember the stop-on-a-dime 666 lows of the S&P... We have extended an almost-perfect Fibonnaci 61.8% off the last high-to-low swing... (as The S&P remains shy of the 2134 resistance.) The S&P has recovered its inflation-adjusted peak... And The Nasdaq has recovered its bubble highs... Charts: Bloomberg h/t Brad Wishak
"Crash Boys" - Michael Lewis Slays The Regulators In The Sarao Scapegoating Debacle
The first question that arises from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s case against Navinder Singh Sarao is: Why did it take them five years to bring it? A guy living with his parents next to London's Heathrow Airport enters a lot of big, phony orders to sell U.S. stock market futures; the market promptly collapses on May 6, 2010; it takes five years for the army of U.S. financial regulators to work out that there might be some connection between the two events. It makes no sense.
Behold The Patsy: First Photograph Emerges Of The "Criminal Mastermind" Reponsible For The Flash Crash
Wall Street has found a new, unwitting source of humor: the CFTC. The reason, of course, is that according to the "regulator" the gullible investing public is expected to believe that one single person, operating out of a non-collocated, latency fortress in Hounslow (despite allegedly making $40 million over 5 years from spoofing)... ... is responsible for the May 2010 flash crash.
Full Scapegoat Retard: Trader Arrested For 2010 Flash Crash
Remember when the SEC, and specifically the agency's former lead HFT investigator Greg Berman, blamed the entire May 2010 Flash Crash on Waddell & Reed (and not HFT)? Well, it is time to change the entire narrative once again, in yet another attempt to 'restore" confidence in a rigged and manipulated market. The scapegoat? Navinder Singh Sarao.
Stop The Presses: Nobel-Prize Winning Economist Slams QE
Whether it is due to pervasive groupthink, a chronic lack of vision, the perpetuation of failed ideas, or just because the alternative casts grave doubts about the value of their very existence, conventional economists and their media lackeys have almost without exception been supportive of the Fed's "recovery" efforts, be it ZIRP or QE.
China's Day Trading Hordes Unmasked
There's been no shortage of coverage both here and elsewhere of China's world-beating, margin debt-fueled, self-feeding equity mania.
Citi Writes Iron Ore Price Obituary
As Wall Street struggles to explain last night’s trade data out of China which seemed to vividly illustrate the notion that the combination of the yuan’s dollar peg and generally weak demand can and will take a devastating toll on the country’s exports, and as iron ore does its best dead cat bounce impression on the “psychologically” (to use the words of one analyst who spoke to Reuters) important news that Australia’s fourth largest miner is suspending operations, Citi is out with a rather...
If Your Stocks Are Down, Who Ya Gonna Call?
There is a major new buyer in the gold market - Apple ... New Apple watch could use up to one third of total annual gold supply... Each watch to use up to two ounces of gold... ...
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