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Articles by Ilknur Zer
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Skip to main content The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, provides the nation with a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system. Sections Search Search Submit Button
How global risk perceptions affect economic growth
Jon Danielsson, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer 13 January 2022 The relationship between financial risk and economic growth is complex. This column finds that perceptions of high risk unambiguously harm growth, while perceived low risk has an initial positive impact, which eventually turns negative. Global risk has a stronger effect on growth than local risk, via its impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality, challenging monetary policy independence.
Low risk as a predictor of financial crises
Jon Danielsson, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer 26 March 2018 Reliable indicators of future financial crises are important for policymakers and practitioners. While most indicators consider an observation of high volatility as a warning signal, this column argues that such an alarm comes too late, arriving only once a crisis is already under way. A better warning is provided by low volatility, which is a reliable indication of an increased likelihood of a future crisis.
Volatility, financial crises and Minsky's hypothesis
Jon Danielsson, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer 02 October 2015 Does low volatility in financial markets mean that another financial crisis is more likely? And should we be worried when everything is OK? This column presents the first empirical results that find a strong validation of Minsky's hypothesis – obtained from 200 years of historical cross-sectional data – that low volatility increases the likelihood of a future financial crisis by increasing risk-taking.
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