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Articles by ING Economic
The War And Rates: Flashing Amber - Let's Avoid Red
Mar 21, 2026, 12:45 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Flow data show that core bonds are being bought by investors. More biased towards shorter tenors. But still there is no big avalanche of selling that is driving yields higher. As the conclusion to the war becomes ever more foggy, the high price of oil has become semi-structural in the market mindset.
Geopolitics Alone Isn't Enough To Lift Gold
Mar 21, 2026, 12:15 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Geopolitical tensions continue to underpin gold, but recent price action shows they are not enough on their own to drive a sustained rally. Macro factors, particularly real yields, the US dollar and interest rate expectations, remain the key constraints on further upside. Central banks continue to underpin gold demand, though the pace of buying has eased.
Opening the Rate-Hike Pandora’s Box Could Unleash Fresh Turmoil
Central banks are flirting with rate hikes, and markets have gone crazy. Memories of the 2022 inflation battle are clearly still fresh. Yet talking about rate rises is one thing, delivering them is quite another, and they could win the ‘wrong’ inflation fight. The bar is higher than markets think, says James Smith, as we look ahead to next week. Why rate hikes risk winning the wrong inflation fight This was the week when central banks gave an inch on rate hikes, and investors took a mile.
EUR/USD Can Still Reach 1.20
45,908.50 -113.6 -0.25% 6,586.70 -19.8 -0.30% 46,021.43 -203.72 -0.44% 6,606.49 -18.21 -0.27% 22,090.69 -61.73 -0.28% NameLastChg. %Vol. NVDA 178.56 -1.02% 170.97M MU 444.27 -3.78% 74.59M TSLA 380.30 -3.18% 67.08M AAPL 248.96 -0.39% 34.86M MSFT 389.02 -0.71% 25.14M SNDK 772.09 +2.44% 21.27M META 606.70 -1.46% 13.25M NameLastChg. %Vol.
Rates Spark: Pushed Higher by Hawkish Shifts
Front-end rates continue to push higher after a surprisingly hawkish BoE and reports that some at the ECB are already prepared to act in April. In EUR, longer rates are starting to struggle to keep up with front-end rates.
Transformative Or Overhyped? The Impact Of Weight-Loss Drugs On European Food Demand
Mar 20, 2026, 5:10 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The global market for GLP-1s will reach $100bn in 2027. Yet, the impact of these drugs on food demand is still limited in Europe. Around 2% of European adults are using GLP-1s, but that number will grow. Food makers face a gradual demand shift, giving them time to respond by changing products and marketing and investing in markets with less GLP-1 use.
FX Daily: Hawkish Hangover
Powell’s mildly hawkish hints on Wednesday were dwarfed yesterday by reports the ECB is considering a hike in April and the most dovish BoE member is openly discussing monetary tightening. The is suffering on the back of surprising overseas hawkishness, but also from some tentative optimism in energy markets USD: Fed Sounds Dovish Relative to ECB and BoE had another wild ride yesterday, with touching 119$/b before easing back closer to 107$/b.
Rates Spark: Pushed Higher By Hawkish Shifts
Mar 20, 2026, 4:50 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Front-end rates continue to push higher after a surprisingly hawkish BoE and reports that some at the ECB are already prepared to act in April. In EUR, longer rates are starting to struggle to keep up with front-end rates. But it does not look like a tipping point yet.
LNG Supply Disruptions Now a Long-Term Problem as Iran Hits Qatari Facilities
The global LNG market is set to be even tighter than expected through at least 2027, following Iranian attacks on Qatari facilities Energy – Qatari LNG Set for Multiyear Disruption European prices surged to an intraday high of EUR74/MWh yesterday. Though the front-month contract settled at EUR61.85/MWh, prices were still up 13% on the day. This comes as the market digests the impact from Iranian attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure.
Commodities: LNG Supply Disruptions Now A Long-Term Problem As Iran Hits Qatari Facilities
Mar 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary European natural gas prices surged to an intraday high of EUR74/MWh yesterday. Though the front-month contract settled at EUR61.85/MWh, prices were still up 13% on the day. ICE Brent eased from its intraday high of $119/bbl yesterday, with it trading back below $108/bbl.
Europe's Last Chance To Revive Its Pharmaceutical Innovation Power
Mar 19, 2026, 9:10 PM ET, , , , , Summary Europe’s pharmaceutical industry needs to make sure it doesn't become yesterday's news. Its biopharmaceutical innovation capacity has been gradually declining for decades, and the rapid ascent of China and President Trump's policies risk accelerating that decay. It can become a powerhouse once again, but it needs to act fast.
ECB Makes A Hawkish Pivot At Its March Meeting
Mar 19, 2026, 1:52 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Comments by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the press conference gave today’s meeting a more hawkish tilt. In this base case scenario, ECB staff treats the current oil price shock mainly as a one-off – and one that would hardly necessitate a monetary policy reaction. We reflected on the ECB’s reaction function to oil price shocks and how it has changed over time here.
AI Monthly: AI's Green Thumb Raises Bigger Questions For Agriculture
Mar 19, 2026, 11:01 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary If artificial intelligence can grow a tomato without human help, attention is turning to whether agriculture and construction are next in line for AI disruption. The list of tasks AI cannot cover – even in theory – remains extensive. Lacking a physical body, AI cannot perform manual labour such as installation, repairs, construction or transportation.
Hawkish Bank of England Propels Rate Hike Expectations
Mar 19, 2026, 10:45 AM ET Summary The Bank of England's unquestionably hawkish decision to hold rates has opened the door to future hikes if energy prices stay elevated. Yet we'd be careful in drawing clear signals from today's move, which also floated the possibility of faster rate cuts. Under ING's base case energy scenario, we think the most likely path forward is a prolonged pause.
Bank Of Japan Holds Rates And Offers No Signal About Its Next Move
Mar. 19, 2026 8:25 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.75%. Its economic outlook is broadly unchanged, but the central bank acknowledged the heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, Governor Ueda maintained a cautious stance regarding future policy decisions. The BoJ is unlikely to rush into raising rates. For now, we continue to expect a hike in June.
U.K. Jobs Report Shows The Bar To A BoE Rate Hike Is High
Mar. 19, 2026 6:36 AM ET, , , Summary The UK jobs market is considerably cooler than it was in 2022 when the last energy shock hit. While the latest report was a tad better than expected, vacancy rates are still well below pre-Covid levels in most sectors, private sector employment is flat-lining, and wage growth is falling. All of that suggests the bar to a Bank of England rate hike is high.
Rates Spark: ECB And BoE Meet Hawkish Markets
Mar. 19, 2026 6:40 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The ECB and BoE will meet amid a volatile situation in the Middle East, where recent headlines have pushed markets towards pricing more hawkish policy trajectories again. The Fed's own hawkish tinge last night did its part in pushing 10y UST yields above 4.25% and dragging 10y EUR swap to 3% again.
Rates Spark: ECB and BoE Meet Hawkish Markets
The ECB and BoE will meet amid a volatile situation in the Middle East, where recent headlines have pushed markets towards pricing more hawkish policy trajectories again. The Fed’s own hawkish tinge last night did its part in pushing above 4.25% and dragging 10y EUR swap to 3% again The situation in the Middle East remains highly volatile, as underscored by events over the past day. They turned a day that started on a calmer note into one marked by another spike in energy prices.
FX Daily: Central Bank ‘Ducking’ to Leave Oil in the Driver’s Seat
The Fed failed to offer any real guidance to the market, setting the script for other central banks to follow today. The result is that can stay firmly in the driver’s seat.
The Commodities Feed: Middle East Escalation Sends Energy Prices Higher
Supply risks continue to grow in energy markets amid an escalation in attacks on Persian Gulf energy infrastructure Energy – LNG Supply Risks Grow are surging amid an escalation in the Persian Gulf. ICE is up more than 4% this morning, breaking above $112/bbl. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices are set to open higher after further overnight escalation. Strikes on Iranian energy assets yesterday have Iran retaliating by striking energy infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf countries.
Commodities: Middle East Escalation Sends Energy Prices Higher
Mar. 19, 2026 12:30 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Oil prices are surging amid an escalation in the Persian Gulf. ICE Brent is up more than 4% this morning, breaking above $112/bbl. Iran’s retaliatory attacks on neighbours are more of a concern for the gas market. Gold fell to its lowest level in a month.
Fed Suggests Rate Cuts Remain More Likely Than Not
Mar. 18, 2026 7:35 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary There is nothing particularly surprising from the Federal Reserve outcome. A "no change" decision with a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with only Stephen Miran dissenting by voting for a 25bp cut.
Fed Suggests Rate Cuts Remain More Likely Than Not
The Federal Reserve held rates steady, but continues to project 25bp rate cuts in both 2026 and 2027 as they seek to optimise policy to deal with upside price risks from energy, set against a jobs market that has cooled and faces more headwinds. Fed Believes in the Productivity Boom There is nothing particularly surprising from the outcome. A "no change" decision with a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% with only Stephen Miran dissenting by voting for a 25bp cut.
Bank of Canada to Look Through Inflation Threat
The left its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. While acknowledging the prospect of higher energy costs pushing up inflation, it recognises there is excess supply in the economy with unemployment rising. This will help limit the pass-through to prices more broadly at a time when trade tensions continue to pose challenges for Canadian growth.
Bank of Canada To Look Through Inflation Threat
Mar. 18, 2026 11:30 AM ET, , , Summary The BoC left its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. While acknowledging the prospect of higher energy costs pushing up inflation, it recognises there is excess supply in the economy with unemployment rising. This will help limit the pass-through to prices more broadly at a time when trade tensions continue to pose challenges for Canadian growth.
Rates Spark: Some Calm Ahead Of The Fed Meeting
Mar. 18, 2026 5:30 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Oil prices are down but still above US$100/bbl. Markets still eye higher central bank rates or at least delayed rate cuts. The latter is also the signal we expect from the Fed tonight. Nonetheless, risk sentiment is holding up, and long-end rates have managed to ease lower, with the 10y UST yield below 4.2% and the Bund below 2.9%.
Some Calm Ahead of the Fed Meeting
are down but still above US$100/bbl. Markets still eye higher central bank rates or at least delayed rate cuts. The latter is also the signal we expect from the Fed tonight. Nonetheless, risk sentiment is holding up, and long-end rates have managed to ease lower, with the below 4.2% and the Bund below 2.9% Going into a busy central bank meeting schedule, the remains above US$100/bbl, keeping short-term inflation expectations elevated.
Dot Plot Revision Can Support US Dollar
We see a high risk that the Fed will revise its median Dot Plot to signal the next cut only in 2027. That could influence markets in a meeting where caution could be the name of the game, given the highly volatile situation. We see upside risks for the .
Brent Oil Consolidates Above $100 as Disruptions Persist
With no sign of de-escalation in the Middle East, appears to have found a floor just above $100/bbl Energy – Jet Fuel Market Continues to Scream Growing Tightness ICE Brent has now settled above $100/bbl for four consecutive days. With no sign of de-escalation in the Middle East, the market continues to consolidate above this key level. Oil flows remain largely constrained, despite hopes that Iran might allow additional tankers to move through the Strait of Hormuz to select countries.
Commodities: Brent Consolidates Above $100 As Disruptions Persist
Mar. 18, 2026 12:25 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary ICE Brent has now settled above $100/bbl for four consecutive days. With no sign of de-escalation in the Middle East, the market continues to consolidate above this key level. Gold is trading in a narrow range as the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran drags into a third week.
FX Outlook: First War-driven Hike in the Books
The RBA is the first G10 central bank to deliver a rate hike on the back of rising energy prices, although is struggling to find its shine after an equity-driven correction.
Gulf Smelter Cuts Tighten Aluminum Outlook
Mar. 17, 2026 4:54 AM ET, , , Summary Recent output cuts at Alba and Qatalum underscore the aluminium market’s exposure to disruptions in the Persian Gulf. We have updated our aluminium scenarios to align with our latest oil market outlook while incorporating early signs of supply curtailments. Whether the market moves beyond our base case will largely depend on how quickly shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz ease.
What Our New Energy Price Scenarios Mean For Markets
Mar. 17, 2026 4:32 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Our baseline continues to assume rate cuts by the Fed and no hikes by the ECB. USD and EUR rates could end the year lower as the growth outlook worsens, and we still expect a return to 1.20 in EUR/USD this year.
Rates Outlook: The Impact Is No Longer Transitory
In our updated scenarios, we see remaining elevated for longer in our base case, which could eventually weigh on growth and thus rates. In a tail risk scenario whereby the full supply disruption lasts until May, we even pencil in an ECB hike.
Rates Spark: The Impact Is No Longer Transitory
Mar. 16, 2026 8:55 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary In our updated scenarios we see oil prices remaining elevated for longer in our base case, which could eventually weigh on growth and thus rates. In a tail risk scenario whereby the full supply disruption lasts until May, we even pencil in an ECB hike. But also, in this scenario, we end the year with lower rates.
Gulf Smelter Cuts Tighten Aluminium Outlook
Recent output cuts at Alba and Qatalum underscore the aluminium market’s exposure to disruptions in the Persian Gulf. We have updated our aluminium scenarios to align with our latest oil market outlook while incorporating early signs of supply curtailments. In our recent report, we highlighted how exposed aluminium markets are to disruptions in the Gulf and warned that an escalating conflict in the Middle East could push prices above $4,000/t under a severe disruption scenario.
Energy Markets Brace For A Prolonged Supply Disruption
Mar 16, 2026, 11:32 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary There are few signs of de-escalation or a resumption in energy flows from the Persian Gulf. The market is having to reprice the duration of ongoing supply disruptions. We have updated our scenarios for oil and gas markets.
How Rising Energy Prices Will Impact European Sectors
Mar. 16, 2026 10:17 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary High energy prices have hit European sectors such as aviation, shipping, and chemicals the hardest. However, the 2022 energy crisis led to reduced oil and gas dependence, and firms are now better equipped to manage price hikes. As profit margins are often thin and many sectors are energy-intensive, firms must closely monitor energy prices.
China Beats Dreary Expectations, But More Work Needed To Support Growth
Mar. 16, 2026 5:07 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary China's first batch of hard economic activity data for 2026 beat the rather downbeat forecasts. But there's still work to be done to support the domestic economy and achieve this year's growth targets - especially as inflation risks are picking up. All eyes remain on the policy rollout in China in the months ahead and whether this will be sufficient to achieve the goals.
FX Outlook: Waiting for the Central Bank Response
There has been no improvement in the Middle East crisis over the weekend. President Trump’s attempt to build a naval coalition to re-open the Strait of Hormuz looks like an admission that this war will not reach a swift conclusion. Away from the Middle East, the focus will be on how central bankers respond to this energy shock. We expect the to stay bid USD: Little Improvement The weekend brought little respite to the war in the Middle East.
Commodities: Brent Remains Above $100/Bbl As Iran Conflict Develops
Mar. 16, 2026 4:03 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary US strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island raise further supply risks. For now, though, energy infrastructure on the island remains untouched. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has initiated a phased production shutdown, citing ongoing supply and transit disruptions stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent Remains Above $100 as Iran Conflict Develops
US strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island raise further supply risks. For now, though, energy infrastructure on the island remains untouched Energy- Emergency Oil Releases Start Oil prices opened stronger this morning, with ICE trading as high as $106.50/bbl. US strikes over the weekend on Kharg Island raised supply concerns, as most of Iran’s oil exports pass through it. However, strikes appear to have targeted military infrastructure rather than energy infrastructure.
Fed to Delay Rate Cuts as War Clouds the Outlook
The Middle East conflict will push up prices, but it will also likely harm US growth and job prospects. We see this as a Fed rate-cut delayed rather than removed story, unlike 2022 when a demand shock, combined with a supply shock, fuelled inflation and led to rate hikes. Rising Inflation Constrains the Fed The outlook for policy changes has been upended by events in the Middle East. Financial markets have swung from anticipating two 25bp this year to now pricing in barely one.
Fed To Delay Rate Cuts As War Clouds The Outlook
Mar. 13, 2026 2:34 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The Middle East conflict will push up prices, but it will also likely harm US growth and job prospects. We see this as a Fed rate cut delayed rather than removed story, unlike 2022, when a demand shock, combined with a supply shock, fuelled inflation and led to rate hikes.
Pharma's Godfather Moment: Pulled Back Into Tariff Uncertainty
Mar. 13, 2026 10:35 AM ET, , , , , Summary The US Supreme Court invalidated President Trump’s use of emergency authority to impose tariffs. Yet, we believe that Most Favored Nation deals with pharmaceutical companies will hold, although additional US investments could be postponed until after the current transition period. As companies can use CDMO capacity to localise their manufacturing, this is why we expect high single-digit CDMO growth until 2030.
Italian Industrial Production Started 2026 On A Soft Footing
Summary Production started the year on a soft footing, even before the Middle East war began. Prospects for the rest of the year will crucially depend on how energy market tensions – and their supply and demand effects – evolve. After an unexpectedly strong 0.3% quarterly GDP rise in late 2025, we expect growth to cool in the first quarter of 2026.
Rethinking Transatlantic Power: Why Trade Dependencies Cut Both Ways
Mar. 13, 2026 9:20 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The transatlantic debate often frames Europe as overly dependent on the United States, often ignoring the fact that Europe also holds some important cards. A topic that has not been discussed in public so far and which would be a clear test case for European solidarity if the ACI was ever activated.
Why The Bar Is High For The Bank of England To Hike Rates
Mar. 13, 2026 9:00 AM ET, , , Summary We expect the Bank of England to keep rates on hold at its 19 March meeting. Financial markets are increasingly pricing a rate hike this year. But the economy looks very different to when the 2022 energy shock arrived. We think rate cuts are still more likely than hikes, though we could be in for a long pause should energy disruption linger.
Eurozone Industrial Outlook Thrown Into Uncertainty As Energy Woes Return
Mar. 13, 2026 8:50 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Manufacturing optimism in the eurozone is fading as industrial production falls to its lowest level since 2024 in January. The Middle East conflict has renewed output risks, especially for energy-intensive sectors. Stronger production hopes hinge on the expectation that increased public investment in defence and infrastructure will boost manufacturing output.
South Korea's Gasoline Price Cap Should Anchor CPI Inflation Near 2%
Mar. 13, 2026 8:36 AM ET, , Summary South Korea’s government imposed a maximum price cap on oil, rolling back gasoline prices to levels from early last week. It's likely to keep consumer price index inflation anchored near 2%. The government is expected to fund these measures by drafting an extra budget. We believe that the Bank of Korea will stand pat for now. Inflation is expected to rise, but with government support, the increase should be limited.
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