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Articles by Isaac Kfir
Global Terrorism Takes a New Turn: Sahel is Impacted
Editor’s Note: We’re happy to publish this article from the Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP), one of our partner organizations, particularly as it comes at a time of renewed concern over terrorist attacks of the kind recently suffered in Israel, with five bystanders killed by a Palestinian gunman in a suburb of Tel Aviv.
Algorithms, the Search for Transcendence and Online Radicalisation
Algorithms, the Search for Transcendence and Online Radicalisation Algorithms, the Search for Transcendence and Online Radicalisation 14th October 2021 Isaac Kfir 14th October 2021 In Insights Research on online radicalisation and recruitment has become increasingly sophisticated, with scholars looking at the processes, pathways, and triggers that lead an individual to engage in anti-social behaviour. Platforms have responded to the research and specific events with some action.
The Taliban 2.0 - Learning from the past
What lessons have the Taliban learned from years of regional instability? Dr Isaac Kfir, renowned counter-terrorism expert, analyses the modern Taliban. What lessons have the Taliban learned from years of regional instability? Dr Isaac Kfir, renowned counter-terrorism expert, analyses the modern Taliban. Until his mysterious death in November 1989 Abdullah Yusuf Azzam was the doyen of revolutionary jihadism.
Op-Ed: Avoiding previous mistakes in counter-terrorism - Why hard power is not a solution to the Salafi-jihadi crisis in sub-Saharan Africa
Counter-terrorism expert Isaac Kfir analyses the current Salafist insurgency in sub-Saharan Africa, and the counterinsurgency methods to combat this ongoing threat. Counter-terrorism expert Isaac Kfir analyses the current Salafist insurgency in sub-Saharan Africa, and the counterinsurgency methods to combat this ongoing threat. In March 2005, Al-Quds Al-Arabi published extracts from Muhammad Ibrahim Makkawi, better known as Sayf al-Adel’s al-Qaeda’s Strategy to the Year 2020.
Washington should rely in Australia to lead in the South Pacific
The outlook of totalitarianism today is vastly diverse compared to the early tomid-20th century. Be it the draconian rule of Joseph Stalin commandeering the Communist party or the notorious Nazi campaign under Adolf Hitler, the monochromatic image of an authoritarian mentality no longer exists in modern reality.
Addressing the infodemic should be the key priority of a Biden administration
Joe Biden’s victory Last November came at a critical point during the Brexit negotiations between The European Union and the United Kingdom. There has been a lot of speculation as to whether a change in the American presidency will substantially affect the talks between Europe and Britain. Realistically speaking, the effect the Democrats’ victory in the US will have, at least on Brexit talks before the end of this year, will be minimal.
Exploring the Link Between Uncertainty, Ahistoricism and Algorithms
Exploring the Link Between Uncertainty, Ahistoricism and Algorithms Exploring the Link Between Uncertainty, Ahistoricism and Algorithms 30th November 2020 Isaac Kfir 30th November 2020 In Insights We are living in a time of extreme uncertainty. Nothing seems real because any fact is contestable. There are several reasons for the growing uncertainty. The first is the omnipresence of social media platforms and their algorithmic engines.
How Prime Minister Abiy looking to change Ethiopia
Reportedly, while speaking with Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump suggested Egypt could bomb the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The comment comes several months after President Trump ordered the State Department to cut around $100 million of US military aid to Ethiopia. Such attitudes will harm US interests in the region. Over the last few months, Prime minister Abiy has faced several challenges that could have undermined his reputation and weakened Ethiopia.
SADC, Zimbabwe and Sanctions
Emmerson Mnangagwa, President of Zimbabwe. Copyright by World Economic Forum / Sikarin Thanachaiary Reports suggest the South Africa Development Community (SADC) is growing increasingly impatient with President Mnangagwa’s willingness to impose repressive measures. The speculation emerged in part because President Chakwera, the incoming SADC chair had left Zimbabwe after two days, even though he was meant to spend three days in the country.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the failure of a transactional foreign policy
On August 27, Foreign Policy reported that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was considering suspending $130 million worth of US aid to Ethiopia. Within less than a week, the US on the orders of President Trump suspended some of the aid, in the hope that such action would cajole Addis Ababa to reach an agreement over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) with Egypt. The view from Washington DC is that they want an agreement reached before Ethiopia continues to fill the dam.
Counterterrorism Yearbook 2020
30 March 2020 Counterterrorism Yearbook 2020 By Isaac Kfir and John Coyne This year’s Counterterrorism Yearbook draws upon 19 contributing authors, each a renowned thought leader in their field, to promote practical counterterrorism solutions by reviewing a global range of terrorism developments and counterterrorism responses. ASIO’s Director General, Mike Burgess commends the publication for its ‘valuable contribution to the public discourse on counterterrorism’.
EU and Japan push back against Belt and Road
EU and Japan push back against Belt and Road In September, Japan and the EU launched the EU–Japan Partnership on Sustainable Connectivity and Quality Infrastructure, partly in response to escalating tensions between the United States and China over trade. This significant agreement builds on the 2015 EU–Japan Connectivity Partnership, the 2017 EU–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement and the 2018 Strategic Partnership Agreement.
How Al-Baghdadi's Death Will Change the Terrorism of Tomorrow
Key point: The death of the leader of ISIS is a blow but not one that will put an end to terrorism for good. On 27 October, President Donald Trump announced that on the previous night US special forces had raided a compound in Barisha, Idlib Province, Syria. In the house was Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who detonated a suicide vest to avoid capture, killing himself and three of his children. It seems that Idlib has become a centre for many Salafi-jihadists.
Terrorism Landscape Set to Shift in the Wake of Al-Baghdadi’s Death | RealClearDefense
On 27 October, President Donald Trump announced that on the previous night U.S. special forces had raided a compound in Barisha, Idlib Province, Syria. In the house was Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who detonated a suicide vest to avoid capture, killing himself and three of his children. It seems that Idlib has become a centre for many Salafi-jihadists.
Is China taking advantage of the Syrian conflict?
@isaac_kfir A Syrian man drives a motorcycle past destroyed buildings in the town of Ariha, in the south of Syria's Idlib province, on August 2, 2019. Air strikes stopped in Syria's Idlib on August 2 after the government announced it had agreed a truce following weeks of deadly bombardment of the rebel-held region, monitors said. Omar HAJ KADOUR / AFP BEJING is showing an increased interest in the Syrian conflict and the possibility of peace.
Australia’s citizenship-stripping legislation may be doing more harm than good
Australia’s citizenship-stripping legislation may be doing more harm than good Between December 2015 and February 2019, 12 Australian dual citizens were stripped of their citizenship under the Australian Citizenship Act 2007 because of their involvement with terror groups. As the provisions of the act are automatically applied, many more Australian dual citizens may be affected.
The Post-Caliphate Salafi-Jihadi Environment
My latest Strategic Insights paper, provides an overview of the post-caliphate Salafi-jihadi environment, focusing on the franchising strategy of al-Qaeda and Islamic State. It finds that the threat is now less ‘top-down’ than ‘bottom-up’ and provides three sets of recommendations on how Australia should adjust its counterterrorism strategy in the face of a changing environment.
Why we need a rethink of Australia’s citizenship revocation law
Why we need a rethink of Australia’s citizenship revocation law The logic behind Australia’s terrorism-related loss-of-citizenship provisions is meant to be brilliantly simple: if a person travels overseas to be a foreign fighter, and is a dual citizen, then under certain circumstances their Australian citizenship can be rescinded. Three key arguments have been provided to defend the measure. First, citizenship revocation punishes those who have travelled to Iraq and Syria.
Protecting critical national infrastructure in an era of IT and OT convergence
Research for this report suggests several approaches to improve security as a result of IT–OT convergence. Setting expectations Effective security starts with leadership. Boards need to provide strong awareness and sponsorship, setting and communicating their risk appetite in a way that drives their approach to IT–OT convergence.
The Christchurch Call: More is required to counter violent extremism online
@isaac_kfir A Muslim man (R) and another local perform a traditional Maori 'hongi' greeting, a touching of noses, after Muslims prayed in front of the Al Noor mosque while being protected by locals, following a mass haka in Christchurch on March 20, 2019, five days after the twin mosque shootings claimed the lives of 50 people.
Between Japan and Southeast Asia: Australia and US-China economic rivalry
Please enable javascript to access the full functionality of this site report Between Japan and Southeast Asia: Australia and US-China economic rivalry Breadcrumb Home Between Japan and Southeast Asia: Australia and US-China economic rivalry 28 June 2019 Between Japan and Southeast Asia: Australia and US-China economic rivalry By Malcolm Cook Recently, the economic front of US–China major-power rivalry has deepened and expanded beyond the legalistic confines of the World Trade Organization...
Australia’s second sea: Facing our multipolar future in the Indian Ocean
Please enable javascript to access the full functionality of this site report Australia’s second sea: Facing our multipolar future in the Indian Ocean Breadcrumb Home Australia’s second sea: Facing our multipolar future in the Indian Ocean 19 March 2019 Australia’s second sea: Facing our multipolar future in the Indian Ocean By David Brewster This report argues that Australia needs a comprehensive strategy for the Indian Ocean that articulates our regional objectives and outlines a...
Top US China specialist Peter Mattis announced as ASPI distinguished fellow
Please enable javascript to access the full functionality of this site news Top US China specialist Peter Mattis announced as ASPI distinguished fellow Breadcrumb Home Top US China specialist Peter Mattis announced as ASPI distinguished fellow 18 Mar 2019 Top US China specialist Peter Mattis announced as ASPI distinguished fellow By Renee Jones The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) is pleased to announce Peter Mattis – Research Fellow in China Studies at the Victims of Communism...
The Terror–Cyber–Crime Nexus and Terrorists’ Innovation | RealClearDefense
Despite herculean efforts, countering terrorist financing has proven to be hard. The reasons for that include the complexity of the international financial system, some states’ reluctance to enforce existing measures, and terrorist groups’ ability to innovate and diversify to obtain new sources of funds and hide what they have.
Israel’s Approach to Counterterrorism | RealClearDefense
The Israeli approach to counterterrorism (CT) is unique because terrorism there is ever-present and takes many forms; it may occur from within Israel, it may take place from Palestinian territories, it may come from across the border or from further afield. The attack may be a one-off suicide bombing or a knife or car rampage or the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier. The terrorists themselves are different too in that they may be Arab, Palestinian, Arab-Israeli or even Japanese.
Understanding what drives terror
Defeating groups such as al-Qaeda (AQ) and Daesh cannot be done through military means alone, but will require a much more detailed understanding of the ideology and theology driving them and encouraging their recruits. A deeper understanding of those groups’ belief systems will also help us understand why, despite the removal of Daesh’s ‘caliphate’ in Iraq and Syria, these groups will not be defeated overnight.
Why Bangladesh makes an attractive target for Islamic State, al-Qaeda
A man rides a trishaw on the street in Dhaka, Bangladesh on 15 December, 2017. 36 percent of the country’s urban population live in Dhaka, making it the world’s most crowded city.
Al-Qaeda 3.0: turning to face the near enemy
After the deaths of Osama bin Laden and several other leaders in 2011 and 2012, followed by the rise of Islamic State, many considered al-Qaeda ‘a spent force’. But in an important brief, (with an expanded version for the Lowy Institute), leading terrorism scholar Bruce Hoffman argues that Ayman al-Zawahiri has used the past seven years to rebuild al-Qaeda.
Al Qaeda 3.0: Turning to Face the Near Enemy
After the deaths of Osama bin Laden and several other leaders in 2011 and 2012, followed by the rise of Islamic State, many considered al-Qaeda ‘a spent force’. But in an important brief, (with an expanded version for the Lowy Institute), leading terrorism scholar Bruce Hoffman argues that Ayman al-Zawahiri has used the past seven years to rebuild al-Qaeda.
Iraq As a ‘Client State’ of Iran | RealClearDefense
Iraq is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in May. At least 28 Iraqi political parties associated with paramilitaries that fought Islamic State (IS) have registered to run candidates. Many of these parties, like their ‘parent’ militias, have close ties to Tehran. Most of these militias formed after IS captured Mosul. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s senior Shiite cleric, issued a fatwa proclaiming that fighting against IS was ‘a sacred defence’.
Counterterrorism Yearbook 2018 | Australian Strategic Policy Institute
The Counter Terrorism Yearbook is ASPI’s annual flagship publication curated by the Counter Terrorism Policy Centre, now in its second year of publication. It is a comprehensive resource for academics and policymakers to build on their knowledge of counterterrorism developments in countries and regions around world.
What Does Afrin Mean for International Security? | RealClearDefense
On 20 January, the Turkish armed forces began Operation Olive Branch in Afrin, an area of Syria controlled by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), one of the key opposition groups to the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The operation has deep implications for regional and international security, as it affects Turkey, Syria, the Kurds and the international community in different ways.
Yemen: War Without End? | RealClearDefense
On 4 December, Houthi rebels in Yemen killed former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. A few days earlier, Saleh had ended his three-year-old alliance with the Houthis and sought to re-establish relations with Saudi Arabia. Saleh’s death is bound to complicate the ongoing crisis in Yemen. The country is already experiencing the ‘worst humanitarian catastrophe in the world’ with an estimated 7 million people facing severe food shortages and starvation.
Somalia’s 9/11 | RealClearDefense
On 12 October, Mogadishu was rocked by a powerful bomb that killed more than 320 people and injured around 500. Security officials attribute the bombing to al-Shabaab (‘the youth’), although the group has yet to claim responsibility. The bombing involved two vehicles: a truck that was packed with 350 kilograms of homemade and military-grade explosives and a minivan.
Hitting the sweet spot: public safety, national security and civil liberties
The 5 October special meeting of the Council of Australian Governments focused on security and counterterrorism. Premiers and chief ministers agreed to establish the National Facial Biometric Matching Capability and signed the Intergovernmental Agreement on Identity Matching Services. They discussed new criminal offences for terrorism and allowing police to detain people for 14 days without charge, which is currently possible only in New South Wales.
The Role of Women in Islamic State-led Terrorism | RealClearDefense
In August, a Jakarta court jailed 28-year-old Dian Yulia Novi for seven-and-a-half years for plotting to carry out a suicide attack outside the Presidential Palace during the changing of the guard, an event that is popular with tourists and locals. Novi, who is currently pregnant, admitted to the plot so the three judges did not heed the prosecution call for a 10 year sentence.
Australia Plans More Barriers in Public Spaces After Attacks in Spain (Published 2017)
SYDNEY, Australia — A few days after the vehicle attacks in Spain that killed 14 people, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of Australia has unveiled a counterterrorism strategy to protect crowded public spaces. The plan calls for more barriers in busy pedestrian areas to prevent vehicles from entering. The barriers could include posts, steps and even works of art, Mr. Turnbull said on Sunday. Businesses will also be asked to address security risks by working with the police.
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