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* The Q2 Japan Tankan survey painted a resilient picture and improved capex outlook. This comes as US-Japan trade negotiations continue, with US President Trump expressing frustration with the process. By Jonathan Cavenagh * After a terrible H1 2025 for the USD, we have consolidated somewhat in the first trading session of H2. Yen is a little firmer, aided by the Tankan. US back end Tsy yields continue to track lower.
Who Gains From China’s Pain? Mostly Vietnam, Mexico and Eurozone Tariffs have reduced imports into the United States from China and reversed (at least temporarily) a decades-long expansion of the U.S. trade deficit with that country (Figure 1). Yet the trade war has not reduced total imports nor has it made a dent in the overall trade deficit (Figure 2). In fact, since the start of 2017, the trade deficit has widened 16.8%.
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