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Articles by Ivan Brian
BOJ: Imports, exports, wages, inflation, PPI and USD/JPY
To replicate the vital Himino speech to wages and prices, Imports, Exports, PPI and USD/JPY levels are offered for January to October 2023. Monthly Exports for 2023 dropped by -0.01% or 10%. -2.1 to 0.07 = -300.00%. The decrease was -133.33 %. Yearly Exports 9.0 to 2.3 = 0.21 or 21%. 9.0 to 2.4 = 3759%. The decrease was -73.33%. Monthly to yearly dropped -44.00%. Monthly Imports -4.4 to 2.3 = -0.10%. And 9.0 to 2.3 = -191.30%. The decrease was -152.27% Yearly Imports = 17.0 to -11.7 or -1.98%.
S&P 500 (SPX) Pronóstico 2023: Una visión opuesta sobre cómo reaccionarán los mercados bursátiles ante el retraso de la recesión
La opinión generalizada en Wall Street es que una recesión afectará al SPX y a las acciones en el primer semestre de 2023. El consenso suele ser erróneo, si nos remontamos a la evolución histórica de los mercados bursátiles. Nuestra previsión para el S&P 500 en 2023 es opuesta, basada en el retraso de la recesión estadounidense. La ampliación del control de la curva de rendimiento por parte del Banco de Japón se traduce en una subida de las tasas de interés también para Estados Unidos.
Wall Street Hoy (S&P 500) (Nasdaq): Todas las miradas puestas en el PCE del viernes mientras los minoristas decepcionan
Esto es lo que necesita saber para operar hoy martes 21 de febrero: Los mercados de renta variable siguen bajo presión a pesar de la semana reducida por el Día del Presidente. Los rumores de una subida de 50 puntos básicos en marzo siguen creciendo a medida que aumentan los rendimientos de los bonos. Las minutas de la reunión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia muestran que otro banco central se vuelve pesimista, y los rendimientos de los bonos siguen subiendo en todo el mundo.
Wall Street Hoy (S&P 500): Aversión al riesgo, fin de semana largo para ver algún cierre de posiciones
Esto es lo que debe saber para operar hoy viernes 17 de febrero: Los mercados de acciones están a la defensiva tras los nuevos datos y los comentarios de línea dura de los bancos centrales del jueves. El rendimiento de los bonos continuó subiendo y ya ha subido casi 50 puntos básicos en las últimas dos semanas. Este viernes se han publicado pocos datos económicos, pero algunos oradores de la Fed harán acto de presencia.
Wall Street Hoy (S&P 500) (Nasdaq): Todas las miradas puestas en Powell tras el potente informe de empleo
Esto es lo que hay que saber para operar hoy martes 7 de febrero: Los mercados están adoptando un tono más tranquilo después de la conmoción originada por las Nóminas no Agrícolas de la semana pasada, cuyo informe de empleo todavía se está digiriendo. Con la intervención del presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell, hoy martes, los inversores se preparan para un mensaje más de línea dura.
S&P 500 (SPX) Pronóstico: A la espera del comunicado de la Fed y de la rueda de prensa de Powell
Llega el día de la Fed, con una decisión que probablemente será de 25 puntos básicos. La conferencia de prensa será el principal foco de atención para los mercados. Los mercados siguen esperando un giro de la Fed en la segunda mitad del año. Mercados de acciones en calma antes de la decisión de la Fed de hoy. Las bolsas se recuperaron el martes tras la débil sesión del lunes.
Mercado nervioso antes de una semana enorme de ganancias y el anuncio de la Fed
Esto es lo que necesita saber para operar hoy lunes 30 de enero: Los mercados están bastante tranquilos esta mañana, mientras tenemos mucho que hacer esta semana. Durante la noche, las acciones asiáticas se mostraron débiles, mientras la aversión al riesgo fue el tema principal. El Hang Seng cerró con una caída cercana al 3%, mientras que el Nikkei se mantuvo plano.
Is the current stock market rally sustainable?
Wall Street insiders continue to debate conflicting economic data and a possible earnings recession ahead. Data and earnings so far actually offer convincing evidence to support both sides of the arguments which is making it tough for either the bulls or the bears to gain an upper hand. Central banks Bulls believe an end or a pause in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking campaign would greatly reduce - if not eliminate - the risks of both an economic and earnings recession.
Wall Street Hoy (S&P 500) (Nasdaq): Microsoft baja y Tesla presenta ganancias
Esto es lo que hay que saber para operar hoy miércoles 25 de enero: Microsoft (MSFT) ha causado algunos problemas tanto a los inversores como a los usuarios esta mañana. Una interrupción en la nube que afectó a miles de usuarios no hizo más que agravar los problemas relacionados con las ganancias. Los valores de MSFT se dispararon después de que los beneficios superaran las estimaciones, pero rápidamente retrocedieron durante una conferencia telefónica poco alentadora.
S&P 500 (SPX) Pronóstico: Repunta ante la previsión de fuertes beneficios y la pausa de la Fed
La renta variable sube gracias a las esperanzas de una pausa de la Fed, ¡otra vez! También se espera que la temporada de resultados mantenga contentos a los alcistas. El dinero que entra por el impulso podría sumarse al rally si el S&P 500 supera los 4.100 puntos. Otro día en 2023 y otro rally. Hasta ahora, la renta variable se está posicionando para un escenario favorable en el que los tipos de la Fed bajen y la economía evite lo peor de una recesión.
Have stocks run too far, too fast?
Stocks explode up and thru the trendline. 2022 losers are presenting as great opportunities. The FED remains in lockdown mode. OPEC+ expected to hold the line – Oil steady at $82/barrel. Try the Sea Bass w/Bacon & Leeks.
Wall Street Hoy (S&P 500) (Nasdaq): Netflix gana suscriptores, pero las acciones siguen teniendo problemas
Esto es lo que debe saber para operar hoy viernes 20 de enero: Los mercados de acciones en EE.UU. parecen listos para una apertura mixta con futuros planos para el S&P 500 y el Dow Jones, pero al alza para el Nasdaq Composite. Esto es algo sorprendente, dado que los rendimientos se dispararon el jueves a medida que los datos de empleo parecían sólidos.
S&P 500 (SPX) Pronóstico: Se mantiene mixto con riesgos a la baja
Las acciones siguen bajo presión a medida que se acumulan los nubarrones económicos. Netflix gana suscriptores pero informa de un beneficio por acción muy inferior al esperado. Google recortará hasta 12.000 empleos de su plantilla. El mercado de acciones parece preparado para una breve recuperación el viernes, pero los nubarrones generales permanecen en el horizonte. Los valores han girado a la baja y terminaron el jueves en rojo en los principales índices.
S&P 500 (SPX) Pronóstico: 4.000 razones para esperar a los resultados
Los mercados de renta variable estadounidenses regresan tras un largo fin de semana. Semana de grandes ganancias, con Netflix a finales de esta semana. Los grandes niveles técnicos podrían frenar las ganancias. El mercado de renta variable regresa tras un largo fin de semana, y los primeros datos económicos parecen prometedores. En Europa se publicaron unos sólidos datos del ZEW alemán, y China también mostró que su economía va en la dirección correcta.
Wake Up Wall Street (SPY) (QQQ): Markets remain calm as year-end in focus
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, December 21: The shortest day of the year for those of us in the northern hemisphere and equity markets took the shortcut home as well with little moves on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) provided some early excitement but by the close, equity markets were little changed on Tuesday. The situation looks a little more promising on Wednesday morning as European equities move higher on the back of US Treasury bond yields taking things down a notch or two.
S&P 500 (SPX) falls as hawks circle Santa's rally sleigh
Stocks fall as central banks turn hawkish and risk assets move lower. Nasdaq falls over 3%, while S&P and Dow fall over 2%. ECB adds to risk assets woes with an uber-hawk move. The S&P 500 struggled along with other indices on Thursday as the penny dropped that central banks are not going to reduce their rate hikes. The ECB was notably hawkish, and rumours circulated that members wanted a 75bps hike but Lagarde had to offer a series of 50bps hikes to get an agreement.
Wake Up Wall Street (SPY) (QQQ): Santa reindeers eaten by bears as option expiry awaits
Here is what you need to know on Friday, December 16: We made it to the end of the week and it was certainly a lively one. We had five major central bank decisions with 4 opting for 50bps hikes and only the Norges Bank (Norway) standing out with its 25bps hike. All central banks were hawkish, with the European Central Bank (ECB) notably so. That has not provided much for risk bulls to grab onto, and the penny finally dropped on Thursday with equity indices collapsing.
S&P 500 (SPX) gets ready for Fed breakout
Equity markets bounce on CPI data but fail to hold gains. Fed decision looms large as risk is reduced beforehand. Fed expected to unveil a higher dot plot. Equity markets surged on another tame CPI print on Tuesday before booking profits and taking chips off the table ahead of the Fed interest rate announcement today. The CPI print was more good news, and the US Dollar weakened. The NASDAQ initially rallied 4% but gave up nearly all those gains to finish 1% higher. It was the top index performer.
Wake Up Wall Street (SPY) (QQQ): All on hold for the Fed
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, December 14: Equity markets rallied on Tuesday as another tame CPI print appeared to enthuse the bulls. The move quickly faded, however, with the Fed decision looming large. We have to wait until later to get it, so we expect a fairly lame opening on Wall Street and limited moves before Powell takes to the pulpit. Already European indices are flat, and Wall Street futures are similarly showing no sign of actually moving.
S&P 500 (SPX) waits for CPI to make its move
Equities close strongly on Monday ahead of Tuesday's CPI. JPMorgan's strategy appears to fuel the bulls. CPI is expected to show signs of peak inflation. The equity market recovered on Monday despite some obvious headwinds. Some strategists are putting the recovery down to oil stocks, which indeed moved higher as oil recovered. However, oil recovering is inflationary and so not exactly a good look for risk assets. This is a case of fitting the story to the outcome.
S&P 500 (SPX) gets ready for a big week
Equities close lower on Friday to cap a dull week. Monday is set to be the calm before the data storm. Tuesday has CPI, Wednesday has FOMC, and also we have BOE and ECB announcements. Equities look weaker this morning as the handover from Asia was a weak one. The Nikkei was down a modest 0.2%, but the Hang Seng fell 2.2%. Strong inflation data from Japan held markets in check there with China being hit on reports the US asked Japan to join its ban on Chinese chip exports.
Wake Up Wall Street (SPX) (QQQ): PPI to blip, but then markets to slip back to slumber before next week
Here is what you need to know on Friday, December 9: Equity markets recovered ground on Thursday on the back of no news. That may be a bit disingenuous to say, but really this week has been one of waiting before next week's volcano. Markets were due a bounce on Thursday after five straight days of losses and some position closing ahead of the weekend and today's PPI. At least the PPI will provide some form of catalyst, but it is likely to be shortlived.
S&P 500 (SPX) recover as we wait for PPI, Fed
Equities recover on Thursday despite yields rising. Oil continues to suffer despite supply fears. PPI is the highlight today, but risk is limited before next week. Equities continued their rangebound trade on Thursday as markets recovered after five straight days of losses. Energy continued to slide on the oil price with XLE in the red and XOP (oil and gas producers) down over 2%. Technology and semiconductors were the best-performing sectors of the day.
Wake Up Wall Street (SPY) (QQQ): Risk-off trade may fade, but limited catalysts exist until next week
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, December 7: Equity markets gave up more ground on Tuesday as investors continued to brace themselves for higher rates from the Fed. While the 50bps hike next week is a done deal, the dot plot is not, and traders are starting to worry that maybe the Fed was telling the truth after all and rates are going higher for longer. That saw oil take a serious leg lower on Tuesday, hitting energy stocks while tech also was hit hard by higher rate projections.
Wake Up Wall Street (SPX) (QQQ): More sideways trading likely before FOMC clarity
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, December 6: ISM fallout continued into Asia, but equities remain underpinned by more China reopening news. However, the US Dollar held most of its gains, and the bond market continues to reprice. On Tuesday morning oil remains subdued after the sharp fall off on Monday. Overall, pricing pressure remains, but the tanker pile-up in Turkey surely will cap the declines for now.
Week Ahead on Wall Street (SPY) (QQQ): Thanksgiving expected to see markets calm on shortened week
Equity markets trade mostly higher but calm for past week. Thanksgiving week is shortened, so more subdued volatility is expected. US Dollar attempts recovery, while oil finally breaks lower. Last week saw relative calm pervade markets after the surge from the lower than expected CPI print the week before. However, the main themes remained largely in place despite some stumbling blocks.
S&P 500 (SPX) has 4,000 reasons to fall
S&P 500 falls on Wednesday as Fed members speak hawkishly. Bond yields rise at the front end of the curve as inversion deepens. Retail earnings mixed as rally begins to stall. The equity market rally has begun to run out of steam as we have been posting for much of this week. We have identified how this rally has clear features of the summer rally.
Wake Up Wall Street (SPY) (QQQ): Alphabet goes backwards as stocks hold gains for now
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, October 26: Equity markets rallied on Tuesday as investors remain confident of lower interest rates. We had the "Fed pause" article from The Wall Street Journal, which got the market's hopes up. This then has continued with some stronger-than-expected earnings. Overall,129 companies have so far reported from the S&P 500, and 73.6% have beaten admitedly lowered estimates, according to Refinitiv.
Tesla revenue miss the focus as TSLA stock slides in premarket
Tesla stock falls over 5% as earnings released post-session on Wednesday. Tesla beat on EPS but missed on revenue. Tesla CEO Elon Musk remains bullish on prospects for the EV leader. Tesla (TSLA) reported earnings after the close last night, and without even looking at them we must assume they disappointed the market. Tesla shares quickly fell 3% and have not recovered in the premarket.
Netflix Earnings: Subscriber numbers feed into relief rally, but how far can it stretch?
NFLX stock rallies lucky 13% after announcing earnings on Tuesday. Netflix subscriber growth helps shares stage a relief rally. NFLX will look to the bottom as investors hope this is the end. Netflix (NFLX) came out with earnings after the close on Tuesday, and the horror show of previous earnings has been put behind them.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA rises as markets stage massive recovery
TSLA stock recovers as market u-turns after hot CPI. Tesla CEO Elon Musk still set on Twitter takeover. TSLA bounces perfectly off support. Tesla (TSLA) followed markets in making a sharp u-turn and reversing higher on Thursday following another hot CPI report from the US. Tesla shares closed up 2% at $221.72. Action in the premarket after the CPI report was looking ugly, but a massive short squeeze completely turned the entire equity market around.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA gets China sales boost
Tesla stock is set to open lower on Tuesday as equities remain challenged. TSLA sees strong China sales data, but Morgan Stanley sees headwinds. US yield surge continues to pressure growth stocks. Tesla (TSLA) looks set to open lower on Tuesday as conflicting stories circulate regarding the stock.
Rivian Stock News and Forecast: RIVN set for more losses on recall news
Rivian stock looks set for more losses as a recall hit sentiment. RIVN stock is already down nearly 70% year to date. Rivian does have a strong cash position, better than many EV competitors. Rivian (RIVN) is once again making headlines over the weekend and for the wrong reasons, unfortunately. The company has been forced from reports to issue a recall on nearly 90% of all the vehicles it has produced.
Twitter Stock News and Forecast: TWTR falls as Musk saga continues
Twitter stock fell nearly 4% on Thursday as the Elon Musk saga continues. TWTR stock now trading nearly 10% below the offer price of $54.20. Twitter still has surged from lows of $41 last week. The will-he-won't-he saga appears to be nearing a conclusion, but it is not over the finish line yet. Market participants and investors look to be doubting the deal if the latest share price movements are anything to go by. Twitter is trading at under $50 now at $49.30 this morning in Friday's premarket.
Crypto Stocks: Coinbase, MicroStrategy pop as Bitcoin, Luna, Dogecoin and Ethereum try to bottom
Crypto stocks continue to recover as Bitcoin holds above $20,000. Other cryptocurrencies also stabilize with DOGE and Ethereum possibly bottoming. COIN, MARA, MSTR all begin to recover. Crypto stocks continue on the recovery path as the risk-off sentiment that hammered equity markets begins to ease. In fact, the crypto space held up reasonably well in this equity sell off with Bitcoin never breaking prior lows.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA suffers again as Elon Musk moves ahead on Twitter deal
Tesla stock falls as speculation mounts surrounding TWTR acquisition financing. Elon Musk looks to finally take over Twitter. Twitter stock rallied but still trades at a near 10% discount. The will, he won't he debate surrounding Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and his bid for Twitter continues to rumble. Twitter (TWTR) stock initially soared on Tuesday as reports broke that the deal looked like it was on.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA set to fall more as delivery data disappoints
TSLA set to open lower as weekend delivery data disappoints. Tesla already fell 4% last week. Apple also suffering from dragging main indices lower. Tesla (TSLA) looks set to open sharply lower on Monday as the equity market continues to battle raging storms. Last week was a momentous one in currency markets, and those of us in equity land need to keep note of this. In good times it is easy to overlook the global macro outlook, but these are not good times.
Nike beat on earnings, so why the panic as NKE stock slides 10%?
Nike released earnings on Thursday, beating on the top and bottom lines. Nike reported having higher inventory than wanted. NKE fell nearly 10% in afterhours trading. Nike (NKE) was on the minds of investors Thursday as the sportswear giant unveiled its latest set of quarterly earnings. The headline results looked promising, but the stock still tanked 10% afterhours. Nike stock news Earnings per share (EPS) was forecast at $0.92, and it came in at $0.93.
Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL to open lower on production reports
Apple stock closed higher on Tuesday as markets gave up morning gains. AAPL looked to be forming a bottom. Initial reports from iPhone 14 orders looked strong. Apple (AAPL) stock looks to open lower on Wednesday as reports surface over production of the new iPhone 14. Hopes had been high that the new iPhone would provide a stimulus going into Q3 earnings, but now it appears that may not follow through.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA sets up risk-on rally
Tesla is set up for a rally on Tuesday. TSLA stock now looks to target $281 resistance. TSLA failed to test support at $266.15. Tesla (TSLA) stock looks set to rally on Tuesday as equity markets attempt to put in a bottom. Turnaround Tuesday is the favourite term of media analysts, and it may actually come to pass if initial signs are held. Monday was an attempt at a rally before a poor US 2-Year auction slapped equities back down again in the face of yields retaking their gains for the session.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA suffers as yields continue to dominate
Tesla stock falls sharply on Thursday as investors react to the Fed dot plot. Higher yields hurt growth stocks as TSLA stock falls 4%. More pain is in store for Tesla as European equities head south. Tesla (TSLA) reacted poorly to the latest central bank developments with the stock falling 4% on Thursday. Main indices were not as badly hit with the S&P 500 losing less than 1% and the Nasdaq just over 1%. Tesla again then demonstrated its high beta.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA falls as Fed goes more hawkish than anticipated
Tesla stock gyrates wildly around the Fed interest rate decision. TSLA eventually closed down over 2% on Wednesday. Tesla is likely to struggle further along with all equities. Tesla (TSLA) swung around pretty wildly as the Fed decision was announced. The gyrations were partly to do with positioning and also lingering hopes for a Fed pivot. Equity markets sold off on the initial 75 bps rate hike. It was more the dot plot showing higher rates in 2023 that caught many by surprise.
Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL struggles, but can the iPhone 14 save it?
Apple stock moves lower after eventual Fed sell-off. Press conferences gave bulls some hope, but interest rates cannot be avoided. AAPL has seen an iPhone catalyst. Apple (AAPL) gyrated wildly after the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, in line with virtually every other stock. Initially, the reaction was negative with stocks moving sharply lower as bond yields moved much higher. A more dovish start to the press conference, however, saw a massive intraday swing with the Nasdaq surging over 2%.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA ignores downside pressure
Tesla stock continues to outperform as it closes more or less flat on Friday. Equity indices close lower by 0.7% for S&P 500 and 0.5% for the Nasdaq. Tesla delivery times continue to fall for most models in China. Tesla (TSLA) stock continues its relative outperformance as the stock closed more or less flat on Friday while the main indices continued their recent retreat. Tesla has now ignored the island formation we spoke about recently.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA outperforms on a miserable day
Tesla stock loses 4% on Tuesday to close at $292.13. That was better than the Nasdaq, which closed 5% lower. Equities suffer as inflation is sticky. Tesla (TSLA) actually outperformed on Tuesday, an unusual occurrence for a high beta, volatile name. Perhaps the recent stock split has helped calm things down, or attention has shifted to other big tech names: Apple and Alphabet -6%, Amazon -7%, and Facebook -9%.
Bed Bath & Beyond Stock News and Forecast: BBBY extends recovery ahead of US inflation
BBBY stock gains over 2.50% on Monday as risk assets rally. Most short names also see the strongest interest as risk-on is back. Bed Bath & Beyond shares could see more gains in the week ahead. Update: Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) shares extended their recovery mode into the fourth straight trading day on Monday, as risk flows dominated at the start of the week.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA trades ahead of Nasdaq to start the week
Tesla (TSLA) stock closes up over 3% on Friday as equities rally. Tesla set up continues to be bullish in the short term. China deliveries increase sharply versus a month ago. UPDATE: TSLA stock has traded up 1.7% in the first hour of Monday's session, about 50 basis points ahead of the Nasdaq Composite. The market overall appears rather upbeat. All three major indices are green.
Palantir Stock News and Forecast: PLTR looks set for short-term rally
PLTR stock is down 59% year to date. Palantir was one of retail's favorite stocks during 2021, but the crash has lost it fans. PLTR operates in the government and defense spaces. Palantir (PLTR) is a stock that generates much debate on social media and still carries a reasonable retail following. This has diminished along with the share price, but there are some believers still willing to trust the long-term investment thesis.
Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA triples China deliveries
Tesla stock rallies sharply on Wednesday. TSLA closes up over 3% at $283.70. Latest car passenger data from China looks strong. Tesla (TSLA) outperformed on Wednesday as equities staged a slight relief rally following perceived dovish comments from Fed member Lael Brainard. Tesla outperformed as the main indices closed up in the region of 2%. The latest data looks promising but has already been widely rumored so presumably was in the price.
Three dividend stocks that look interesting for the long run: BHP, MRNA, BTI
Dividend stocks have been gaining attention as many are value orientated. With low bond yields, dividend stocks can look attractive. Rising bond yields mean higher dividend payments are required for higher risk. Dividends are always of interest to those looking for a regular income or those seeking to live from a retirement portfolio. With interest rates having been pinned to multi-decade lows until recently, investors had been seeking yield in other areas like the equity or bond markets.
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