Jacob Greber
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7.30 political editor at www.abc.net.au/news/programs/730
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Articles by Jacob Greber
If polls are right, voters are in a mood to send Labor into the wilderness
Labor's sprawling backbench has been a sight to behold ever since the 2025 electoral bushfire that consumed the Coalition, leaving behind a lot of empty stumps and toasted tussocks. The view from the press gallery seats drives this home. Below the viewer sprawls the government's 94-seat majority. It dominates the green benches of the lower house, spilling across the chamber's centre line deep into what is normally opposition upholstery. It’s the literal embodiment of political weight.
Program: Is Josh Frydenberg back?
Parliament is back for another sitting week and Jacob Greber is back on the podcast! But as Jacob tells PK, it's already looking like a "tricky" week for the Albanese government, with no clear passage for their legislative agenda. And PK thinks new Greens leader David Shoebridge will also be looking to make his mark. So, will he play "hardball" with Labor? Meanwhile, questions are swirling about whether former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg's will return to federal politics.
Program: Are Australians 'surrender monkeys' on AI?
The AI debate has moved from science fiction to superpower contest, with tech leaders warning of the risks while Donald Trump insists the US must beat China. So where does that leave Australia? Can it lead the way in any meaningful sense - on safety, copyright, data centres and investment - or is the Albanese government stuck trying to manage the risks while chasing the productivity upside?
Genuine conviction politicians cut through in the age of large language models
People who lead us in public life can often sound like one of those dead-eyed "large language models" many are so worried about. Politically-optimised LLMs jerry-rigged to flesh-and-bone "neural networks". Sprouting reasonable-sounding nonsense. All that's missing is a silly name like Llama or Rufus. This column has no real understanding of how AI works.
Program: One Nation goes for super
Parliament is back for another sitting fortnight and "rival ideas" are already dominating the agenda. The Albanese Government is set to unveil draft Digital Duty of Care legislation by the end of the week, while One Nation has unveiled its plan to allow Australians who rent or pay a mortgage to divert a portion of their super payments as salary for up to three years. As PK tells Jacob, the Coalition is again starting the week on the backfoot — "who is in the field?
'Afraid of change': political optimism now a rare commodity in Australia
What a despairing mob we've become. This week's national accounts confirmed how stuck we are in a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours … to steal from English literature's greatest melancholy wobbler. It's doubtful Hamlet ever dwelt on the state of Denmark's real net national disposable income (RNNDI) per capita. But if he had he might have embraced what a downer it is.
Program: One Nation comes for Labor seats
One Nation's resounding win at the WA Secret Harbour by-election was watched closely by political insiders in Canberra. The historic state by-election win came with a warning from One Nation that there are "no safe seats". So, is Federal Labor concerned — and what lessons are they taking? It comes as two new polls show Labor and One Nation remain neck-and-neck. Patricia Karvelas and Jacob Greber break it all down on Politics Now.
Program: Is Albanese WA's 'daddy'?
Anthony Albanese has confirmed there will be no changes to the WA GST deal, in a move warmly welcomed in Western Australia. WA Premier Roger Cook says he's "pleased the PM backed WA" while the local paper has dubbed Anthony Albanese "WA's Daddy". But the move has been received far less warmly across other states and territories, and it's not the only issue where tensions are likely to flare at National Cabinet tomorrow.
Program: The politics of parochialism
A familiar fight has re-emerged on WA's GST deal, after the productivity commission labelled the arrangement a "costly mistake" in its interim report. But is this an issue the Albanese Government has any appetite for? Or do the political stakes have to be higher? And speaking of old stoushes, the super wars appear to be back on the agenda, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers declaring the next federal election will be a "referendum" on superannuation.
Program: The podcast the PM regrets
Parliament is back this week, with politicians descending on the nations capital for a stacked sitting fortnight. After playing hardball, the Albanese Government is signalling some openness to negotiations on gambling reforms, particularly around inducements.
Program: The politics of property prices
House prices are falling across the country, with the downturn no longer just confined to Sydney and Melbourne according to new Cotality data. Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek says there's never "been a better time to be a first home buyer in Australia", while Treasurer Jim Chalmers has pointed to Treasury modelling that house price growth would slow by about 2 per cent in the short term.
'Enduring' US presence at WA's HMAS Stirling a matter of semantics
Americans love a sheep dog breed known as the "Aussie Shepherd". Spend time in the US and you'll meet them everywhere. A lively fluffy-looking herder claimed to have partly originated from antipodean imports to California in the 19th century. The name is striking because you don't really see them here. There's no way to know for sure but I'd wager a few of these popular pets will soon be coming "home". Specifically among families of the some 1000 US military personnel moving to HMAS Stirling in WA.
Program: Victorian Labor's leadership crisis
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is facing a leadership spill, with Deputy Premier Ben Carroll confirming he will run for the Labor leadership. It comes after a delegation of Labor MPs met with the Premier to urge her to resign, but it doesn't seem Jacinta Allan is willing to step aside without a fight.
Labor conference proves a masterclass in political trade-offs
If Australia indeed harbours a "monoculture" it might be the ideological version on display at this week's Labor Party National Conference. For supporters it was orderly, unified and determined. A striking example of political resolve. For critics? A wearisome parade of Bunyip Juche. The party's supreme policy-making machine has been busy honing a platform that's as tight and shiny as a button.
Program: Pauline Hanson dominates attention economy
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has robustly defended her appearance on controversial far-right agitator Tommy Robinson's podcast amid backlash. But while the minor party has issued some clarifications, does the controversy feed into Pauline Hanson's playbook and has she succeed in "consuming the attention economy"? Meanwhile, the Albanese Government has responded to its special envoy's report on Islamophobia 10-months after it was released.
Program: Albanese's AI roadmap
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has unveiled "world-leading" AI standards, urging Australians to embrace change and shape AI in the national interest. The PM used a landmark speech to lay out his vision for Australia's AI future, as Australians grapple with concerns over job losses, anxieties over the environmental impacts of AI data centres and copyright protections.
Curbing well-off taxpayers’ access to key programs could save billions
By Jacob Greber John Howard once likened the struggle for economic reform to “the runner who is pursuing an ever-receding finishing line”. “If you don’t keep running, you don’t try to reach it, then others are going to go past you.” Howard used that line in a 2005 speech in Washington. A little over two years later he and the Coalition’s 11-year run in office ended in defeat to Kevin Rudd. In the lead-up to the 2007 election, Labor accused the Howard government of giving up on structural reform.
Program: Australia has a deficit dilemma, could means-testing wealth be the solution?
Dire budget deficits for years to come and stalling productivity growth are painting a bleak economic picture. Against this backdrop, a new policy idea has emerged: if Australia can't rely on productivity growth and tax reform to fix the budget blackhole, what about means-testing wealth? Peter Harris is the former chair of the Productivity Commission and now board director at the Policy Institute Australia.
Curbing well-off taxpayers' access to key programs could save billions
John Howard once likened the struggle for economic reform to "the runner who is pursuing an ever-receding finishing line". "If you don't keep running, you don't try to reach it, then others are going to go past you." Howard used that line in a 2005 speech in Washington. A little over two years later he and the Coalition's 11-year run in office ended in defeat to Kevin Rudd. In the lead-up to the 2007 election, Labor accused the Howard government of giving up on structural reform.
Program: A Pacific push and podcast blunder
Australia has a new military alliance, signing a mutual defence pact with Fiji. Australia has long had a defence alliance with the US and New Zealand. Last year, an historic pact with Papua New Guinea forged a new direction for Australia and now a similar pledge has been made with Fiji.
Will Conroy's cat carcass distract from Labor's AUKUS conundrum?
Kudos to Pat Conroy who on Wednesday night took a leaf out of Lynton Crosby's reputed playbook and tossed a proverbial dead cat onto Sarah Ferguson's 7.30 desk. As political tactics go, it's an oldie but a goodie. Boris Johnson reportedly once detailed how the conservative strategist Crosby explained the manoeuvre: "Everyone will shout: 'Jeez mate there's a dead cat on the table!'" Which is then all they'll talk about, rather than "the issue that has been causing you so much grief".
Program: Crocodile Dundee enters the chat
It's a classic "poll Monday" with Jacob and PK! Polling from Newspoll and Redbridge has One Nation's support dipping slightly, with Labor taking back the mantle of most popular political party. It comes after Pauline Hanson's combative National Press Club address — so is Labor's strategy to fight the surging populist party bearing some fruit? Meanwhile, the Coalition's woes have continued, with the Opposition's primary support hitting a historic low of 17 per cent in Newspoll.
Program: Pragmatic politics or dirty deals?
Parliament is back for the final sitting fortnight before the mid-winter break. The Albanese Government is eager to pass its key budget measures, but will the Greens waive through tax reforms in exchange for an extended NDIS inquiry? Meanwhile, Anthony Albanese has convened a virtual nation cabinet to discuss fuel security, as the Government winds down its fuel excise cut. But as global turbulence continues, the PM hasn't ruled out a further extension if needed.
Hanson's bulldozer moment could be a sign of new promiscuity in donor politics
When the LNP was formed in Queensland back in the late 2000s through an amalgamation of the Nationals and Liberals, one of the state's local billionaires was willing to assist ahead of the looming state election. LNP leader Lawrence Springborg was offered the billionaire's jet for use during the campaign against the Labor government, an LNP figure familiar with the offer recalls. It was an attractive idea.
Program: How Labor fights the polls for Pauline
Pauline Hanson is now the preferred Prime Minister - ahead of the actual Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor - if the latest Resolve poll is anything to go by. Yes, it’s a big “if”. But it’s also not the sort of number the major parties can laugh off. As One Nation’s rise moves from protest vote to serious political threat, what is Labor’s strategy to stop the bleed - and is it working?
'Volcano on the sea floor': Labor is aware of the challenges posed by One Nation, budget
Parliamentary Question Time is at best an imperfect reflection of political reality. A preening, frustrating dingleberry show oozing with hypocrisy and faux outrage. Talking point torture. On a good day it's illuminating. There's humour. There's cut-through rhetoric. The last fortnight has been more the former. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke seized on Angus Taylor prematurely returning to his seat.
Program: Could Pauline Hanson become PM?
A new poll has One Nation ahead of Labor as the most popular political party, as the Albanese Government loses some skin in the wake of the budget. And One Nation leader Pauline Hanson isn't ruling out becoming prime minister in the future, saying she "has the ability" and is considering a tilt at a lower house seat at the next election.
Program: A new 'teal' party?
Parliament is back in session and there's speculation a new party could be on the horizon. Independents Zali Steggall and Allegra Spender have confirmed conversations about forming a party with like-minded so-called "teals" are underway. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has given the idea a tick of approval, but many fellow crossbenchers have already confirmed they won't be joining. So, is this just a "thought experiment" or could a party of independents become a reality?
The budget's central weakness was revealed this week
"Things That Make You Go Hmmm…" as hip hop group C+C Music Factory asserts in their 1991 dancefloor banger, are those sweet mysteries and ironies of life that crystallise from time to time, which is how it feels after one of those weeks in Australian politics that might just have heralded what Germans call a "Wende".
Program: Is the post-budget bounce dead?
There's a big budget contest of ideas underway, as Labor and the Coalition try to sell their alternate visions for Australia to voters. Or as Jacob puts it to PK, "politics is back!" Treasurer Jim Chalmers has brushed off new polling, suggesting the Government wasn't expecting a post-Budget bounce and doing the right thing is worth "any near term political costs". And the Opposition leader Angus Taylor is also defending his policies, with some pushback coming from within his own party.
Wayne Swan slams the 'view from Mar-a-Lago' as battle for middle Australia gets real
Status-quo-shattering political earthquakes are coming in thick and fast these days. A week ago, One Nation won its first lower house seat after defenestrating the Liberal Party from Farrer, a long-standing Coalition stronghold. Today, if some of the pundits are right, Labor could be in for a shock of its own courtesy of a by-election in the Queensland state seat of Stafford. Labor has won the seat at every election since 2001 with the exception of the 2012 Campbell Newman landslide.
Program: Where One Nation will target next
There's been a seismic shift in the Australian political landscape, with One Nation claiming it's first ever lower-house seat. The minor party's landslide victory in the former Coalition heartland of Farrer came with a warning shot from leader Pauline Hanson — "One Nation is coming for your seat next." So, as the recriminations continue, PK and Jacob discuss if "operation Angus" has failed the Coalition and what base the party has left.
EVs transcend politics as petro-vulnerability supercharges pragmatism
Various echo chambers have been chuntering for some time about a generous federal tax discount for electric vehicle buyers. It is, we've been told, an outrageous example of "middle class welfare". Yet it's a policy the government this week confirmed will be largely kept on the books in Tuesday's budget. It's a tax break that applies to novated leases, which allow car buyers to pay the interest, registration, insurance, maintenance and operating costs of a vehicle from pre-tax income.
Program: Australia-Japan: friends with benefits?
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have held bi-lateral talks, lauding the "quasi-alliance" and friendship between the two-nations. As Jacob tells PK, Anthony Albanese has been engaging in extensive "alliance-work" over the last few months.
Federal politics: Global fuel crisis 'worst possible time' to jeopardise existing gas contracts, PM says — as it happened
David Pocock says he's disappointed the prime minister used an industry breakfast to suggest gas producers won't have to pay a gas export tax. Advocates are calling for a flat 25 per cent tax on gas exports. This morning, Anthony Albanese said the government wouldn't undermine existing gas export contracts and impose surprises on the industry in the upcoming federal budget.
Program: The Trump 'ick' factor in Australia
Anthony Albanese has joined with other world leaders to express gratitude that the US President was unharmed after a a shooter crashed the venue of the White House Correspondents dinner. But back home, support for Donald Trump and the US alliance is under strain, could that also spell trouble for One Nation? And as the Farrer by-election gets closer, could the Coalition preferencing the minor party get them their first lower house seat in 30-years?
The outcome of the Farrer by-election could be a watershed moment in Australian politics
Pre-polling opens on Tuesday for the by-election in Farrer two weeks from today. A blockbuster contest beckons. The Liberals and Nationals are at serious risk of emerging as the primary losers. But Labor, which is not running, is also at risk. Even if some in the party are privately munching from the popcorn bucket of schadenfreude at news this week the Coalition parties will direct preferences to One Nation's David Farley ahead of the independent Michelle Milthorpe.
Program: Is Trump taking the shine off One Nation?
Treasurer Jim Chalmers says reining in NDIS spending will “easily be the most important” source of budget savings as the Albanese Government looks to make the scheme "sustainable". And while the Treasurer confirmed a "whole range" of tax reforms remain on the table, is consensus growing across political aisles and the community for changes like a gas profits tax?
Iran war and energy shock make delivering the federal budget unusually hard
Politically speaking, wars and economic turmoil are the most potent of catalysts. Accelerating the compulsion for change. And they can create a split between those who see crises as an opportunity to do things once regarded as impossible or unthinkable. A door opened. And those who reject such adventuring as the deluded indulgence of vanished sunnier days argue that what is needed is a return to the oatmeal gruel of sacrifice and restraint. A door barricaded.
Program: A world full of predators
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A National Defence Strategy, an oil refinery fire, a regional charm offensive by the PM, a bleak global outlook from the IMF and a new Opposition immigration policy — it's been another big week in politics. So, is the Albanese Government's boost to defence spending the right move — or at least a sign they're "on the right track"?
By Patricia Karvelas Verified, Jacob Greber Verified
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Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC)
Verified
Program: Will Albanese's 'petro-diplomacy' work?
US President Donald Trump has ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, after peace talks with Iran failed over the weekend. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has reiterated that Australia hasn't been asked to assist, and called for the resumption of negotiations and an end to the conflict. It comes as Anthony Albanese prepares to visit his counterparts in Malaysia and Brunei for another round of "petro-diplomacy", as he attempts to shore up fuel and fertiliser supplies with the region.
Albanese's petro-diplomacy can't overcome the pain of what may lie ahead
This is not over. The hard stuff is only just beginning. And it's going to get bumpy, testing the nation's resilience and its political leadership. Bloody grim, in other words. That's the unmissable mood this week behind the political veil in Canberra. That is, once you get away from positive-sounding daily updates about improvements in the number of fuel stations that are full or ministerial assurances that imported supply to the country is OK until "well into May".
Program: Threats, a ceasefire and strained alliances
An extreme threat, a ceasefire, and a an awkward roller coaster for US allies Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has welcomed the US-Iran two-week ceasefire, but criticised US President Donald Trump's "inappropriate" threats that a "whole civilisation will die". The condemnation came after Nationals leader Matt Canavan urged the PM to make it clear he doesn't support the US President's rhetoric. So, is most of the criticism of Donald Trump actually coming from the right?
Program: Can you deliver reform during a crisis?
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed his upcoming trip to Singapore, as the government continues to "build resilience" amid global uncertainty. It comes as the US President has again criticised Australia and NATO allies for their lack of help, as his deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire or face "complete demolition" looms. Meanwhile, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is trying to put the final touches on his fifth budget, which the PM warns will be finalised later than usual.
Program: Labor's gambling reforms - tinker or triumph?
Over 1000-days since the landmark Murphy report was handed down, Anthony Albanese has announced his government's long awaited gambling advertisement reform. The move came on the Thursday before the Easter long weekend, with critics disappointed the reforms are too timid and don't go far enough. So, has the prime minister landed on a "half pregnant" position on gambling reform? And is there a clear pathway to get the legislation through parliament?
Program: Albanese reads the room with cheaper fuel
The Prime Minister has announced that the fuel excise will be halved and the heavy vehicle road user charge reduced to zero for three months. It comes as National Cabinet also agrees to an energy security plan, with four levels of action. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the reductions are "temporary, timely and responsible", but they come with a $2.55 billion dollar price-tag.
Program: Which political party is listening to Australians?
The Labor Malinaukus Government claimed a landslide victory in the South Australian election over the weekend, cementing what PK calls the Premier's "political rockstar" status in the state. But One Nation also managed to convert it's high polling numbers into success at the ballot box, peeling voters off the Liberal party. And it's not just the Liberals rattled by the minor parties success, with Labor also put on notice and the SA Premier warning his team against hubris.
Politics is about to become all about gas
In Australia, a land of sweeping plains and Utopia-style governing, nothing can strike fear and alarm more than the sight of technocrats gathering to "make a plan". As domestic fallout from the war against Iran gets upgraded to the likes of an economy-wide category five cyclone, the rush to hold nation-wide meetings and appoint coordinating generals has become irresistible. But what are they planning? What do they know that the rest of us don't?
Program: Was Labor slow to act on fuel fears?
The Albanese Government has ruled out sending a navy ship to the strait of Hormuz, as fuel woes continue to bite at home. And while the Energy Minister moved to unlock some of our fuel reserves and ease choke-points late last week, some regional communities have still been left scrambling. So, if this crisis continues, could fuel rationing be on the table? Patricia Karvelas and Jacob Greber break it all down on Politics Now. Got a burning political query?
Iran creates a massive variable for looming federal budget
South Park's version of roshambo — the enduring "rock paper scissors" game unreliably said to have been played by George Washington and the Comte de Rochambeau after the British surrender in 1781 — was invented by Cartman and involves taking turns kicking each other in the nuts. The point being — lest it require explanation — you don't want to go second. Which is no doubt how Jim Chalmers feels as he contemplates this year's budget, which is starting to take shape in Treasury.
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