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Articles by Jake Rinaldi
If China Attacks Taiwan: Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Conflict
Today’s episode is the second in a three-part series that examines the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we’re speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs.
If China Attacks Taiwan
Research on the possibility and likely outcome of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict dynamics, and possible conflict outcomes.
China’s Role in a Future Korean War
This article argues that China’s intervention in a Korean conflict will hinge more on North Korea’s ability to hold territory than on bilateral ties. Rather than treat Chinese intervention as a yes-or-no proposition, this study models three scenarios—full intervention, sustained support, and limited support—based on North Korean resilience.
China’s Internal Security Cooperation with Socialist States
China’s deepening internal security cooperation with single-party Leninist states represents a formidable challenge to Western democracies, underscoring the need for pragmatic approaches to counter its growing influence.
Weapons of Influence: Unpacking China’s Global Arms Strategy
This article explores the strategic motivations behind China’s arms sales and uses Chinese-language analyses from influential party and military institutions to identify five main interests driving Chinese arms exports: protecting economic investments, gaining influence in conflict zones, enhancing partner military capabilities, building diplomatic relationships, and offsetting research and development costs.
Understanding the PRC’s Selective Use of Military Hotlines
Executive Summary: The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a recognition that hotlines offer tactical benefits, but they are not viewed as a solution to the broader challenges in US-PRC relations.
Russia’s Deepening Ties to North Korea: China’s Gateway to the Arctic?
Recently, the Moscow Times reported that Russia would coordinate a deal with China and North Korea to allow Chinese ships to navigate through a seventeen-kilometer stretch of the Tumen River to the Rason Special Economic Zone (SEZ) on the Pacific coast. The Tumen forms the border between China and North Korea, but its final section marks the border between North Korea and Russia.
Secrecy and Solidarity: PRC Internal Security Partnerships with Socialist States
Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) engages in extensive security cooperation with other single-party socialist states. This includes deploying the People’s Armed Police (PAP) to train paramilitary and police forces in these countries, offering cybersecurity support, and assisting with online information control.
China-North Korea Arms Trade from the Perspective of Chinese Scholars
Executive Summary MAIN ARGUMENT An assessment of open-source materials authored by Chinese scholars and experts indicates that, despite international sanctions on weapon sales to North Korea, arms exports play a significant role in enhancing China’s geopolitical influence, countering the U.S., and securing a Chinese presence on the Korean Peninsula.
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