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Articles by Jalil Bayat
The US risks pushing Iran towards a nuclear weapon – Responsible Statecraft
President Biden’s hesitation thus far in lifting sanctions imposed on Iran by his predecessor and returning Washington to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, nuclear deal risks a repeat of events between the United States and North Korea more than two decades ago when Pyongyang withdrew from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and began manufacturing nuclear weapons in earnest.
The hard truths about North Korea that Trump or Biden will have to confront – Responsible Statecraft
Before President Obama departed the White House, he gave his successor, Donald Trump, some advice: pay attention to North Korea, because the reclusive nation will be your top national security priority. As one might expect, President Trump has tackled the North Korea file in his own distinct way.
How the recent Iran-IAEA agreement can save the nuclear deal – Responsible Statecraft
Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency recently resolved a year and a half-long dispute over an Agency investigation into possible undeclared nuclear materials and activities. While this investigation is focused on accounting for past activities, Iran’s cooperation eliminates a key obstacle that may have impeded any potential return to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.
How a proposed new fund to bolster the Palestinian economy stands to benefit Israeli settlers – Responsible Statecraft
How a proposed new fund to bolster the Palestinian economy stands to benefit Israeli settlers The tripartite agreement between the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and the U.S. to normalize Emirati-Israeli relations in exchange for an Israeli commitment to sideline plans to officially annex parts of the occupied Palestinian territories, does nothing to advance prospects for creation of a Palestinian state; rather, it is consistent with the “outside-in” approach the U.S. has historically pursued...
Why Is Iran Developing Missiles, Bolstering Proxies?
Jalil Bayat Responsible Statecraft September 2, 2020 After failing to extend the Iran arms embargo at the U.N. Security Council, the Trump administration is now seeking to initiate the “snapback” mechanism provided in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action which allows its participants to reinstate all multilateral sanctions against Iran lifted in 2015 under the nuclear deal.
How to manufacture a ‘new cold war’ with China – Responsible Statecraft
In recent months, many observers have sounded the alarm that hardening U.S. policy toward China could provoke a “new cold war.” As I wrote with my colleague, Quincy Institute Deputy Director of Research and Policy Stephen Wertheim in the New York Times, hawkish members of the Trump administration are using the current pandemic as an opportunity to launch a long-desired cold war that had failed to gain traction amidst Trump’s push for a phase-one trade deal.
Don’t shoot the messenger – Responsible Statecraft
Because we should care about what people are thinking about critical issues, polling is important. It opens a window so we can hear the voices of public opinion and make intelligent policy decisions. Sometimes, poll results affirm what we believe to be true and we feel gratified. On other occasions, the findings run counter to our expectations and we face a dilemma.
The Quincy Institute’s Middle East report and the hopes of a new Iran nuclear deal – Responsible Statecraft
The Quincy Institute’s Middle East report and the hopes of a new Iran nuclear deal Momentum is building around Joe Biden’s presidential campaign, as polling indicates he is leading President Trump. The campaign has recently rolled out a series of ambitious policy plans related to housing, energy, taxes, and foreign policy. Observers have begun to speculate whether Biden will rival Franklin Delano Roosevelt as the most progressive president in U.S. history.
How our endless wars have pushed the US military to court young gamers – Responsible Statecraft
After two years working under the radar, the U.S. Army’s latest Verhoevenian effort to recruit young people through online gaming, streaming, and a full embrace of digital culture has finally gotten in some hot water. Though they have paused their nearly-daily streams of popular games like “Warzone” over accusations of censorship, bait-and-switch giveaways that lead to recruiting forms, and other deceptive messaging, the U.S. Army Esports project has only just begun.
A pragmatic partnership: Why China and Iran try to collaborate – Responsible Statecraft
China and Iran are in the spotlight for their reported talks on a long-term partnership agreement even before any details of it have formally emerged. The green light for these negotiations came shortly after the finalisation of the Iran nuclear deal in 2016, when Chinese President Xi Jinping made a historic visit to the country and met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Back then, the two countries issued a broad statement of intent to pursue a more formalised partnership.
Defense industry cheers as the Trump administration is poised to loosen restrictions on drone exports – Responsible Statecraft
Defense industry cheers as the Trump administration is poised to loosen restrictions on drone exports Last week, Reuters reported that the United States was set to reinterpret a decades-old international agreement that would allow the U.S. defense industry to sell drones with less restraint and fewer restrictions.
Why the Trump administration has such disdain for the ICC – Responsible Statecraft
Earlier this month, President Trump signed an executive order authorizing sanctions — a tool purportedly intended to punish bad actors — against International Criminal Court investigators, (and their immediate family members) involved in a probe into U.S. war crimes.
The next U.S. administration must fix our broken Syria policy - Responsible Statecraft
Green Berets fire .50 caliber machine guns on Common Remotely Operated Weapon Stations from their M-ATV Special Forces Vehicles during a readiness exercise near At-Tanf Garrison, Syria, April 12, 2020. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. William Howard) In an interview with CBS News, former Deputy Secretary of State and current senior Biden campaign advisor Antony Blinken proposed a Syria policy that was largely a continuation of the status quo.
Real and imagined problems of the Middle Eastern arms trade - Responsible Statecraft
One of the latest steps in the Trump administration’s never-ending pressure campaign on Iran is its attempt to extend a United Nations-imposed embargo prohibiting the export to or import from Iran of conventional arms. At a rhetorical level, the administration’s pitch is easy to make — no American politician ever lost votes by arguing against arms going to Iran.
The strategic implications of the brewing Iran arms embargo crisis - Responsible Statecraft
Editorial credit: saeediex / Shutterstock.com In the last few weeks, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revealed a new initiative to extend the arms embargo on Iran. According to United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, adopted following the signing of the Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, United Nations restrictions on conventional arms sales to Iran would expire after five years, on October 18, 2020.
Two years after JCPOA withdrawal, Americans are less safe, the Middle East less peaceful - Responsible Statecraft
On 9 May, the second anniversary of the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted that ‘Americans are safer and the Middle East is more peaceful than if we had remained in the #JCPOA’. Any way one looks at it, this is demonstrably untrue. The truth is the opposite.
After Trump vetoed the Iran war powers resolution, Congress must continue to act - Responsible Statecraft
Photo credit: bakdc / Shutterstock.com On April 22, President Trump took to Twitter and threatened to attack Iran, instructing the Navy to “shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.” The tweet was both alarming and cringeworthy — boats don’t fly. But it was also commonplace. Trump has threatened to start a war with Iran so many times that it almost feels banal. It would be a mistake to let Trump’s threats toward Iran become normal.
Two years after US withdrawal from the Iran deal, where are we now? - Responsible Statecraft
Photo credit: Andrew Cline / Shutterstock.com Two years have passed since the unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal with Iran.
In tortured logic, Trump begs for a do-over on the Iran nuclear deal - Responsible Statecraft
President Donald J. Trump, joined by Vice President Mike Pence and Cabinet members, participates in an expanded working luncheon with the Emir of Qatar Tamin bin Hamad Al Thani Tuesday, July 9, 2019, in the Cabinet Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead) Even the Trump administration seems to grudgingly have concluded that breaching the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) was a mistake.
Collective punishment against ICC officials – and their families – Responsible Statecraft
In a move that was stunning even to cold-eyed observers of the Trump administration’s persistent attacks on the International Criminal Court (ICC), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced last Tuesday that the U.S. would seek to sanction not only the staff of the ICC, two of whom he cited by name, but also their families, in order to punish the court for its efforts to pursue an investigation into war crimes and crimes against humanity in Afghanistan since 2003, including crimes committed by...
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