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Articles by James Siebens
How to Avoid a War over Taiwan • Stimson Center
TOPLINE The United States is currently on course for sustained competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in which both sides recognize the dangers of a potential great-power conflict — something both sides say they hope to avoid.
Engineering an Armistice in Ukraine
TOPLINE After a third year of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, neither side has proven capable of achieving a decisive military outcome. Instead, hundreds of thousands of casualties have mounted, the war has expanded into Russian territory, and more outside forces from North Korea and other countries have entered the conflict.
Three ideas for countering China in the gray zone
Get all our news and commentary in your inbox at 6 a.m. ET. email The United States faces a serious policy dilemma in its efforts to confront and constrain China. Thus far, China has refrained from directly attacking any of its neighbors, keeping its actions below the threshold of “international aggression” that could provoke a lawful use of military force in self-defense.
Eyes on Taiwan: A Post-Election Analysis for the Region and the World
It is well-known that Lai has not been China’s favored candidate. Based on his past record, he is and will be “presumed guilty” of pursuing Taiwan independence by China. The question for Beijing is how far and how fast he will go. From his election campaign, the Chinese experts have drawn the conclusion that Lai most likely will not pursue key actions to change Taiwan’s status, such as a constitutional revision or a referendum.
Keep Calm and Carry On: China’s Armed Coercion Isn’t Working
The Red Cell was a small unit created by the CIA after 9/11 to ensure the analytic failure of missing the attacks would never be repeated. It produced short briefs intended to spur out-of-the-box thinking on flawed assumptions and misperceptions about the world, encouraging alternative policy thinking.
NATO Must Reject Turkey's Blackmail on Sweden's Bid
A recent article by Halil Karaveli in Foreign Policy rightly points out that Turkey’s attempt at blackmail over Sweden’s accession to NATO is ultimately about extracting concessions from the United States. However, we disagree that “for Sweden to join NATO, the United States will have to cease financing and arming the PYD and YPG in Syria.” Turkey is overplaying its hand.
The US’ Democracy Problem
“Adults in a Room” is a series in collaboration with The Stimson Center’s Reimagining US Grand Strategy program. The series stems from the group’s monthly networking events that call on analysts to gather virtually and hash out a salient topic. This series aims to give you a peek into their Zoom room and a deep understanding of the issue at hand in less than the time it takes to sip your morning coffee without the jargon, acronyms, and stuffiness that often come with expertise.
Russia's Invasion: Coercive Diplomacy Gone Wrong?
Conventional wisdom can change quickly. Whereas many opinion-makers once believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats were no more than a bluff, after Russian forces invaded Ukraine (again), conventional wisdom settled on a new position: that he planned to invade Ukraine all along, and that Moscow’s diplomatic efforts in advance of the assault were mere window-dressing meant to distract and divide the West.
Is Russia’s Invasion a Case of Coercive Diplomacy Gone Wrong?
Editor’s note: Don’t miss our comprehensive guide to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Conventional wisdom can change quickly.
The Trump Administration’s Mixed Messaging on Taiwan Strait Transits
Trans-Pacific View | Security | East Asia The U.S. needs to make clear if transits through the Taiwan Strait are routine demonstrations of its navigational rights or intentional signals of deterrence. Guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) in the Taiwan Strait, Dec. 30, 2020.
Counter-Coercion: How to Use the Military to Avoid War with China
Over the past decade, and especially since 2016, China has rapidly developed its military infrastructure, activities, and capabilities in the South China Sea. This became alarming enough that in 2018, Adm.
Why a US policy of fomenting regime change in Iran is a bad idea - Responsible Statecraft
Stephen Wickenton / Shutterstock.com In a recent Washington Post column, Reuel Marc Gerecht of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the Council on Foreign Relations’ Ray Tayekh made an impassioned case for seeking regime change in Iran while bemoaning the supposed risk they run of being “scorned as a warmonger, a fomenter of chaos.” The tone of their article is best captured in its final two sentences, “Seeking regime change isn’t rude.
Pull the Nukes from Turkey - and Then Think Bigger
Removing America’s nuclear weapons from Incirlik Air Base doesn’t have to drive a permanent wedge between Washington and Turkey. As Congress considers how to respond to the Trump administration’s withdrawal from Syria and Turkey’s subsequent attack on Kurdish forces in the region, a number of legislative options are on the table. In the House, Representatives Engel and McCaul have introduced a sanctions bill, as have Senators Risch and Graham in the Senate.
We Don’t Need Airstrikes to Restore Deterrence in the Strait of Hormuz
Recent history shows that a restrained, multilateral military response can help restore stability. Dr. Christopher Bolan argues convincingly that one reason U.S. deterrence is failing in the Strait of Hormuz is that U.S. policymakers are not clearly communicating their demands.
Trading Drills for Dialogue Is an Oft-Successful Tactic
Except for taking Seoul by surprise, Trump’s decision to halt US-ROK exercises has plenty of precedent. Much has been made of President Trump’s post-summit announcement that he was cancelling joint war games with South Korea. In light of his recent campaign of “maximum pressure” and last summer’s threats of “fire and fury like the world has never seen,” such a conciliatory move caught many off guard, including the South Koreans and perhaps even the U.S. military.
How Postponing a Wargame Helped Create a Diplomatic Opening
Delaying Foal Eagle 2018 made an underappreciated contribution toward the first meeting of U.S. and North Korean heads of state. U.S. and South Korean officials credit the U.S. strategy of maximum pressure and “zero concessions” for the sudden diplomatic movements by North Korea, including the Trump-Kim meeting planned for this spring.
What Geneva’s Syria Peace Talks Must Learn from Russia
Unless this latest round acknowledges battlefield reality, the UN-sponsored talks will continue their slide into irrelevance. The latest round of Geneva-based intra-Syrian peace talks opened on Tuesday with little hope for a breakthrough, because the Syrian regime and the opposition begin at an impasse over whether President Bashar al-Assad might be deposed while his grip on power remains firm.
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