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Articles by Jan-Peter Siedlarek
How Much Nonbank Business Lending Is Indirectly Funded by Banks? Some Evidence from a New Data Set
How Exposed Are Banks to Business Loans through Their Funding of NBFIs? Despite the shift of a large share of business loans from banks to the nonbank sector, banks might still be exposed to the loans made by NBFIs if they provide significant funding to them. Such financing might expose banks indirectly to the credit risk taken by NBFIs, something which is especially important if loans made by NBFIs are riskier than those made by banks (Acharya et al., 2024).
The Effect of Size Thresholds on Large Banks under the 2019 Tailoring Framework
Introduction A key objective of banking regulation is to protect the safety and soundness of the banking system, ensuring that it can continue lending as the economy goes through the ups and downs of the business cycle. Regulators pay particular attention to the largest or otherwise systemically important banks because of their larger impact on the banking system and the economy should they fail.
The Evolution of US Bank Capital around the Implementation of Basel III
The views authors express in Economic Commentary are theirs and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The series editor is Tasia Hane. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. This paper and its data are subject to revision; please visit clevelandfed.org for updates. Introduction Bank capital standards are a key pillar of modern banking regulation.
On the Heterogeneous Welfare Gains and Losses from Trade
03.22.19 Daniel R. Carroll Research Economist Daniel Carroll’s primary research interests are macroeconomics, public finance, and political economy. Read bio… Sewon Hur Research Economist Sewon Hur is a research economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He specializes in macroeconomics and international economics. Read bio… How are the gains and losses from trade distributed across individuals within a country?
Do Longer Expansions Lead to More Severe Recessions?
We are now in one of the longest expansions on record. The recession that preceded that expansion was one of the worst in history. Are those two facts related? Some economists suggest they are, while others suggest it’s the other way around: Longer expansions lead to more severe recessions. We assess the evidence for these two hypotheses. We find clear evidence for the former and little for the latter.
Asset Commonality in US Banks and Financial Stability
(PDF ) One potential threat to a stable financial system is the phenomenon of contagion, where a risk that is ordinarily small becomes a problem because of the way it spreads to other institutions. Researchers have investigated multiple channels through which contagion might occur. We look at two--banks borrowing from each other and banks holding similar types of assets--and argue that the latter is a potential source of systemic risk.
Can Yield Curve Inversions Be Predicted?
An inverted Treasury yield curve—a yield curve where short-term Treasury interest rates are higher than long-term Treasury interest rates—is a good predictor of recessions. Because of this, economists and policymakers often assess the risk of a yield curve inversion when the yield curve is flattening. I study the forecastability of yield curve inversions. Professional forecasters did not predict the beginning of the yield curve inversions prior to the 1990–1991, 2001, and 2008–2009 recessions.
The Impact of Merger Legislation on Bank Mergers
How do changes in merger control legislation affect merger activity in the banking sector? This is the question we investigate in our new research paper, The Impact of Changes in Merger Control Legislation on Bank Mergers. Using data on bank mergers and acquisitions in Europe, we find evidence that stricter merger control laws lead to an increase in the merger premium that target banks experience when an acquisition is announced.
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