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We study the effect of noisy infection (contact) and recovery rates on the distribution of outbreak sizes in the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered model.
Abstract Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with demographic noise, including the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its general extensions.
Loading metrics Open Access Peer-reviewed Research Article Jason Hindes , Simone Bianco, Ira B. Schwartz Jason Hindes, Simone Bianco, Ira B. Schwartz Published: January 6, 2021 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244706 Figures Abstract Without vaccines and treatments, societies must rely on non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies to control the spread of emerging diseases such as COVID-19.
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