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Articles by Jeffrey Roach
Credit Is Still Flowing, and Businesses Are Borrowing
Bank lending rarely commands the attention that payrolls, inflation or consumer spending do. But it helps determine how much momentum the economy can sustain. The Role of C&I Loans: Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, the workhorse of corporate finance, pay for everything from working capital to machinery and software. What Borrowing Signals: When banks are willing to lend and companies are eager to borrow, it suggests executives see enough opportunity ahead to put money to work.
Gloom in the Living Room
Gloom in the Living Room, Lock-In in the Housing Market, and a Fed Still Eyeing One More Hike The U.S. economy is handing investors a muddled picture. Housing is stuck, hiring is lopsided, and households feel worse than the jobs data suggest. Add a string of geopolitical shocks and a Federal Reserve (Fed) under new leadership still establishing its reaction function, and the signals markets rely on are harder to read. Investors will have to adjust to this market, where clarity is scarce.
Housing Lock-In, Weak Confidence and Fed Hikes Keep the Soft-Landing Story Fragile
The U.S. economy is handing investors a muddled picture. Housing is stuck, hiring is lopsided, and households feel worse than the jobs data suggest. Add a string of geopolitical shocks and a Federal Reserve (Fed) under new leadership still establishing its reaction function, and the signals markets rely on are harder to read. Investors will have to adjust to this market, where clarity is scarce.
Gloom In The Living Room
Gloom In The Living Room, Lock-In In The Housing Market, And A Fed Still Eyeing One More Hike The U.S. economy is handing investors a muddled picture. Housing is stuck, hiring is lopsided, and households feel worse than the jobs data suggest. Add a string of geopolitical shocks and a Federal Reserve (Fed) under new leadership still establishing its reaction function, and the signals markets rely on are harder to read. Investors will have to adjust to this market, where clarity is scarce.
A Hawkish Fed, a Two-Speed China, and the Thread That Connects Them
Washington's inflation fight and Beijing's growth problem are pulling the global economy in opposite directions — and investors are repricing both at once. The Federal Reserve (Fed) made something clear this week that markets had been reluctant to accept. Apparently, the easing cycle isn't paused, it's over for now.
What History Says About Fed Hikes and Stocks
A hot CPI print. Friday's slightly hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) report lifted the bond market's odds of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this week to near 90%. Markets take it in stride. The positive reactions from stocks and bonds were interesting, suggesting that perhaps market participants have been more worried about rate hikes than they should have been (though the S&P 500 is only about 2% off its all-time high). What history tells us.
美联储下周加息概率超70% 通胀压力三重来袭
美联储将于9月15日至16日召开议息会议。一系列不利于通胀的因素很可能促使该央行在下周加息。而且根据周四的市场定价，除了下周，年底前可能还会再加息一次。 在周四公布的报告显示美国8月批发价格超预期，同时美国原油价格突破每桶100美元之后，据CME“美联储观察”，交易员们将下周加息的概率推高至70%上方，较此前一日的约60%大幅攀升。 交易员还将12月再度加息的概率推高至近60%，因为通胀形势被证明粘性十足，越来越可能引发央行采取紧缩行动。 “随着与伊朗的冲突持续时间长于许多人的预期，通胀压力正变得越来越根深蒂固，投资者正在寻找一个足够有力的催化剂来改变通胀叙事，”LPL Financial首席经济学家Jeffrey Roach写道。“照这个趋势来看，下周加息是很有可能的”。 三重压力来袭 北京时间周四晚20点30分，美国劳工统计局公布的追踪批发成本的美国8月生产者价格指数（PPI）数据呈现能源价格推高整体通胀，但剔除食品和能源口径的核心PPI依然温和的局面。美国8月整体PPI环比上涨0.4%，符合预期；同比上涨5.4%，略高于预期的5.3%。...
Shifting Leadership in Global Growth
Talking Points Global growth is stabilizing, but leadership has shifted back to developed markets. The U.S. and parts of Europe are driving the latest improvement in business activity, while several large emerging markets have lost momentum after a strong start to the year. BRICS economies are mixed as India outpaces the others.
China Holds Keys to Post-War Oil Prices
Key Talking Points Global growth remains uneven, with the U.S. economy continuing to outperform while China faces softer demand and a less consistent recovery. For an in-depth outlook, consult the July Economic Navigator. China's sharp decline in crude oil imports has helped offset some of the oil price pressures stemming from Middle East tensions, suggesting demand weakness is currently balancing supply risks.
Kevin Warsh Could Shake Up the Fed
LPL Research examines Warsh’s evolving Fed approach, infrastructure-led growth, and the impact of China demand on oil prices. A hawkish debut. At his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh paired a hawkish, minimalist tone — tersely emphasizing price stability — with the launch of five task forces to review key aspects of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. Many Fed governors want to follow the Bank of Japan’s lead and hike rates in the near term. Uncertainty in projections.
Kevin Warsh Could Shake Up The Fed
LPL Research examines Warsh’s evolving Fed approach, infrastructure-led growth and the impact of China demand on oil prices. A hawkish debut. At his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh paired a hawkish, minimalist tone—tersely emphasizing price stability—with the launch of five task forces to review key aspects of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. Many Fed governors want to follow the Bank of Japan’s lead and hike rates in the near term. Uncertainty in projections.
Low Chinese Demand for Foreign Oil Keeping Prices Low
Will Oil Prices Return to Pre-War Levels? It Depends on China’s Economic Growth One of the key questions for investment professionals is whether oil prices will return to pre-war levels once the Middle East crisis is resolved. At the same time, many are asking why oil prices are not higher, especially since the latest geopolitical deal recently pushed crude to its lowest level since the initial attack.
How AI May Increase Jobs, Not Replace Them
From the April payroll report released on May 8, we realize that not all industries are equally impacted by AI. Diagnostic imaging centers, an area where AI is thought to replace humans, have increased demand for workers, whereas bookkeeping demand has declined in recent years.
Why AI May Reshape Jobs More Than Eliminate Them
From the April released on May 8, we realize that not all industries are equally impacted by AI. Diagnostic imaging centers, an area where AI is thought to replace humans, have increased demand for workers, whereas bookkeeping demand has declined in recent years.
Energy Shock Expected to Hit Prices Harder Than the Economy
Headlines surrounding the Middle East have dominated investor attention since late February. While uncertainty remains elevated, diplomatic negotiations have supported equities, even as fixed income and commodity markets continue to reflect potential risks. Economic Resilience Amid Headwinds: Recent economic data suggest the U.S. economy muddles on, though supply chain disruptions, higher shipping costs, and elevated energy prices are current headwinds.
Energy Shock Expected to Hit Prices Harder Than the Economy
Source: LPL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 05/13/26 Disclosures: Forecasts may not materialize as predicted and are subject to change as additional data is published The key risk is that the Middle East conflict turns what might have been a temporary energy shock into a more persistent inflation event.
American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?
by Tom Shipp, Head of Equity Research, and Jeffrey J. Roach, Chief Economist, LPL Financial The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about.
American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?
The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base.
Seven Takeaways from Warsh Confirmation Hearing
Kevin Warsh's bid to become the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unfolded amid sharp political tension, legal uncertainty, and pointed questions about his independence from President Trunp.
The Economy Takes Multiple Shocks in Stride
Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement. While a positive breakthrough, it may still be a little too early to sound the ‘all clear’ as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.
Why Oil Prices Matter Less — But Still Move Headline Inflation
Lower oil “intensity” — less oil used per dollar of economic output — means energy shocks have a smaller impact on growth than in past decades. And from the supply side, the U.S. is now a net exporter of petroleum products. Because we produce more than we import, the economy is less affected by volatile oil prices than during the 1970s and ‘80s, for example. Despite less reliance on oil, higher oil prices will add pressure to inflation.
Competitors to the Greenback Are Less Significant
by Jeffrey Roach, PhD, Chief Economist, LPL Financial Hypothetical Scenario Letâs develop a scenario to explain the importance of foreign exchange (FX) markets and specifically, the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Say, for example, Thailand, one of the worldâs major rice exporters, engages in trade with Brazil, the secondâlargest cotton exporter. When these two countries conduct bilateral trade, they typically do not settle transactions directly in Thai baht or Brazilian real.
Competitors to the Greenback Are Less Significant
Hypothetical Scenario Let’s develop a scenario to explain the importance of foreign exchange (FX) markets and specifically, the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Say, for example, Thailand, one of the world’s major rice exporters, engages in trade with Brazil, the second‑largest cotton exporter. When these two countries conduct bilateral trade, they typically do not settle transactions directly in Thai baht or Brazilian real.
US Dollar Dominance Still Anchors Global FX Despite De-Dollarization Talk
Let’s develop a scenario to explain the importance of foreign exchange (FX) markets and specifically, the dominance of the . Say, for example, Thailand, one of the world’s major rice exporters, engages in trade with Brazil, the second-largest cotton exporter. When these two countries conduct bilateral trade, they typically do not settle transactions directly in Thai baht or Brazilian real.
Kevin Warsh Is Committed to Reigning in Fed
Key Points: In an April 2025 speech [1], Kevin Warsh laid out a few important concepts that will likely define his leadership goals at the Federal Reserve (Fed) if he is confirmed as expected. According to Warsh, the Fed has expanded far beyond its statutory remit, from fiscal interventions (e.g., persistent quantitative easing) to political and cultural issues (climate, inclusion), weakening credibility and independence.
Kevin Warsh Is Committed To Reigning In Fed
Key Points: • In an April 2025 speech, Kevin Warsh laid out a few important concepts that will likely define his leadership goals at the Federal Reserve (Fed) if he is confirmed as expected. • According to Warsh, the Fed has expanded far beyond its statutory remit, from fiscal interventions (e.g., persistent quantitative easing) to political and cultural issues (climate, inclusion), weakening credibility and independence.
Powering Economic Growth in 2026
Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long‑run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Beyond containing inflation, faster productivity growth also helps offset structural headwinds from slowing population growth, a shrinking labor force, and an expanding retiree cohort.
The Productivity Advantage: Powering Economic Growth In 2026
Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long-run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Beyond containing inflation, faster productivity growth also helps offset structural headwinds from slowing population growth, a shrinking labor force, and an expanding retiree cohort.
Money Velocity Picks Up: Why Investors Should Care
Additional content provided by Brian Booe, Associate Analyst, Research. As investors stepped away from the tape to hang their final holiday decorations, pack their bags to visit loved ones, and prepare for the New Year, markets fell quiet over the last two weeks of 2025.
Money Velocity Picks Up: Why Investors Should Care
by Jeffrey Roach, PhD, Chief Economist, LPL Financial Additional content provided by Brian Booe, Associate Analyst, Research. As investors stepped away from the tape to hang their final holiday decorations, pack their bags to visit loved ones, and prepare for the New Year, markets fell quiet over the last two weeks of 2025.
Evaluating our 2025 Forecasts: Equity, Fixed Income, and the U.S. Economy
With 2025 behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate some of our better forecasts from last year while also reviewing some misses we can learn from. In our view, we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses among our tactical asset allocation recommendations.
Oil Markets Stay Calm as Venezuela Shock Hits Politics More Than Supply Math
Roughly 50% of Venezuela’s exports head to the U.S., making this Latin American economy heavily dependent on healthy trade relations with the U.S. China only receives 10% of total Venezuelan exports. The remaining top five export partners are Spain (9%), Brazil (6%) and Turkey (5%). 1 One of the founding members of OPEC, Venezuela is a key player in global supply of crude oil with an economy uniquely exposed to oil markets.
Headwinds and Tailwinds to the Outlook
Key Points: U.S. government funding currently runs out for most agencies on January 30, 2026, so it behooves investors to have a playbook for the next round of shutdowns. Going behind the scenes of the annual outlook, we explore the various headwinds and tailwinds that will likely shape the economy in 2026. On balance, the tailwinds should overpower and set the backdrop for above-trend growth next year.
US Economy Heads Into 2026 With Shutdown Risk but Strong Policy and AI Tailwinds
U.S. government funding currently runs out for most agencies on January 30, 2026, so it behooves investors to have a playbook for the next round of shutdowns. Going behind the scenes of the annual outlook, we explore the various headwinds and tailwinds that will likely shape the economy in 2026. On balance, the tailwinds should overpower and set the backdrop for above-trend growth next year.
Chart Check Into Year-End
by Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist, LPL Research The S&P 500 clawed back from nearly a 5% deficit in November to finish the month with a modest 0.1% gain. The rebound was fueled by strong earnings, renewed optimism around artificial intelligence (AI), hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, and a significant repricing of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut expectations.
Early Market Keys to 2026
by Adam Turnquist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Jeffrey Roach, Lawrence Gillum, LPL Research In a year that could easily be defined by a few different words ‚ÄĒ including but not limited to tariffs, technology, or more broadly, uncertainty ‚ÄĒ capital markets have plugged along splendidly. Despite a near-bear market correction in April, the S&P 500 and U.S. stocks more broadly have powered higher, hurdling obstacles nearly without interruption.
Early Market Keys to 2026
Economy: AI Adoption Rates on the Rise, Potentially Pressuring Labor Markets Considering a Fed in the middle of an easing cycle — largely driven by cooling jobs data — the labor market will remain a focal point for investors in 2026. But recent job cuts data point to somewhat of a new consideration for the labor market heading into 2026: AI.
AI Adoption Rates Will Likely Rise From Here
Key Points: Roughly 20% of October layoff announcements were attributed to artificial intelligence (AI) alone. Overall, cost-cutting drove 33% of all layoff announcements. Interestingly, businesses are not reporting weaker economic conditions or slower sales as major reasons to announce layoffs. Small and medium businesses have a lot more upside to AI adoption rates in the years to come. Within sectors, healthcare and retail trade have surprisingly low adoption rates.
AI Drives 1 in 5 October Layoffs as Firms Cut Costs and Boost Automation
Key Points: Roughly 20% of October layoff announcements were attributed to artificial intelligence (AI) alone. Overall, cost-cutting drove 33% of all layoff announcements. Interestingly, businesses are not reporting weaker economic conditions or slower sales as major reasons to announce layoffs. Small and medium businesses have a lot more upside to AI adoption rates in the years to come. Within sectors, healthcare and retail trade have surprisingly low adoption rates.
AI Adoption Rates Will Likely Rise From Here
Key Points: Roughly 20% of October layoff announcements were attributed to artificial intelligence (AI) alone. Overall, cost-cutting drove 33% of all layoff announcements. Interestingly, businesses are not reporting weaker economic conditions or slower sales as major reasons to announce layoffs. Small and medium businesses have a lot more upside to AI adoption rates in the years to come. Within sectors, healthcare and retail trade have surprisingly low adoption rates.
A New Pillar of Economic Growth
Artificial intelligence (AI) makes daily headlines, and investors are questioning if businesses’ AI-related investment can continue at this pace. The money spent on data centers, software, and other AI-related investments reveal the structural shifts occurring in the economy. The latest on Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Loans gives us insights into the sustainability of this trend.
AI Infrastructure: A New Pillar of Economic Growth
Artificial intelligence (AI) makes daily headlines, and investors are questioning if businesses’ AI-related investment can continue at this pace. The money spent on data centers, software, and other AI-related investments reveal the structural shifts occurring in the economy. The latest on Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Loans gives us insights into the sustainability of this trend.
No Risk-Free Path
First Cut of the Year At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, marking the first rate reduction of the year after eight months of holding steady.
Grand Ideas at the Grand Tetons
by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, and Jeffrey Roach, PhD, LPL Financial As central bankers, economists, and policymakers gathered last weekend in Wyomingâs Grand Teton National Park for the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the Federal Reserve (Fed) found itself at a critical juncture marked by political pressures, personnel changes, and internal divisions over monetary policy direction.
Grand Ideas at the Grand Teton
The Broader Fixed Income Perspective Historical patterns suggest that Jackson Hole speeches often create ripple effects through fixed income markets, with 2-year Treasury yields serving as the most sensitive barometer of Fed policy expectations. While markets have rallied in anticipation of dovish signals from Powell, the post-Jackson Hole period frequently delivers surprises that reverse initial reactions.
Why Time in the Market Beats Timing It: Lessons from 75 Years of Data Original
During times like these when geopolitical headlines can be unsettling for investors, we like to remind ourselves of one of our key investing principles. Markets have always faced challenges —ranging from geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns to natural disasters, political upheaval and health crises. These events often trigger short-term volatility and shake investor confidence.
Tariffs and Market Volatility Likely to Stick
by Adam Turnquist, Jeffrey Roach, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Lawrence Gillum, LPL Financial LPL Research discusses recent tariff news, what direction the Trump administration might go in next, and potential market implications. There has been no shortage of trade policy curveballs thrown at the market since the White House announced shockingly high reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
Finding Clues in the Upcoming Jobs Report Original
Hot Takes Long-term unemployed as a percent of total unemployed is four percentage points higher than pre-pandemic, a potential harbinger of things to come. Trade tensions put pressure on manufacturers, driving up delivery times and prices paid, according to the latest ISM survey. The stable job market is providing the necessary support for an economy filled with uncertainty, but watch out for early signs of weakness, such as the rising ratio of long-term unemployed.
Finding Clues In The Upcoming Jobs Report
Hot Takes: • Long-term unemployed as a percent of total unemployed is four percentage points higher than pre-pandemic, a potential harbinger of things to come. • Trade tensions put pressure on manufacturers, driving up delivery times and prices paid, according to the latest ISM survey. • The stable job market is providing the necessary support for an economy filled with uncertainty, but watch out for early signs of weakness, such as the rising ratio of long-term unemployed.
Market Uncertainty Persists, But a Recession May Not Be Imminent
If you believe the latest survey data, whether it’s from the or from the , you would think the economy is on the cusp of a recession. Granted, the decline in confidence for both consumers and businesses is significant and not to be ignored. A change in feelings about the economic backdrop is often a harbinger of things to come and precedes a downshift in consumer spending and business investment.
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