Jennifer Duke
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Associate editor @CapitalBrief. Sees feelingly, finds it hard to hate up close. Takes pleasure in the ridiculous. My opinions change when the facts do. Vegan.
Articles by Jennifer Duke
Grattan Institute calls for GST hike, income tax cuts for budget sustainability
The income tax cuts would be the largest in two decades and help shift the tax burden onto consumption taxes and away from income taxes. The context: As part of the proposal, Grattan notes the GST deal with WA, struck in 2018, would need to be scrapped. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has ruled out changing this deal, despite a report from the Productivity Commission suggesting it should be removed and economists opposing the arrangement.
Daniel Mulino says quick credit card ban was ‘ATO’s call’
Mulino said the ATO “made the call in late-September that there should be a two-month transition period”. Mulino said the government “then received feedback that that wasn’t sufficient”. This resulted in the extension on the transition period until the end of the financial year. He said the government “rightly left the detailed design and implementation of the surcharge ban and the ATOs dealing of this to the RBA and the ATO respectively”.
Existing copyright protections ‘absolutely fundamental’: Tim Ayres
Make us a preferred source Make us a preferred source on Google 8:30am on 18 October 2026 The news: Industry Minister Tim Ayres has doubled down on the importance of existing copyright rules, saying they are “fundamental” and Australia will remain an attractive location for AI investment while ensuring these protections are retained.
‘Fine tune the messaging’: RBA’s Andrew Hauser to deliver critical signal ahead of November rate decision
When Hauser last spoke publicly, to the ABC on 8 September ahead of the board’s decision to increase rates, expectations for a hike lifted quickly after he emphasised inflation remained too high and questioned whether the RBA had done enough or if there was “more needed”. Economists are now wondering whether his upcoming appearance, at Citi’s Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference on Wednesday, will result in some similarly pointed comments.
Auction clearance rate dips below 50%: Cotality
The news: The preliminary auction clearance rate for the nation’s combined capitals fell below 50% for the second consecutive weekend, with Cotality data showing a 48.8% result. The numbers: There were 1,781 auctions held across the combined capitals and Cotality had recorded results for 1,208 by 1:04pm Sunday AEDT. Of those measured auctions, 589 sold at auction and 619 did not. Sydney’s preliminary auction clearance rate was 52.9% on 431 results, with 228 selling under the hammer.
‘Absolutely confident’ migration plans will be budget neutral: Angus Taylor
9:36am on 11 October 2026 The news: Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has doubled down saying he is “very confident” his migration plans will be budget neutral, arguing that the standards will be raised as the numbers are cut. Last week, Taylor said the Coalition would sharply cut migration. But he has declined to share the Opposition’s full analysis and it has not been fully costed.
Tony Burke warns Opposition, One Nation migration plans would ‘smash the economy’
One Nation is pushing for net arrivals to be cut to 130,000 annually following a net negative migration period. Burke opposed both of his political rivals’ suggested policies and pushed back on suggestions the Albanese government has continually failed to his its forecast migration figures. Last financial year net migration was above 300,000 and Labor is intending to bring the figures to 245,000 this financial year.
Unemployment tipped to hold steady amid RBA warning labour market is too tight
The data: Overseas arrivals and departures, August, Australian Bureau of Statistics When: Tuesday 13 October 2026 The data: Labour force, September, Australian Bureau of Statistics When: Thursday 15 October 2026 What to expect: In the most recent data, for August, there was a strong 39,000 rise in employment, which surprised economists to the upside significantly, while the jobless rate increased to 4.6%.
Persons of interest
Hiking interest rates to a 15-year high was never likely to be Michele Bullock’s most popular decision. Even before she announced the highly anticipated 25-basis-point increase to 4.60%, the headlines were excoriating. News Corp warned that a “dire” mortgage reality was setting in, with the “wrong people” being punished. Nine newspapers warned the increase would leave Australia with the highest policy rate in the developed world, bar one.
‘Conditions are clear’: Iran warns of deadlock after US rejects peace proposal
Make us a preferred source Make us a preferred source on Google 10:23am on 27 September 2026 The news: Iran has yet to formally receive US President Donald Trump’s rejection of its peace proposal but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said, in a social media post, that only “a negotiated solution” can ease the deadlock between the two nations.
Jane Hume warns against criminal action after OpenAI breach
9:35am on 27 September 2026 The news: Deputy Opposition Leader Jane Hume has warned against threatening significant legal action against OpenAI after rogue AI agents breached an Australian government website. Speaking on ABC Insiders on Sunday morning AEST, Hume said US frontier AI companies are those Australia should be fostering relationships with rather than threatening. “AI is inevitably going to be a part of Australia’s future.
Richard Marles ‘confident’ highly sensitive government information has top security against AI breaches
8:31am on 27 September 2026 The news: Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles said he is “confident” highly sensitive government data has the best security possible to defend against breaches from AI agents. Speaking on News24 on Sunday morning AEST, Marles noted that the recent breach did not involve Australians’ personal data and the impact is relatively “minor”, but he repeated that the incident was serious.
Recession risks rise as Reserve Bank poised for rate increase
The RBA is widely expected to hike rates on Tuesday. If more rate rises follow some economists are warning about an economic contraction. RBA governor Michele Bullock is expected to provide a hawkish outlook on rates. AAP Image/Susie Dodds. The Reserve Bank is widely expected to increase rates by 25 basis points when the board meets this week. But with two, and potentially more, increases also pencilled in the risk of a recession is rising.
Unemployment rate lifts to 4.6%: ABS
Make us a preferred source Make us a preferred source on Google 11:36am on 24 September 2026 The news: The unemployment rate lifted to 4.6% in August, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. There was a 39,500 rise in employed people during the period. Economists were expecting joblessness to remain at 4.5%, where it has been steady since June, with a 20,000 rise in employment. The numbers: Hours worked lifted by 14 million hours in August. It fell by a similar figure in July.
AI could lead to ‘difficult’ period with higher unemployment: RBA governor
2:14pm on 22 September 2026 The news: Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has warned Australia could face a “difficult” period where unemployment will be higher as the result of the rapid development of AI.
Australia’s industrial base to be completely transformed in new AI era: Jim Chalmers
10:30pm on 20 September 2026 The news: Treasurer Jim Chalmers is set to tell Australians that the nation’s industrial base will be completely transformed by technology, such as AI, over the next four decades. Chalmers is due to make these remarks at the ANU on Monday as he releases the 2026 Intergenerational Report (IGR). The context: This will be the seventh IGR and the second released under the Albanese government.
Anthony Albanese launches campaign for United Nations Security Council seat
10:00pm on 20 September 2026 The news: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has launched a campaign for Australia to serve a two-year term on the United Nations Security Council, from 2029 to 2030. The context: The campaign has been launched with the slogan: “We listen. We partner. We protect.” Members will be elected in June 2028. There are 15 in total, of which 10 are non-permanent and five are elected each year for two-year terms. Candidates are required to secure a two-thirds majority of 193 members.
Anthony Albanese calls for US, China to cooperate on AI development
9:27am on 20 September 2026 The news: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he agrees with calls for the US and China to cooperate on AI development. Albanese, appearing on ABC Insiders from the US where he is seeking international cooperation to regulate artificial intelligence, said he wants to see the two global superpowers work closely to ensure safe AI development. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei also recently called for more cooperation between the two global superpowers.
‘Confronting’ but ‘not pessimistic’: Jim Chalmers warns of poor productivity growth but AI opportunities
8:35am on 20 September 2026 The news: Treasurer Jim Chalmers has revealed the upcoming Intergenerational Report (IGR), to be fully released on Monday, will reveal “very serious economic risks, very serious budget pressures, but also very substantial advantages as well”, saying it is “confronting” reading but “not a pessimistic report”.
The RBA faces ‘difficult decision’ with just days to deliver final market signals
The news: In more immediate concerns for the economy, economists are increasingly flagging the risk of earlier rate rises. And the Reserve Bank’s days are running out quickly to make any final signals to a market overwhelmingly expecting a September rate rise. On Friday, UBS and Westpac and are now expecting a September rate rise. UBS expects two rate rises.
‘Stunned’: Albanese hits back at Pauline Hanson’s criticisms of his mother
Make us a preferred source Make us a preferred source on Google 11:29am on 13 September 2026 The news: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has hit back at One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson’s criticism of his late mother’s lengthy tenure in public housing, saying he is “stunned” by the comments.
Anika Wells signals openness to digital duty of care changes
“I will say it is your choice, and people make those choices for valid reasons ... That’s your choice as an adult. We’re not here to police that, but we do want Australia to have a choice. And at the moment, we’re all subject to a private ranking system that you did not choose and you cannot inspect, and that’s what we’re trying to fix here.” Wells outlined the limits on the rules around removing harmful material. “Firstly, I must consult with the eSafety commissioner.
'Weaponised and politicised': Andrew Hastie slams Pauline Hanson for handling of war crimes case
"I'm not happy with that at all," he said. The context: Asked about his perspective on reports Gina Rinehart had described him as a traitor, Hastie said: "I don't really have a view. We're not friends, obviously." Hastie also rubbished suggestions he was hitting back now at One Nation because he has leadership ambitions. "I think that's ridiculous. I think Angus Taylor is the leader. I've supported him. Judge me by my actions, and I've shown loyalty to Angus since he became leader.
Low-rate era is firmly over as markets brace for central bank hikes
Economists are near-certain interest rates are on the rise. But would three RBA hikes be an overreaction? Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem (left), Fed chair Kevin Warsh (center) and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey (right) at Jackson Hole in August. AAP Image/AP/Amber Baesler. Interest rate rises are firmly back in vogue. Or, as ANZ put it in a recent note, “the post-GFC era of low rates is over”. Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
The forgotten policy making the RBA’s inflation fight harder
Government spending, wars, and AI have all been blamed for persistent inflation. But there could be another, simpler factor. The Reserve Bank is tasked by the government to balance a dual mandate of targeting 2% to 3% inflation and full employment. AAP Image/Lukas Coch. The Reserve Bank has failed to get inflation back to target for five years.
Jonathon Duniam backs crackdown on algorithms provided ‘balance’ struck on free speech
But, he said, provided “the detail stacks up and it doesn’t unnecessarily impede on people’s rights and freedoms” then he was supportive of action on regulating algorithms when it affects young people. “Empowering parents to do the same for those that are in their custody, their kids, should absolutely be something we consider,” he said.
Matt Thistlethwaite warns against ‘tit for tat’ retaliations after US strikes Iranian oil tankers
Make us a preferred source Make us a preferred source on Google 8:53am on 6 September 2026 The news: Assistant Minister for Immigration, Foreign Affairs and Trade Matt Thistlethwaite has pushed back against “tit for tat” strikes in the US-Iran conflict. Appearing on News24, shortly after news of fresh US strikes on three Iranian tankers, Thistlethwaite said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had raised the conflict with US President Donald Trump during a recent call.
Angus Taylor denies cutting tobacco excise will lead to rise in smokers
"The price of cigarettes in this country is already down around that $15 a pack or less, and we see that in the numbers: 80% and rising of the market is illegal. So that's the price of cigarettes in the country," he said. Taylor also said the policy "has nothing to do" with One Nation, which suggested a 75% excise cut on tobacco compared to the 80% cut pitched by the Coalition. Instead, he said it was a policy designed to better Australians.
Rate cuts in 2027 are expected to stop property price falls. What if the RBA doesn’t ease?
Economists are now expecting one of the largest housing downturns on record with growing uncertainty about when it might end. Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser will be the top central bank official appearing this week. AAP Image/Lukas Coch. Economists will be keeping a close eye on scheduled remarks from Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser and assistant governor economic Sarah Hunter this week for clues about where interest rates are heading.
Lab partners
Australia’s position as a global innovation leader could be at risk if the government continues to restrict research collaborations with countries like China, some of the nation’s most senior academic figures have warned. Parliament last month passed legislation imposing tougher restrictions on Australian researchers seeking to work with some overseas universities.
Government eyeing opt-in algorithms for social media giants
She said that a young boy setting up a social media account would take “an average of 23 minutes for you to be fed misogynistic, violent misogynistic content online”.
Barnaby Joyce links historic One Nation WA win to federal tax changes
“Australia shouldn’t be happy with that because it depresses the entrepreneurial flair of this nation, which is so vital if we’re going to try and get on top of a $1 trillion debt. The way you get on top of a $1 trillion debt is you have people make more money.” The context: On the weekend, One Nation won the former Labor stronghold seat of Secret Harbour in Western Australia in a state government byelection, the party’s first WA lower house seat.
‘A challenging quarter’: Productivity tipped to fall, economic growth uncertain
The latest economic scorecard could prove bruising reading for the government and has interest rate-watchers on high alert. Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week. The data: Australian National Accounts: National income, expenditure and product, June 2026, Australian Bureau of Statistics When: Wednesday 2 September 2026 What to expect: The market is expecting around 0.4% quarterly growth in GDP over the second quarter, or 1.9% over the year.
David Farley confirms One Nation’s migration target similar to federal government plan
The context: The federal government’s target is 245,000 for 2026-27 and 225,000 for each of the two years following. “But the reality is, where do we need them? We don’t need them in the great urban metroplex. We need them out to be productive, working in agriculture, engineering, mining, etc,” Farley said. Data centres: Farley said Australia needs to stay contemporary on data centres. “What I’m opposed to is poor planning, and I think Australia needs to go with the trend of data centers.
‘Complete disaster’: Sarah Henderson warns renters to bear the brunt of housing market change
On Sunday,Henderson doubled down on Taylor’s comments. “We know that we have a dramatic shortage of houses in this country, of course, driven by mass migration in this country, Labor’s reckless mismanagement of our migration program ... But for Australians and those renters who are facing these dramatically increased rents, it is just a complete disaster,” she said. “We have seen confidence in the housing market completely diving.
Inflation may have eased last month but a November rate rise remains a risk
The data: Consumer Price Index, July 2026, Australian Bureau of Statistics When: Wednesday 26 August 2026 What to expect: ’s consensus figures from economists sits at 3.3% for headline CPI year-on-year and 3.5% for the trimmed mean. This would represent a step down from June on both measures (3.8% and 3.6% respectively) but economists are widely pointing out that the underlying trimmed mean measure is expected to ease only slightly, despite the significant softening in the headline figure.
Government ‘confident’ it can secure agreement with Coalition on NDIS
The context: McAllister said the main issues for the government are to take on board the evidence received through the inquiry process into changes to the scheme, as well as taking on board feedback from across the parliament and considering additional actions in relation to fraud. Asked whether the government would consider delaying removing anyone from the scheme until supports are ready. She said she was clear supports needed to be in play.
Pauline Hanson says she doesn’t believe skilled migration figures, accuses government of lying
“The government has lied to us.” She said a business owner told her that they asked a worker where they got their trade and the migrant said, “on YouTube”. The context: Net migration is currently around 300,000 a year. Hanson is pushing for net migration of about 130,000 a year, with an annual review. She confirmed she also wants to see a significant cut in international students but declined to put a figure on it during the interview.
Wages expected to keep falling behind inflation as unemployment holds steady
Sliding living standards will be a key issue as fresh data brings wages growth and the labour market into sharp focus. Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
Hitting home
When Westpac told the ASX this morning that mortgage applications had dropped 18% for owner-occupiers and 26% for investors since the federal budget was handed down, the market reaction was predictably severe. Shares in the lender tumbled 5.9%, dragging the other majors down with it. Commonwealth Bank, ANZ and NAB all fell by around 2%. This is Australia, where any sign of softness in the property market attracts a sharp response.
SA Premier signs MoU with OpenAI
The news: South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas has signed a memorandum of understanding with OpenAI co-founder and president Greg Brockman. It is reportedly the first deal of its kind between an Australian state or territory government and an AI company, with AAP noting Malinauskas is due to return to Australia from the US on Friday.
News media bargaining code: Sarah Hanson-Young questions how to tackle AI
The context: Hanson-Young, who has previously called for a moratorium on new data centres until frameworks are in place, said there needed to be “an ironclad guarantee” that data centres pay for and provide their own renewable energy and water are legislated. “AI and data centres are the new extractive industry and we made this mistake already,” she said. “We let the gas companies off the hook and now hear them crying blue murder when you talk about taxing their gas exports.
Labor Senator denies One Nation popularity affecting migration plans
The context: Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke delayed a speech at the National Press Club last week, with details to be finalised soon. McAllister said that skilled migration is “incredibly significant for our economy and we’ve already taken a lot of steps”. “We’ve tripled the number of construction workers who’ve got visas since coming to government.
Rates are likely to be on hold this week. Here’s why economists don’t agree what happens next
When Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock fronts the public this week, she is expected to continue to warn the central bank is ready to increase rates if needed. But economists are markedly split about whether another rate rise is on the cards or not. Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
Professional networking sites lose News Bargaining Incentive carve-out
Changes to the News Journalism Payment Scheme include broadening the definition of journalists, establishing a grants program for small publishers and startups using 5% of NBI funds raised, and a 20% uplift for regional-based journalists and small- to medium-sized publishers. There were 85 submissions made about the exposure draft legislation.
Capital city property prices fell 0.9% in July: Cotality
The news: Australia’s home values fell 0.7% in July, according to Cotality’s latest data, with capital city property prices declining 0.9% and regional areas down 0.2%. The slump marks the largest decline since 2022. The numbers: Sydney led the declines, with dwelling prices down 1.4% over the month. Melbourne followed with a 1.2% decline while Canberra prices dropped 1%. Brisbane values were down 0.6% and Adelaide slumped 0.2%.
Jim Chalmers tells ACCC to ramp up petrol price scrutiny
“The restoration of excise rates to normal settings cannot be used as a pretext for false, misleading or otherwise unjustified price increases.” Separately, the Australian Automobile Association’s EV Index released on Sunday evening shows electric vehicle sales doubled in the three months to 30 June to 69,414 sales. This was the biggest quarterly increase, with almost half of the quarter’s new car sales classified as electric or hybrid.
Donald Trump cancels Iran attack to ‘rapidly make a deal’
Briefing Global disruption Make us a preferred source Make us a preferred source on Google 2:58pm on 2 August 2026 The news: US President Donald Trump has agreed to cancel his plans to attack Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a deal”. The context: Trump, writing on Truth Social on Sunday afternoon AEST, said the deal would need to include an “end to Iran’s nuclear threat” as well as the total opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Jane Hume says Opposition ‘will not be governing with One Nation’
The context: Hume said the Liberals’ intention “is to win outright, and we do that by making sure that we present a credible plan and a credible team to deliver that plan”. “That’s exactly what Angus Taylor and I have been doing for the last 23, 24 weeks that he has been the leader, and that’s what we’ll continue to do for the next 18 months prior to the federal election,” she said.
‘Get back to situation normal’: Government calls for US-Iran war resolution as fuel relief ends
“So, our government’s been very firm for months now, this conflict needs to end and the parties need to get back to the negotiating table and finalise an agreement to do that.” The context: Over the weekend, the US State Department warned Americans in the Middle East to consider leaving, or prepare to depart, if there is an escalation in tensions with the US planning fresh strikes on Iran.
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