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Articles by John Kich
US Conducts Successful Field Test Of New Nuclear Bomb
In mid-April, we reported that "just as tensions over North Korea's nuclear program and potential US airstrikes run wild, the NNSA said that in conjunction with the US Air Force, it had completed the first qualification flight test of B61-12 gravity nuclear bomb on March 14 at the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada." Four months later, and just as concerns over North Korea's provocative launches have send shockwaves across global markets - again - the US National Nuclear Security Administration...
EIA Weekly Oil Report Analysis and Commentary 6-9-2016 (Video)
More and more this environment feels like late 2007/ early 2008
Pity Poor China: There's No Easy Fix To The S-Curve
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog, This decline is inevitable in fast-expanding economies that depended on export growth and investment booms. The fundamental context of China's economy is that it has traced out an S-Curve - as did previous fast-developing nations such as Japan and South Korea. Gordon Long and I discuss why there's no easy fix to the S-Curve in our new video discussion Bull in the China Shop (35:25).
Dis-May-Day - Bonds Down, Dollar Down, Oil Down, Gold Down, Economy Down... Stocks Up
China data weakens, Puerto Rico defaults, Japan falls, crude drops, another E&P company defaults, failed M&A deal, US macro data dumps... and stocks surge... US equities went up today... because why not...just a little too uniformly post-EU Close... Thanks to a brief USDJPY momentum igntion as Construction Spending, and ISM and PMI all missed expectations...
Atlantic City Avoids First NJ Municipal Default Since Great Depression, Makes $1.8 Million Bond Payment
Update: it is only Puerto Rico who will be on the default docket today because in the last possible minute, Atlantic City's mayor Don Guardian announced that his city had made the required $1.8 million in interest payments due May 1, averting what would have been New Jersey’s first municipal default since the Great Depression as state lawmakers bicker over how to assist the troubled gaming hub.
Frontrunning: April 28
German utilities will be asked to pay 23.3 billion euros ($26.38 billion) into a state fund to cover the costs of nuclear waste storage, members of a nuclear commission tasked with securing funds for the country's nuclear exit said on Wednesday. Billionaire financier Andre Esteves, who was ousted as head of Brazil's Grupo BTG Pactual SA in November after his arrest in a spiraling corruption probe, has returned to Latin America's largest independent investment bank in a senior advisory role.
Deflector Shields Up!
Submitted by Tim Knight from Slope of Hope on 04/27/2016 10:53 -0400 I saw this article this morning, and this bit really irked me: It isn't the fact he's been stone cold wrong. Hell, I've been wrong countless times. But I don't make a point of claiming I had a position that I didn't really have. (To say nothing of trying to deflect one's foibles by attempting to positively associate oneself with "Lord John Maynard Keynes" whom, incidentally, was a pretty dreadful trader too).
Cyber Fraud At SWIFT - $81 Million Stolen From Central Bank
Swift, the vital global financial network that western financial services companies, institutions and banks use for all payments and transfer billions of dollars every day, warned its customers yesterday evening that it was aware of cyber fraud and a number of recent "cyber incidents” where attackers had sent fraudulent messages over its system and $81 million was apparently stolen from a central bank.
Stocks Could Easily Plunge 24% in the Next Three Months
Is the stock market setting up for a Crash? For the first time since the 2009 bottom, Earnings Per Share (EPS) have diverged sharply to the downside from stocks. There are a lot of reasons why investors buy stocks… but at the end of the day, they all boil down to earnings: the company is only a sound investment if it actually makes money. The above chart shows us that earnings recently peaked and have diverged sharply from stock prices.
In Shocking Finding, The Bank Of Japan Is Now A Top 10 Holder In 90% Of Japanese Stocks
The latest shocking example of just how intertwined central banks have become in not only Treasury and corporate bond markets and "valuations", but also in equities comes courtesy of the Bank of Japan which days ahead of an announcement which may see it double its ETF purchases from the current JPY3.3 trillion to JPY7 trillion or more (if Goldman is correct) has been revealed to be a top 10 holder in about 90% of all Japanese stocks! As Bloomberg puts it, "they may not realize it yet, but...
What The Charts Say: No Bull - The Evidence
Sorry folks, it’s not a bull market. Not yet. The evidence I’ll outline indicates it may be too early to celebrate. I know the headlines are dominated by calls for new highs to come, a bull market in full swing ready to break out of a multi year consolidation. I’ve recently outlined the technical target should a sustained breakout indeed occur, but I’ve also outlined the structural bearish issues I see underlying the market.
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