John Mauldin
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Articles by John Mauldin
AI: Where Will the Money Come From?
AI: Where Will the Money Come From? Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get Last Chance to Watch the Free Longevity Symposium Cleveland, DC, Tulsa and Las Vegas “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.” - Commonly attributed to Sen. Everett Dirksen, although the saying was often used before. The quote above now seems quaint. I’m sure that many of us can remember when a billion dollars was an unfathomable amount of money. And in one sense, it still is.
AI: Where Will The Money Come From?
“A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.” - Commonly attributed to Sen. Everett Dirksen, although the saying was often used before. The quote above now seems quaint. I’m sure that many of us can remember when a billion dollars was an unfathomable amount of money. And in one sense, it still is. It’s hard for the human mind to get around the concept of the billion. A trillion dollars?
When Will AI Meet Cash Flow Reality?
Where’s the AI Cash Flow? AI in the Future Free Longevity Symposium: Stem Cells, Peptides and More Cleveland, Washington, DC and Tulsa For the last two years, I have been writing about the promise of Artificial Intelligence, noting the extraordinary, unbelievable, galactic-sized capital investments needed to move this new technology forward. And while I am a believer in the impact of AI, I have been steadfast in maintaining that not every hyper-scaler is going to be successful and profitable.
AI: Where Will the Money Come From?
AI: Where Will the Money Come From? Price Is What You Pay, Value Is What You Get Last Chance to Watch the Free Longevity Symposium Cleveland, DC, Tulsa and Las Vegas “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.” - Commonly attributed to Sen. Everett Dirksen, although the saying was often used before. The quote above now seems quaint. I’m sure that many of us can remember when a billion dollars was an unfathomable amount of money. And in one sense, it still is.
When Will AI Meet Cash Flow Reality?
For the last two years, I have been writing about the promise of Artificial Intelligence, noting the extraordinary, unbelievable, galactic-sized capital investments needed to move this new technology forward. And while I am a believer in the impact of AI, I have been steadfast in maintaining that not every hyper-scaler is going to be successful and profitable. We just don’t know which ones yet.
The Biggest Problems We Face Today
When Will We Have Humanoid Robots? The Biggest Problems We Face Today Interest Rates Spike Everywhere Free Health and Longevity Symposium Cleveland, Washington, DC And Your Letters We are buried beneath the weight of information, which is being confused with knowledge; quantity is being confused with abundance and wealth with happiness. - Tom Waits Interview "All Songs Considered", NPR, May 20, 2008. From my earliest memories, I’ve always been an information junkie.
When Will AI Meet Cash Flow Reality?
Where’s the AI Cash Flow? AI in the Future Free Longevity Symposium: Stem Cells, Peptides and More Cleveland, Washington, DC and Tulsa For the last two years, I have been writing about the promise of Artificial Intelligence, noting the extraordinary, unbelievable, galactic-sized capital investments needed to move this new technology forward. And while I am a believer in the impact of AI, I have been steadfast in maintaining that not every hyper-scaler is going to be successful and profitable.
The Biggest Problems We Face Today
We are buried beneath the weight of information, which is being confused with knowledge; quantity is being confused with abundance and wealth with happiness. - Tom Waits Interview "All Songs Considered", NPR, May 20, 2008. From my earliest memories, I’ve always been an information junkie. In my early years, I just read and absorbed everything I could. The library was my comfort zone.
The Biggest Problems We Face Today
When Will We Have Humanoid Robots? The Biggest Problems We Face Today Interest Rates Spike Everywhere Free Health and Longevity Symposium Cleveland, Washington, DC And Your Letters We are buried beneath the weight of information, which is being confused with knowledge; quantity is being confused with abundance and wealth with happiness. - Tom Waits Interview "All Songs Considered", NPR, May 20, 2008. From my earliest memories, I’ve always been an information junkie.
Economic Desiderata
And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore, be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be. And whatever your labors and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace in your soul. With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy. - by Max Ehrmann ©1927 There is a wonderful poem called Desiderata, that I’m sure we have all read many times, by Max Ehrmann.
Reversing Financial Repression
Why Are Interest Rates Rising? Which Way Inflation? What’s Driving Corporate Yields? Reversing Financial Repression The Problem with Diesel Cleveland, Washington DC, Tulsa, and Indianapolis As you might imagine, I literally get scores of emails loaded with information every day. On Mondays, it can approach 100. As a self-confessed information junkie (is there a 12-step program for us?), my inbox is a rich trove of data and intelligence. 15 years ago, a big day was 20 or so emails. I could cope.
Economic Desiderata
Is 29,000 Jobs Enough? What Will the Fed Do? The State of the Economy It’s Not Just Data Centers Powering the Growth The Changing Nature of Warfare Free Health and Longevity Symposium Cleveland, Washington DC, Birthdays and Hearing Aids And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore, be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be. And whatever your labors and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace in your soul.
Reversing Financial Repression
As you might imagine, I literally get scores of emails loaded with information every day. On Mondays, it can approach 100. As a self-confessed information junkie (is there a 12-step program for us?), my inbox is a rich trove of data and intelligence. 15 years ago, a big day was 20 or so emails. I could cope. Now, I am time pressed to absorb even half of what’s on my plate.
Fed Policy: As Good As It Gets
Chairman Warsh Stands Tall Financial Conditions Are Easy The Land of the Setting Yen Cleveland, Washington DC and Dragon Errors The FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points. So, what did we learn? As it turns out a great deal and it’s very important. Couple that with what is happening in Japan and long rates in general around the world, not to mention the geopolitical complications and energy, and there is a great deal to talk about.
Reversing Financial Repression
Why Are Interest Rates Rising? Which Way Inflation? What’s Driving Corporate Yields? Reversing Financial Repression The Problem with Diesel Cleveland, Washington DC, Tulsa, and Indianapolis As you might imagine, I literally get scores of emails loaded with information every day. On Mondays, it can approach 100. As a self-confessed information junkie (is there a 12-step program for us?), my inbox is a rich trove of data and intelligence. 15 years ago, a big day was 20 or so emails. I could cope.
Fed Policy: As Good As It Gets
The FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points. So, what did we learn? As it turns out a great deal and it’s very important. Couple that with what is happening in Japan and long rates in general around the world, not to mention the geopolitical complications and energy, and there is a great deal to talk about. I have long been critical, for decades, of the fact that 12 people sit around a table and set the price for arguably the most important commodity in the world: US short-term interest rates.
Inflation Doesn’t Cooperate
Inflation Doesn’t Cooperate I Am the House Where Do Republicans Go From Here? Cleveland, DC and More There is so much going on, it is hard to know where to begin. CPI just came out, the Republican administration put on offer some very nonconservative spending proposals, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent makes some rather (how to say this?) problematic statements. The FOMC meets next week. The data is all over the place.
Inflation Doesn’t Cooperate
There is so much going on, it is hard to know where to begin. CPI just came out, the Republican administration put on offer some very nonconservative spending proposals, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent makes some rather (how to say this?) problematic statements. The FOMC meets next week. The data is all over the place. I had a long and epic dinner in New York with David Bahnsen, Rene Aninao, and Brian Syztel which has my mind buzzing with ideas and new concepts.
Revisiting Muddle Through
A Solid Labor Report* Beige Book Blahs The Bullish Argument Trade Deficits and GDP A Few Thoughts on Interest Rates New York, DC, The Cleveland Clinic and More It’s Labor Day weekend, and my goal with this letter will be to not interrupt your long weekend too much. But there are some things that are happening that are important. My basic thesis for quite some time has been that we are in a Muddle Through Economy, which I’ve always meant that to me the GDP will grow slightly south of 2% over time.
Inflation Doesn’t Cooperate
Inflation Doesn’t Cooperate I Am the House Where Do Republicans Go From Here? Cleveland, DC and More There is so much going on, it is hard to know where to begin. CPI just came out, the Republican administration put on offer some very nonconservative spending proposals, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent makes some rather (how to say this?) problematic statements. The FOMC meets next week. The data is all over the place.
In Your Backyard: Jobs, Growth, and the Race We're Actually In
What People Believe What the Data Actually Shows The Jobs Data Centers Actually Create The Bigger Picture: Growth, and the Race We're Actually In In Summary: Austin, New York, DC, and Cleveland Last week we looked at the water and the wires. This week we take on the objection that scares people most: that AI, and the data centers that run it, are coming for their jobs.
Revisiting Muddle Through
A Solid Labor Report* Beige Book Blahs The Bullish Argument Trade Deficits and GDP A Few Thoughts on Interest Rates New York, DC, The Cleveland Clinic and More It’s Labor Day weekend, and my goal with this letter will be to not interrupt your long weekend too much. But there are some things that are happening that are important. My basic thesis for quite some time has been that we are in a Muddle Through Economy, which I’ve always meant that to me the GDP will grow slightly south of 2% over time.
AI In Your Backyard: The Water and the Wires
The Water Math Doesn't Support the Panic The Grid Problem Is Real — But It Isn't What You've Been Told But Will It Raise My Electric Bill? The AI Bottom Line Geopolitics At the Speed of Light Austin, New York, Washington DC and More Artificial intelligence is the topic of the day. It seems everyone has an opinion but not much actual factual knowledge. I’ve been dragging emails and research into my AI folder for a very long time.
In Your Backyard: Jobs, Growth, and the Race We're Actually In
What People Believe What the Data Actually Shows The Jobs Data Centers Actually Create The Bigger Picture: Growth, and the Race We're Actually In In Summary: Austin, New York, DC, and Cleveland Last week we looked at the water and the wires. This week we take on the objection that scares people most: that AI, and the data centers that run it, are coming for their jobs.
Caught in a Debt Trap
We’re caught in a trap I can’t walk out Because I love you too much, baby Why can’t you see What you’re doing to me When you don’t believe a word I say? -Suspicious Minds, Elvis Presley, 1969 Elvis Presley’s rendition of Suspicious Minds topped the record charts in 1969. The lyrics portray a romance that couldn’t work, but was also impossible to escape. That’s also a good way to describe our relationship with government debt. We know it can’t last, but we can’t walk out.
AI In Your Backyard: The Water and the Wires
The Water Math Doesn't Support the Panic The Grid Problem Is Real — But It Isn't What You've Been Told But Will It Raise My Electric Bill? The AI Bottom Line Geopolitics At the Speed of Light Austin, New York, Washington DC and More Artificial intelligence is the topic of the day. It seems everyone has an opinion but not much actual factual knowledge. I’ve been dragging emails and research into my AI folder for a very long time.
Caught in a Debt Trap
Diverted Capital Fiscal Futility Jaws of the Trap Anomalies in Paradise Cleveland, NYC, Washington DC, and Austin We're caught in a trap I can't walk out Because I love you too much, baby Why can't you seeWhat you're doing to me When you don't believe a word I say? -Suspicious Minds, Elvis Presley, 1969 Elvis Presley’s rendition of Suspicious Minds topped the record charts in 1969. The lyrics portray a romance that couldn’t work, but was also impossible to escape.
What’s in Your Portfolio Wallet?
I’ve been thinking a lot about my own portfolio construction for the past five years. It was admittedly complex. It was a combination of various alternative funds and private placements, with a few stocks thrown in. Not something that I think anybody should try to duplicate. I was, and still am, concerned about the potential for a serious generational crisis later this decade, one that could have a profound impact on all markets.
Caught in a Debt Trap
Diverted Capital Fiscal Futility Jaws of the Trap Anomalies in Paradise Cleveland, NYC, Washington DC, and Austin We're caught in a trap I can't walk out Because I love you too much, baby Why can't you see What you're doing to me When you don't believe a word I say? -Suspicious Minds, Elvis Presley, 1969 Elvis Presley’s rendition of Suspicious Minds topped the record charts in 1969. The lyrics portray a romance that couldn’t work, but was also impossible to escape.
What’s in Your Portfolio Wallet?
Profit from the Profit Creating Your Philosophical Investment Strategy Philly, NYC, Cleveland, Washington DC, Austin and Secret Missions I’ve been thinking a lot about my own portfolio construction for the past five years. It was admittedly complex. It was a combination of various alternative funds and private placements, with a few stocks thrown in. Not something that I think anybody should try to duplicate.
The Fed Conundrum: Who’s Got the Votes?
Who’s Got the Votes? WWWD? Secret Missions, Philadelphia and NYC This week’s vote from the Federal Reserve FOMC committee is going to have implications for quite some time. I think most of the pundits who are writing about this have their analysis wrong. This was not just a vote to not raise rates. I think there was a lot more going on behind the scenes. But first, today marks the beginning of the 27th year of my writing Thoughts from the Frontline.
What’s in Your Portfolio Wallet?
Profit from the Profit Creating Your Philosophical Investment Strategy Philly, NYC, Cleveland, Washington DC, Austin and Secret Missions I’ve been thinking a lot about my own portfolio construction for the past five years. It was admittedly complex. It was a combination of various alternative funds and private placements, with a few stocks thrown in. Not something that I think anybody should try to duplicate.
Long Term Rate Headache
Superbubble Popping? Condominium Prices Fall Shifting Center “A Considerable Lag” Philadelphia and Washington, DC I talk about the Federal Reserve often in these letters, and for good reasons. Fed policy has enormous influence on the economy. Yet the Fed has far more power in some areas than others. It has deep, almost dictatorial control over short-term interest rates and overnight bank liquidity and much less power over long-term yields.
Long Term Rate Headache
I talk about the Federal Reserve often in these letters, and for good reasons. Fed policy has enormous influence on the economy. Yet the Fed has far more power in some areas than others. It has deep, almost dictatorial control over short-term interest rates and overnight bank liquidity and much less power over long-term yields. Yes, the Fed has some power over mortgages and Treasury bonds, but it’s not as simple as taking a vote.
Long Term Rate Headache
Superbubble Popping? Condominium Prices Fall Shifting Center “A Considerable Lag” Philadelphia and Washington, DC I talk about the Federal Reserve often in these letters, and for good reasons. Fed policy has enormous influence on the economy. Yet the Fed has far more power in some areas than others. It has deep, almost dictatorial control over short-term interest rates and overnight bank liquidity and much less power over long-term yields.
Inflation Conundrums
Last week I noted the problems of sitting down with a blank screen and trying to figure out what to write. This week I have the opposite problem: I have well over 20 important research notes from various authorities about inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and interest rates. The challenge will be to summarize the most important points.
Economic Anomalies
People As Policy Market Response to the Oil Shock Core Inflation Expectations Are Not Well Anchored Summer and Writing Schedules Next month I will begin my 27th year of writing this letter. The way I write, how I come up with topics, when I write have all changed over time. But one thing is consistent: when I sit down to write there is a blank screen. Some weeks topics are obvious. Some weeks I scramble as the fear of a blank screen forces me to just start writing.
Economic Anomalies
Next month I will begin my 27th year of writing this letter. The way I write, how I come up with topics, when I write have all changed over time. But one thing is consistent: when I sit down to write there is a blank screen. Some weeks topics are obvious. Some weeks I scramble as the fear of a blank screen forces me to just start writing. On a few occasions those are my better pieces. Often, well, let’s just say that those letters will make the top of the list.
Inflation Conundrums, Gold and Grandkids
Last week I noted the problems of sitting down with a blank screen and trying to figure out what to write. This week I have the opposite problem: I have well over 20 important research notes from various authorities about inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and interest rates. The challenge will be to summarize the most important points.
Inflation Conundrums
CPI Head Fake? Pipeline Inflation The End of Globalization’s Disinflationary Era Labor Market Inflation Is AI Inflationary or Deflationary? Kevin Warsh on Inflation Gold and Grandkids The Dog Days of Summer Last week I noted the problems of sitting down with a blank screen and trying to figure out what to write. This week I have the opposite problem: I have well over 20 important research notes from various authorities about inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and interest rates.
The Great American Sleepover
This letter is going to be a little different, and much shorter. But on July 4 I hope it makes you feel good! Regular readers know I spend most of my writing time worrying — in a constructive, analytical way, I hope — about what I think is a coming national and economic crisis, about debt trajectories, monetary policy missteps, and the various macro landmines that litter the path ahead. As well as arguing that we are still in a Muddle Through world and that things aren’t really that bad.
The Great American Sleepover
The Reverse Tourist Gaze Texas Delivers, As Usual Costco, Barbeque and Ranch Dressing This Is Why America Will Come Together After the Next Crisis July 4, Puerto Rico and How to Feel Good about America This letter is going to be a little different, and much shorter.
Economic Anomalies
People As Policy Market Response to the Oil Shock Core Inflation Expectations Are Not Well Anchored Summer and Writing Schedules Next month I will begin my 27th year of writing this letter. The way I write, how I come up with topics, when I write have all changed over time. But one thing is consistent: when I sit down to write there is a blank screen. Some weeks topics are obvious. Some weeks I scramble as the fear of a blank screen forces me to just start writing.
Inflation Sinks Deeper
Compound Inflation The Grocery Store Never Lies "More Expensive in Every Way" Can AI Help? Birthdays and Anniversaries When we talk about inflation, the conversation usually centers on periods (like now) when inflation is especially high. Those are certainly problematic. But we can overlook a possibly bigger problem: other than a few short breaks, you and I have never seen a time when inflation wasn’t rising. Inflation isn’t some problem that pops up occasionally.
The Great American Sleepover
The Reverse Tourist Gaze Texas Delivers, As Usual Costco, Barbeque and Ranch Dressing This Is Why America Will Come Together After the Next Crisis July 4, Puerto Rico and How to Feel Good about America This letter is going to be a little different, and much shorter.
Social Insecurity, Surprise Edition
The Public Downside to You Living Longer How to Fix Social Security AI Playbook Parkinson’s, Longevity and More The Social Security Administration recently gave us their annual report with a few blockbuster footnotes. We all know that Social Security as it is currently constructed will run out of money in the early 2030s. Social Security's cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010. Since then, payments have been made out of the so-called trust fund.
Social Insecurity, Surprise Edition
The Social Security Administration recently gave us their annual report with a few blockbuster footnotes. We all know that Social Security as it is currently constructed will run out of money in the early 2030s. Social Security’s cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010. Since then, payments have been made out of the so-called trust fund. Except the trust fund does not hold cash.
Inflation Sinks Deeper
Compound Inflation The Grocery Store Never Lies "More Expensive in Every Way" Can AI Help? Birthdays and Anniversaries When we talk about inflation, the conversation usually centers on periods (like now) when inflation is especially high. Those are certainly problematic. But we can overlook a possibly bigger problem: other than a few short breaks, you and I have never seen a time when inflation wasn’t rising. Inflation isn’t some problem that pops up occasionally.
The G-Shaped Economy
The G-Shaped Economy SpaceX Final Panel Sidebar: The Global Crossing Lesson Writing Books, Thinking about Crisis, and Surprisingly No Travel This week is the final recap of the 2026 Strategic Investment Conference. I have always done summaries of the SIC afterwards, but I don’t think I’ve ever taken four weeks, let alone five weeks to cover it. And I feel we have only scratched the surface. There was just a lot of good content this year. And so much has happened since early May.
Social Insecurity, Surprise Edition
The Public Downside to You Living Longer How to Fix Social Security AI Playbook Parkinson’s, Longevity and More The Social Security Administration recently gave us their annual report with a few blockbuster footnotes. We all know that Social Security as it is currently constructed will run out of money in the early 2030s. Social Security's cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010. Since then, payments have been made out of the so-called trust fund.
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