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Articles by John Methven
Recent equatorward shift of the summer North Atlantic jet dominated by internal climate variability
Abstract INTRODUCTION RESULTS DISCUSSION MATERIALS AND METHODS Acknowledgments Supplementary Materials REFERENCES Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract The North Atlantic jet (NAJ), a fast-flowing westerly wind in the upper troposphere, influences the movement of extreme weather systems and affects the safety of commercial flights.
The relationship between equatorial wave interaction and heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia
1 INTRODUCTION Southeast (SE) Asia is greatly affected by heavy rainfall events, often resulting in flooding and landslides. In the Tropics, rainfall is incredibly challenging to predict, even using high-resolution models (e.g., Birch et al., 2016; Ferrett et al., 2021; Love et al., 2011), and therefore the lead time of skilful high-impact weather forecasts can be relatively short.
Influence of potential vorticity generated by diabatic cooling over the Tibetan Plateau on the surface air temperature of eastern China during boreal winter
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Skill and consistency of ECMWF forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis
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The THINICE Field Campaign: Interactions between Arctic Cyclones, Tropopause Polar Vortices, Clouds, and Sea Ice in Summer
Keywords: Atmosphere; Arctic; Sea ice; Clouds; Jets; Aircraft observations 1. Introduction The rapidly changing Arctic climate is one of the most alarming signals of global warming as it is having stark impacts on vulnerable ecological systems and indigenous people, livelihoods and activities through sea ice reduction, permafrost thaw, and ice-sheet melting (Post et al. 2013; Overland et al. 2014; Ford et al. 2021).
The structure of Borneo vortices and their relationship with cold surges, the Madden-Julian oscillation and equatorial waves
1 INTRODUCTION The heaviest rainfall over Borneo, Sumatra and Malaysia occurs during Boreal winter (December to February [DJF]), although rainfall along coastlines in this region exhibits a seasonal migration from the north (15°–20° N) in October to south of the equator in December to February (Chen et al., 2015).
The THINICE field campaign: Interactions between Arctic cyclones, tropopause polar vortices, clouds and sea ice in summer
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A dynamical interpretation of the intensification of the winter North Atlantic jet stream in reanalysis
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The role of storm‐track dynamics in the intraseasonal variability of the winter ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic
1 INTRODUCTION The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is characterised by coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the Tropical Pacific but has remote influences across the globe, through atmospheric teleconnections (e.g., Horel & Wallace, 1981; Trenberth et al., 1998; Wallace & Gutzler, 1981).
Jumpiness in ensemble forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks
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A new framework for using weather‐sensitive surplus power reserves in critical infrastructure
1 INTRODUCTION Critical infrastructures are facilities necessary for a country to function or protect against danger to the public; for example, hospitals, transport services and communications infrastructure (CPNI, 2021).
Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Forecasts of the Risk of Rainfall in Southeast Asia Dependent on Equatorial Waves
Keywords: Tropics; Kelvin waves; Rossby waves; Forecast verification/skill; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting 1. Introduction High-impact weather across Southeast Asia is primarily related to heavy precipitation, particularly in areas vulnerable to flooding or landslides, and where the exposure of the population is great. Precipitation in Southeast Asia is a challenging field to forecast.
Introduction to the QJ@150 Anniversary Collection
2023 is a momentous year for the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (QJ), celebrating its 150th anniversary. The QJ was initiated in 1873 at a time when meteorological science was growing rapidly in scope and importance and is one of the first atmospheric science journals to be established. The Meteorological Society had not yet been recognised with the use of "Royal" in its title (that was bestowed by Queen Victoria in 1883).
Variability and trends in England and Wales precipitation
ABSTRACT The England and Wales precipitation (EWP) dataset is a homogeneous time series of daily accumulations from 1931 to 2014, composed from rain gauge observations spanning the region. The daily regional‐average precipitation statistics are shown to be well described by a Weibull distribution, which is used to define extremes in terms of percentiles.
Blocking and its Response to Climate Change - Current Climate Change Reports
Abstract Purpose of Review Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models.
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