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John S Dagpunar

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Articles by John S Dagpunar

Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables

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By John S Dagpunar, Chenchen Wu
| ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Skip to main page content Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation Save citation to file Format: Add to My Bibliography Your saved search Name of saved search: Search terms: Frequency: Which day? Which day? Report format: Send at most: Send even when there aren't any new results Optional text in email: Create a file for external citation management software doi: 10.1098/rsos.221277.
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The scale and dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics across Europe

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By Christopher Dye, John S Dagpunar, Brian Williams, Ragonnet-Cronin M
| royalsocietypublishing.org
The total number of COVID-19 deaths reported by European countries up to 31 July 2020 varied more than 100-fold, from approximately 100 in Croatia to more than 45 000 in the UK. In terms of the dynamics of coronavirus transmission, there are broadly three possible reasons why a country might suffer relatively few deaths.
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Sensitivity of UK Covid-19 deaths to the timing of suppression measures and their relaxation

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By John S Dagpunar
| medRxiv
Abstract In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds, to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500 day period. This is achieved via a SEIR model. Using an expected latent period of 4.5 days and infectious period of 3.8 days, R_0 was first estimated as 3.18 using observed death rates under unmitigated spread and then under the effects of the total lockdown (R_0=0.60) of 23 March.
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