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Articles by John Tilemann
Funding crisis leaves UN nuclear watchdog begging for resources
The International Atomic Energy Agency faces a serious funding crisis as major contributors delay payments, putting nuclear safeguards, safety and security work at risk and exposing deeper problems with how the agency is financed. The 180-plus members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are meeting this month in Vienna amidst an ongoing financial crisis.
Funding crisis leaves UN nuclear watchdog begging for resources
The International Atomic Energy Agency faces a serious funding crisis as major contributors delay payments, putting nuclear safeguards, safety and security work at risk and exposing deeper problems with how the agency is financed. The 180-plus members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are meeting this month in Vienna amidst an ongoing financial crisis.
Funding crisis leaves UN nuclear watchdog begging for resources
John Tilemann and John Carlson The 180-plus members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are meeting this month in Vienna amidst an ongoing financial crisis. In June, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported that if significant payments were not received soon, the agency would not be able to meet its legal obligations. The cause? The failure of the wealthiest members to pay their assessed dues on time.
Nuclear testing threatens global stability
Gareth Evans, Robert Hill, and Larissa Waters are among the Australian signatories of a statement calling on Trump to clarify that the US will not resume nuclear explosive testing. Eighty eminent and expert members of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament ( APLN) have denounced President Trump’s threatened return to nuclear testing.
Nuclear arms control and the Asia-Pacific
Since the end of the Cold War, the world has become complacent about the danger of nuclear war. While the taboo against the use of nuclear weapons has held so far, the nuclear-armed countries have ignored their moral and legal obligations to pursue nuclear disarmament. They are also ignoring the importance of arms control for their own security. Most of the agreements between the US and the Soviet Union/Russia limiting nuclear weapons are defunct or expiring.
AUKUS and nuclear propulsion proliferation in the Asia-Pacific
President Trump recently announced support for South Korea’s plans to build nuclear-powered submarines. This is a triumph for Korea’s new President Lee Jae Myung, generally regarded as less close to Washington and more interested in dialogue with China than his predecessor. The deal is reported to have been part of a complex package of economic and security outcomes, including possibly a commitment to construct submarines in the US at a Korean owned shipyard.
Nuclear weapons: Kill this love
By John Tilemann We must kill this love Yeah, it's sad but true Gotta kill this love Before it kills you, too … -- BLACKPINK, "Kill this love" It seems that the Asia-Pacific loves all things nuclear. Nuclear power is expanding in the region, with China, South Korea, India, and Pakistan leading the way, while Japan reopens reactors shut down after Fukushima. Bangladesh will join the nuclear energy club this year, and Indonesia and Australia are expressing renewed interest.
Nuclear weapons: Kill this love - John Tilemann
We must kill this love Yeah, it's sad but true Gotta kill this love Before it kills you, too … -- BLACKPINK, "Kill this love" John Tilemann It seems that the Asia-Pacific loves all things nuclear. Nuclear power is expanding in the region, with China, South Korea, India, and Pakistan leading the way, while Japan reopens reactors shut down after Fukushima. Bangladesh will join the nuclear energy club this year, and Indonesia and Australia are expressing renewed interest.
Nuclear weapons: Kill this love
By John Tilemann We must kill this love Yeah, it's sad but true Gotta kill this love Before it kills you, too … Song by BLACKPINK It seems that the Asia-Pacific loves all things nuclear. Nuclear power is expanding in the region, with China, South Korea, India, and Pakistan leading the way, while Japan reopens reactors shut down after Fukushima. Bangladesh will join the nuclear energy club this year, and Indonesia and Australia are expressing renewed interest.
A farewell to arms? - Openforum
In the shadow of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East it is challenging to imagine a farewell to wars. Hans Blix’s latest book surveys modern international relations, and with the critical mind of a lawyer and diplomatic practitioner, demonstrates how, over the last two centuries, the international system has accepted growing constraints on interstate use of force.
Australian leadership in Indo‑Pacific nuclear diplomacy
Australia should again take a leadership role in nuclear diplomacy, working with regional neighbours, to reduce nuclear threats in the Indo-Pacific through confidence building and preventive diplomacy measures.
Taming Asia's nuclear jungle: lessons from Cold War?
By John Tilemann Sixty years ago, the Cuban missile crisis jolted Washington and Moscow into recognizing the urgent need to manage their nuclear relations and reduce the global existential threat posed by their spiraling nuclear arsenals. Earlier efforts to put the nuclear genie back into the bottle had failed.
Book Review: Tomorrow There Will be Apricots: An Australian Diplomat in the Arab World - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Dr Bob Bowker is a former Australian diplomat, intelligence analyst, and academic who has followed affairs in the Middle East since the 1970s. His book offers insights into the complexities of Middle East politics and the challenges facing a practitioner in shaping Australia’s foreign policies in this sensitive part of the world.
Nuclear norms under attack
By John Tilemann Sixty years after the Cuban missile crisis brought the world to the brink of nuclear holocaust, the international community is still struggling to contain the malign manifestations of the atom while exploiting its benign uses in nuclear power generation and a multitude of other peaceful uses, most notably in nuclear medicine. This year has seen a ramping up of nuclear risks.
Ukraine and the Global Nuclear Order - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Like so many other areas of international and regional multilateral endeavour, the frameworks for managing global nuclear affairs have serious gaps. Russia’s intervention in Ukraine has again demonstrated the weaknesses but also some of the strengths of this global nuclear order. Some challenges for managing nuclear affairs are long standing, others just emerging, and emerging mechanisms suffer from a range of shortcomings in implementation.
The Mistakes That Brought Down Flight 752 - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Several key shortcomings in Iran’s defence infrastructure and capability compounded the night Ukrainian Airlines flight 752 was shot down. While uncertainty since that night has slightly abated, little seems to have changed. January of 2020 proved to be rough. As everyone was busy celebrating the new year, Iranians were rattled by the news that General Qasem Soleimani had been killed in Iraq by a US airstrike.
How to Really Talk About Defending Australia - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Hugh White’s new book, How to Defend Australia, recommends Australia double defence spending and consider nuclear weapons. Both are highly problematic, as is Australia’s insular and opaque military and security decision-making. Hugh White’s How to Defend Australia made a big media splash last week, largely because it contains some controversial suggestions.
Australia in the World Podcast Ep. 22: Hong Kong protests; Shangri-La Dialogue; US-Iran tensions - Australian Institute of International Affairs
In this episode, Allan and Darren discuss the enormous protests in Hong Kong against a proposed extradition law, the relevance of the Shangri-La dialogue to watchers of Australian foreign policy and whether the United States needs an “off-ramp” in the crisis with Iran. Allan and Darren commence this episode by discussing the enormous protests in Hong Kong against a proposed extradition law.
Is it Time to Rethink the US-Turkey Strategic Relationship? - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system is seriously challenging its relationship with the United States and its place in NATO. Given the changing nature of Turkey’s political regime and the United States priorities in the Middle East perhaps it’s time for a rethink of the US-Turkey alliance. The US-Turkey relationship has never been an easy alliance.
Japan’s Dilemma in the Persian Gulf - Australian Institute of International Affairs
The 2015 “reinterpretation” of Japan’s Constitution presents Abe with a new dilemma should the United States request that Japan assist in an American armed conflict with Iran. In the wake of the recent attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf, there has been considerable discussion about Europe’s difficult position amidst the escalating tension between the United States and Iran. There has been far less discussion of Japan’s situation.
The Blame Game on Nuclear Testing Risks Wider Dangers - Australian Institute of International Affairs
The accusations about Russian nuclear weapon testing by senior US officials are a dangerous game to be playing and point to a worrying pattern in the Trump administration. If a senior US official’s recent statement that Russia is “probably not adhering“ to the rules of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is true, the world would be in serious trouble. The claim was made on 29 May by Lt Gen Robert Ashley, director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency.
Iran: Nuclear Deal under Maximum Pressure - Australian Institute of International Affairs Iran: Nuclear Deal under Maximum Pressure - AIIA
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — the deal curtailing Iran’s nuclear activities — has been under strain since the US unilaterally decided to withdraw in May last year. The International Atomic Energy Agency has continued to find that Iran is complying with its obligations. The other parties — China, France, Russia, UK, Germany, the EU, and most critically Iran — remain committed, but the promised benefits to Iran are greatly diminished, and the deal is now under severe threat.
Australia in the World Podcast: Episode 14 - AIIA
In episode 14 of Australia in the World, Allan and Darren talk nuclear weapons, the Trump-Kim summit, India-Pakistan tensions and the long-awaited free trade agreement between Australia and Indonesia. The impact of nuclear weapons is the major theme this week. Darren begins by asking Allan for his practitioner’s perspective on the question whether nukes are a stabilising force in international affairs.
Trump-Kim Summit II: Setting Realistic Expectations - AIIA
At the second summit between President Trump and Kim Jong Un, transformational goals such as the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula will remain out of reach. The United States should limit its expectations and aim for transactional objectives like codifying North Korea’s moratorium on nuclear and missile testing.
Justifying Iran's Missile Program - AIIA
Iran’s missile program has received worldwide condemnation. But for a cash-strapped state with outdated military hardware, developing an advanced missile capability is an effective and cost-efficient way to guarantee its security in a hostile region. If you have been following Iran in the news, you have probably heard much about its missile program. Alongside the coverage of its disputed nuclear ambitions, there is also much reporting on its ballistic and, more recently, cruise missile testing.
The Venezuelan Military Amid the Crisis - AIIA
The Venezuelan military is crucial to resolving the national crisis. Whatever the outcome in the country, the armed forces and the factions within them will play a decisive role. The Venezuelan crisis has come to a head with the challenge presented by opposition leader Juan Guaidó to the presidency of Nicolas Maduro. Three weeks in, the situation in Venezuela remains deadlocked. As a result, the Venezuelan military is likely to hold the key to its resolution.
The Nuclear Doomsday Clock: a "New Abnormal" - The Nuclear Doomsday Clock: a "New Abnormal" - AIIA
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has again highlighted that the nuclear order is under attack and nuclear risks are increasing: it depicts this changed strategic environment as the “New Abnormal”. As far as it goes the analysis is sound; but it is Atlantic-centric and the recommendations for action are short on imagination and detail.
Australia Needs to Support the Ban on Nuclear Weapons - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Australia’s Labor Party has given “in principle” support to the ban on nuclear weapons, but it needs to go further. The Australian Labor Party’s conference in Adelaide has given “in-principle” support for a United Nations treaty which outlaws nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, some in the party were sceptical, and want a number of conditions met before a future Labor government signs it.
Shaping Australia’s Nuclear Policies - AIIA
At its forthcoming National Conference, the Australian Labor Party is likely to decide against Australia’s signature of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Therefore, whilst a potential change of government may see a reinvigoration of Australia’s nuclear diplomacy, major changes to Australia’s nuclear policy settings are unlikely.
Australia Reviews its Policy on the Iran Nuclear Deal - AIIA - Australian Institute of International Affairs
Australia’s national interests dictate that it should continue to support the nuclear deal with Iran. However, the government’s review is an opportunity to canvass complementary measures to address security and human rights in the Middle East.
The faces behind the stone
Columns of soldiers tramp the mud-smeared Ypres Road. The stamp of their sodden boots upon the cobblestones sounds a drumbeat. They tramp past the gaunt ruins of the medieval Cloth Hall and through the humps of broken masonry that once formed the Menin Gate. The drumbeat fall of their boots continues uninterrupted — every hour, every day and every night for four long years. A mile beyond the Menin Gate is Hellfire Corner, and a mile further is the abyss.
Gustav Klimt and the end of the Habsburg Empire
The Austro-Hungarian Empire’s role in the first world war was already over by 11 November 1918. During the previous month its forces on the last front, in Italy, had collapsed as units deserted to protect their national constituencies in Hungary and the soon-to-be-created Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. The armistice of Villa Giusti was signed on 3 November; the “winner” was none of the original combatants but rather the collection of states that replaced the empire as it fell apart.
Shadow Ministers Signal Weasel Move on Nuclear Ban Treaty - AIIA
Labor’s apparent move away from support for the nuclear ban treaty reveals a fundamental misunderstanding in Australian foreign policy circles, and a desperate lack of quality analysis from academics and think-tanks. Neglected in academic and foreign policy circles in Australia since it opened for signature a year ago, the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW or nuclear ban treaty) has in the past few days attracted a flurry of interest.
North Korea: Inspectors at the Door? - AIIA
Despite uncertainties about how, when and under what conditions, the International Atomic Energy Agency is preparing to return to North Korea.
The Disarmament Challenge in a Time of Disruption - AIIA
World leaders have a solemn duty to prevent a nuclear catastrophe from re-occurring. How do we make progress and what role can Australia play? This is an extract of Penny Wong’s speech at the 2018 AIIA National Conference on 15 October. For the full speech, click here. On 25 May 1946, the New York Times published the text of a telegram written by Albert Einstein on behalf of the Emergency Committee of Atomic Scientists and the Federation of American Scientists.
The Iran Nuclear Deal: Can the Centre Hold? - AIIA
With US sanctions being reimposed on Iran, the world faces a real prospect of nuclear anarchy returning to the Middle East. On 26 September, a special high-level meeting of the United Nations Security Council dedicated to eliminating proliferation of weapons of mass destruction was chaired by the United States as Council President.
Trump’s nuclear brinkmanship enters a new phase
Just weeks before his meeting with Kim Jong-un, Donald Trump has pulled the United States out of the Iran nuclear agreement. What is likely to happens next? The United States is juggling two hugely important nuclear proliferation crises simultaneously. While Donald Trump angles for a deal with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un, he has fulfilled a campaign promise to “terminate” an agreement for containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Iran on the Ground - AIIA
Iran continues to be stereotyped in Western media as a rogue state full of corrupt mullahs, an abuser of human rights, an exporter of Islamic terrorism to Syria, Iraq, the Gaza Strip and Yemen, and an extremist theocracy with territorial and nuclear ambitions on a collision course with Saudi Arabia, Israel and their backer, the United States.
The Deep Roots of Iran's New Year Protests - AIIA
The turn of the new year in Iran has seen an outbreak of protests which have taken most observers by surprise. 40 years after the Islamic revolution, are cracks beginning to appear? On 28 December 2017, an otherwise normal day, a protest started against the Irani regime in Mashhad, one of the biggest cities in the country. Very soon it had spread to more than 80 small and large cities throughout the country.
Yemen’s agony: Saudi Guilt, Western Shame - AIIA
The war in Yemen raged through its third year in 2017. But with the world’s eyes turned elsewhere, the strings were being pulled by Riyadh, Tehran, and even by Washington. The conflict provoked by the Saudi-UAE assault on Yemen (Operation Decisive Storm) began in March, 2015, and an end is not in sight. The impact on the Yemeni population has been devastating. None of the combatants, especially the Saudi-led aggressors and their Western patrons, have shown any willingness to end this senseless war.
The Mysterious Case of the Missing Prime Minister - AIIA
Lebanese Prime Minster Saad Hariri’s strange resignation left the country puzzling over the reach of Saudi Arabia. Now that he has returned to Lebanon there are still more questions than answers. Australia is one country that has some experience of missing a prime minister. In Lebanon three weeks ago, the prime minister was not so much swept away by the sea, but by the Saudis.
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