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Articles by Jon Alterman
What a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Means for Energy and Beyond
Pause, Not Peace: The U.S.-Iran Ceasefire on Borrowed Time Raad Alkadiri, Senior Associate (Non-resident), Energy Security and Climate Change Program This is a deal President Donald Trump wanted to make, and one Iran was happy to take given the security and financial concessions on offer. But it is not a peace settlement. It is an extended ceasefire, and it remains hostage to the very dynamics that drew the United States and Iran into conflict in the first place.
Trump’s smart Iran exit
“When you find yourself in a hole, the first thing is to stop digging.” That’s what Trump did last week, after months of promising just how completely US would defeat Iran. Trump was right to end the war, and the terms on which he did so were not getting better. He decided to cut his losses and move on. Read full story on TOI+ Facebook Twitter Linkedin END OF ARTICLE
America needs the trust of its friends, not its adversaries
Former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman spent hundreds of hours negotiating with Iranian diplomats, and she came away with a surprising conclusion: “I don’t think negotiations are ever about trust,” she told me. She was right, but not completely. You don’t need to trust an adversary to cut a deal with one. What you need is the trust of your friends. And the U.S. government isn’t putting nearly the attention it needs into building that trust.
Where’s the war going?
For Israel, it isn’t over till Iran’s regime is savagely weakened. For Iran, it isn’t over till the world feels unbearable pain. For Trump, it isn’t clear when and/or how he can say it’s over. Biggest risk: in 5 years, Iran can be like Libya or North Korea or Pakistan Countries often go to war confident they know what’s coming. That certainty rarely survives the first battle. The fighting in Iran, today, is unusually complex. But, motivations driving it are relatively easy to trace.
Would Regime Change Solve the Iran Challenge? | State of Play
Shortly after launching Operation Epic Fury, President Trump told Iranians that it would soon be time to "take over your government" saying it would be "probably your only chance for generations." Yet, the United States has a poor record of achieving its ambitions for long-term political change through military operations in the Middle East.
Why Decapitation Will Not Solve the United States’ Iran Problem
When Iranians took to the streets to celebrate the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, it was tempting to think that the hardest part of the current confrontation with Iran was over. Iran has been a wicked policy problem for the United States, its Middle Eastern allies, and the international community for decades, and Khamenei was more than merely the face of the problem.
The United States Cannot Go It Alone in Venezuela
“Weak nations,” the late Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan wrote in 1990, “will hope that strong nations will be law-abiding.” Moynihan was no apologist for weak nations. An avowed Cold Warrior whose political career was grounded in his loud and unsuccessful opposition to a 1975 UN resolution that equated Zionism with racism, he entitled his memoir of his time as UN ambassador A Dangerous Place. Even so, Moynihan would have been deeply alarmed at U.S. actions in Venezuela last weekend.
Framing a U.S. Approach to the West Bank
Chairman Lawler, Ranking Member Sherman, distinguished Members of the Committee, I am honored to share my views with you on this important topic. CSIS does not take policy positions, so the views represented in this testimony are my own and not those of my employer. The area that many call the West Bank and many others call Judea and Samaria has been populated for 11 millennia, has hosted a long parade of civilizations, and is central to three of the world’s great religions.
The United Arab Emirates: From Footnote to Sophisticated Global Partner
This brief is part of a larger project on the Global South, led by the Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy. It includes an edited volume entitled Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future. You can find more about the project here. Introduction Vladimir Putin bounded down two dozen steps from his presidential plane on the morning of December 6, 2023. It must have felt good to be on the road again.
Executive Summary - Fulcrums of Order
This brief is part of a larger project on the Global South, led by the Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy. It includes an edited volume entitled Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future. You can find more about the project here. The United States has been the world’s dominant power for most of a century, and it will remain the world’s strongest power for many years to come.
Fulcrums of Order: Rising States and the Struggle for the Future
This edited volume is part of a larger project on the Global South, led by the Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy. You can find more about the project here. The accelerating rise of the so-called Global South is reshaping the geopolitical landscape and challenging long-standing assumptions about how power is expressed in the international system. A growing number of influential states are asserting that the post–World War II order no longer reflects their interests or realities.
Experts React: Starvation in Gaza
Editor’s Note: Additional expert perspectives were added on July 29, 2025. How Did Gaza Descend into Mass Starvation and What Is the Path Out? Mona Yacoubian, Director and Senior Adviser, Middle East Program Gaza’s accelerated descent into mass starvation dates to Israel’s decision to impose a full blockade on the territory on March 2. The move was intended to pressure Hamas to release additional hostages.
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