Jon Erdman
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@weatherchannel Sr. Meteorologist. MS @CSUAtmosSci; BS @UWMadison; Insightful. Interesting. Impactful. Weather. Also on Bluesky. Opinions mine, not my employer.
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Articles by Jon Erdman
Category 5 Hurricane Atlantic Basin History Original
Melissa To Hit Jamaica With Catastrophic Impacts Three Category 5 hurricanes have developed in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, something that hasn't happened in 20 years. Melissa joined Humberto and Erin in 2025: Hurricane Melissa became the latest storm to join the Category 5 club on Oct. 27 while it was south of Jamaica. That made Melissa the third Category 5 Atlantic hurricane of the 2025 hurricane season, following Erin (Aug. 16) and Humberto (Sept. 27).
The Latest In The Atlantic Tropics Original
Two tropical storms – Jerry and Karen – have come and gone in the last week, but we now have another area to watch for the next named storm of the season. (MORE: How Hurricane Season Usually Changes In October) A tropical wave may have a chance of development midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles through early week. It is expected to turn northward into the open Atlantic and will not be a threat to the Caribbean. By signing up you agree to the Terms & Privacy Policy. Unsubscribe at any time.
Odds Increasing For Tropical Development This Week, Plus Rainmaker Soaking Gulf Coast
21,232 people played the daily Crossword recently. Can you solve it faster than others? 21,232 people played the daily Crossword recently. Can you solve it faster than others?
Category 5 Hurricane Atlantic Basin History Original
Future Gabrielle? NHC Tracking Invest 91L Category 5 hurricanes occupy the most elite status in the Atlantic Basin. One hundred years of history has shown they have preferred locations and times of year, but there are also outliers, especially in recent years. Erin joined the list this year: This hurricane's intensity went up and down as it dotted across the Atlantic, but on August 16, 2025, it exploded into a Category 5 while located just north of the Virgin Islands.
2024 Was A Record-Warm Year, NOAA, NASA Find Original
By Jonathan Belles and Jon Erdman 2 hours ago The globe and the contiguous United States has had their warmest year on record. Seventeen states also had their warmest year on record. Temperatures surpassed the threshold set by the Paris agreement for the first time. The year 2024 was the Earth's warmest year on record, according to multiple just-released analyses.
Hurricane Rafael To Strike Cuba, Then Weaken In Gulf
By Chris Dolce, Jon Erdman and Sara Tonks less than an hour ago Rafael will make landfall in Cuba as a hurricane later today. Rafael is also expected to bring tropical storm conditions to the Florida Keys Wednesday. The hurricane will weaken in the Gulf of Mexico due to strong wind shear, dry air and cooler water.
Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms In Caribbean; Expected To Become Tropical Storm Rafael
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Likely To Become Rafael
By Chris Dolce, Jon Erdman and Sara Tonks less than an hour ago Tropical Depression Eighteen has developed in the Caribbean and is likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael sometime Monday. The system could become a hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea. Once the system enters the Gulf of Mexico, it should weaken due to strong wind shear, dry air and cooler water.
November Weather: 'Witch Storms' And More
November can feature Midwest "witch storms," first snows for some and severe weather. Hurricane season comes to a close. Florida's dry season begins as the wet season ramps up in the West. November can be a dynamic weather month since the handoff between fall and winter is fully underway, and that means there's often a mix of weather conditions in any given year. Here are a few things we watch for, beginning with a spooky-sounding nickname for a type of storm.
What Is Graupel? Explaining A Weather Phenomenon
By Jennifer Gray 21 hours ago Graupel resembles Dippin' Dots ice cream and is often confused with hail or sleet. It's actually ice pellets that are less than five millimeters in diameter. Graupel is often mistaken for sleet or small hail, because the appearance is quite similar. These tiny ice pellets originate from snowflakes. As the flakes fall, supercooled water droplets cling to them and freeze, forming small round or conical grains of ice.
Hurricane Helene's Impacts Far Outside The Cone
Hurricane Safety and Preparedness By Jennifer Gray 2 hours ago Areas outside Hurricane Helene's forecast cone need to prepare for widespread impacts. Flooding and wind damage will extend far away from the storm's forecast cone. Storm surge as high as 15 feet will be possible outside the cone. Hurricane Helene isn't just a strong storm, it's a big one - and its size and strength are only expected to grow. This means the wind, rain and damage will extend far outside the forecast cone.
Francine's Remnants May Continue To Bring Flood Threat To South
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Francine's Remnants Bring Flood, Isolated Tornado Threats To South
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Francine Tracking Inland Through South With Flooding Rain And Tornado Threats
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Tropical Depression Francine Tracking Inland Through South With Flooding Rain And Tornado Threats
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Tropical Storm Francine Tracking Inland Through South With Flooding Rain And Tornado Threats
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Tropical Storm Francine Moving Through Louisiana, Mississippi With Damaging Gusts, Heavy Rain And Storm Surge
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Francine Might Continue Stretch Of Tornadic Hurricanes So Far In 2024
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Francine Might Be Another Tornadic US Hurricane
By Chris Dolce and Jon Erdman less than an hour ago Francine might produce a few tornadoes near the Gulf Coast and in other parts of the South through late-week. Landfalling storms can produce just a few or dozens of twisters. Hurricanes Beryl and Debby were notable for their tornadoes earlier this summer. Francine could continue a stretch of tornadic landfalling hurricanes in the United States in 2024, following on the heels of Beryl and Debby.
How Unusual Are Hurricanes, Tropical Storms For Hawaii?
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July Weather: The 5 Things We Watch For
By Chris, Dolce, Linda Lam and Jon Erdman 5 days ago July is typically the hottest month of the year for much of the nation. Hurricane season activity continues a slow tick upward in July. It's also the Northeast's peak of severe weather. The monsoon ramps up in the Desert Southwest and thunderstorm clusters roam the Plains.
El Niño Ends And La Niña Is Likely To Develop Next
By Chris Dolce and Jon Erdman less than an hour ago El Niño conditions have ended in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest forecast expects La Niña to follow by late this summer or fall. This can affect atmospheric weather patterns across the globe. That includes the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and next winter.
Classic Ingredients For A Severe Weather Outbreak
By Jonathan Belles and Jon Erdman 2 hours ago Certain ingredients combine to produce swarms of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. These outbreaks can spawn dozens of tornadoes and hundreds of wind damage and hail reports. Wind shear is a critical factor in the development and longevity of supercells. Outbreaks occur when a powerful jet stream punches ahead of a cold front over warm and humid air.
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names
By Jonathan Belles and Jon Erdman 2 hours ago This is the same list that was used in 2018 with some exceptions. There are two new names this year: Francine and Milton. Two names have never been used: Valerie and William. The list of 2024 Atlantic hurricane season names includes several that might sound familiar, along with two new ones. One of the names on this year’s list is the oldest surviving name on any of the current rotating lists.
Rare South Atlantic Tropical Storm Akará Forms
By Jon Erdman and Jonathan Belles less than an hour ago Infrared satellite history of the subtropical cyclone that would eventually become Tropical Storm Akará from Feb. 16-19, 2024, off the coast of Brazil. Low pressure off the coast of Brazil morphed into a tropical storm Sunday. The South Atlantic Ocean typically doesn't see many such storms. They're usually subtropical depressions or storms when they do happen. Twenty years ago, one of these became the only-known South Atlantic hurricane.
Weather We're Watching On President's Day Weekend
There's more rain headed to California. Florida's in for some rain, too. Some spots in the North will feel like April. Some of you are coming off a burst of winter weather, while others are still waiting to see if it’s ever going to show up. Meanwhile, many places in the far north, like Minnesota, are in the midst of a historically long winter warm period.
Should There Be A Category 6 For Hurricanes?
New research aims to draw attention to the way climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous. The current Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale tops out at Category 5. It doesn't account for storm surge and other risks. A conversation popped up recently in one of our daily staff weather briefings: Should a Category 6 be added to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which currently tops out at Cat 5?
Weekend Weather: What We're Watching | Weather.com
Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists. Your weather could run hot or cold this weekend, depending on where you are. And don’t forget about the rain. One place that doesn’t have to worry much about conditions through the weekend? Las Vegas, where the Super Bowl will be played indoors.
Atlanta's "Snowpocalypse", 10 Years Later
Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists. Catawampus lines of abandoned vehicles littered the interstates. Drivers with no way home walked to local businesses and slept on the floor. Thousands of kids were stuck at school overnight. Locals called it the “snowpocalypse.” Or, “snowmageddon.” Or, “snow jam.” If there was a catchy superlative for a city being shut down by winter weather, Atlanta on Jan. 28 and Jan.
Here's The Weekend Weather We're Tracking
An East Coast storm could bring wind, rain and some snow. One spot in Russia dropped to minus 73.7 degrees Fahrenheit. Don't forget about El Niño. “Conversational flakes” were mentioned a lot in our staff weather briefings this week. That’s what meteorologists call the kind of harmless flurries that are often the first glimpse of winter. They’re something to admire or talk about, but typically no big deal in terms of impacts.
November Weather: 'Witch Storms' And More
November can feature Midwest "witch storms," first snows for some and severe weather. Hurricane season comes to a close. Florida's dry season begins as the wet season ramps up in the West. November can be a dynamic weather month since the hand off between fall and winter is fully underway, which means there is often a mix of weather conditions in any given year. Here are a few of the things we watch for, beginning with a spooky-sounding nickname for a type of storm.
First Accumulating Snow: Here's When It Arrives
Snow has already whitened the ground in parts of the Rockies and Plains this fall, but the first accumulating snow typically doesn't arrive until November or December for many other parts of the country. (MORE: El Niño's Impact On Snow) How accumulating snow is defined by meteorologists: Snow totaling 0.1 inches or more is what qualifies as accumulating snow, which is also known as measurable snow.
Does El Niño Help End Hurricane Season Earlier?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through the end of November. Some seasons have seen their last storm weeks before the official end. El Niño hurricane seasons have typically ended earlier than average. Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30, but most seasons have their final named storm well before that date, and it's historically been even earlier in El Niño years.
Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms Off Southeast Coast
Tropical Storm Ophelia is located south of eastern North Carolina. The storm will move north along the Eastern Seaboard this weekend. Rain, wind and coastal flooding will spread up the Eastern Seaboard. Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed off the Southeast U.S. coast, and it will spread heavy rain, strong wind gusts, high surf, and coastal flooding up the Eastern Seaboard into the weekend.
Potential Storm 'Ophelia' Brewing Off Southeast Coast
Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists. A tropical or subtropical storm is likely in the process of forming off the Southeast U.S. coast, and it will spread heavy rain, strong wind gusts, high surf, coastal flooding and rip currents up the East Coast into the weekend. Here's the latest on this brewing storm.
Tropical Storm Warning Issued For East Coast
A tropical storm may develop off the coast of the Southeast U.S. by Friday. That storm will move north along the Eastern Seaboard into the weekend. Rain, wind and coastal flooding will spread up the Eastern Seaboard, regardless of what this system is called. A tropical storm is expected to form off the Southeast U.S. coast, and will spread heavy rain, strong wind gusts, high surf, coastal flooding and rip currents up the East Coast into the weekend.
Southeast Coast Low Could Become 'Subtropical' Original
Low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of the Southeast U.S. late this week. It could become a subtropical depression or storm by this weekend. Rain and wind will spread up the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, regardless of development. Another system is likely to develop in the eastern Atlantic later this week.
El Niño Could Become Strong This Winter, NOAA Latest Update Says
Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists. El Niño is expected to intensify in the coming months and could become moderate to strong, possibly influencing hurricane season and the weather we see this winter, according to a just-released monthly update from NOAA. Here's are the main takeaways from the July update. 1. Weak El Niño conditions remain in place after the event was officially deemed underway a month ago.
El Niño Could Become Strong This Winter, NOAA Says
Weak El Niño conditions continue to be in place. El Niño could peak at moderate to strong intensity by this winter. This warmer water near the equator in the Pacific Ocean can affect weather patterns thousands of miles away. That could impact the hurricane season and the coming winter.
Heat Expands Across The South This Week
Record heat has persisted across Texas for more than a week. The heat will expand across much of the South this week, as well as into parts of the Midwest. The hotter than average temperatures are expected to last into the beginning of July. The dangerous heat and potential for daily records will spread across much of the South, as well as northward into parts of the Midwest, this week.
5 Things We Usually Watch For In July's Weather
July is typically the hottest time of year for much of the nation. Hurricane season activity continues a slow tick upward and severe weather peaks in the Northeast. The monsoon ramps up in the Desert Southwest and thunderstorm clusters roam the Plains and Midwest. July naturally brings to mind sweltering temperatures since it's midsummer, but hurricane season is also beginning its upward swing in activity and thunderstorms can be problematic in many parts of the country.
What Is An Atmospheric River? Explaining The Blessing And Curse
Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists. An atmospheric river is a weather feature that is both a necessity and, all too often, a destructive menace – particularly for those near the West Coast of the United States. Put simply, an atmospheric river (AR) is a thin but long plume of moisture in the atmosphere that stretches from the tropics or subtropics into higher latitudes.
Here's When The First Accumulating Snow Of The Season Typically Arrives
The first measurable snow of the season is defined as 0.1 inches or greater accumulation. Portions of the Rockies and the nation's northern tier see the first snow in September or October. Many locations in the Midwest and Northeast wait until November or December. The first accumulating snow of the season has already fallen in portions of the West, Midwest and Northeast, but for some locales, it's still a waiting game, and others might not see any at all this winter.
Much Colder Air Is Headed For the U.S., But it Doesn’t Compare to These Historic Outbreaks | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com
A colder weather pattern is headed for parts of the U.S. into next week. This cold blast will likely not rival some of the harshest in history. A cold outbreak in Feb. 1899 was particularly noteworthy for its magnitude, coverage and longevity. The coldest temperatures so far this winter will arrive in portions of the Plains and Midwest this weekend, but this arctic outbreak likely won't rank among the worst in history. America's harshest cold blast happened over 120 years ago this month.
Can It Snow In September? It May Sound Early, But Here's Where It Could Happen
Snow in September has been measured in many locations in the United States. A few cities experience snowfall in September fairly regularly. Signs of fall become more visible during September, and in some areas, that even includes a preview of winter with snowfall. While the first three weeks of September are still officially summer, there are several locations in the U.S. where September snow occurs just often enough to not be considered a freak event.
Snow In September Can Happen
Snow in September has been measured in many locations in the United States. A few cities experience snowfall in September fairly regularly. It may still feel like summer in September, but fall weather is right around the corner and in some areas of the United States, a peek of winter emerges. Meteorological fall begins Sept. 1 and astronomical fall starts Sept. 23, indicating a shift from summer to winter is getting started.
China Flooding Kills Another 14 People; More than 140 People Have Died This Month
China is seeing unusually high rainfall this year during the annual flooding season. Landslides killed six people in one town in Chongqing. More than 1,900 people were trapped in their homes in the Hubei city of Enshi. Officials have opened three floodgates on the massive Three Gorges Dam. Soldiers and other workers scrambled to keep the Yangtze River and its tributaries within their banks Saturday with sandbags and rocks as deadly flooding continued across much of China.
Central California Wildfire Consumes Over 22 Square Miles, Forces Evacuations
The Mineral Fire began Monday near Coalinga, California. Officials issued a "health caution" for Fresno County because of smoke. The fire forced evacuations northwest of the city. Overnight winds continued to push a wildfire near Coalinga in Central California higher into rugged terrain on Thursday. The blaze, known as the Mineral Fire, has consumed more than 22 square miles and was only 15% contained late Wednesday, according to the Fresno County Fire Protection District.
What We Typically See in the Weather in July
July is typically the hottest time of year for much of the nation. Tropical storms and hurricanes can affect parts of the Southeast or Gulf coasts in July. July is also the peak month for severe weather in the Northeast. Monsoon season ramps up in the Desert Southwest. Large clusters of thunderstorms rumble across the Plains and Midwest. The weather in July can be quite interesting and impactful even though the jet stream and cold fronts are both weaker in mid-summer.
Pilger, Nebraska Twin Tornadoes: How They Happened and How Unusual They Were
The supercell that simultaneously spawned a pair of large tornadoes in Pilger, Nebraska, on Monday was a frightening sight. Let's delve into the science behind this situation and how often it occurs. One Supercell: A Family of Tornadoes Below is a radar loop of Monday's storm from the National Weather Service Doppler radar near Omaha, Nebraska.
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