Jonathan Belles
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Digital Meteorologist @ Weather.com - Former FSU Weather Met of 4 Years; FSU Master's Grad '15; Opinions = Mine
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Articles by Jonathan Belles
AI models outperform rivals during Hurricane Isaias' lifespan
AI forecasting has transformed meteorology in recent years. Here's how Google's DeepMind model stacked up against traditional guidance for Hurricane Isaias. We got a glimpse of what the Google DeepMind (GDM) model could do during last hurricane season, and we’ve been watching all of the AI models this season, too, but Hurricane Isaias provided the first real test for it this Atlantic hurricane season.
Isaias threats: Flooding, winds, tornadoes possible for much of East
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Isaias is well inland over the Southeast but still has a threat of flooding rain, strong wind gusts and tornadoes in parts of the South and East through Sunday. Hurricane Isaias made landfall Friday night in the Florida Panhandle at Category 2 strength. Wind gusts over 110 mph were clocked in several panhandle locations, along with storm surge flooding. Over 700,000 customers are without power in its wake. We have a full recap of the events leading up to landfall at the bottom of this article.
By Jennifer Gray, Miriam Guthrie, Rob Shackelford, Jonathan Erdman, Jonathan Belles Verified, Caitlin Kaiser Verified, Faiza Mohammed
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Ask a met: How did Isaias manage to form and strengthen despite El Niño?
"How did Isaias manage to form and strengthen despite El Niño?" — Sarah You’ve likely heard that El Niño makes it more difficult for storms like Isaias to form. The reason that El Niño is often associated with less active hurricane seasons is because it provides stronger winds than usual above 10,000 feet. This creates a shearing effect for storms that makes it harder for them to form, and when they do form, it makes it harder for them to grow.
Ask a met: How did Isaias manage to form and strengthen despite El Niño?
Follow Ask a met: How did Isaias manage to form and strengthen despite El Niño? Updated Sat, October 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT "How did Isaias manage to form and strengthen despite El Niño?" — Sarah You've likely heard that El Niño makes it more difficult for storms like Isaias to form. The reason that El Niño is often associated with less active hurricane seasons is because it provides stronger winds than usual above 10,000 feet.
Hurricane Isaias makes landfall near Destin, Florida, as a Category 2
Hurricane Isaias has made landfall in Destin, Florida as a Category 2 with winds of 105 mph. Wind gusts as high as 116 mph have been reported in the Florida Panhandle this evening. It is the first hurricane landfall of the season anywhere in the Atlantic. For the latest on Hurricane Isaias, you can find the latest forecast here and follow all the latest news with our live blog here.
Hurricane Isaias makes landfall near Destin, Florida, as a Category 2
Follow Hurricane Isaias makes landfall near Destin, Florida, as a Category 2 Jonathan Belles, Miriam Guthrie Updated Fri, October 9, 2026 at 7:54 PM EDT Hurricane Isaias has made landfall in Destin, Florida as a Category 2 with winds of 105 mph. Wind gusts as high as 116 mph have been reported in the Florida Panhandle this evening. It is the first hurricane landfall of the season anywhere in the Atlantic.
Isaias maps tracker: Forecast cone, alerts and more
Isaias brings high winds, flooding, storm surge and tornadoes to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. It's the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season. Isaias will bring heavy rain and high winds well inland across the Southeast this weekend. For the latest forecast with full details on this storm, click here. The map below shows the general risk from Isaias and its inland remnant, including from rainfall flooding and damaging winds. This map will update throughout the duration of the storm.
Hurricane Isaias maps tracker: Forecast cone, spaghetti models, alerts
Isaias will bring high winds, flooding and tornadoes to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. It's the season's first hurricane and continues to strengthen. Hurricane Isaias is strengthening and will bring heavy rain, storm surge flooding and high winds to the Gulf Coast and flash flooding well inland in the Southeast this weekend. That includes southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. For the latest forecast with full details on this storm, click here.
Tropical Storm Isaias maps tracker: Forecast cone, spaghetti models and more
Tropical Storm Isaias, that is forecast to become a hurricane, will bring heavy rain, storm surge flooding and high winds to the Gulf Coast, and local flash flooding well inland in the Southeast this weekend. That includes southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama and the Florida panhandle. You can track the storm in all its twists and turns here. For the latest forecast with full details on this storm, click here. By signing up you agree to the Terms & Privacy Policy.
Track future Gulf Hurricane Isaias here with latest models and more
Follow Track future Gulf Hurricane Isaias here with latest models and more Updated Tue, October 6, 2026 at 5:31 PM EDT What is forecast to become Hurricane Isaias will bring heavy rain, storm surge flooding and high winds to the Gulf Coast, and local flash flooding well inland in the Southeast this weekend. That includes southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama and the Florida panhandle. You can track the storm in all its twists and turns here.
Track the future Gulf tropical storm here with satellite, spaghetti and more
A likely tropical storm, to be called Isaias, will bring rain and gusty winds to the Gulf Coast into this weekend, including southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama plus the Florida panhandle. You can track the storm in all its twists and turns here. For the latest forecast with full details on this storm, click here. These are areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, which are shown in purple.
Don't miss these warning signs if you rely on well water
Millions of Americans, especially in the East and Great Lakes regions, rely on private wells for water, with New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and North Carolina having the most well users. Research suggests that millions of wells worldwide could run dry if water tables drop even a few feet, with up to 20% of wells studied in 40 countries at risk of drying up, impacting lower-income communities the most.
Don't miss these warning signs if you rely on well water
Deep stone-lined well with a bucket on a rope lowered toward dark water at the bottom More than one in ten Americans rely on private wells, and research suggests millions of wells worldwide could run dry if water tables drop even a few feet. Millions are still on well water, especially in the East and Great Lakes. New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and North Carolina have the most well users. Meanwhile water usage is growing as populations rise and warming temperatures are drying up more water.
This town broke the flood cycle and cut insurance costs
For years, Walton, New York, was stuck in a familiar cycle: flood, rebuild, flood again. Every time the Delaware River and its tributaries overflowed, water poured into the same homes, farms and businesses. Every time, the cleanup ended with rebuilding in the same spots that had just flooded. We at Weather.com have covered similar stories dozens of times in the past. But this community changed its approach. Instead of rebuilding where the water had been, Walton gave the water a place to go.
This town broke the flood cycle and cut insurance costs
Map of New York State highlighting Walton, labeled "Flood success story," with Syracuse, Albany, and New York City marked For years, Walton, New York, was stuck in a familiar cycle: flood, rebuild, flood again. Every time the Delaware River and its tributaries overflowed, water poured into the same homes, farms and businesses. Every time, the cleanup ended with rebuilding in the same spots that had just flooded. We at Weather.com have covered similar stories dozens of times in the past.
Ask a met: Polo, Nolo, Lala? What's the deal with all the Pacific hurricane names that are just two repeating syllables?
"Polo, Nolo, Lala? What's the deal with all the Pacific hurricane names that are just two repeating syllables?" — Kevin A lot of this comes down to coincidence and time of the year, but there are some linguistics embedded in the Central Pacific names that tipped the chances of repeated syllables. Let’s start with Marco Polo, err… Polo 'n Nolo. These are the names that have gotten the most chatter in the newsroom and online in the last few weeks.
Ask a met: Polo, Nolo, Lala? What's the deal with all the Pacific hurricane names that are just two repeating syllables?
Follow Ask a met: Polo, Nolo, Lala? What's the deal with all the Pacific hurricane names that are just two repeating syllables? Updated Sat, October 3, 2026 at 7:00 AM EDT Key takeawaysPowered by Yahoo Scout. Yahoo is using AI to generate key points from this article. This means the info may not always match what’s in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.
Potential tropical development in the western Gulf by mid-October
Models suggest that we could see a tropical depression or storm in the week ahead in the Bay of Campeche, but the Gulf Coast will continue its rainy streak. Anything that tries to form will need to find a safe spot from wind shear, but it could form in a zone known for development in October.
The West’s best shot at snowpack recovery comes from El Niño
Follow The West’s best shot at snowpack recovery comes from El Niño Thu, October 1, 2026 at 9:53 AM EDT Key takeawaysPowered by Yahoo Scout. Yahoo is using AI to generate key points from this article. This means the info may not always match what’s in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. El Nino is expected to bring above-average rain and snow to the Southwest, potentially replenishing reservoirs like Lake Mead and Lake Powell.
The West’s best shot at snowpack recovery comes from El Niño
After years of diminishing winter snowpack and lowering lake levels in the West, El Niño could make this the year to recharge those reservoirs, including California’s watershed, and lakes Mead and Powell. The Sierra Nevada and the Rockies are likely to see a lot of help from a jet stream called the Pineapple Express. This rainmaking "firehose" is a direct movement of moisture from around Hawaii to the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada during the winter months.
Fall's first freeze: Here's when it arrives in your area
Your first fall freeze is coming, but when it arrives depends a lot on where you live. For most of us, it ranges from September through November. First freeze This is when the temperature drops to 32 degrees or lower for the first time in the colder months of the year. It signals the end of the growing season — the threshold when unprotected plants can become damaged if temperatures remain at or below freezing for multiple hours.
When can you expect the first accumulating snowfall of the season?
October marks the seasonal shift toward the first accumulating snow of the season in parts of the nation's northern tier and Mountain West, while many other areas typically wait until November or December. This year's super El Niño could change that timeline in some parts of the country. How do meteorologists define the first accumulating snow? Snow totaling 0.1 inches or more is what qualifies as accumulating snow, also known as measurable snow.
Fall's first freeze: Here's when it arrives in your area
Your first freeze is coming: average dates across US by region Your first fall freeze is coming, but when it arrives depends a lot on where you live. For most of us, it ranges from September through November. First freeze This is when the temperature drops to 32 degrees or lower for the first time in the colder months of the year. It signals the end of the growing season — the threshold when unprotected plants can become damaged if temperatures remain at or below freezing for multiple hours.
Dengue surge becomes Florida's largest outbreak on record
Florida is in the midst of its largest dengue fever outbreak on record with more than 190 cases this year, including at least 38 new cases in September. Dengue is a tropical viral infection caused by a virus transmitted to humans by infected mosquitoes. It is most common in tropical and subtropical climates, especially in urban and suburban communities.
Why El Niño has Panama Canal shippers watching the rainfall
El Niño is ramping up, but that means traffic through the Panama Canal is slowing down and becoming more expensive. For you, that could show up as higher prices. Millions of gallons of water from Panama's Gatún and Alajuela lakes fill manmade locks, raising and lowering ships as they pass through the canal. The canal depends on rainfall to fill the two lakes that act to move shipping traffic from the Atlantic to the Pacific and vice versa.
Why El Niño has Panama Canal shippers watching the rain
El Niño could slow Panama Canal shipping with an early dry season El Niño is ramping up, but that means traffic through the Panama Canal is slowing down and becoming more expensive. For you, that could show up as higher prices. Millions of gallons of water from Panama's Gatún and Alajuela lakes fill manmade locks, raising and lowering ships as they pass through the canal.
Why El Niño has Panama Canal shippers watching the rain
Cargo ship passing through Agua Clara locks at the Panama Canal, with a bridge visible in the background El Niño is ramping up, but that means traffic through the Panama Canal is slowing down and becoming more expensive. For you, that could show up as higher prices. Millions of gallons of water from Panama's Gatún and Alajuela lakes fill manmade locks, raising and lowering ships as they pass through the canal.
Nor'easter inundates Northeast communities, kills one and leaves 100,000 without power
A sluggish but potent nor'easter has submerged communities from North Carolina to New England while knocking out power to well over 100,000 customers across the Northeast. The early-season storm comes amid highest king tides of the month for the East Coast. A state of emergency was declared in New Jersey, southern New York and in multiple local communities across the Northeast ahead of the storm.
Deadly nor'easter lingers; tens of thousands without power
A sluggish but potent nor'easter is lingering over the Northeast Monday after submerging communities from North Carolina to New England while knocking out power to well over 100,000 customers. Some rain and windy conditions will continue, as well minor coastal flooding during high tides. The early-season storm comes amid the highest king tides of the month for the East Coast.
September likely to be a rare Atlantic hurricane shutout
We're nearing the end of September, and we have yet to see a hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic. It's already, by far, the longest wait on record for the season's first hurricane in the satellite era. Previously, that record long wait was Sept. 11 in both 2013 and 2002. An average Atlantic hurricane season would have five hurricanes by September 28, according to the National Hurricane Center.
September likely to be a rare Atlantic hurricane shutout
We're nearing the end of September, and we have yet to see a hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic. It's already, by far, the longest wait on record for the season's first hurricane in the satellite era. Previously, that record long wait was Sept. 11 in both 2013 and 2002. An average Atlantic hurricane season would have five hurricanes by September 28, according to the National Hurricane Center. By signing up you agree to the Terms & Privacy Policy. Unsubscribe at any time.
Ask a met: Isn't a nor'easter a winter storm? How's it happening in September?
Follow Ask a met: Isn't a nor'easter a winter storm? How's it happening in September? Sat, September 26, 2026 at 6:20 AM EDT Key takeawaysPowered by Yahoo Scout. Yahoo is using AI to generate key points from this article. This means the info may not always match what’s in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.
Ask a met: Isn't a nor'easter a winter storm? How's it happening in September?
If you’re thinking it’s too early for a nor’easter, you’d be right. The peak time for nor’easters and coastal storms in general is January to March when there is a strong jet stream, plentiful cold air from Canada and often a strong high pressure system over New England or eastern Canada. But sometimes, those ingredients come into play earlier in the season. That’s what happened this week.
What a historic super El Niño ahead means for your fall and winter Original
The current super El Niño is likely to become the strongest on record in over 75 years, with impacts on hurricane season, rainfall and temperatures as we move through fall and winter. What’s new El Niño continues to intensify, with water temperatures now greater than 3°C above average in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Based on daily data using an old "oceanic Niño index" (ONI), this would be a new all-time record.
State of emergency declared for California ahead of potentially historic El Niño
(Peter Zay/Anadolu via Getty Images) Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, declared a state of emergency for the entire state on Monday morning ahead of what is likely to become a historic El Niño. "I find that conditions of extreme peril to the safety of persons and property exist due to the developing El Niño event," the declaration states.
State of emergency declared for California ahead of potentially historic El Niño
Follow State of emergency declared for California ahead of potentially historic El Niño Updated Mon, September 21, 2026 at 12:42 PM EDT Key takeawaysPowered by Yahoo Scout. Yahoo is using AI to generate key points from this article. This means the info may not always match what’s in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Governor Newsom declares a state of emergency for California in preparation for a historic El Nino event.
State of emergency declared for California ahead of potentially historic El Niño
Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, declared a state of emergency for the entire state on Monday morning ahead of what is likely to become a historic El Niño. "I find that conditions of extreme peril to the safety of persons and property exist due to the developing El Niño event," the declaration states. This state of emergency is not an announcement that an emergency is already ongoing, but a statement of preparation for the storms that are ahead this winter.
September could be a rare Atlantic hurricane shutout
We're two weeks into September, and we have yet to see a hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic. It's already the longest wait on record for the season's first hurricane in the satellite era. Only twice since World War II has this peak month of hurricane season failed to generate a single Atlantic hurricane. Those two seasons – 1962 and 1994 – each produced seven tropical storms throughout the season and both seasons saw multiple back-of-season hurricane formations.
September could be a rare Atlantic hurricane shutout
Man carrying metal storm shutter panels to a yellow shingled house before a hurricane We're two weeks into September, and we have yet to see a hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic. It's already the longest wait on record for the season's first hurricane in the satellite era. Only twice since World War II has this peak month of hurricane season failed to generate a single Atlantic hurricane.
Beware: Your getaway spot might not be normal this winter
El Niño is expected to soak popular winter escapes like Orlando and Palm Springs, while boosting ski season in California, Utah and New Mexico. New England skiers may not be as lucky. If you're heading abroad, expect unusual heat in the Southern Hemisphere and drought is in play across the Caribbean and Central America.
3 dead in New Mexico flooding; flash flood warnings issued in Arizona
Follow 3 dead in New Mexico flooding; flash flood warnings issued in Arizona Mark Smith, Jonathan Belles Updated Wed, September 16, 2026 at 3:26 PM EDT Summer monsoon dumps on Alamorosa at sunset Key takeawaysPowered by Yahoo Scout. Yahoo is using AI to generate key points from this article. This means the info may not always match what’s in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience.
3 dead in New Mexico flooding; flash flood warnings issued in Arizona
Three people — two adults and one child — have been killed by flooding in northwest New Mexico, and flash flooding could bring more life-threatening conditions to the Southwest on Thursday. Police received a report overnight of people being washed away near Newcomb, New Mexico, according to local media reports. The three bodies were later recovered, and they appeared to have drowned, police said. Little additional information about how the victims drowned was immediately available.
Get flood insurance now, before El Niño-influenced storms hit California
California's rainy season is weeks from ramping up, and this year's storms could be turbocharged by the strengthening super El Niño. Flooding is an increasing risk for many communities across the Golden State, but there's at least one thing you can do today to recover swiftly should the worst happen: get flood insurance.
Get flood insurance now, before El Niño-influenced storms hit California
California's rainy season is weeks from ramping up, and this year's storms could be turbocharged by the strengthening super El Niño. Flooding is an increasing risk for many communities across the Golden State, but there's at least one thing you can do today to recover swiftly should the worst happen: get flood insurance. California faces flooding risks from three main sources: rainfall runoff, intensified flooding near burn scars from previous wildfires and coastal flooding.
Potentially historic super El Niño: What does it mean for your weather?
We are already seeing the effects of the super El Niño impacting hurricane season, and will likely continue to see these enhanced effects on rainfall and temperatures as we move through fall and into winter. The latest status update and outlook on El Niño was just released by NOAA. Here’s what you need to know. • El Niño has continued to strengthen this month, with water temperatures now greater than 3°C above average in the eastern Pacific. This is still a very strong (or super) El Niño.
Potentially historic super El Niño: What does it mean for your weather?
We are already seeing the effects of the super El Niño impacting hurricane season, and will likely continue to see these enhanced effects on rainfall and temperatures as we move through fall and into winter. The latest status update and outlook on El Niño was just released by NOAA. Here's what you need to know. What's new El Niño has continued to strengthen this month, with water temperatures now greater than 3°C above average in the eastern Pacific. This is still a very strong (or super) El Niño.
How early can it snow near you? Here's the record for each state Original
The first snow of the season can fall as early as September in the Rockies, Upper Midwest and northern New England, but most wait until October or November. Across the Northeast, Midwest and Northwest, the earliest measurable snow on record has come in October. If you're waiting on snow in the South, you'll wait the longest — and El Niño may have something to say about it this season.
That burning smell: What's normal when the fall's first heat turns on?
Woman in plaid shirt crouching beside a furnace, gesturing while inspecting the unit in a garage. Summer has finally gone away, but it now smells like something is going to burn to a crisp in your home after you turn on the heat for the first time. What gives? The good news: You've already roasted enough under heat domes this summer that your indoor furnace probably isn't going to finish the job. But those dust bunnies that have been loafing around on your heater all summer, yeah... they're toast.
Scientists discover raindrops carry an electric charge that eats metal
Follow Scientists discover raindrops carry an electric charge that eats metal Updated Fri, September 4, 2026 at 12:12 PM EDT Key takeawaysPowered by Yahoo Scout. Yahoo is using AI to generate key points from this article. This means the info may not always match what’s in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Scientists have discovered that water carrying an electrical charge can puncture the protective coating on copper and gold, leading to corrosion.
Scientists discover raindrops carry an electric charge that eats metal
Scientists have recently discovered a new source of corrosion that we didn't know about, and it comes from thunderstorms and friction. Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Polymer Research in Germany found that water carrying an electrical charge can puncture the protective coating on copper and gold in a laboratory. The electricity comes from expected places like a thunderstorm, but static electricity created by friction plays a role, too.
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