Jonathan Carr
- Founder and Weather Forecaster, Weather NJ
- Director of Technology & CISO, Envision Innovative Solutions, Inc.
New Jersey
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Articles by Jonathan Carr
More Stellar Fall Conditions
Discussion: A lot of ridging expected this week, sending more W/NW flow aloft over our area. Not seeing any systems or major drivers to change this pattern until likely after this weekend. Every day looks great for outdoor interests. We will see a spike in temps on Friday (highs in the 70s). But the rest of the week and this weekend looks more like highs in the 60s. There’s not much else to say. But it’s hard to believe how close we are to the start of snow tracking season.
Immaculate Fall Conditions
Discussion: A rather simple forecast for the next week or so. Ridging over Great Lakes steering W/NW upper flow into NJ. High pressure in control for the surface and lower levels. This should create immaculate fall conditions with clear skies and seasonably fall feelz. Not much rain showing for the rest of October. October wasn’t as wet as prior months so we’re actually an inch or two below average for Oct precipitation. Enjoy the outdoor fall activities, whatever you have planned.
Gorgeous October Conditions
Discussion: This week should feature some of the most beautiful October NJ conditions we’ve seen in a while. We’re talking chilly-but-comfortable highs in the 60s, lots of sunshine, and colder overnights where at least the usual colder spots (NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens) flirt with dropping to freezing temperatures. There’s not much else to say about the sky this week. Enjoy! Now to address the offshore ocean low. I’m going to say some things that could be hot takes.
Stormy Fall Continues
Discussion: A warm sector will bring more anomalous warmth to NJ on Friday with stiff SW winds. This should set up a storm front in the evening but a very short one. The precipitation strip looks very thin on model guidance. However, it could pack a punch. I think most of NJ is on the hook for a brief period of gusty rainfall and rumbles.
Rude Awakening after Anomalous Warmth
Discussion: This crap (80 degrees with humidity) was supposed to be over for the year. But Isaias decided to form and hurl a bunch of warmth and humidity at NJ as a ridge develops. This is going to result in some whacky temperature swings between now and this weekend. It looks like we’re going to start the buildup Tuesday and flex the warmest and most humid on Wednesday. This should put a lot of places 10 degrees or more above average for mid-October. This should be the extent of the ridge flex.
Saturday Better than Sunday
Discussion: Isaias made landfall in far W FL Panhandle this evening as a category 2 hurricane. The trend is a quick fall apart. It’s already down to a cat 1 with more weakening expected into Saturday morning. Isaias will now track NW towards N Louisiana, hit a ridge and exit stage right towards NJ. So, the remnant low will pass over or near NJ Sunday. It will just be too weak to produce any sort of alarming situation. NJ is looking at a half-inch to 1.5 inches of rain, maybe some spots see 2.
Gorgeous Fall Conditions
Discussion: A rather zonal look to the upper levels this week with a general W/NW flow of colder air aloft from Canada. Most surface conditions will revolve around high pressure moving across the E US/Mid-Atlantic US from W to E. We’re coldest in front of the high (Today-Tues) AM), beautiful underneath the high (Wed-Thurs) and then we moderate milder behind the high (Friday-Weekend). But all conditions this week look dry with lower humidity.
Weekend Outlook – Mixed Transition into Fall
Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, looks zonal to the N of NJ this weekend. It will try to kink up a little as a trough misses to the N of NJ Monday. That will however introduce a cooler W/NW flow for much of next week. Tonight’s frontal precipitation doesn’t look like a bug deal (high winds, severe outbreak, etc.). I’m thinking a short period of rain and maybe some rumbles within. If anything goes severe, it would be extremely isolated.
Weekly Outlook – Summer Gasps Back
Discussion: The nor’easter is out of here and good riddance! Although I must admit, it felt kind of good to track a low-pressure system close to the 40N/70W benchmark. I don’t think we’re going to see the last of systems like this for fall and winter. We’re probably looking at a very active storm pattern for the next 6 months as El Nino peaks and begins it’s initial descent early decent sometime late-winter.
Nor’easter Dissolves and Departs
Discussion: I want to reemphasize a few points. Awesome followers can skip this paragraph. Throughout this entire week, I maintained that areas away from the ocean would see a run-of-mill manageable rain and wind event experienced many times before. I emphasized that my primary concern was for immediate Jersey shorelines in ECNJ/SENJ…communities affected by tidal water levels and peak wind gusts off the ocean. You can check tape of YouTube and read the lead-up articles.
Nor’easter Approaching
Models have trended even more towards a harder New Jersey hit from this weekend’s nor’easter. Here are the updated rain, wind and coastal flooding impacts with graphics and text: The storm’s outer precipitation bands are nearing the Jersey shore but still have some time before pushing onto land. I expect that to happen by late tonight/NLT early Saturday am hours.
Nor’easter a GO!
Discussion: We’ve beaten the physics of this nor’easter setup to death this week. Organizing low pressure off the SE US/OBX phased into low that will run into a block. The block will trap the storm into at least a stall/retrograde but possibly into a loop towards the Jersey shore. It’s time to move on from physics and focus on actual expected impacts.
Nor’easter Developing
Discussion: Model guidance remains split on the track of this weekend’s nor’easter. I am however giving it a go as in, it’s happening. The energy has been coming together off the SE US for a day or two now and with the blocking developing to the N and E of NJ, I think we’re at least going to feel some level of impact from the nor’easter. Let’s look at where the goalposts are at this point. We have two scenarios IMO: Scenario 1: Nor’easter takes more of an offshore track (like the GFS and GFS AI).
Weekend Nor’easter Update
Discussion: I’ve been keeping an eye on the data guidance for this weekend’s potential nor’easter. The GFS, GFS AI and Canadian models remain offshore with their solutions, suggesting the phasing dynamics happening too late to wrap it up into a major NJ hit. Instead you see more of a Cape Cod/Coastal New England hit.
Possible Nor’easter Detected
Discussion: I know we’ve been looking at this possibility for a bit in KABOOM Club. I wish to emphasize the uncertainty mainly due to a complex system of moving parts (phasing, etc.) having to come together just perfectly for the NJ hit scenario. Sounds familiar, right? Yes, we’ll be doing this song and dance in a few months with coastal snowstorms. But for this system, precipitation type will be all rain. General weather media has absolutely jumped the shark with this system.
Alright Until the Rain Starts
Discussion: Most 250mb upper jet and 500mg geopotential height analysis is unremarkable for lower level expectations this weekend into next week. We’re still in a near-zonal flow pattern oscillating between NW and W flow for NJ, which has been responsible for our transitions between warm/muggy and cool/comfortable. Today (Friday) was the last warm/muggy day above 80. We’ll now turn cool/comfortable for a beautiful tomorrow (Saturday) before a prolonged period of cool/unsettled.
Warmth Humidity and Ultimately Rain Returns
Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, should stay just to the N of NJ for the rest of this week and weekend with high pressure over or to the S of NJ. At 500mb, that’s going to build up a few warm days of E US ridging before the pattern caves back to cooler temperatures for the weekend. A cold front is expected to pass through Friday into Saturday morning.
A Rainy Saturday Night into Sunday Morning
Discussion: The upper flow should remain zonal for the weekend but then kink into a NW flow pattern for next week. At the surface this means humid and rain conditions for NJ between Saturday afternoon/evening and Sunday around noon. Improvement is expected Sunday afternoon-forward. The humidity should drop again and so will temperatures for much of next week.
September is Septembering
Discussion: What a Labor Day Weekend of pleasant weather conditions! So, we’re well into September now and we’ve lost 139 minutes of daylight since the summer solstice. 14 calendar days remain in Summer 2026 with meteorological fall underway since Sept 1. The strong El Nino and African Saharan desert dust emissions should keep tropical interests along the east coast mitigated through the rest of peak hurricane season. We’ll keep our eyes open though should an anomaly present.
Good Stuff Incoming!
Discussion: The stormy humid “ring of fire” pattern is coming to an end after one more night of storms (tonight – Friday night). I will be tracking with radar observation posts. The cold front should push through from N to S during early Saturday AM hours which will make for a more comfortable Saturday and an extremely comfortable Sunday. These conditions should actually last through Wednesday before we reset some heat and humidity for Thurs-Sat.
Stormy Period Detected
Discussion: This week into Labor Day Weekend looks interesting to me. It could be our most storm-potent Ring of Fire pattern this entire year. And for that reason, we are in daily article mode rather than the traditional weekly outlook. Let’s review a little: A Ring of Fire pattern is when a ridge sets up to the W of NJ (over the Central US/S of the Great Lakes). This pattern indicates that the upper jet (observed at 250mb) is moving Up, over and down across the US.
More Transitional Conditions
Discussion: The models handled the last two days rather well. Specifically in the idea of all of NJ except for SENJ seeing the stronger storms Thursday and then only SENJ seeing some storms today. The storms have cleared the coast and we will now improve through tonight.
Thursday-Friday Thunderstorms Detected
Discussion: Two short waves in SE Canada will phase into a more potent upper low between today (Wednesday) and Saturday. This will put NJ in the very unsettled SE side of everything especially on Thursday and Friday. As of right now it looks like Thursday will have the better storm dynamics of the two days. And it looks like Thursday will have the best dynamics along and NW of the I-95/NJTP corridor.
Refreshing Start. Unsettled Thurs-Fri
Discussion: It’s hard to argue against a great feel outside today (Monday) and that should last through tomorrow (Tuesday). A low has tracked through SE Canada and dragged a cold front through NJ, ushering in a cooler/drier air mass. It’s not fall cold yet. But it’s certainly beautiful late-summer conditions. The upper-jet will relax into more of a zonal flow by Wednesday but we still have lower geopotential heights around today and tomorrow (Mon and Tues).
Unsettled Start. Improved Finish
Discussion: By the end of this weekend/start of next week, the upper jet is going to kink into more of a meridional look, with ridging in the W US and a trough dipping over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. This pattern should dominate the first half of next week before relaxing back to a zonal look for the second half of the week. This suggests a closed-off upper low over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US from about Saturday night through Wednesday morning.
Thunderstorms Approaching – A Stormy Thursday Evening
Discussion: Between now and around 8pm this evening, a disturbance will push through NJ from W to E in the form of a weak low and stormfront. Some initial action is pushing into SWNJ now (3pm) ahead of the main batch. However, the main event should occur between about 5-9pm, maybe 6-9pm. This evening’s system is targeting all of NJ with at least some rain and rumbles. CNJ and SNJ (all of NJ S of I-78) have a better chance to see potentially damaging wind conditions than NNJ does.
More Unsettled and Muggy Conditions
Discussion: For this week, we’re going to be under steady SW or W/SW flow aloft due to the jet stream orientation coming from a hot ridge upstream. Climatologically, we are losing the ability to push temperatures into the excessive/dangerous criteria. However, we can still have swampy tropical air masses with this sort of flow which will make 80-85 degrees feel more like 90-95. And that is what I expect most of this week.
I Can Feel Summer Slipping Away
Discussion: We’ve lost about 75 minutes of daylight since the summer solstice. By now many of you should be noticing later sunrises and earlier sunsets. As your captain of Kaboom Airlines, it is my duty to inform you that we’ve begun our initial descent towards the colder months.
Mon-Fri Storms to Break Humidity for Weekend
Discussion: The general upper level flow pattern should remain in place this week. A ridge currently over the SW US will slowly advance E towards the SE US by this weekend. At the same time, a trough in SE Canada will squeeze the upper-jet flow from a zonal flow this week toward more of a meridional flow by this weekend as the ridge bumps the C US jet northward. So upper flow will transition from W/NW to N/NW between now and Friday night.
Relentless Humidity and Storms
Discussion: High levels of humidity will remain the headline through at least Tuesday of next week. We’re not dealing with record actual temperatures, however the combination of 88-95 temps with dew points above 70 will push higher relative humidity values and heat indices near or above 100 on any given day until next Tuesday.
Unsettled and Muggy
Discussion: For most of this week, the upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ leaving us in a swampy humid air mass under building heights (ridge). Tonight (Monday night) into tomorrow (Tuesday) is the only exception when a weak cold front could push through and dry out conditions (less humidity – not so much colder). I am confident that the cold front makes it into NWNJ, also fairly confident it reaches into CNJ/I-95 area.
Run-of-Mill Mid-Summer Conditions
Discussion: The upper jet is rather unremarkable for the next week or so. No major dips (troughs) or peaks (ridges). The only thing that jumps out at me is SW flow aloft from the decaying front of the trough leading into the backside of a ridge over NJ. The SW flow likely means a warm (not hot) flow of air with humidity, showers and thunderstorms around most of next week, clearing in time for next weekend. For this weekend, expect run-of-mill mid-summer conditions.
Storm Update
Discussion: We are looking at two parts to the main event that are already underway for NNJ (currently 3:50pm). These parts are attached to the low and will rotate through NJ as I have them illustrated in the above cover image (radar imagery used with permission from ZoneWatch Pro). Both parts have the capability to produce flash floods and severe winds. Part 1 is into NNJ and will rotate out to the NE over the next several hours. But right now it’s slapping NNJ up pretty good.
Much Needed Rainfall on the Way
Discussion: Some much needed New Jersey rainfall is looking promising for the next few days, especially Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM. For the last few months, most rainfall has occurred from frontal systems and training thunderstorms. This opportunity is more of a synoptic-scale opportunity, what you sometimes hear referred to as a synoptic rainstorm.
Mid-Summer Dream
Discussion: I apologize in advance how this post might contribute towards summer shore traffic, but it looks like one of the best mid-summer weekends I’ve ever seen. The cold front came through yesterday (Wednesday) and cleared a lot of humidity out. Cold fronts, this time of year, have greater impacts on reducing humidity rather than temperatures. But dry 80s feel a lot cooler than swampy 80s. And at night, temps are dropping into the 50s rather than staying above 70. It’s night and day.
Thunderstorm Update
Discussion: The image above illustrates my best approximation of the warm front (red), cold front (blue) and today’s main cluster of thunderstorms (black). The warm front is almost through NJ (moving SW to NE). It just sparked a cell for NENJ that is currently moving out. Notice how soupy is feels on the other side of the warm front. Dew point temperatures went from 50s to 70s in less than 12 hours for most of NJ.
Here We Go Again
Discussion: Before we continue, I want to say that life-threatening/damaging winds from severe weather (straight-line or tornado) are a bad thing. I take my discussions very seriously when including such in my forecast, even if just a small, isolated threat of occurring within a larger less-severe stormy air mass. If there’s a possibility of severe winds and you do not receive them, that is a GOOD thing for you. Just want to make sure we are clear.
Saturday Could Sting in New Jersey
Discussion: I want to touch on yesterday (Thursday) before looking at tomorrow. As someone who spent almost 40 years of my life growing up in the Manahawkin area, I can only remember a few times where that much water fell out of the sky in only a few hours of thunderstorm training. One of them is September of 2006 which dropped 10 inches+ in 3 hours and flooded out my house completely. Anyway, yesterday featured a frontal boundary that was sinking from N to S through NJ.
Unsettled and Mixed
Discussion: Many NJ locations broke 90, if not are in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies are hazy from the upstream wildfires and that should peak in-intensity tonight (Thursday) into tomorrow (Friday). The same type of linear segment of downpours/thunderstorms that happened yesterday in NNJ/CNJ (Wednesday) can happen this evening for CNJ into SNJ. Just like yesterday, the linear segment can form and extinguish in less than a 2-hour window as it generally moves N to S.
More Heat Humidity and Storms
Discussion: A ridge will set up over the N Plains/N/S Dakota area this week. This will position upper flow over the Great Lakes and towards NJ and much of the N Mid-Atlantic US/New England. This pattern should stay locked until a weak trough tries to backfill into the E US Saturday night into Sunday. To me that means a cold front/stormfront later this week/weekend.
Storms Around into Saturday. Sunday Gorgeous
Discussion: The upper levels are indicating changes in the future pattern. While the overall pattern keeps the jet stream N of NJ (inducing ridges), I am seeing a few periods where the jet stream wants to dip to near or just S of NJ (baby troughs). We’re going to see one of those this Saturday into Sunday and then another at the end of next week. We’ll have to endure a hot buildup next week between those two periods of transient relief.
Another Damaging Storm Period Detected
Discussion: The weak low that was over the Mid-Atlantic US and contributed heavily to yesterday’s flash flooding/heavy consistent rainfall, is now offshore just S of Cape Cod. This is now producing northerly flow behind it (to the W of it over NJ) which should last into Thursday morning. While it knocked the temps down, the humidity is still high due to higher dew point temperatures remaining across the region.
Super Hot and Stormy
Discussion: Temperatures exceeded 100 today (Thursday) in many locations. I doubt many NJ spots will dip below the 75-80 range overnight tonight (Thursday night). Isolated thunderstorms can pop up at any time but so far quiet. The death ridge/ring of fire storm pattern will start to break down tonight through this weekend.
Heat Wave Begins
Discussion: When the sun sets like that, you know it will be hot the next day. And that’s what I expect some of the sunsets to look like this week. Between now and this weekend, the upper jet is going to raise far N of NJ, creating a ridge for the E US. The ridge should start out today over Tennessee and make it over the OBX area by Sunday (very slow-moving W to E). As the upper jet rises (ridge builds), it vacuums northward hot and humid Gulf air mass from the S.
Unsettled. Heat Wave on the Way
Discussion: The upper-level zonal flow pattern this weekend is going to evolve into what we call a summer death ridge for next week. This means the upper jet will buckle northwards well to the N of NJ and leave NJ under the influence of a hot and humid ridge. But first we have a rather unsettled weekend to get through. Tonight (Friday night) and Saturday represent the most unsettled look…meaning best chances for rain and thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms Developing
Discussion: We’ll start this week off in article mode since there is potentially damaging weather on the way. First, we have a series of weak low pressure tracking to our immediate NW (likely across NWPA from the Ohio River Valley area into the NE US/SE Canada. A warm front is attached to this low and that’s what’s currently approaching NJ from the S. The best thunderstorm dynamics (wind-producing physics) will exist right along and to the S of the warm front.
Weekend Outlook – Solid Improvement
Discussion: The upper levels continue to indicate a zonal flow across the US this weekend into next week. This translates to more of a W/NW to W/SW wind direction at the surface which you’ll see in the days broken down below. Heights look to lean slightly negative which will allow some rain chances to enter the picture next week after this immediate drier weekend. Many have been asking how a Super El Nino affects NJ weather.
Another Buildup and Reset
Discussion: The upper levels suggest a zonal flow this week with height anomalies leaning slightly negative for NJ. At the surface this should produce another beautiful day (like Monday – today) for Tuesday but then unsettled humidity Wed-Fri. Wednesday seems like the step-up day and then full-fledged heat and humidity for Thursday. From Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a low will track across SE Canada.
Cold Front to Knock Down Humidity
Discussion: The current tropical air mass (beneath the E US ridge) will give us one more hot and humid day today (Friday). We’ll mostly be in a warm sector flow ahead of a cold front which will make the heat and humidity sting a little more than even yesterday. A cold front, attached to a low tracking across Canada, will push through NJ between this evening and overnight hours.
Time for Some Changes
Discussion: This article will begin with a rant. The last thunderstorm outbreak (Saturday-Sunday) really bothered me, specifically the disconnect between the professional forecasting base and public consumers of weather forecasting. I absolutely hate that Severe Thunderstorms (for wind) are determined by a single (58mph) wind metric. A binary value is a bad way to represent IMO.
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