Is this you? As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.
Claim your profile
Articles by Jonathan Kearns
Tariff Turmoil
A topic front of mind for every investor at the moment is the potential impact of tariffs on the global economy. The Trump administration in the US has imposed tariffs on specific countries including Canada, Mexico and China, tariffs on specific industries including cars, steel and aluminium, culminating in the announcement of 'reciprocal tariffs' on goods imports from nearly every country in the world, which have since been delayed.
Economic implications for Australia out of the US election
The US Presidential election will be determined by seven swing states. Polls have the outcome of a coin toss in each of those. Betting markets, however, are pointing to a Trump victory in five of the seven states. But betting markets have apparently been swayed by some large bets. Polls were not great predictors in the 2016 and 2020 elections, and so pollsters have adjusted their methodologies. No doubt there will be a reckoning for either polls or betting markets, or both, after the election.
Rebates Slow Inflation But Don't Expect Rate Cuts
CPI inflation was just 0.2% in the September quarter, bringing the annual rate down to 2.8%. But don’t expect the RBA to celebrate inflation inside its target range with a big “mission accomplished” banner. Electricity prices fell 17% in the September quarter but would have risen 0.7% without Federal and state government rebates. In other words, the electricity rebates subtracted about 0.4 percentage points from inflation in the quarter.
Inflation Surprises, But Markets Surprise More
You really need to squint to see the slowing in inflation data released on Wednesday. CPI inflation for the June quarter was 1.0%, the same as the previous quarter, with the year-ended rate ticking up to 3.8%. The trimmed mean rate of inflation came in at 0.8% in the quarter, a step down from 1% in the previous quarter, with the annual rate slowing to 3.9%.
All Quiet On The Western Front: The End of the TFF
From Challenger chief economist Dr Jonathan Kearns The RBA’s pandemic era Term Funding Facility (TFF) comes to an end this week with the final date for repayment of these cheap loans. The TFF provided banks with 3-year funding from the RBA, initially at 0.25% but with later drawdowns at 0.1%, in order to reduce the cost, and increase the availability, of loans for households and businesses.
GDP. The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
What is the true health of the Australian economy? Challenger Chief Economist Dr Jonathan Kearns suggests it may be uglier than the figures released yesterday suggest. The (moderately) good news in data released on Wednesday was that the economy at least grew by 1.1% over the year, but that growth was just 0.1% in the March quarter. However, the true health of the economy is even more sombre than those headline figures suggest.
Why didn’t housing arrears increase in the pandemic?
Disclaimer: The information in this article is current when sent. The author's views are their own and do not represent the views of any company within the Challenger group. These views do not take into account anyone's objectives, financial situation or needs. It is important to consider these matters before making any investment decision.
Will the RBA wait until inflation is less than 3% to start cutting?
The RBA’s forecasts released last Tuesday have inflation falling sharply to 3.3% by mid this year but more slowly after that and not returning to the 2-3% target until the second half of 2025. Governor Bullock was asked at her press conference whether inflation would need to be in the target before the RBA would cut.
Everything you need to know about today's RBA meeting
The information in this article is current when sent. The author's views are their own and do not represent the views of any company within the Challenger group. These views do not take into account anyone's objectives, financial situation or needs. It is important to consider these matters before making any investment decision.
Is Australian monetary policy tight enough?
But there is key evidence that monetary policy has not been sufficiently tight. Comparing the cash rate to the policy setting suggested by various ‘rules’ that summarise past central bank practice and the stance of policy in other countries suggests the RBA policy setting has been too easy. Maybe we are witnessing an immaculate disinflation. But assessing the level of the cash rate suggests there are significant risks to the disinflation path and interest rate outlook.
Do markets now expect the stage 3 tax cuts to be inflationary?
Relative to the legislated stage 3 tax cuts, the changes increase the income of low and middle income tax payers (and reduces the incomes of high income households) who have higher propensities to consume and so this change would be expected to increase consumption and inflation. The question is how significant this is?
How do recessions really affect asset returns?
Recessions come and go but they can have significant effects on people’s current livelihood because of unemployment and future livelihood through the impact on asset prices, and wealth. Given the very sharp increases in interest rates over the past two years and the largest inflation shock in decades, many analysts have been expecting recessions around the world. However, the resilience of output, and in particular labour markets, has increased the chance for soft landings.
How likely is a recession?
17 October 2023 By Jonathan Kearns 1 minute read Facebook X LinkedIn Copy link Financial markets and, increasingly, many analysts think we can achieve a soft landing. But surveys of economists still put the odds of a US recession at just over 50 per cent. Former RBA governor Philip Lowe suggested the Australian economy could remain “on an even keel … but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one”. But an even keel on a narrow path sounds like we’ve already run aground.
What’s driving inflation and what does it mean for monetary policy?
The idea that the surge in inflation was caused by rising profits has resurfaced with the appointment of a new RBA Governor, Michele Bullock. Sally McManus of the ACTU and Richard Dennis of the Australia Institute have suggested that high interest rates are ineffective in suppressing high inflation. To be clear, high inflation is a problem. Anyone who doubts its corrosive impact on economic activity needs to remember that the 1970s was not just about disco.
Saving organs, saving lives: Building the world’s first organ regeneration lab
By John Gregory and Jonathan Kearns “We had one chance to get it right,” says Christopher Rizzo, Executive Director of Redevelopment, University Health Network, “Building two mini-operating rooms in a live suite of twenty sterile ORs. We’re talking about a city of individuals that are having different surgeries in sixteen to eighteen ORs at any one time.” “The first day we did our site review was the day that COVID hit,” says Keith Button, Senior Architectural Designer at Kearns Mancini...
Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded
Supporting Information Filename Description jmcb12996-sup-0001-Appendix.pdf499.6 KB Figure IA.1: Fed Monetary Policy Surprises. Figure IA.2: ECB Monetary Policy Surprises. Figure IA.3: BoJ Monetary Policy Surprises. Figure IA.4: BoE Monetary Policy Surprises. Figure IA.5: Global Spillover Map from BoJ for 10-Year Bond Yields. Figure IA.6: Global spillover map from BoE for 10-Year Bond Yields. Figure IA.7: ECB Monetary Policy Surprises and Euro Area Countries' Bond Yield Response.
PUTTING PROCESS ENGINEERING INTO ACTION
To Issue 133 Citation: Kearns J, Huang K, “Putting Process Engineering into Action”. ONdrugDelivery, Issue 133 (May 2022), pp 8–12. Jonathan Kearns and Kevin Huang consider how engineering competencies are being driven to the next level by leveraging process engineering and how this can transform drug-device projects.
Injectable Drug Delivery: Formulations & Devices133
Issue No #133 May 2022 May 12th, 2022 Inside the magazine Top This website uses functional cookies (but not advertising cookies). View our Privacy Policy.
How Risky Is Australian Household Debt?
Contributed Article Jonathan Kearns, Mike Major, David Norman, Corresponding Author normand@rba.gov.au orcid.org/0000-0002-3046-7408 Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney 2000; email: <normand@rba.gov.au>.
Non-technical summary for ‘How Risky is Australian Household Debt?’ | RDP 2020-05: How Risky is Australian Household Debt?
Jonathan Kearns, Mike Major and David Norman August 2020 Download the Non-technical summary 419KB It is often observed that the level of household debt (relative to income) is high in Australia compared with other countries and its own history. Many commentators argue that it creates a major vulnerability for the country's economy.
Abstract for RDP 2020-05: How Risky is Australian Household Debt?
August 2020 View the Paper in full View the Paper by sections Download the Paper 3,815KB Non-technical summary Download the Non-technical summary 418KB Supplementary information consumption, debt, financial markets, financial stability, households, households, income and wealth, interest rates, modelling, money Abstract Household indebtedness has increased substantially over several decades and across a range of countries.
Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded
BIS Working Papers | No 757 | 20 November 2018 by Jonathan Kearns, Andreas Schrimpf and Dora Xia Summary Focus We study the strength and characteristics of interest rate spillovers from seven advanced economy central banks to 47 advanced and emerging market economies. Our main focus is on the channels through which spillovers occur and why some countries respond more than others to changes in monetary policy in advanced economies.
Does the financial channel of exchange rates offset the trade channel?
While the trade channel indicates that an exchange rate depreciation will stimulate domestic economic activity, the financial channel can have the opposite effect. When banks and non-banks have foreign currency liabilities, an exchange rate depreciation has valuation effects that can lead to a tightening in domestic financial conditions.
Oil and debt
The total debt of the oil and gas sector globally stands at roughly $2.5 trillion, two and a half times what it was at the end of 2006. The recent fall in the oil price represents a significant decline in the value of assets backing this debt, introducing a new element to price developments. In common with other episodes of retrenchment induced by rapid declines in asset values, greater leverage may have amplified the dynamics of the oil price decline.
Show More
loading
Actions
Is this you?
As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.Get in touch with Jonathan
Contact Jonathan, search articles and posts on X, monitor coverage, and track replies from one place.
Learn more about Muck Rack