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Articles by Katie Klingensmith
Personal Inflation Rates: Why Inflation Hits Households Differently
Market-based expectations derived from 5y U.S. Treasury breakeven yields; economist forecasts from third quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia All this adds up to what many people call a K-shaped economy (a term first coined during the COVID-19 pandemic) – some households thrive (the upper arm of the “K”) while others struggle (the lower arm of the “K”), with the gap continuing to widen over time.
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大型IPOの誕生に沸いた時期を経て、注目企業の新規上場の波はまだ始まったばかりだ。その波に伴い、関心は高まり、多くのヘッドラインがメディアを賑わせている。読者の中には「自分も参入すべきだろうか」と自問している人もいるかもしれない。 アンソロピック（Anthropic）やOpenAI、Canva（キャンバ）といった企業、そしてそれらがもたらすイノベーションが刺激的であることは間違いない。しかしだからといって、ポートフォリオを劇的に変更したり、これらを中心にポートフォリオを構築したりすることが合理的だとは限らない。IPOブームの際、投資家が最も陥りやすい過ちの一つは、取り残されることへの恐怖（FOMO）に屈し、より広範なポートフォリオの一部として検討するのではなく、話題の個別銘柄を追いかけてしまうことだ。 独自の顔ぶれで復活したIPO市場 IPOのサイクルには、それぞれを象徴する企業が存在する。ドットコム時代、投資家はインターネットのスタートアップ企業に殺到した。2010年代には、ウーバー（Uber）やリフト（Lyft）、スナップ（Snap）といった企業が世間の関心を集めた。...
The Biggest Lesson Of IPO Summer: Patience Still Pays
Katie Klingensmith, Chief Investment Strategist, Edelman Financial Engines. After a summer defined by blockbuster debuts, the wave of high-profile companies coming to market is just beginning. With that wave comes increased interest and plenty of headlines.
Forbes JAPAN 公式サイト（フォーブス ジャパン）
関税がかつてほど大々的に報道されなくなったとしても、忘れてはならない。新たな関税措置の発表や交渉は今なお続いているからだ。最近の経験から、それらが極めて現実的かつ即座に影響を及ぼし得ることを我々は知っている。 国際緊急経済権限法（IEEPA）の発動を制限する2月の連邦最高裁判所の判決と、関税を維持するために他の法的手段へと迅速に舵を切ったホワイトハウスの動きは、関税政策がいかに大きく、かつ急速に移り変わり得るかを浮き彫りにしている。 議会内には現在の関税案に反対する声も多いが、共和党からの強い支持は、関税が今後も維持されることを示唆している。さらに、バイデン政権がトランプ前政権時代の関税を継続していることや、民主党が特定の産業における標的型の保護主義を受け入れる姿勢を見せていることも、輸入品への課税が今や政策手段として定着したことを物語っている。 これを踏まえ、関税が家計や投資家に及ぼす広範な影響を理解することが重要となる。関税はどのように機能し、誰を助け、そして何より誰に痛みを与えるのか。 関税は消費税として機能し、そのコストの大部分は米国の家計が負担する...
Un año de los aranceles de Trump, el impuesto silencioso que pagan los consumidores y alerta a los inversores Original
Aunque los aranceles ya no acaparen los titulares, no conviene perderlos de vista: los gobiernos siguen anunciando y negociando nuevas medidas. La experiencia reciente demuestra que pueden tener consecuencias reales e inmediatas.
Tariffs One Year Later: What Investors Should Know
Katie Klingensmith, Chief Investment Strategist, Edelman Financial Engines. Tariffs may no longer be dominating headlines, but they should not be forgotten, as new ones are still being announced and negotiated. We know from recent experience that they can have real and immediate impacts.
Elections and Markets: What Decades of Data Reveal About Investing
Source: Polymarket, through May 28, 2026. Some people may think they can use the “wisdom of the markets” to call the election and position their portfolios accordingly. But history tells a different story, at least when it comes to financial markets. While elections matter, they are rarely what determines long-term investment outcomes. There’s no question that real policy issues are at stake in 2026.
What’s Really Going on with Jobs Right Now? AI, Inflation and the Split-Screen Economy
If it feels like you’re in a real-life production of A Tale of Two Economies, you’re not alone. On one hand, headlines are full of AI-driven layoffs – and some tech leaders have bluntly stated they expect almost all white-color jobs to disappear within the decade. The numbers are hard to ignore; tens of thousands of job cuts at companies like Amazon, Intel and Meta.
2026 Economy Outlook: Strong Markets, Inflation and AI Concerns
Dollar’s value is represented by the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the value of the USD against other major currencies. International stocks are represented by the MSCI All-Country World Index ex-US. January 1, 2026, through June 1, 2026. Sources: Bloomberg, MSCI. Inflation has come down from its peak, but that doesn’t mean prices have returned to prior levels.
Why Energy Independence Doesn’t Stop Rising Gas Prices
Global oil prices surged after the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, jumping from under $70 to over $100 a barrel, and energy costs remain sensitive to developments in the region. Moments like this can feel especially heavy. And beyond the human cost and implications for geopolitics, families are wondering what it means for their everyday budgets – gas, groceries, heating, commuting.
OBBBA, the National Debt and What It Means for Your Money
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Treasury; as of Sept. 30, 2025 And unlike countries that borrow in someone else’s currency, the U.S. issues debt in U.S. dollars. The ability to print our own currency, albeit constrained by the independence of the Federal Reserve, doesn’t give us a free pass to spend with abandon, but it does mean we aren’t susceptible to sudden funding crises the way smaller or emerging economies can be.
Should Investors Worry About a Crisis?
Increasingly, the national debt is making headlines – especially given 2025’s heated debates about taxes, spending and the money it takes to keep the government running. The numbers are almost unfathomable: As of Nov. 12, 2025, the U.S. government owed $38,121,217,149,187.64. (Yes, it’s tracked to the penny!) That’s up from $4.3 trillion in April 1993, a nearly ninefold increase. But before we panic, let’s ask: Is this a problem for investors? Of course, a dollar today isn’t what it was in 1993.
Is the US Dollar Losing Its Crown? Why It Still Reigns Supreme.
Lately, the chatter around “de-dollarization” has gotten louder. From TikTok finance influencers to global think tanks, everyone seems to be asking: Is the U.S. dollar’s reign as “the world’s currency” coming to an end? With America’s rising debt, inflation worries and the rise of alternatives like gold and digital currencies, it’s easy to see why the question is trending. But while the headlines scream uncertainty, the numbers whisper stability.
Is the Market in an AI Bubble? What Investors Should Know.
You’d have to be living under a rock – or shall we say, in a bubble – not to have heard the rumors: Are we in an AI bubble? If you remember the dot-com bubble of the late ’90s-early 2000s or the housing bubble of the mid-2000s, you might be feeling a little déjà vu. So, should you be worried? And more importantly, what should you do about it? To be clear, we’ve never known for sure that we were in a bubble at the time it was happening.
How Tariffs Are Driving Up Grocery Prices - What You Need to Know
Chances are, you’ve gotten used to sticker shock at the grocery checkout. Maybe you’ve even progressed through shock to anger and reached acceptance. But lately, are you feeling that things are getting even more expensive again, even as inflation has supposedly come down? It’s not your imagination. Tariffs are likely adding on to existing inflation pressures on many goods, including some groceries. Tariffs are basically taxes on imported goods.
Key Market Lessons from a Volatile 2025
If 2025 felt like a roller coaster you never asked to ride on, you weren’t imagining it. Markets swung harder than most forecasts predicted, and plenty of bold calls – on rate cuts, earnings and inflation – missed the mark. That’s not unusual, but this year was a master class in humility for anyone trying to outwit the market. The good news? Even with all the twists, diversified investors ended up in a solid spot.
Inflation, Jobs and Interest Rate Uncertainty
Going into 2026, the Federal Reserve is in a tough spot. After several years, inflation’s still hanging around, and now employment opportunities are shrinking. Unfortunately, “you had one job” doesn’t apply to the Fed: They’re supposed to keep prices stable and keep people working.
Why Timing Is Impossible and What Really Matters
If you’ve been feeling uneasy about the economy lately, you’re in good company. Whether it’s tariffs, inflation or the national debt, there’s a lot going on that will be felt in the economy somehow. So as we go into 2026, many people are wondering: “Is a recession coming?” And the answer is: Almost certainly. Oh, you wanted to know when there will be a recession? That’s impossible to answer. Recession talk usually has an ominous note of winter-is-coming impending darkness.
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ケイティ・クリンゲンスミス、エデルマン・フィナンシャル・エンジンズ チーフ投資ストラテジスト。 家族や友人、同僚との米国経済に関する会話で「インフレ」という言葉を耳にしないことはほぼ不可能だ。インフレは家計の支出、貯蓄額、投資方法に影響を与える。しかし、絶え間なく変化するヘッドラインの流れは、家計が状況を把握したり、何に基づいて行動すべきかを判断したりすることを難しくしている。 インフレ率は前年同期比で約2.9%となっており、消費者物価が平均してその割合で上昇していることを意味する。これにより、1ドルの購買力が低下し、時間の経過とともに商品やサービスが徐々に高価になっている。2022年のピーク時からは低下したものの、依然として連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）の長期目標である2%を上回っており、政策論争と家計予算の両方に影響を与え続けている。物価はある分野では上昇し、別の分野では緩和しており、政策立案者は次の一手を検討している。 多くの人にとって、より個人的な疑問は次のようなものだ：これらの数字は私の経済生活にとって何を意味するのか？ 基本を理解する...
How To Read Inflation Numbers To Inform Better Financial Decisions
Katie Klingensmith, Chief Investment Strategist, Edelman Financial Engines. getty It’s nearly impossible to have a conversation with family, friends or co-workers about the U.S. economy without hearing the word “inflation.” Inflation shapes what households pay, how much they save and how they invest. Yet the constant stream of changing headlines can make it difficult for households to keep perspective or know what to act on.
Investing in Exponential Technologies: How Innovation Shapes Stronger Portfolios
By: Katie Klingensmith, Chief Investment Strategist The global economy has a strong track record of delivering continuous improvements in many aspects of our daily lives. Televisions get cheaper and better every year, cars get safer and more fuel efficient, smartphones get more powerful and better cameras.
Here's How To Prepare
Katie Klingensmith, Chief Investment Strategist, Edelman Financial Engines. You've seen the headlines. Social Security is "running out," benefits are "at risk," and retirement as we know it is changing. I hear from investors every day who feel anxious-not just about markets, but about whether they can count on Social Security at all.
Understanding Inflation: What Rising Prices Really Mean
By: Katie Klingensmith There’s a lot of talk about inflation these days. At first glance, it seems simple – prices are going up. But inflation is more nuanced than that and understanding the different ways it is measured can help you make sense of the headlines and, more importantly, how it affects your own spending. One of the most common terms you’ll hear is CPI, or the Consumer Price Index.
Navigating Market Impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill
By: Katie Klingensmith On July 4, President Trump signed into law a sweeping new tax and spending bill known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. While we at Edelman Financial Engines are focused on the new elements of the tax code, there are also important economic and investment implications. Our key takeaway: This law introduces spending, regulatory and tax changes touching wide swaths of the economy, with implications that will take time to unfold.
2025 Midyear Market Outlook – Strategies to Navigate Volatility | Edelman Financial Engines
By: Katie Klingensmith, Chief Investment Strategist The economy enters this year’s second half facing challenges – tariffs, a rising deficit, potentially higher inflation – just to name a few. Could these challenges mean rough sledding for the markets at times? Yes. And, if volatility strikes, expect another round of anxiety-inducing media headlines. Don’t get caught up in that.
Rethinking the 60/40 Portfolio: The Role of Private Investments
By Katie Klingensmith, Chief Investment Strategist For decades, the 60/40 portfolio – 60% stocks and 40% bonds – has been the paragon for investment allocation. However, in today's evolving financial landscape, new asset classes are finding their way into these industry standards, with private investments – those assets that are not listed or traded on a public exchange – taking their place. Some even suggest allocating as much as 20%, leaving stocks at 50% and bonds at 30%.
Will Social Security Be There When You Retire?
By Katie Klingensmith, Chief Investment Strategist I recently had the pleasure of hosting a conversation with my colleague and Director of Financial Planning Isabel Barrow and Mike Townsend, Schwab’s Washington-based political analyst. We had the chance to really dig into the future of Social Security – and I want to share some worthwhile takeaways.
Fixed-income opportunities can be found at both ends of the curve
The current moment is exciting for fixed-income investors as opportunities reveal themselves at both ends of the duration curve, says Katie Klingensmith, vice-president, fixed income with Brandywine Global Investment Management. Klingensmith said economic uncertainty suggests good reason for exposure to the long end of the yield curve. But current trends also make the short end look attractive. “We no longer think the primary opportunities are going to come from the curve.
Transcript: Time to lock in that bond duration
Katie Klingensmith Welcome to Soundbites, weekly insights on market trends and investment strategies, brought to you by Investment Executive and powered by Canada Life. For today’s Soundbites, we’re talking about interest rates and Fed policy with Katie Klingensmith, senior vice president and investment specialist with Brandywine Global Investment Management. We talked about the current economic climate, bond yields. And we started by asking what explains the resilience of U.S. growth.
Time to lock in that bond duration
The economic environment and a reset in growth expectations have created favourable conditions for bond investors, says Katie Klingensmith, senior vice-president, investment specialist with Brandywine Global Investment Management. She said bond rates are historically high, and a potential regime change makes them even more attractive.
Bond market seeing ‘pockets of opportunity’ at 2023’s midpoint
Katie Klingensmith (Runtime: 5:00. Read the audio transcript.) ** Even if the first half of 2023 hasn’t been stellar for bonds, steady returns and growing pockets of opportunity suggest the full year will be a reasonably good one for bond investors, says Katie Klingensmith, senior vice-president, investment specialist with Brandywine Global Investment Management. “We would still say that this is a year for being a bond investor,” she said.
Higher commodity prices challenge inflation and growth
Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus together account for 11 per cent of global oil and 17 per cent of global natural gas, more than 10 per cent of global barley and wheat, and 20 per cent of global potash. They also are important sources of numerous metals, mining, and precious stones. The disruption to global—and especially European—supply chains is already being felt.
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