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Articles by Kimble Charting
Gold / U.S. Dollar Ratio Repeating Historical Breakout Pattern?
Gold prices continue to move swiftly higher as gold nears $3000/ounce. Feels like a big rally already. But gold may be in the early innings of a longer-term run… especially if today’s chart pattern proves to be as bullish as it looks. Notice that the ratio traded sideways for 15 years before posting a historical break out in the early 2000’s… and rallying for years. Then gold repeated that 15 year sideways trading pattern before attempting to break out again more recently. History in the making?
Did Nasdaq Out-Performance Double Top At Year 2000 Peak?
In February 2021, the Nasdaq Composite stock index began to underperform the S&P 500… and this has continued for the past 45 months. Today, we highlight the long-term chart of this Nasdaq to S&P 500 ratio price performance, along with key observations and concerns. Looking at the chart below, we can see that the long-term trend for this ratio remains up. That said, the past 45 months of underperformance is concerning.
US Dollar Rally Near Critical Inflection Point!
In a world where the US Dollar still makes the world go round, it’s vitally important that investors pay attention to potential pivot points for the buck. There’s a reason why we call it King Dollar! When it is weakening, we often see a tailwind for gold and other commodities and sometimes stocks and bonds. And when strong, the opposite. Lately we have seen a stronger Dollar that’s rising with interest rates (and that’s hurt bonds). BUT that could be coming to a halt.
Gold Bugs Index Testing Long-Term Breakout Level!
The precious metals rally appears to have reached an important juncture. Yesterday I wrote about Silver and a potential inflection point. Today, we turn to the gold miners and the all-important Gold Bugs Index (HUI). Above is a “monthly” chart of HUI. Here we can see that the Gold Bugs Index has reached an important confluence of resistance. The rally has brought the Gold Bugs back to falling trend line resistance, lateral resistance, as well as the underside of the original rally trend line.
Copper Facing Historic Price Decline If Support Fails!
Copper prices have continued to fall and this decline seems to be in alignment with potentials talks of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. When Doc Copper turns south, it’s worth taking note. Earlier this summer, we wrote the bearish price reversal in copper and what the implications for interest rates might be. You can read that article HERE. Today we provide an updated “monthly” chart to once again highlight this massive bearish reversal pattern.
Is the Japanese Yen Nearing an Historic Bottom?
The Japanese Yen currency has been in a strong selloff for the past 12+ years. Today, we ask: Could the Yen finally be bottoming? As you can see on the long-term “monthly” chart of the Japanese Yen below, the currency needs some bulls. The latest selloff has the Yen testing its 30-year lows. However, the current formation is a bullish falling wedge that gains support from a bullish rising RSI divergence.
Will Tech Stocks Turn Bearish Here?
Technology stocks have continue to lead the broader market higher in 2024, posting new high after new high. At the same time, this is the very reason we watch the Nasdaq related indices very closely with each pause in the market. When leadership is strong, the market tends to remain strong. BUT, when leadership starts to falter, the chances of a stock market correction go up. So today we visit one of my favorite tech index ETFs (and broad market indicators), the Equal Weight Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQEW).
Gold Miners (GDX) Facing 13-Year Resistance!!!
Gold prices have moved steadily higher and this has provided a strong tailwind to gold mining stocks. Today, we’ll highlight a very bullish setup in this sector by looking at the Gold Miners ETF (GDX). The chart below is a long-term “monthly” chart that highlights a massive triangle pattern that has developed for GDX. And, as you can see, GDX has rallied up to the top of the triangle. This is major resistance and needs to be on every GDX bulls radar.
Silver Bull Market Starting? Watch This Rare Bullish Signal!
When we discuss bull markets and areas of leadership, we usually point to out-performance. We’ve been writing a lot about precious metals lately, and today we look at Silver. Two things we love to see: Silver out-performing Gold (sign of risk-on), and precious metals out-performing the stock market (leadership and prospect of a Silver bull market starting). Today’s long-term “monthly” chart looks at the performance ratio of Silver to the S&P 500 Index.
U.S. Dollar Peaking… As Momentum Indicator Reaches Historic High!
The U.S. Dollar is a key variable in all aspects of the marketplace. The strength of the dollar factors into the price we pay for food, gas, and everyday groceries. It also affects the equity and bond markets as investors factor in the risks of a dollar that is too weak or too strong versus the current economic climate. “The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts.” – Joe Friday So today we look at a chart of the U.S. Dollar and highlight why active investors should be watching the greenback right now.
Will Gold’s 12-Year Cycle Send It Much Higher?
Gold spent the better part of the past 12 years trading in a broad sideways pattern. This type of price action tends to drive away speculators (and even some convicted bulls). It also meant gold wasn’t getting many “sexy” headlines as investors weren’t overly bullish. Until now. After a major breakout and move higher, Gold is finally getting some attention. And if today’s cycle pattern proves true, there may be a lot more attention (and investors) in the future for Gold.
Gold / US Dollar Attempting Historic Bullish Breakout, Says Joe Friday!!!
I have spent a lot of time discussing the bullish implications of Gold price patterns and the recent Gold breakout attempt. So why not offer up yet another example of why Gold (and precious metals partner, Silver) are brimming with bullish possibilities. For reference, here are a couple of recent articles: “Silver Breakout Adds to Massively Bullish Price Pattern!” and “Is the Gold Miners ETF Ready To Blast Off Higher?“.
Silver Breakout Adds To Massively Bullish Price Pattern!
I like what I am seeing of late in the precious metals space. Gold has broken out to new highs… and now silver is beginning to show strength. Today we take a look at a long-term “quarterly” chart of Silver, as it seems that something BIG might be brewing. As you can see, Silver took 31 years to form a very large “cup” pattern, and the last 11 years forming what appears to be a “handle”. If so, this would be a massively bullish “cup with handle” price pattern.
Is the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Ready To Blast Off Higher?
Just as everyone is fawning over Bitcoin and stocks at all-time highs, Gold has quietly made all-time highs. And, just as we wrote earlier this week, that may be a good thing for Gold bulls. Today we turn our attention to the gold miners etf (GDX) and look at a “monthly” chart. As you can see, the gold miners have been stuck inside a narrowing pattern for the past couple of years. With gold making new all-time highs, it may be a matter of time before the gold miners stocks and etf (GDX) breakout.
Natural Gas Crashes Into Historic 25-Year Price Support, Says Joe Friday!
It’s been a rough go for Natural Gas prices. Even with elevated inflation numbers, Natural Gas is still in crash mode. “The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts.” – Joe Friday Today’s Natural Gas chart highlights the crash in Natural Gas prices. Natty has fallen nearly 50 percent in just 25 days!! That is the 2nd largest 25-day decline in Natural Gas history. In my humble opinion, this is a critically important support test following a rare decline. Will Natural Gas bulls show up here?
Tech Stocks Reach Important Price Resistance Level, Says Joe Friday!
The end of year rally has trickled over into 2024 and it has been lead by tech stocks. But has the rally gotten long in the tooth? “The facts, Ma’am. Just the Facts.” – Joe Friday Today’s “weekly” chart of the Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight Fund (QQEW) highlights an important obstacle for tech stocks: the 2021 highs sit overhead as price resistance. And QQEW is hitting this level as its RSI indicator is at peak levels. Could this bring a pullback? Or will be see a breakout?
Bitcoin U-Turn? Reversal From Important Fibonacci Level Sends Bearish Signal
Bitcoin chatter is rising again. With new ETFs coming to market, crypto investors are getting very bullish. Is this a good thing? Or is too much bullishness about to send Bitcoin spiraling? Today we look at a long-term “weekly” chart with Fibonacci levels to show why bears may be circling Bitcoin right now. Last week, Bitcoin created a bearish reversal at its 61% Fibonacci retracement level.
Is Copper About To Send A Macro Economic Message To Investors?
After peaking in 2021, copper prices declined sharply before bouncing around for a few years. That “bouncing” ended up following the twists and turns of Fibonacci rules. And we can see this in today’s “weekly” chart of Copper. Yes, Doc Copper seems to be under the influence of Fibonacci. The initial decline hit the 61% Fib before bouncing to the 23% Fib. After a touch of the 38% Fib, Copper fell to the 50% Fib… before bouncing again. All of this price action ended up forming a large pennant pattern.
Important Bond ETFs Trading At Critical Resistance!
When interest rates fall, bond prices rise. And while it has been some time since we’ve been able to say interest rates are dropping, the past few months have done just that. The pullback in interest rates is coinciding with investors optimism that the Federal Reserve is done raising rates and inflation is subdued. Taken together, this has had a very positive effect on bond prices over the past few months.
Market Leader Nvidia (NVDA) Struggling At Key Fibonacci Resistance!
Technology stocks have lead the market higher for nearly 2 decades. Semiconductors have been a big part of that leadership. And the leader of all leaders, Nvidia (NVDA), has helped the Nasdaq soar over the past year. But its leadership has come into question of late… is Nvidia’s stock price stalling out at a key price level? Today we look at a “weekly” chart of NVDA and highlight a critically important resistance level.
Silver Bullish Head & Shoulders Near Breakout Level!
Precious metals prices have quietly crept higher in recent weeks. And if the rally keeps going, Silver could trigger a very bullish buy signal. Today, we look at a long-term “monthly” chart of Silver. And, as you can see, Silver has formed a gigantic pennant pattern over the past 20 years. And within that pennant pattern, price has also formed an inverse head & shoulders pattern.
Utilities Breaking Down: Omen For Stock Market and Economy?
In early September, we warned readers that Utilities were breaking down and that this would have an adverse effect on the stock market. Since then, the breakdown has become more pronounced. And stocks have been under pressure. Today we provide an updated “monthly” chart of the Dow Jones Utilities Index, highlighting the clear breakdown below its uptrend line and 40-month moving average.
Is 11-Year Cycle Signaling Gold and Silver Miners Rally?
The price of gold is trading just off its all-time highs while the price of silver is lagging. Together, they haven’t quite provided mining equities the boost they need to out-perform the broad market. But an 11-year cycle may be saying that gold and silver mining stocks are ready to rise again. Today, we take a look at the performance of the Gold and Silver Miners Index (XAU) versus the S&P 500 Index by charting its performance ratio since 1990.
Cap Weight vs Equal Weight Divergence, Sending Sell Signal Warning Signal?
We often watch the performance of cap weighted indices versus the equal weight counterpart. Why? Because divergences in performance often signal market turns. Today is no different as we display the performances of the S&P 500 cap weight index versus the S&P 500 equal weight index. And, as you can see, there is a wide divergence brewing. The past 2 times that the cap weighted index was performing much stronger than the equal weighted index, stocks were near a short-term high.
Are Utilities Sending Ominous Message To Broader Market?
It’s been a rough go around for stocks and investors. But will it get worse before it gets better? Let’s turn to Joe Friday for “The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts.” Today’s chart features a “monthly” view of the Dow Jones Utilities Index. And, as you can see, the chart is very straightforward and telling. For the first time in 15 years, the Dow Jones Utilities Index $DJU has broken below its 40-month moving average. The past two times it did this were also in August.
China’s Shanghai Composite Stock Index Nearing “Decision Time”!
China has the world’s largest population and second largest economy, so it’s always wise to keep an eye on the Chinese economy and stock market. Today we look at the latter, eyeing up a 10-year indecision pennant pattern on the Shanghai Composite Index. As you can see, the lower highs (red arrows) and higher lows (green arrows) have guided this pennant pattern into an ever-narrowing squeeze. There is not much room left here, so we should expect a decision soon.
Are Tech Stocks About To Falter? Or Ready To Lead Again?
The main bank of stock market leadership has come from the technology sector. Let’s face it, tech stocks have been market leaders for years and a core driver of our economy. BUT the post-COVID Nasdaq performance versus the S&P 500 has not been great. The bright side of this? The Nasdaq is attempting to reassert its leadership in the marketplace. The downside?
US Dollar Repeating 2000 Topping Pattern Currently?
Recent weakness in the US Dollar has helped to propel commodities such as Gold and Silver higher. Today’s analysis showing a potential repeating pattern that could mean significantly more weakness for King Dollar… but only if triggered. Below is a “weekly” chart of the US Dollar Index dating back 25 years. As you can see, the meltdown in the early 2000’s started with a key Fibonacci patterned decline… one that looks awfully familiar to the recent price action for the buck.
Gold Miners ETF Breaking Out of Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern!
The precious metals complex may be ending a 2 month pullback / consolidation pattern. And perhaps in grand fashion! With Gold and Silver prices bouncing off key price support, we are seeing similar action in the Gold Mining stocks. Today, we look at a “weekly” chart of the Sprott Gold MinersETF (SGDM) to highlight the potential of the current precious metals rally. As you can see, SGDM formed a bullish falling wedge pattern into important horizontal price support.
Nasdaq Composite Ratio Reaches Counter-Trend Resistance Area!
The dot com crash was brutal. But even in the demise of several tech stocks, investors knew that technology was our future. And for the past 20 years technology stocks have been outperforming the broader market and leading the major stock market indices higher. This comes into focus today, with a long-term “monthly” chart depicting the price ratio of the Nasdaq Composite to the S&P 500 Index. Here we can see that the Nasdaq has outperformed over the past 20 years.
Treasury Bonds ETF (TLT) Trading At Key Decision Point!
The popular treasury bonds etf (TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months. This all comes after a precipitous 2-year decline from 2020 into 2022. Above you will find today’s long-term “monthly” price chart of the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). As you can see, TLT has been in a narrowing pennant pattern for the past 9-months, frustrating both bulls and bears.
Gold Bulls Are Hoping 3rd Time Is The Charm!
The precious metals sector has remained elevated, yet volatile, over the past two years. Call it consolidation, but in my humble opinion, something has got to give. Inflation, war, politics… gold bulls have the catalysts and tailwinds to see higher prices. Today, we look at a long-term “monthly” chart of gold. As you can see, gold is testing breakout resistance for the third time over the past two years (see red arrows).
This Indicator Suggests Gold To Outperform Stocks For Years
It’s been a decade since Gold outperformed the stock market on a steady basis. 2018-2019 was strong, but precious metals couldn’t keep the momentum going. Today’s chart looks at Gold’s relative performance based on its ratio to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. As you can see, Gold has been in a bit of a rut since peaking over a decade ago. HOWEVER, Gold’s outperformance this year has it breaking out above downtrend resistance within a triangle pattern.
Gold Bulls Dancing As Prices Close At Monthly / Quarterly Highs!
Gold prices remain elevated as inflation, political differences, and the prospect of international war radiate on the horizon. This prospect of uncertainty tends to be where gold finds buyers at higher prices. Today, we revisit a pattern that we have highlighted several times over the past 5 years: The cup with handle. Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of gold highlighting the pattern. Note that just last month, gold closed at monthly and quarterly all-time highs at (1).
Silver Creates Largest Bullish Quarterly Candlestick In Decades; Breakout Next?
Precious metals bulls rose sharply last summer into the heart of inflation headlines and Ukraine war news. Since that time, both gold and silver have moderated but remained elevated in a consolidation pattern. But recent price action in Silver could be a bullish signal for metals bulls. Today we look at a “quarterly” chart of Silver. As you can see, Silver has been in a long-term narrowing pattern, formed by a two large quarterly bullish candlesticks and one bearish candlestick.
The Financial Sector Is Teetering On Historic Technical Support!
The financial sector is the focal point of the global economy. So it’s no wonder that investors pay close attention to its performance within the stock market. And this is especially true when recession fears rise due to lackluster economic growth. Kinda sounds like today’s markets, eh? “The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts” Is there trouble ahead for the economy? And for the stock market? Well, today’s “monthly” chart of the Financial Sector ETF (XLF) is at a make-or-break triple price support level.
Broad Stock Market Index Testing Extremely Important Breakout Level!
The Value Line Geometric Index is one of the broadest stock market indices. So when its price records a notable reversal, breakout, or breakdown, investors should listen. Today we take a closer look at the “weekly” chart of the Value Line Geometric Index that comes from Marketsmith.com and highlights why investors should be paying attention. Like other stock market indices, the Value Line Geometric Index declined sharply from its 2021 high.
Are Consumer Stocks Sending Chills To Broader Market?
For nearly 15 years, consumer stocks moved higher in an orderly trend. But more recently, that trend has changed from bullish to uncertain. And we can see this in today’s ratio chart. Above is a ratio chart of the Consumer Discretionary ETF to Consumer Staples ETF. Inflation has hurt discretionary spending… and it shows up in a big way on this chart. For the first time in 15-years, the discretionary/staples ratio has broken its up-trend and is testing the underside of its rising trend channel.
Are Silver Prices About To Rocket Higher? Hi Yo Silver Time?
Silver prices have been moving higher for several months now and appear poised to test major breakout resistance. Could the reward for Silver bulls be a massive breakout higher? This is possible when one considers the mother of all bull flag patterns that has formed over the past 11-years. See the “monthly” chart below. As you can see, silver remains inside of its 11-year falling channel and is eyeing overhead resistance at (1).
Nasdaq On The Brink Of A Larger Collapse? Watch This Support!
Despite a 33% decline in the Nasdaq, this key stock market index remains inside of this 13-year rising channel. Barely. Today’s long-term “weekly” chart of the Nasdaq Composite Index highlights just how tenuous the bull market is right now. And why investors need to stay focused. Looking at the chart below, you can see that the 13-year rising channel has proven to be an enduring bull market run… but, is this run over? The coming days/weeks could decide the Nasdaq’s fate.
Is Round 2 of the Tech Stocks Bear Market Underway?
The past 5 days have seen another strong wave of selling across tech and growth stocks. Even more alarming is that tech stocks continue to underperform the broader market. And, as I have said many times, tech stocks have been a market leader for two decades… so it goes without saying that investors should follow tech stocks performance as a bull/bear indicator. In short, bulls want tech stocks to begin outperforming. Sadly, that is not the case yet.
Semiconductors Could Send Most Important Message Of The Year, Says Joe Friday!
Over the past decade, we have written A LOT about the importance of following the technology sector as a leading indicator of the health of the market. And, in particular, the Semiconductors. Why? Because the Semi’s have been an important leader of the bull market since the 2009 low. And, once again, it appears that the Semi’s may be trying to tell the market something important. Joe Friday: “The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts. Today, we revisit the “monthly” chart of the Semiconductors ETF (SMH).
13-Year Tech Support In Play, Will Results Be Different This Time?
The technology sector is a vibrant and important cog in today’s economy and stock market. Tech represents both growth and leadership in global equities and has been under pressure due to rising interest rates. Today’s chart highlights this bearish development quite well. Below is a “weekly” chart of the Equal Weight Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQEW). As you can see tech has traded within a 13 year rising price channel marked by each (1).
Hi Yo Silver Time For Silver Mining Stocks?
The precious metals arena has seen gold and silver pull back and consolidate for several months. And this, coupled with a bear market in equities has brought down precious metals mining stocks. But the miners are starting to show life. And if King Dollar slows its roll and equities continue to rally, then the miners could take off. Today, we take a look at a long-term “weekly” chart of the Silver Miners ETF (SIL) from Marketsmith.com.
Can Anything Slow US Dollar Currency Strength?
The US Dollar is strengthening along side rising interest rates. In fact, both are rocketing higher as inflation takes root and the European economy (and the Euro) weakens. Today we look for clues via the long-term “weekly” chart of the US Dollar Index. As you can see, the King Dollar has been so hot that it has rallied over 20% in 70 weeks. This puts the Dollar in an overbought zone that was seen when prior highs took root.
Global Investors Hoping China ETF (FXI) Holds At Support!
Next to the United States, one could argue that China is the world’s most important economy. It’s population and sheer size (and exports) make it a big deal to the investing community and global economy (and trade). So today we look at an important development on the China ETF $FXI. Below is a long-term “monthly” chart showing FXI attempting to breakdown through important price support. A month-end closing below the green line would be a concerning.
Will Bank Stocks Divergence Lead To Another Market Crash?
The health of our banking and financial sector is critically important to a strong economy. It’s also important to the stock market. Today, we look at a long-term ratio chart of the Bank to S&P 500 Indices. We also compare this to the S&P 500 Index performance to identify patterns of importance. In this regard, the chart highlights 3 key bearish divergences. The last two happened to last 2 years in length and lead to big downturns. The current one is 3 years old.
US Dollar Forms Large Bearish Reversal Pattern, Weakness Ahead?
The 2-year rally in the US Dollar Index pushed it up over 109 this month before heading lower. The action this month has also coincided with another big rate hike by the Federal Reserve. But there may be something bigger in play: Triple Resistance. As Joe Friday says, “The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts.” In today’s long-term “monthly” chart of the US Dollar Index, we can see the long wick on this months chart as price reversed lower from (1). See the full reversal candle highlighted at (2).
Energy Stocks Attempting To Break Down Through Key Support!
A couple weeks ago, we warned that energy stocks might be in trouble. We’ve followed and analyzed the entire trend higher for oil and commodities and, now, we are on technical support watch and concerned about commodities breaking down. Today we revisit the Oil Services ETF to highlight our concern. The chart below is a “monthly” chart and, as you can see, this Oil ETF (XOP) has been in a long-term downtrend marked by each (1). Price has formed lower highs and lower lows for the past 12 years.
S&P 500 Reversal Comes At Important Fibonacci Resistance!
There has been a lot of red investing screens in 2022 as the stock market correction / bear market has only intensified as the days wear on. Sometimes zooming out to a longer-term picture of the market helps offer perspective. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it makes today’s picture any less bearish! Today’s chart takes a long-term “monthly” look at the S&P 500. For this particular analysis, we take the lows from 2009 and 2020 marked by each (1) and use applied Fibonacci.
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