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Articles by Kyle Fee
What Share of Unemployed People in Fourth District States Receive Unemployment Insurance?
Figure 1: Share of Unemployed People Receiving Unemployment Insurance, 1976–2025 Figure 1 presents annual estimates for the share of unemployed individuals that receive UI benefits in Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and nationwide from 1976 through 2025. The national UI recipiency rate remained between 30 and 40 percent of unemployed people from the late 1970s through the 2000s before dropping below 30 percent during the 2010s.
Dollars and Cents: Real Hourly Wage Growth across the Lower Half of the Wage Distribution
Introduction Strong nominal wage growth among lower-wage workers was one of the defining characteristics of the US labor market coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Wage Growth Tracker shows that nominal year-over-year growth for the lower half of the wage distribution was north of 7.0 percent in late 2022 and early 2023.
Looking for Workers to Fill In-Demand Jobs? The OME's Got You Covered
Introduction The story of an NBA hall-of-famer shows that the best people for jobs can come from unexpected places. It may seem like Hakeem Olajuwon was always destined for basketball greatness. Standing at a towering seven feet, Olajuwon was a scoring, rebounding, and shot-blocking machine who propelled the Houston Rockets to two NBA championships, the only two in franchise history. But here’s another fun fact about Olajuwon: His first love was soccer.
Using the Occupational Mobility Explorer to Understand Which Skills Are Most in Demand
Community Development Reports Home › Publications › Community Development Reports Community Development Reports Using data from the Occupational Mobility Explorer, this report examines which skills are most in demand by employers, how demand for skills differs across Fourth District states and across the wage distribution, and which skills should be invested in to support economic mobility.
Want to Move Up the Career Ladder? Explore the Updated Occupational Mobility Explorer to Chart a Path to Better-Paying Jobs
Notes from the Field Home › Publications › Notes from the Field In September 2024, the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and Philadelphia released an update to the Occupational Mobility Explorer (OME), a tool that allows users to explore potential paths from lower-paying to higher-paying jobs, strengthening the economic performance of the region served by the Cleveland Fed and the nation.
Opinion: How could debt-related license suspensions affect the labor force?
In an average year, more than 1.7 million Ohioans cannot legally drive to work because they have a debt-related driver’s license suspension. At the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, I study economic mobility, often focusing on barriers that limit one’s ability to fully participate in the labor market.
Providing Labor Market Context for Debt-Related Driver’s License Suspensions in Ohio
Data source: LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics https://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/#lodes and Lightcast It stands out immediately that even in this scenario where only half of the DRS holders left the workforce, losses would be substantial statewide. The median ZCTA would stand to lose over 9 percent of its labor force, while fully one quarter would lose over 15 percent.
Using Worker Flows to Assess the Stability of the Early Childcare and Education Workforce, 2010-2022
Descriptions of ECE Occupations •Childcare workers attend to children at schools, businesses, private households, and childcare institutions and perform a variety of tasks, such as dressing, feeding, bathing, and overseeing play. •Preschool teachers instruct preschool-aged students, following curricula or lesson plans, in activities designed to promote social, physical, and intellectual growth. •Kindergarten teachers teach academic and social skills to kindergarten students.
Occupational Mobility Explorer
This interactive tool sheds light on career pathways in the U.S. labor market. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and Cleveland leverage the skills employers ask for to create a tool that allows users to explore career paths and visualize how skills for a particular occupation can transfer to similar but higher-paying jobs in the same geographical area.
Atlanta and Cleveland Feds release report on minority-owned small businesses based on findings from the 2016 Small Business Credit Survey
11.09.17 The report compares the experiences of minority-owned small businesses to firms with more than 50% white ownership The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland today issued the third in a series of reports that examines the results of an annual survey of small business owners. The Report on Minority–Owned Firms focuses on firms in which Asian, African American, Hispanic, or Native American individuals own more than 50% of the business.
Fintech, Bigtech, and Financial Inclusion
11.09.20 Loretta J. Mester Fourth Annual Fintech Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA (via videoconference) (PDF ) I thank the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the other organizers for inviting me to speak at the fourth annual Fintech Conference. I spent most of my career at the Philadelphia Fed, so it is always a pleasure to participate in one of its events.
The Federal Reserve’s New Monetary Policy Strategy
10.21.20 Loretta J. Mester 6th Annual Monetary and Financial Policy Conference, Money Macro and Finance Society, London, UK (via videoconference) (PDF ) I thank Paul Mizen and the Money Macro and Finance Society for the opportunity to speak at your 6th Annual Conference.
Subprime May Not Have Caused the 2000s Housing Crisis: Evidence from Cleveland, Ohio
(PDF ) DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202025 During the 2000s housing bust, Cleveland’s Slavic Village was dubbed “ground zero of the foreclosure crisis” by the national media. Despite this, during the preceding housing boom Cleveland had stable house price growth and relatively low mortgage debt growth, a stark contrast to circumstances in areas such as California that had exceptionally high house price and mortgage debt growth.
Research [in] Brief: Tax Cuts and Business Investment
Download pdf FULL TEXT Primary issue One anticipated effect of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was to stimulate businesses’ investment in things to help increase sales or profit margins in the future—new technology, research and development, machines, land, or buildings. But that investment grew more slowly after the tax reform than before it. Key findings The corporate tax cuts that were part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act included two provisions. One was a permanent cut in the corporate tax rate.
Payments and the Pandemic
09.23.20 Loretta J. Mester Keynote Session, 20th Anniversary Chicago Payments Symposium – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (via videoconference) (PDF ) It is a great pleasure being with you today as part of the 20th Anniversary Chicago Payments Symposium. Over the last two decades, this symposium has established itself as a valuable forum at which those interested in the payments system can gather to learn and share ideas.
An Update on the Economy and Monetary Policy
09.02.20 Loretta J. Mester Keynote Session, 2020 Economic Measurement Seminar, The NABE Foundation (via videoconference) (PDF ) I thank Jack Kleinhenz for inviting me to participate in the NABE Foundation’s 2020 Economic Measurement Seminar. I last spoke at a NABE conference in February. That was only six short months ago, but it seems like a lifetime. Many things have changed since then, including current economic conditions and the outlook for the economy and monetary policy.
The Economy and Monetary Policy in Our Challenging Times
08.05.20 Loretta J. Mester 2020 Liberal Arts Macroeconomics Conference, Pomona College, Claremont, CA (via videoconference) (PDF ) I thank Dean Croushore and the organizers of the 2020 Liberal Arts Macroeconomics Conference for inviting me to present in the keynote session. I also want to acknowledge the important role that the participants in this conference play in our economy and in society.
The Fed’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, explained
FULL TEXT America needs a bridge—a bridge that will get households, communities, and businesses over the unanticipated challenges created by the COVID-19 shutdown. In helping to build that bridge, the Federal Reserve, with authorization from Congress, has created and revived a number of rare lending programs, each providing targeted assistance to the needs of those impacted.
Infographics Library
07.01.20 The Information Effect of Monetary Policy: Self-Defeating or Optimal? Wesley Janson Chengcheng Jia As the Federal Reserve has become more transparent about its decisions on the federal funds target rate, the general public has begun to regard the rate as not only a benchmark interest rate, but also as a signal about the state of the economy. However, the specific information considered by the public to be revealed is not clearly understood.
Cleveland Fed research measures evictions during the COVID-19 crisis, finds filings have almost returned to prepandemic levels as temporary policies to protect renters begin to expire
07.17.20 Evictions are a serious risk for households facing job loss and economic upheaval during the COVID-19 pandemic, and temporary policies put in place to protect renters have begun to expire. In this report, Cleveland Fed researchers Rebecca Cowin, Hal Martin, and Clare Stevens explore how evictions are evolving in real time across 44 cities and counties and how state and local eviction regulations affect the trends in eviction filings as the pandemic crisis unfolds.
Measuring Evictions during the COVID-19 Crisis
(PDF ) | DOI: 10.26509/frbc-cd-20200717 Abstract Evictions are a serious risk for households facing job loss and economic upheaval during the COVID-19 pandemic, and temporary policies put in place to protect renters are beginning to expire. To understand how the crisis is affecting evictions, we measured eviction filing activity across 44 cities and counties.
The Fed’s Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility, explained
Download pdf FULL TEXT America needs a bridge—a bridge that will get households, communities, and businesses over the unanticipated challenges created by the COVID-19 shutdown. In helping to build that bridge, the Federal Reserve, with authorization from Congress, has created and revived a number of rare lending programs, each providing targeted assistance to the needs of those impacted. The challenge: Under normal economic conditions, larger businesses can raise funds by issuing corporate bonds.
The Fed’s Municipal Liquidity Facility, explained
FULL TEXT America needs a bridge—a bridge that will get households, communities, and businesses over the unanticipated challenges created by the COVID-19 shutdown. In helping to build that bridge, the Federal Reserve, with authorization from Congress, has created and revived a number of rare lending programs, each providing targeted assistance to the needs of those impacted. The challenge: Many of the revenues that cities, states, and counties take in have been adversely impacted by the pandemic.
The Information Effect of Monetary Policy: Self-Defeating or Optimal?
(PDF ) DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202015 As the Federal Reserve has become more transparent about its decisions on the federal funds target rate, the general public has begun to regard the rate as not only a benchmark interest rate, but also as a signal about the state of the economy. However, the specific information considered by the public to be revealed is not clearly understood.
The Fed’s Main Street Lending Program, explained
FULL TEXT America needs a bridge—a bridge that will get households, communities, and businesses over the unanticipated challenges created by the COVID-19 shutdown. In helping to build that bridge, the Federal Reserve, with authorization from Congress, has created and revived a number of rare lending programs, each providing targeted assistance to the needs of those impacted. The challenge: Business for many companies has slowed or halted, driving up their need for loans.
Lessons on the Economics of Pandemics from Recent Research
(PDF ) DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202011 The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a dual public health and economic crisis. Many economic studies in the past few months have explored the relationship between the spread of disease and economic activity, the role for government intervention in the crisis, and the effectiveness of testing and containment policies. This Commentary summarizes the methods and findings of a number of these studies.
The Fed’s Yield-Curve-Control Policy
(PDF ) The recent global financial crisis left governments in many advanced countries with very heavy debt burdens and their central banks with huge portfolios of government bonds.
Measuring the True Impact of Job Loss on Future Earnings
Losing a job is harmful not just in and around the time it happens; the event can also affect a worker negatively, and permanently, into the future. Economists have documented that the loss of some jobs leads to large and long-lasting reductions in a person’s lifetime earnings and wages.1 However, these long-term losses may have been overstated.
Warehousing A Historical Lesson in central bank independence
Federal Reserve warehousing—where the Fed and the US Treasury swap foreign-currency holdings—was one of the most controversial aspects of US foreign-exchange operations in the late twentieth century and a key factor in their termination. In the mid-1990s, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) worried about its reputation for price stability, warehousing reached its apogee.
Merger Control in the Banking Sector
Advanced economies typically adopt antitrust policies to promote competition and prevent monopolies from forming. Merger control, which sets rules under which mergers can be blocked as anticompetitive, is a key element of such policies. For example, in most settings, a merger creating a monopoly would be considered harmful to competition and prohibited.
Perspectives on the Economic Outlook and Banking Supervision and Regulation
I thank the Community Bankers Association of Ohio for the opportunity to speak at your annual convention and for your ongoing engagement with the Federal Reserve. That engagement actually goes back to the very beginnings of the Federal Reserve System. It might surprise some of you to know that in 1913, Elvadore Fancher, a vice president with Union National Bank of Cleveland, wrote to Congress suggesting how the regional Reserve Banks might be structured.
Stabilizing Local Housing Markets in Cuyahoga County: Blight Elimination
Ten years removed from the housing crisis, local housing markets are still feeling the negative effects of the collapse. The share of foreclosed homes has declined from peak levels, but blight remains an obstacle to stabilizing local housing markets. Strategic interventions to eliminate blight balance demolition and rehabilitation of homes in order to promote housing market stability.
Consumer Scam Alert: Do Not Use Federal Reserve Routing Account Numbers to Pay Bills; Could Face Late Fees, Other Charges
Recently, the Federal Reserve Banks have received a number of unauthorized transactions in which consumers have tried to use the Fed’s routing numbers and their Social Security numbers to pay their bills. Federal Reserve routing numbers are used for sorting and processing payments between banks. Any video, text, email, phone call, flyer, or website that describes how to pay bills using a Federal Reserve Bank routing number, or using an account at a Federal Reserve Bank, is a scam.
Wage Growth after the Great Recession
Many commentators have noted that nominal wage growth has been lower than expected since the end of the Great Recession (see, for example, Danninger 2016). In particular, nominal wage growth was below trend from late 2009 to early 2015—the period covered by most studies—despite a decrease in unemployment.
Neighborhood Change in the Fourth Federal Reserve District: A Multivariate Approach
This special report provides a description of neighborhood change in the four largest cities of the Fourth Federal Reserve District, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus, Ohio, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, from 1970 to 2010. The analysis relies on a statistical method of categorizing neighborhoods into a typology that is based on various quantitative characteristics of the residents and the housing stock.
From Coal to Craft: Eastern Kentucky’s Changing Economy
Part 2 of a 4-part Forefront series examining eastern Kentucky's transition away from a coal-centric economy. Read the series Swiftly changing economic conditions, highly competitive trade growth, and a future relying on evolving technology, a transition is taking place in eastern Kentucky. The decline of the coal industry and loss of thousands of mining jobs creates a need to reexamine a new economic direction for eastern Kentucky.
Latest News Release
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized rate) in February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.
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