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Articles by Laird Johnson
The Qatar Situation: Part II
Last week, we discussed a short history of Qatar and its geopolitical imperatives. This week, we will analyze the events precipitating the blockade, the blockade itself, the GCC’s demands and the impact thus far on Qatar. We will examine how the situation has reached a stalemate and, as always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Index Regains Momentum in July
The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for July came in at 105.2, up 1.6 from the previous month. The index is at the 97th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 103.6.
Know Your ETF - Macquarie Investment Management - Commentaries - Advisor Perspectives
Many investors think of active and passive management as polar opposites, with nothing in common except the markets in which they operate. While this may be a popular notion, we believe it was never technically true. The question is not whether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other passive strategies are, in fact, managed investments, but rather how — and how much — they are managed.
Fed in a Real Quandary - No Good Policy Options Now
2. Fed Wants to Raise Rates, But Economy is Questionable 5. What Fed Policy Changes Should We Expect Just Ahead? The Fed remains committed to raising short-term interest rates at least one more time this year, most likely at the September policy meeting as I will discuss below. The Fed also wants to start reducing its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet this year, but doing so in the past has almost always led to a recession. The Fed knows this and thus finds itself in a very uncomfortable position.
On Value in the Emerging Markets
“Value” is an over-utilized term within the investment management industry.
The Qatar Situation: Part I
The area of modern Qatar was part of two early kingdoms of Saudi Arabia. The first Saudi kingdom lasted from 1744 through 1818. The forces of the Ottoman Empire overthrew this first kingdom which was ruled by Muhammad ibn Saud. The al Sauds rose again in 1824 and created the second Saudi kingdom. This kingdom lasted until 1891, when internal conflicts within the al Sauds led to its demise. Qatar is a peninsula nation that juts into the Persian Gulf.
US Equity Downturn Fears Deserve Attention
Even amid the midsummer lull, more investors are hunkering down and preparing for a potential correction. As the S&P 500 Index continues its relentless grind higher, we think it’s worth considering proactive steps for a change in the environment. US equity market volatility remains subdued. According to the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, US stock market volatility hasn’t been this low in more than a decade.
The Ambergris Factor
Admittedly, it’s extremely difficult to find consistent 20-percent growers and to then have the courage to hold them for the long-term. But from a portfolio point of view, if you keep eliminating the stocks whose growth rate falters, you will avoid the “blubber” and be left with the “ambergris,” the chosen few which may turn into the 20-percent growers – the key to huge stock market gains.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Raise Price Targets?
With President Trump taking vacation at the same time as Congress and a light data calendar, what will the pundits feast upon? Corporate earnings results and new stock market records mean that the price targets at the start of the year are now obsolete. For many, the question will be: Is it time to raise price targets? The Story in One Chart I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a chart of market price moves. The key feature is the lack of volatility.
World Markets Update
All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through August 7. The top performer thus far is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 25.86%, followed closely by India's BSE SENSEX at 21.21%. In third is our own S&P 500 with 10.81%. The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the last four weeks for these eight major indexes.
The Myth of Stock Pickers | Dan Solin's Investing Secrets
Everyone would like to invest in the next Apple or Microsoft! Stock picking is more like gambling than investing. When you pick stocks, you could get lucky but it's far more likely you won't. Subscribe to "Dan Solin's Investing Secrets" YouTube channel and get a free copy of Dan's book "The Smartest Sales Book You'll Ever Read." https://goo.gl/x3swRG
Retirement Income
Building an “income floor” may be a good first step when planning how to achieve sustainable retirement income, says Daniel Keady of TIAA.
On My Radar: Valuations and What They Tell Us About Coming 7- and 10-Year Returns
“The uncertainties are unusual in terms of number, scale and insolubility in areas including secular economic growth; the impact of central banks; interest rates and inflation; political dysfunction; geopolitical trouble spots; and the long-term impact of technology.” “In the vast majority of asset classes, prospective returns are just about the lowest they’ve ever been.” “Asset prices are high across the board. Almost nothing can be bought below its intrinsic value, and there are few bargains.
Profit Margins Expand to New Highs to Boost 2Q17 Results
: The headline numbers for 2Q17 financial reports are good: S&P profits are up 19% yoy; sales are 6% higher; profit margins are at new highs. This is in stark contrast to early 2016, when profits had declined by 15% and most investors expected a recession and a new bear market to be underway. These strong results are not due to better oil prices. Sales for the sectors with the highest weighting in the S&P have grown an average of 9% in the past year.
London Office Property Prices - Going Over the Cliff?
London office property prices have stayed surprisingly high since the Brexit vote to leave the European Union (EU) in mid-2016. A recent rise in vacancy levels (from a low base) hasn’t yet made a dent in high rent costs, while low transaction prices have attracted foreign buyers lured by the post-Brexit fall of the British pound. But that might be about to change. There’s a high level of new office construction coming to market just as demand appears to be faltering. Are rent prices like Wile E.
Estimating Market Losses at a Speculative Extreme
“Investors have turned the market into a carnival, where everybody ‘knows’ that the new rides are the good rides, and the old rides just don’t work. Where the carnival barkers seem to hand out free money for just showing up. Unfortunately, this business is not that kind - it has always been true that in every pyramid, in every easy-money sure-thing, the first ones to get out are the only ones to get out...
How Ireland's Economy Rebounded After the Financial Crisis
Prior to the global financial crisis (GFC), Ireland’s economy was a stellar performer, earning the country the moniker of “Celtic tiger.” The onset of the GFC caused a major economic contraction and a housing crash — but today, Ireland is once again the fastest-growing economy in the eurozone. In this blog, I examine the key elements that allowed Ireland to regain its footing.
Charts for the Beach - 2017
It’s time for our annual August report called “Charts for the beach.” Take a look at five of our favorite charts that highlight what we think consensus is currently missing. Remember to wear your official RBA baseball cap while sitting in the sun! An example of why you should ignore politics. We have repeatedly pointed out that politics is about what should be, but investing is about what is. Listening to politicians for investment advice has rarely been worthwhile.
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