Is this you? As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.
Claim your profile
Articles by Lance Gordon
After the Midterms, the Right Strategy Against Iran
Keep the Strait Open, Cut Off the IRGC’s Oil Money On November 3, voters handed President Trump what The Wall Street Journal called one of the most decisive repudiations of a president in modern history. Pump prices rose 40 percent, the Iran war has cost taxpayers more than $47 billion, and more than 20 American servicemembers have died. The war has not been won: the strait remains contested, and Tehran has not accepted Washington’s core terms on nuclear weapons, missiles, and proxies.
After the Midterms, the Right Strategy Against Iran
Click below to continue reading this story, discover more Iran stories from over 25 years of RealClear archives, or follow this topic to stay in the know. Lance Gordon • RealClearDefense Keep the Strait Open, Cut Off the IRGC’s Oil Money...
After the Midterms, the Right Strategy Against Iran
Keep the Strait Open, Cut Off the IRGC’s Oil Money What the Election Decided On November 3, voters handed President Trump what The Wall Street Journal called one of the most decisive repudiations of a president in modern history. Pump prices rose 40 percent, the Iran war has cost taxpayers more than $47 billion, and more than 20 American servicemembers have died.
After the Midterms, the Right Strategy Against Iran
Keep the Strait Open, Cut Off the IRGC’s Oil Money kAm~? }@G6>36C b[ G@E6CD 92?565 !C6D:56?E %CF>A H92E %96 (2== $EC66E y@FC?2= 42==65 @?6 @7 E96 >@DE k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]HD;]4@>^A@=:E:4D^A@=:4J^9@H\ECF>A\=@DE\>:5E6C>D\bb47h75cQm564:D:G6 C6AF5:2E:@?Dk^2m @7 2 AC6D:56?E :? >@56C? 9:DE@CJ] !F>A AC:46D C@D6 c_ A6C46?E[ E96 xC2? H2C 92D 4@DE E2IA2J6CD >@C6 E92?
Strike first: Israel’s inevitable doctrine for the Iranian axis
Jerusalem, Israel Introduction On October 7, 2023, Hamas carried out the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust, with some 1,200 people killed, most of them civilians brutally murdered, and 251 taken hostage. Israel held the attack plan more than a year in advance, and three months before the attack a veteran signals-intelligence analyst warned that Hamas was rehearsing it.
Strike First: Israel's Inevitable Doctrine for the Iranian Axis
On October 7, 2023, Hamas carried out the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust, with some 1,200 people killed, most of them civilians brutally murdered, and 251 taken hostage. Israel held the attack plan more than a year in advance, and three months before the attack a veteran signals-intelligence analyst warned that Hamas was rehearsing it. Both were dismissed under the conception that Hamas was deterred, a failure the Israel Defense Forces' own investigations later confirmed.
Strike First: Israel's Inevitable Doctrine for the Iranian Axis
Click below to continue reading this story, discover more Iran stories from over 25 years of RealClear archives, or follow this topic to stay in the know. Lance Gordon • RealClearDefense An assumption never re-examined becomes a blind spot, as the Agranat Commission found after 1973....
Strike First: Israel's Inevitable Doctrine for the Iranian Axis
On October 7, 2023, Hamas carried out the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust, with some 1,200 people killed, most of them civilians brutally murdered, and 251 taken hostage. Israel held the attack plan more than a year in advance, and three months before the attack a veteran signals-intelligence analyst warned that Hamas was rehearsing it. Both were dismissed under the conception that Hamas was deterred, a failure the Israel Defense Forces' own investigations later confirmed.
From Transformation to Containment: The Iran War’s Lesson for Campaign Design
Six months of American and Israeli operations degraded Iran’s military forces without breaking the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the institution that regenerates those forces. Washington has since shifted to denying the hard currency the Guard depends on. That instrument is right, but it will be judged by the wrong test if success requires Iran to give up its programs. Containment requires nothing of Tehran.
Economic Compellence Beyond the Buyer: Targeting Iran’s Oil-Revenue Network in China
Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion created significant military leverage against Iran but have not secured the broader strategic objectives sought by the United States and Israel. Three lines of effort follow: supply-side interdiction, building oil pipelines around Iranian control of Hormuz, and demand-side pressure on what still gets out. Earlier analyses set out the first two.
Build Around the Blackmail
Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz is not a geographic fact but a temporary infrastructure gap. Gulf producers and Turkey already have seven bypass pipelines built, under construction or in planning; phased, funded and defended, they could carry most of what the strait once did. Reopening the waterway to routine commercial shipping could require a major ground operation, and even military control might not satisfy the insurers. Building around it requires no Iranian consent.
No Deal Is Better Than a Bad Deal on Iran
No Deal Is Better Than a Bad Deal on Iran The Hormuz transit framework has taken shape, but the terms for reopening have hardened.
No Deal Is Better Than a Bad Deal on Iran
On August 2, Senator John Kennedy put it plainly on Meet the Press. Asked what the U.S. should do after President Trump halted planned strikes on Iran, Kennedy said: “We only have three choices: escalate, retreat and come home, or maintain the status quo. I would maintain the status quo as long as I could.” The President appears to have settled on the same option.
Beyond Airstrikes: The Missing Phase of the Iran Campaign
U.S. military operations have degraded Iranian capabilities, but they have not altered Tehran's belief that it can outlast Washington or continue threatening neighboring Arab states and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A coordinated revenue-denial campaign across five principal channels, beginning with Kharg Island's loading infrastructure, is more likely to produce a verifiable agreement than continued attrition alone.
The US Military’s Strategic Master Mistake: A Retired Intelligence Officer Says Washington Bombs Iran and Spares Its Cash
U.S. military operations have degraded Iranian capabilities, but they have not altered Tehran’s belief that it can outlast Washington or continue threatening neighboring Arab states and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A coordinated revenue-denial campaign across five principal channels, beginning with Kharg Island’s loading infrastructure, is more likely to produce a verifiable agreement than continued attrition alone.
Beyond Airstrikes: The Missing Phase of the Iran Campaign
U.S. military operations have degraded Iranian capabilities, but they have not altered Tehran's belief that it can outlast Washington or continue threatening neighboring Arab states and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Read Full Article » Show comments Hide Comments
Time to Enforce the MOU With Iran
Iran has broken the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, attacking Gulf shipping, refusing to grant IAEA access to nuclear sites, and stating it will impose tolls on strait transits while angling for better terms. Its most important coercive weapon, an oil chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, has been dramatically weakened by the market.
Time to Enforce the MOU With Iran
Iran has broken the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, attacking Gulf shipping, refusing to grant IAEA access to nuclear sites, and stating it will impose tolls on strait transits while angling for better terms. Read Full Article » Show comments Hide Comments
Time to Enforce the MOU With Iran
Iran has broken the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, attacking Gulf shipping, refusing to grant IAEA access to nuclear sites, and stating it will impose tolls on strait transits while angling for better terms. Its most important coercive weapon, an oil chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, has been dramatically weakened by the market.
Iran: Time to enforce
By Capt. Lance Gordon Real Clear Wire Iran has broken the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, attacking Gulf shipping, refusing to grant IAEA access to nuclear sites, and stating it will impose tolls on strait transits while angling for better terms. Its most important coercive weapon, an oil chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, has been dramatically weakened by the market.
Winning the War, Losing the Peace
The Iran Campaign and the June 17 Memorandum
Winning the War, Losing the Peace
The United States and Israel were winning the 2026 campaign against Iran. Then Washington gave up the advantage. The June 17 memorandum it signed traded decisive leverage for a framework weaker than the 2015 nuclear deal and financed the adversary it was defeating. This analysis shows the siege was working and a disarmament settlement was within reach; addresses the “oil clock” case for a fast exit; and documents how Israel, a key partner in the campaign, was sidelined in the aftermath.
Finish the Job — Close the Wallet
Clausewitz wrote that war is the continuation of politics by other means. The political object, not the military result, is the test. The strategist's recurring error is tactical victory that fails to convert into the strategic outcome the campaign was designed to produce. The United States is at exactly that hinge in Iran.
Finish the Job — Close the Wallet
Compel the IRGC to Choose: The Deal or Insolvency
After Iran’s Rejection: Pressure, Not Pause
On May 6, the United States offered Iran a one-page, fourteen-point memorandum of understanding through Pakistani mediators to end the war. The framework paired a fifteen-year nuclear enrichment moratorium and transfer of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile outside its borders with U.S. sanctions relief, release of billions in frozen Iranian assets, and mutual withdrawal from Strait of Hormuz controls.
After Iran’s Rejection: Pressure, Not Pause
The United States has no alternative but to reengage with full compellence to force Iran to “Outcome 2”
Hold the Line! No Partial Deal with the IRGC
Iran’s negotiating position has deteriorated sharply. Kpler data indicates Iran has only 12 to 24 days of usable onshore crude storage remaining, with exports down approximately 70 percent and forced production cuts already underway. Forced shut-ins risk permanent reservoir damage, water coning, formation compaction, and permeability loss that no future sanctions relief can reverse. Trump has publicly stated that Iran has communicated it is under severe and growing pressure.
Hold the Line! No Partial Deal with the IRGC
Hold the Line! No Partial Deal with the IRGC The United States and Israel now have a rare opportunity to convert military and financial leverage into a durable strategic outcome
Hold the Line! No Partial Deal with the IRGC
Iran’s negotiating position has deteriorated sharply. Kpler data indicates Iran has only 12 to 24 days of usable onshore crude storage remaining, with exports down approximately 70 percent and forced production cuts already underway. Forced shut-ins risk permanent reservoir damage, water coning, formation compaction, and permeability loss that no future sanctions relief can reverse. Trump has publicly stated that Iran has communicated it is under severe and growing pressure.
Hold the line: No partial deal with Iran
By Captain Lance B. Gordon U.S. Navy, (ret.) Real Clear Wire Iran’s negotiating position has deteriorated sharply. Kpler (https://www.kpler.com) data indicates Iran has only 12 to 24 days of usable onshore crude storage remaining, with exports down approximately 70 percent and forced production cuts already underway. Forced shut-ins risk permanent reservoir damage, water coning, formation compaction, and permeability loss that no future sanctions relief can reverse.
Hold the Line! No Partial Deal with the IRGC
Iran’s negotiating position has deteriorated sharply. Kpler data indicates Iran has only 12 to 24 days of usable onshore crude storage remaining, with exports down approximately 70 percent and forced production cuts already underway. Forced shut-ins risk permanent reservoir damage, water coning, formation compaction, and permeability loss that no future sanctions relief can reverse. Trump has publicly stated that Iran has communicated it is under severe and growing pressure.
Financial Compellence in the Iran Campaign
After more than a month of sustained combat operations, Iranian military capability has been degraded, but no strategic decision has been forced. The current ceasefire is not a pause in the conflict—it is a window to apply pressure more effectively and force a decision. The United States is applying pressure. Iran is managing time to gain advantage. The blockade has imposed real friction.
Financial Compellence in the Iran Campaign
The Problem: Pressure Without Decision After more than a month of sustained combat operations, Iranian military capability has been degraded, but no strategic decision has been forced. The current ceasefire is not a pause in the conflict—it is a window to apply pressure more effectively and force a decision. The United States is applying pressure. Iran is managing time to gain advantage. The blockade has imposed real friction.
From Mandate to Execution: The Clear–Shield–Sustain Model for Contested Stabilization
Contemporary stabilization missions often take place in environments where political agreements exist, but the structures needed to carry them out are weak. Drawing on lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan, this article proposes the Clear–Shield–Sustain (CSS) model as a practical framework built around a unified execution headquarters that controls transitions between combat, security, and reconstruction while maintaining strict accountability over aid and resources.
Financial Compellence in the Iran Campaign
After more than a month of sustained combat operations, Iranian military capability has been degraded, but no strategic decision has been forced. The current ceasefire is not a pause in the conflict—it is a window to apply pressure more effectively and force a decision. The United States is applying pressure. Iran is managing time to gain advantage.
The two critical Iran lifelines the US has left largely untouched as cease-fire talks stall
The cease-fire with Iran, though extended, could end any day now. Meanwhile, Iran has fired on tankers, opened and closed the Strait of Hormuz within hours and rejected Washington’s core demands. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, not Iran’s civilian government, is calling the shots. And a senior US official confirmed this week what the numbers have shown all along: “Iran has no money. They’re broke. We know it. And they know we know it.” If that is true, a deal is closer than the chaos suggests.
If Iran won’t deal, here’s what comes next
By Lance Gordon Real Clear Wire The ceasefire expired Wednesday, but was extended. Iran has fired on tankers, opened and closed the Strait of Hormuz within hours, and rejected Washington’s core demands. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, not Iran’s civilian government, is calling the shots. And a senior US official confirmed this week what the numbers have shown all along: “Iran has no money. They’re broke. We know it.
The 2 critical Iran lifelines the US has left largely untouched — just as cease-fire talks stall
A big swirling bucket of the latest rumors, celebrity news and Hollywood gossip. The premier celebrity gossip app. The only apps that gives you a comprehensive real time celeb news stream. Gossip Bucket aggregates and streams the latest gossip news and headlines from the top sources in one place.
The 2 critical Iran lifelines the US has left largely untouched — just as cease-fire talks stall
During a public rally at Tehran's Enghelab Square, a missile identified as "Khorramshahr-4", on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, was displayed in support of Iran's negotiating team, while US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire at the request of a Pakistani mediator. Behnam Tofighi/UPI/Shutterstock The cease-fire with Iran, though extended, could end any day now. Meanwhile, Iran has fired on tankers, opened and closed the Strait of Hormuz within hours and rejected Washington’s core demands.
If Iran Won’t Deal, Here’s What Comes Next
The ceasefire expires Wednesday. Iran has fired on tankers, opened and closed the Strait of Hormuz within hours, and rejected Washington’s core demands. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, not Iran’s civilian government, is calling the shots. And a senior US official confirmed this week what the numbers have shown all along: “Iran has no money. They’re broke. We know it. And they know we know it.” If that is true, a deal is closer than the chaos suggests.
If Iran Won’t Deal, Here’s What Comes Next
If Iran Won’t Deal, Here’s What Comes Next ... the IRGC’s ability to hold out remains intact, because Washington has left two critical financial lifelines largely untouched.
If Iran Won’t Deal, Here’s What Comes Next
The ceasefire expires Wednesday. Iran has fired on tankers, opened and closed the Strait of Hormuz within hours, and rejected Washington’s core demands. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, not Iran’s civilian government, is calling the shots. And a senior US official confirmed this week what the numbers have shown all along: “Iran has no money. They’re broke. We know it. And they know we know it.” If that is true, a deal is closer than the chaos suggests.
If Iran Won’t Deal, Here’s What Comes Next
The ceasefire expires Wednesday. Iran has fired on tankers, opened and closed the Strait of Hormuz within hours, and rejected Washington’s core demands. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, not Iran’s civilian government, is calling the shots. And a senior US official confirmed this week what the numbers have shown all along: “Iran has no money. They’re broke. We know it. And they know we know it.” If that is true, a deal is closer than the chaos suggests.
Oil Revenues as the IRGC’s Center of Gravity: The Case for Strikes on Kharg
The April 7 ceasefire follows extraordinary U.S.-Israeli-coalition military results but leaves the IRGC’s true center of gravity untouched: its commercial empire. This analysis argues that compelling the IRGC to accept the administration’s requires economic pressure on that empire — specifically, Kharg Island’s oil export infrastructure, the mechanism through which 190,000 personnel are paid and the entire enterprise is funded. The IRGC is not primarily an ideological force.
Coercive Architecture of the 2026 Iran War and Its Strategic Implications
The campaign appears designed not to produce immediate regime collapse but to create sustained leverage that constrains Iran’s options after major combat operations Read Full Article » Show comments Hide Comments
Iran in the Box: The Coercive Architecture of the 2026 Iran War and Its Strategic Implications
This paper assesses the strategic logic of the 2026 United States–Israel campaign against Iran and argues that the destruction of missile, drone, naval, air-defense, and proxy capabilities, combined with leadership targeting and economic pressure on assets such as Kharg Island, reflects a single coercive strategy rather than independent military objectives.
The Gaza Execution Gap
Abstract: Over two years after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel, the United States advanced a Comprehensive Plan, endorsed by United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803, to stabilize Gaza through a multinational International Stabilization Force (ISF). Yet stabilization efforts face a persistent execution gap: in contested environments, consensus-based coordination alone is insufficient to enforce security conditions, manage transitions, or maintain logistics visibility.
UNSCR 2803 Archives
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
Show More
loading
Actions
Is this you?
As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.Get in touch with Lance
Contact Lance, search articles and posts on X, monitor coverage, and track replies from one place.
Learn more about Muck Rack