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Articles by Lars Kreckel
Japan versus global inflation
13 Jul 2022 3 min read Numerous factors are putting upward pressure on prices in Japan, and the yen is acting as an escape valve for the central bank's yield curve control policy. Japan stands out as one of the few economies that appears impervious to the wave of inflation washing over the world economy.
Omicron and markets: what we are watching
29 Nov 2021 2 min read We will be focusing on three key questions around the spread of a new variant of COVID-19. The COVID-19 situation had not been looking good across Europe anyway, but at least there was the hope that the shift into an endemic scenario was not far away, especially with a re-acceleration in vaccinations, boosters and the availability of antiviral drugs. This may well still be the case, but the emergence of a new variant of concern has added to the tail risk that it isn’t.
Reloading the small-cap reopening trade, post-Delta
Small-caps in the US may not be laggards for long. The spread of a more contagious COVID-19 variant through 2021 dampened some of the enthusiasm about an economic reopening in the market, but its impact was selective.
Bubbles are rare, especially just out of a recession
With some market watchers ready to call an equity bubble, I look at what my own indicators are saying. There is a lot of bubble talk at the moment. A fellow scholar of market bubbles, Jeremy Grantham, begins his new outlook: “The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble.” When Mr Grantham speaks we ought to listen, as he is a great student of the history of bubbles and has a good track record in predicting the moments when they burst.
Equities: The case for further caution
Despite the massive declines in markets, we are wary on the outlook for risk assets like global equities, given the large uncertainty over the economic impact of COVID-19 and the efficacy of the response from policymakers. I hope that everyone’s families, friends and businesses are weathering these difficult times well.
US midterms: three scenarios for investors
As was the case with the 2016 Brexit vote, the 2016 US Presidential election and the 2017 UK general election, predicting the outcome of the upcoming US midterms has become something of a pastime for investment and political commentators. Yet as these examples so clearly demonstrate, political events are, by their very nature, political, and therefore very difficult to predict. We believe there’s more value in preparing for a range of eventualities.
Nordic Capital exits Bambora, gets €1.5 billion - International Finance Magazine
Nordic Capital Fund VIII (“Nordic Capital”) has signed an agreement to divest global payment company Bambora to Ingenico Group (publ.) for an Enterprise Value of approximately EUR 1.5 billion. Less than three years after its start-up, Bambora is now an industry innovator with a unique and compelling position in the global payments industry.
No evidence that US wage growth is picking up - International Finance Magazine
One thing is for sure: the US economy is closer to full employment than it was a year ago. More difficult to say is whether it is at full employment. So far, we’re still lacking much evidence that US wage growth is picking up steam. However, much like a tube of toothpaste being squeezed a little too hard, wage growth can suddenly accelerate when labour markets are tight.
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