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Articles by Linus Cohen
Paterson at ASPI’s Defence Conference: break the bad defence news to the public
In his fireside with former defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon at the 2026 ASPI Defence Conference, Senator James Paterson took the view that Australia’s political and military leaders had arrived at a largely correct diagnosis of its strategic problem: the country remained, in important respects, unprepared. But they hadn’t fully broken the news to the patient. The question for elected officials in particular was what to do about it.
Australian Defence acquisition’s turn to stewardship of industry brings new risks
Ask a minister about the Defence Delivery Agency – we did – and the first thing you’ll hear is that it won’t be DMO 2.0. From information released over the past few days, including by way of the 2026 Defence Industry Development Strategy (DIDS), it’s become clear that the differences between the planned DDA and the former Defence Materiel Organisation are more significant than they first appeared.
Pressure Points: China’s expanding presence in the Pacific and Indian oceans
China’s security footprint was once confined to its immediate neighbourhood. That time is now past. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping since 2013, China has steadily extended its presence across the Indian and Pacific oceans, building relationships and gaining access far from home waters. The third instalment of ASPI’s Pressure Points series, released today, examines this transformation.
2026 cost of defence: the budget is a promise to the future paid for by the present
Australia’s 2026–27 budget commits the federal government to daily spending around A$181.9 million on defence. That headline sits on the cover of our 2026 The cost of Defence report, released today. The number is sobering. The composition is more so. One of the most worrying issues in the budget is that we are buying a future force and doing so by accepting that the current force will be able to do less today.
2026 defence budget – A$17.4 billion in spending uplift still undecided | The Strategist
About A$17.4 billion of the Australian government’s promised A$53 billion increase in headline defence spending over the next 10 years remains uncertain. Of the uplift promised by the National Defence Strategy (NDS) a month ago and reaffirmed by Treasurer Jim Chalmers in his 12 May budget speech, only A$35.6 billion of additional funding has been visibly earmarked for Defence.
Expanding Frontiers: What Happens if Beijing Accelerates Its Indo-Pacific Push
Rather than gradually expanding its defence and security engagement across the Indo-Pacific, Beijing may choose to accelerate its trajectory, pushing boundaries to advance its interests and take advantage of a distracted United States. The result would be a rapid buildup of Chinese presence and a sharper, faster-moving cycle of pressure that tests regional cohesion and alliance resolve.
What Happens if Beijing Accelerates Its Indo-Pacific Push
Rather than gradually expanding its defence and security engagement across the Indo-Pacific, Beijing may choose to accelerate its trajectory, pushing boundaries to advance its interests and take advantage of a distracted United States Read Full Article » Show comments Hide Comments
Expanding frontiers: what happens if Beijing accelerates its Indo-Pacific push
Rather than gradually expanding its defence and security engagement across the Indo-Pacific, Beijing may choose to accelerate its trajectory, pushing boundaries to advance its interests and take advantage of a distracted United States. The result would be a rapid buildup of Chinese presence and a sharper, faster-moving cycle of pressure that tests regional cohesion and alliance resolve.
Expanding Frontiers: How China’s Outward Push Could Cause Friction
China’s expanding presence beyond the first island chain is most likely to generate incidents, friction and escalation risks not through deliberate aggression but through growing operational proximity. As Chinese military, paramilitary and law-enforcement activity becomes more persistent across the Southwest Pacific, Australia’s maritime approaches and the Indian Ocean, regional countries will encounter Chinese forces more frequently.
Warning Signs: How China Normalizes Its Military Presence
As its presence becomes more normal, China’s aggressive and illegal behavior will attract less opposition. Credit: Pixabay Subscribe for ads-free reading A major strategic shift in the Indo-Pacific is happening quietly: China’s presence in seas and ports far from its coast is becoming routine. The frequency of its appearances has been rising for about a decade. Now it’s approaching a point where China’s military presence has become normal and expected, not aggressive.
Warning Signs: How China Normalises Its Presence
A major strategic shift in the Indo-Pacific is happening quietly: China’s presence in seas and ports far from its coast is becoming routine. The frequency of its appearances has been rising for about a decade. Now it’s approaching a point where China’s military presence has become normal and expected, not aggressive.
Expanding frontiers: how China’s outward push could cause friction
China’s expanding presence beyond the first island chain is most likely to generate incidents, friction and escalation risks not through deliberate aggression but through growing operational proximity. As Chinese military, paramilitary and law-enforcement activity becomes more persistent across the Southwest Pacific, Australia’s maritime approaches and the Indian Ocean, regional countries will encounter Chinese forces more frequently.
Expanding Frontiers: China’s Military Push Beyond the First Island Chain
China’s defence and security presence beyond the Western Pacific is set to intensify over the next decade, expanding its access, influence and operational reach across the Indo-Pacific. In the Southwest Pacific, Beijing is likely to build its position through security cooperation, infrastructure development and a more regularised presence, while activity across the Indian Ocean and Australia’s maritime approaches is likely to become more frequent, capable and strategically purposeful.
OPINION | Expanding frontiers: China's military push beyond the first island chain
China’s push beyond the first island chain For much of the past decade, analysis of China’s military rise has focused on its actions within the first island chain. Yet beyond this immediate theatre, a quieter but significant shift is underway. Beijing is expanding its defence and security engagement across three interconnected regions: the Southwest Pacific, the Indian Ocean and Australia’s maritime approaches. This outward push reflects a strategy.
Warning signs: how China normalises its presence
A major strategic shift in the Indo-Pacific is happening quietly: China’s presence in seas and ports far from its coast is becoming routine. The frequency of its appearances has been rising for about a decade. Now it’s approaching a point where China’s military presence has become normal and expected, not aggressive.
Expanding Frontiers: China’s Military Push Beyond the First Island Chain
China’s defence and security presence beyond the Western Pacific is set to intensify over the next decade, expanding its access, influence and operational reach across the Indo-Pacific Read Full Article » Show comments Hide Comments
Expanding Frontiers: China’s Military Push Beyond the First Island Chain
Beijing has a deliberate, long-term strategy – one that prioritizes persistence and gradual advantage. Credit: Subscribe for ads-free reading China’s defense and security presence beyond the Western Pacific is set to intensify over the next decade, expanding its access, influence, and operational reach across the Indo-Pacific.
Expanding frontiers: China’s military push beyond the first island chain
China’s defence and security presence beyond the Western Pacific is set to intensify over the next decade, expanding its access, influence and operational reach across the Indo-Pacific. In the Southwest Pacific, Beijing is likely to build its position through security cooperation, infrastructure development and a more regularised presence, while activity across the Indian Ocean and Australia’s maritime approaches is likely to become more frequent, capable and strategically purposeful.
NDS 2026 – The three ways to count Australian defence spending | The Strategist
So you thought that watching defence spending was complicated. Well, Australia’s new National Defence Strategy displays three different ways of counting it. There’s the Defence portfolio’s appropriation from government; the appropriation from government plus Defence’s own-source revenue; and, newly introduced, Defence’s interpretation of the NATO measure of defence spending. These numbers differ from one another considerably.
U.S. Defence Export Strategy Has a Credibility Problem
High-end U.S. platforms will still be coveted overseas whatever the White House does, but that in turn complicates its plan to ‘supercharge’ the U.S. defence industrial base through improved market discipline
U.S. Defence Export Strategy Has a Credibility Problem
A dimming outlook for U.S. defence exports in Europe – outlined by Bill Sweetman in a 24 March Strategist article – should raise concerns for the viability of the Trump administration’s defence export strategy. That strategy aims to meet procurement and industrial policy objectives in two ways: by shaping foreign demand and by disciplining domestic supply. It assumes the White House has considerable leverage over both. But it may not.
Australia’s national auditor moves to keep Defence acquisition accountable
Australia may not lose most public accountability for Defence acquisition spending after all. The Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) has quietly begun work on what looks very much like a replacement for the discontinued Major Projects Report (MPR), formerly the biggest window into how Defence spent A$20 billion a year.
US defence export strategy has a credibility problem
A dimming outlook for US defence exports in Europe – outlined by Bill Sweetman in a 24 March Strategist article – should raise concerns for the viability of the Trump administration’s defence export strategy. That strategy aims to meet procurement and industrial policy objectives in two ways: by shaping foreign demand and by disciplining domestic supply. It assumes the White House has considerable leverage over both. But it may not.
The biggest window into Australian defence acquisition has closed
The main mechanism by which Defence is held accountable to the public for management of its A$20-billion-per-year capability acquisition program has ended.
ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker: 2025 updates and 10 new technologies
ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker now covers global research efforts into 74 technologies, giving policymakers, industry and partners the clearest, most current picture of the tech race for strategic advantage. This expanded scope adds 10 technologies identified through extensive consultation and review of Australia’s critical technology strategies and those of its allies. The tracker measures not a country’s overall strength in critical technologies but its research performance in them.
How to count Australian defence spending as (almost) 2.8 percent of GDP
We can almost get there using available data, and with a bit of determined accountancy we could probably get the whole way. An examination of budget papers can largely explain the 14 September statement by Defence Minister Richard Marles that, by NATO’s measure, Australia is spending not 2.03 percent of GDP on defence but 2.8 percent. The difference is mostly made up in Defence pensions, which NATO would count as military spending but Australia does not.
Open mike 03/07/2025
Written By: - Date published: 11:07 am, July 3rd, 2025 - No comments Categories: open mike - Tags: Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Step up to the mike …
Secret Service, Canada | Homeland Security Newswire
SECRET SERVICESThe Hole in Canada’s Intelligence System Is ASIS-shaped Published 13 June 2025 A hardy perennial in Ottawa politics is whether Canada should create a foreign intelligence service equivalent to the United States’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) or Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service (SIS, aka MI6).
Daily review 12/06/2025
Daily review 12/06/2025 Written By: notices and features - Date published: 5:30 pm, June 12th, 2025 - No comments Categories: Daily review - Tags: Daily review is also your post. This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Don’t forget to be kind to each other … Related Posts
Daily review 29/05/2025
Daily review 29/05/2025 Written By: notices and features - Date published: 5:30 pm, May 29th, 2025 - No comments Categories: Daily review - Tags: Daily review is also your post. This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Don’t forget to be kind to each other … Related Posts
Daily review 08/05/2025
Daily review is also your post. This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Don’t forget to be kind to each other … Related Posts
The Greens’ Industrial Strategy: Green Jobs Guarantee and Ministry of Green Works
Released on May Day, the following is from the Green Party’s website. ——————————————————————————– New Zealanders should be in control of our economy, our jobs and our future. We don’t need to leave our fate to be decided by international shareholders From the West Coast of the South Island, to Ohakune, to Tokoroa, in the last year alone, we’ve heard the same devastation driven by the same political decisions to let offshore companies decide the fate of regional communities.
Open mike 24/04/2025
Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, April 24th, 2025 - No comments Categories: open mike - Tags: Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Step up to the mike …
Daily review 23/04/2025
Daily review is also your post. This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Don’t forget to be kind to each other … Related Posts
Australia should talk to Washington about buying B-2 stealth bombers
China’s recent naval circumnavigation of Australia has highlighted a pressing need to defend Australia’s air and sea approaches more effectively. Potent as nuclear submarines are, the first Australian boats under AUKUS are at least seven years away. Air power is well-positioned to fill the gap in Australia’s long-range strike capability: It has clear advantages over submarines and ships in terms of its responsiveness in the maritime strike role.
Daily review 10/04/2025
Daily review is also your post. This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Don’t forget to be kind to each other … Related Posts
The threat spectrum | The Strategist
Democracy watch Indonesia’s parliament passed revisions to the country’s military law, which pro-democracy and human rights groups view as a threat to the country’s democracy. One of the revisions seeks to expand the number of civilian agencies accessible to military personnel from 10 to 15, encompassing roles within the Coordinating Ministry for Political, Legal and Security Affairs, the Attorney General’s Office and the Supreme Court.
Open mike 27/03/2025
Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, March 27th, 2025 - No comments Categories: open mike - Tags: Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Step up to the mike …
Daily review 26/03/2025
Daily review is also your post. This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Don’t forget to be kind to each other … Related Posts
The five-domains update | The Strategist
Sea state Australian assembly of the first Multi Ammunition Softkill System (MASS) shipsets for the Royal Australian Navy began this month at Rheinmetall’s Military Vehicle Centre of Excellence in Redbank, Queensland. The ship protection system, which uses launched decoy projectiles to defeat incoming sensor-guided missiles, will be integrated into Australia’s ANZAC-class frigates and Hobart-class destroyers.
Open mike 13/03/2025
Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, March 13th, 2025 - No comments Categories: open mike - Tags: Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Step up to the mike …
The threat spectrum | The Strategist
Information operations Australia has banned cybersecurity software Kaspersky from government use because of risks of espionage, foreign interference and sabotage. The Department of Home Affairs said use of Kaspersky products posed an unacceptable security risk to the Australian government, networks and data. Government agencies have until 1 April 2025 to remove the software from all systems and devices.
The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment: ASIO makes the case for ‘national’ security
Australian Security Intelligence Organisation Director-General Mike Burgess called on Wednesday night for national security that’s truly national. Only through such a broad-ranging and joined approach across governments and society can Australia navigate the deteriorating security outlook to 2030, as assessed by ASIO. Burgess was delivering his sixth public Annual Threat Assessment.
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