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Articles by Manuel Ramos
Survivor Pool Strategy: 4 Things You Need To Know In 2022
This article was written by PoolGenius. The 2022 NFL season has arrived, and with it the annual buzz about NFL survivor pool strategy. At PoolGenius, we've spent over a decade analyzing what it takes to win survivor pools (also known as knockout pools and eliminator pools). Our picks and tools have won over $3.7 million in survivor pool prizes for our subscribers.
UFC Paris Gane vs Tuivasa: 2 Props to Target at Prize Picks
UFC Paris Gane vs Tuivasa: 2 Props to Target at Prize Picks The UFC returns with a Fight Night card that will take place in Paris, France. A number of fights have fallen off this card, leaving the UFC with a number of debut fighters and short-notice replacements. Limiting wild cards and unknown commodities from our lines, we will look to target two fighters with track records we can count on. Charles Jourdain over 70.5 significant strikes.
TJ's Targets: 24 Players I Want in Every Fantasy Football Draft
The vast majority of fantasy football drafts happen in the one or two weeks leading up to the season, but I’ve been drafting since spring. With upwards of 100 drafts under my belt, the following is a list of the players I’ve drafted the most and am still drafting, or have started targeting heavily in recent drafts. In order to discuss a player’s value, I’ve included Underdog ADP but you can get an idea of where my favorite players might go in your league by checking out 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP.
Paulsen's Players: Round-by-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets & Shy-Away Players
This year, I’ve typically been implementing a combination of strategies that include Hero RB, Stud TE, and Late-Round QB. It will usually begin with a running back in the first round, but there are Hero RB candidates available in the second and third rounds this season. I went into great detail on a position-by-position basis in my annual Draft Day Strategery article, but now I’m going to go round-by-round and highlight some targets, strategies, and “shy-away” players to avoid.
Best NFL Futures Odds & Bets for All 32 Teams
A case can be made that tying up funds in NFL futures for four-plus months is a pretty -EV way to handle your money. But let's be honest. You've made more egregious -EV decisions in your life than getting down on the Vikings to make the playoffs in August. We wrapped up our divisional preview series on Move The Line this week, and a ton of work goes into that on my end. I deep dive into all aspects of each roster, along with scheduling anomalies in preparation for each episode.
Perfect Fantasy Football Draft: 10th in a 10-Team ESPN PPR League
Picking at the turn in fantasy drafts is always an interesting spot, and this year is no exception. Because of the level of control you have with back-to-back picks, there are several different ways in which you could go about assembling your team. In this draft, I’m going to be experimenting with the Zero-RB draft strategy. This type of drafting involves loading up on receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks in the earlier rounds, largely ignoring the running back position.
Four Running Backs to Fade in FFPC High Stakes Fantasy Football Drafts
FFPC High-stakes drafts are slightly different than regular leagues. While they are 12 teams with TE Premium scoring, that’s not the biggest difference.
Scott Smith’s UFC 278 Usman vs. Edwards 2 Best Bets
Scott Smith first got involved in MMA in 2001. He's an avid practitioner and black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Ailson "Jucão" Brites. Scott has coached and cornered athletes in Strikeforce, Bellator, PFL, Dana White's Contender Series, and the UFC. Scott brings over 30 years of experience competing in fantasy sports and consistently ranks among the most accurate mock draft analysts every year.
13 Overvalued Defenders in IDP Fantasy Football Leagues
The regular season is in our purview and we’re in the middle of the preseason, which means, drafts are starting, or maybe you’re in the middle of 10 slow drafts right now. No judgment here. More IDP Content: 12 Undervalued IDPs | IDP Primer | Breakout DBs | Breakout LBs | Breakout D Linemen | Rankings: DBs | Rankings DL | Rankings LBs | As we head into draft season, I’m noticing defenders who are being overvalued and undervalued at their draft position.
2022 Houston Texans Fantasy Football Preview
This installment in 4for4's team preview series will take a look at the Houston Texans. The series will cover every team in the NFL, going over all fantasy-relevant players with betting angles, as well.
Scott Smith’s UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz Best Bets
Scott Smith first got involved in MMA in 2001. He's an avid practitioner and black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Ailson "Jucão" Brites. Scott has coached and cornered athletes in Strikeforce, Bellator, PFL, Dana White's Contender Series, and the UFC. Scott brings over 30 years of experience competing in fantasy sports and consistently ranks among the most accurate mock draft analysts every year.
Depth Chart Battle: Kansas City Chiefs Wide Receivers (Fantasy Football)
The 2022 group of receivers for the Chiefs will look a lot different than it has in recent seasons. That’s because this offseason the team traded star receiver, Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. To help replace him, they drafted Western Michigan standout, Skyy Moore in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft and signed free agents JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Perfect Fantasy Football Draft: 1st in a 10-Team ESPN PPR League
The first overall pick in fantasy football is always a great place to be, and this year is no exception. However, unlike most seasons where the top pick is pretty much a consensus, fantasy managers have a crucial decision to make from the very start in 2022. The major downside of picking first is the very long wait in between picks, which could get a little frustrating.
Fantasy Football Debate: Marquise Brown vs. Diontae Johnson
Two fantasy WR2s with very different offensive situations are being selected in the fourth round of 2022 fantasy football drafts. Mike Randle makes the case for Diontae Johnson, while Brendan Darr argues in favor of Marquise Brown. Click here for more 2022 Player Profiles! The Case for Diontae Johnson Mike: Marquise Brown had a nice season for the Ravens in 2021, but to paraphrase the late Lloyd Bentsen, he’s no Diontae Johnson.
Perfect Fantasy Football Draft: 6th in a 12-Team ESPN PPR League
The sixth pick in fantasy drafts this season is a very interesting one. Depending on how the top of the first round goes, there is a multitude of different possibilities for how your team will look. For example, you could take running backs in the first two rounds and then hammer receivers in the middle, or take receivers early and punt on the RB position. This flexibility makes the six spot one of the most fun and dynamic places to draft this year.
UFC Vegas 59 Santos vs Hill: 3 Props to Target at Prize Picks
The UFC is back in Las Vegas with a card that offers little name value. Headlined by Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill as well as the TUF 30 Heavyweight Finale, this card could offer a number of finishes. We have hit nine of our last ten Prize Picks and will target some of the striking lines on this card. UFC Vegas 59 Santos vs Hill: 3 Props to Target at Prize Picks Jamahal Hill over 35.5 Significant Strikes. As always, five-round fights offer an extended period to hit over on lines.
8 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers Primed to Break Out in 2022
We're not playing with last year's stats. Unfortunately, a common leak for the average fantasy football gamer is they often lean too heavily on what happened last season. The football season is short, so we're constantly forced to deal with small sample sizes when it comes to parsing through actionable data versus noise in a 17-game season. More Breakout Candidates: QB | RB | TE At 4for4, we're in the business of forecasting results, and for this article specifically, wide receivers.
Projected Three-Down Linebackers For 2022 IDP Leagues
As defensive schemes remain fluid and complex, the roles of the linebacker are changing as well. More teams are deploying just two linebackers at a time, with some teams deploying single-LB sets. It's vital to know which linebackers won't be leaving the field, or at least less often. Much like the running back position, it's becoming a challenge to identify those three-down guys or bell-cow linebackers who are going to see at least 80% of the snaps.
10 Bounce-Back Fantasy Football Players to Target in 2022
Taking advantage of your league mates' recency bias is a perennial tradition in the fantasy football world, and one I can always get behind. We’re all guilty of associating one bad season with the next regardless of the cause surrounding a player’s dip in production.
A First Look at DraftKings Week 1 NFL DFS Salaries
NFL kickoff is still well over a month away but DraftKings has already released salaries for the Week 1 Main Slate. With the calendar not even turned to August yet, there are obviously a ton of unknowns when it comes to depth chart battles and potential injuries so no one should even think about lineup construction or top values just yet, but it is fun to glance at the slate and see what stands out.
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Fantasy Football Debate: Kyle Pitts vs. Michael Pittman Jr.
Kyle Pitts and Michael Pittman are both being drafted in the middle of the third round of Underdog drafts, giving fantasy managers a tough decision between a potential WR1 or an elite tight end.
Fantasy Football Debate: Josh Jacobs vs. Antonio Gibson
Running backs Josh Jacobs and Antonio Gibson are being drafted as RB22 and RB25, respectively on Underdog Fantasy. In this debate, Tim Talmadge argues for Josh Jacobs while Brandon Niles fights for Antonio Gibson. Click here for more 2022 Player Profiles! The Case for Josh Jacobs Tim: Admittedly the situations Jacobs and Gibson find themselves in are fairly similar. Talented runners that have been productive but can't seem to wrestle away a bellcow type role.
Dynasty Rookie Mock: TE Premium
I previously ran a rookie mock for 4for4 using DLF's new mock draft simulator tool. That draft was a 12-team superflex draft out of the fourth-draft slot. After also conducting a start-up mock for 4for4, I'm going back to the rookie well again. In this draft, I'll be sticking with the 12-team league as that seems to be the most common league size, but this draft will be five-rounds, so we'll see how depleted the talent pool gets with an additional 12 selections.
The Most Predictable Wide Receiver Stats
The goal of this study is to uncover which frequently referenced previous-year stats for wide receivers are reliable indicators of future performance, and which of those stats may be misleading. This article has been updated to reflect data through 2021.
Less is Moore for Rondale in Fantasy Football in 2022
There were plenty of people excited about Rondale Moore coming into the NFL in 2021, and plenty more even more excited about his landing with the Arizona Cardinals. It would be fair to say that his rookie season was slightly underwhelming, both from a "real life" and fantasy perspective. If we're being truthful, 2022 might not be much of an improvement.
2022 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Preview
Last year’s rates should be taken with a grain of salt since OC Brian Callahan previously blitzkrieg'd Cincinnati’s offense for the league’s highest pass play rate (66%) from neutral game script and third-most plays per game (70.7) in Joe Burrow’s first 10 starts before he tore his ACL in 2020.
8 Breakout Linebackers To Target For IDP Leagues
It's easy to draft Darius Leonard and Roquan Smith, but the key and fun part of an IDP draft are the middle-to-late rounds when you're identifying those potential lottery tickets. More Breakout IDP Candidates: Defensive Backs | Defensive Linemen I've identified a few linebackers who are seeing increased roles in their defense, which could lead to more snap volume and tackle opportunities - resulting in fantasy points.
Can Miles Sanders Fly High In 2022 Fantasy Football Leagues?
What a weird 2021 season it was for Miles Sanders. By now, we all know the basic, in-your-face stats: 163 touches, 912 total yards in 12 games, and zero touchdowns. Unfortunately, what tends to happen is we get so stuck on that zero touchdowns bit, we don’t see anything else. We need to remind ourselves that the outcome was an outlier and highly unlikely to repeat itself. Over his first two seasons, Sanders scored a touchdown on 2.9% of his touches.
UFC Vegas 58 dos Anjos vs Fiziev: 3 Props to Target at Prize Picks
UFC Vegas 58 dos Anjos vs Fiziev returns to the Apex with an action-packed lightweight main event. This card features a host of fighters that look to take the fight to the mat where we can take advantage of takedown props. Let’s take a look at the best props to target over at Prize Picks. UFC Vegas 58 dos Anjos vs Fiziev: 3 Props to Target at Prize Picks Jared Vanderaa over 10 minutes Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman are two of the lower-level heavyweights in the UFC.
Underdog ADP Risers & Fallers: July
Underdog best ball drafts are filling at a steadier pace as folks are starting to return to fantasy football in order to take advantage of pre-training camp ADP. Or the fact that both the NBA and NHL have shut it down for the 2022 season could also have degenerates wanting to draft. ADP changes at this point are usually courtesy of the OTA hype, trades, or injury.
16 Tips on How to Draft Under the Influence
It’s pretty safe to say the most exciting and anticipated time of the fantasy football season is draft day. I’ve been playing fantasy football since the 1990s—a time of no smartphones, no apps, and limited fantasy football websites and information. Each of those years, I’ve participated in or hosted a live, in-person draft. In all my years of meeting people who play fantasy football, it blows my mind the number who never took part in a live, in-person draft that wasn’t on a computer screen.
UFC 276 Adesanya vs Cannonier: 3 Props to Target at Prize Picks
UFC 276 Adesanya vs Cannonier comes to Las Vegas with a host of fan favorites on the card. Many of the fights this weekend feature fighters that push the pace in search of finishes. Let’s take a look at the best props to target over at Prize Picks. UFC 276 Adesanya vs Cannonier: 3 Props to Target at Prize Picks Jim Miller over 31.5 Significant Strikes Landed Miller comes into this fight on a two-fight win streak, while Cerrone has struggled to have his hand raised over his last five fights.
14 Contract-Year Fantasy Football Options
There are many good reasons to look at contracts in fantasy football. For example, one of my favorite things to do when evaluating future opportunity for rookies is to look at the contracts of the starters in front of them. For example, Kenneth Walker is on a roster that includes a one-year deal for Rashaad Penny and a voidable 2023 season for Chris Carson (per OverTheCap). Additionally, for those drafting early, it’s important to see who might be a cap casualty heading into the season.
Brandon Aiyuk Could be Fantasy Football Gold in 2022
Brandon Aiyuk is an unquestionable playmaker on an offense that routinely finds ways to move the football, and thus score lots of points. This makes him, in theory, an attractive prospect for any fantasy manager. But after a mixed season in 2021, and some changes coming at the quarterback position, is he a player that fantasy managers must roster?
NASCAR Cup Series Ally 400 Betting Preview and Best Bets
Happy Weekend, race bettors! The Cup Series heads to the home of country music to tackle the 1.33-mile Nashville Superspeedway. It's going to be boiling lava hot on Sunday, and we expect there to be some real excitement on the flat, concrete oval. There are still lingering concerns over the durability of the tires that will be used, and restarts are bonkers. Last year at Nashville, we saw Kyle Larson absolutely dominate. He led 264 out of 300 laps and turned 133 fastest laps.
Underdog Advance Rates: Wide Receivers
Drafting wide receivers is essentially the meat-and-potatoes portion of drafting in best ball leagues. It makes sense on a basic level; wide receivers accounted for 59% of all targets in 2021. In Underdog leagues, 0.5 points are rewarded for each reception, and at least three wide receivers are rostered on best ball teams each week, with a fourth potentially in the flex spot.
How Valuable is Damien Harris for Fantasy Football in 2022?
Patriots running backs have always been confusing for fantasy football. From the BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Stevan Ridley pairing in the early 2010s to a weird Sony Michel/Rex Burkhead/James White three-headed “monster” later on in the decade, messy committees have dominated the running back room in New England for over 10 years. This year does not present any break from that trend, as the Patriots running back depth chart is once again a confounding state of affairs.
5 Running Backs Who Had Outlier Touchdown Seasons in 2021
In part one of this series, I uncovered four touchdown outliers at the quarterback position using my expected touchdown model. The introduction in that article lays out the entire methodology for this study but the basic premise is simple—we can find out who scored touchdowns above or below expectation based on the historical touchdown rates for the starting field position of every play. Of course, every play type and each position will have a different expectation.
Will 2022 Be A.J. Dillon's Fantasy Football Breakout Season?
A.J. Dillon didn't see much playing time as a rookie but that all changed in his second year. When Jamaal Williams signed with the Lions, it opened the door for Dillon to assume the No. 2 role behind Aaron Jones and he performed magnificently. He finished the 2021 campaign with over 1,100 total and 7 touchdowns. With the loss of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the Packers' offense is entering unknown territory.
Tom Brady: The Perfect Fantasy Football Mid-Round QB
Tom Brady needs no introduction. After a crazy offseason where he retired and then unretired, the GOAT is officially back for his 23rd (!) NFL season. He is looking to build off a phenomenal 2021 output, where he threw for a league-high 5,316 passing yards and 43 touchdowns en route to an overall QB3 finish. Current Underdog ADP shows Brady being drafted in the middle of the 7th round as the QB9, which I think is the perfect spot for him to go.
USFL Week 10: Best Bets
This is the end, my friends. It is Week 10 of the USFL regular season and thus, the end of this column. We have had some great moments and look to end the season on a positive note. Through nine weeks, the picks in this weekly column are 17-11 (+2.14 units). We have battled juice the majority of the season, and the lack of player props has been a huge loss for bettors. That said, we have one more week to handle four meaningless games because the playoffs are set.
2022 Offensive Line Rankings: 22-11
As I’m sure you have hypothesized in the past, the play of a team’s offensive line impacts the fantasy points that each NFL team can produce, and now we have statistical proof. By using the knowledge of good and bad units, we can better attack (or avoid) skill position players on a given team; another edge we can use against our league mates. With that caveat understood, it’s time to figure out exactly where a team’s offensive line compares to the rest of the league.
8 Ways to Keep Owners Engaged in Your Fantasy Football League
Running a fantasy football league can be fun, but also challenging. The goal is for your league to run smoothly enough so it doesn’t take up a lot of your personal time. After all, as life goes on, spouses and kids start to take up more of your precious hours, and that likely means that time is taken from your fantasy football world. Whether you have the time or not, running a league does require some work to make it successful.
12 Last-Place Punishments for Your Fantasy League
Year after year, those who play and/or run fantasy football leagues are always looking for different ways to make their league unique and special. As more and more people play in multiple leagues, this becomes especially true. Having a league you run stand out among the rest is always a challenge. I think one of the more interesting things a league can do is give some attention to the team that finishes in last place.
An Intro to Best Ball Leagues: Prizes, Rules & Basic Strategy
What are Best Ball Draft-Only Leagues? Best ball is a fantasy football format where league managers draft their team but there is no in-season management—no waiver wire, no trades, no setting lineups. Instead, your highest-scoring players are optimized to form your starting lineup. Leagues are decided by cumulative season points rather than head-to-head matchups.
Is It Too Late to Target Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Fantasy Football?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, now entering his third season, has been mostly written off by the fantasy football community. Once heralded as a draft prospect with top-five potential, CEH has now become something of a punch line, a cautionary tale of entrusting landing spot over talent. The result of two disappointing seasons is a 2022 ranking where he’s not even viewed as an RB2 anymore. He finds himself in that RB28-30 range and for some, he’s found his way onto “do not draft” lists entirely.
Which Teams Invested in the Offensive Line in 2022?
The Bengals (+$20.6 million) added guard Alex Cappa, tackle La’el Collins, and guard/center Ted Karras, who will add a lot of talent and experience to a unit that was decent in the run (15th in ALY) but brutal in pass protection (31st in ASR). They’ll join Jonah Williams to form a solid core. This is good news for Joe Mixon and the passing attack. The Dolphins (+$17.7 million) were 30th in ALY and 19th in ASR, so they had some work to do this offseason.
Underdog Rankings, Tools, and Draft Strategy
Here you will find everything Underdog related, with links to our tools, guides, strategy bibles, and articles on how to make the most of all contests on Underdog Fantasy. Underdog Rankings This tool features 4for4's Top 250 rankings for Underdog Best Ball tournaments and is manually curated by John Daigle using John Paulsen's projections, along with some of the rest of our staff's research.
The Ultimate Underdog Best Ball Mania 3 Draft Guide
With 4for4’s suite of Underdog tools, data from Best Ball Mania 1 and 2 has helped formulate a plan for this year’s $10 million Best Ball Mania 3. Those basics have been laid out in the six-part Best Ball Mania Bible. After logging 20 drafts in May (out of a possible 150), I will outline my position-by-position plan for the rest of draft season along with my favorite targets at each position and my general thoughts on how to attack Best Ball Mania 3.
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