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Articles by Manus Clancy
Game of Jenga Continues for Stocks, Commercial Real Estate
Lending & Financial Services Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW As Pieces of the Foundation Economic Foundation Get Pulled Out, US Equities and CRE Still Defying Gravity By Manus Clancy, Head of Data Strategy Since the War in Iran began in late February, the US economy and the bond markets have taken some stiff uppercuts.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: A Lion from Start to Finish—March 2026 Tests Market Resilience
Brokers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW Before I get to this month’s commentary, a quick shameless plug (as I like to call them on our podcast).
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Systemic Risk Is the Dog That Never Hunts | LightBox
Once bitten, twice shy. For those riddling your one-time, 1980’s MTV-addicted 1980’s brain, I’ll save you some time. That was Great White. Not Whitesnake. Not Poison. Late Boomers and Gen X, keep your hair bands straight. We’ll get to that connection in a moment, but first the data and the market sentiment. Even though U.S. equity markets remained near their all-time highs as of late February, there are potholes in the U.S. bull market narrative everywhere at the end of February.
Rocky End of January Lifts Volatility, Investor Jitters | LightBox
Brokers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW It was the worst of times, it was the worst of times. Of course that is hyperbole, especially considering that over the last 20 years we’ve had to endure the Great Financial Crisis, the COVID pandemic, 9% inflation, and the threat of a run on banks in 2023. But the end of January saw several headlines that raised jitters to their highest level in months.
Re-Assessing the Commercial Real Estate Market: Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?
Investors have long been accustomed to hearing the phrase “it’s different this time.” The comment that is meant to comfort nervous investors as markets reach new highs often means ‘hold on to your wallet’ for seasoned investors. As we march into 2026, equity investors, once again, are wondering if the recent run up in equity prices signals a new round of irrational exuberance. Or might it truly be different this time? Certainly, the numbers don’t lie.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Investors Head into the New Year with Hopes, Dreams, and Plenty of Uncertainty | LightBox
Brokers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW If markets closed 2025 on strong footing, why does investor sentiment feel so uneasy heading into 2026?
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: November’s Markets Stalled While the CRE Market Refused to Blink | LightBox
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy November delivered the kind of mixed economic signals that leave investors staring at their dashboards, wondering which way the road bends next. Job market worries kept a lid on investor optimism. Inflation eased but not enough to spark a breakout.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Is CRE Quietly Winning While Everyone Watches the Fed? | LightBox
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy Bullish? Bearish? It didn’t matter which side of the investment ledger you were on, there was something for you in October. Let’s start with the bull case for investors in October. There were plenty of headlines to keep investors optimistic. First up was a cooler-than-expected CPI report.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: CRE Rides the Tailwinds While Risks Build | LightBox
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy September is usually Wall Street’s cruelest month, and October is notorious for volatility. After a summer of record highs, investors entered September bracing for turbulence.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Manus Clancy on What’s Ahead for CRE Through Year-End | LightBox
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy A growing divergence between the equity and bond markets in August left market watchers torn regarding what comes next for the U.S. economy.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: With Data Softening in July, Is the Market Ready for a Pull Back? | LightBox
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy To the delight of both equity investors and CRE pros, May, June, and the first half of July defied analysts’ forecasts as inflation remained below expectations.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Full Steam Ahead for Markets in June | LightBox
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy Honestly, who saw this coming in April? It feels like only last night that we were talking about the mother of all sell offs—one that would take the markets into the worst bear market ever—or at least since 2008.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Navigating Market Uncertainty, Consumer Trends, and CRE Investment Risks | LightBox
By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy In today’s commercial real estate landscape, where unpredictability has become the only constant, it’s hard not to feel like we’re living in a satire of our own. In 1964, director Stanley Kubrick released Dr. Strangelove, a dark comedy/political satire starring Peter Sellers. The cult classic was parody of living under the stress of the Cold War between the U.S. and USSR.
Market Talk: Whiplash Markets and the Fragile Pillars of CRE | LightBox
Brokers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy We’re living through a market moment where sentiment can shift on a dime—sometimes triggered by nothing more than a tweet or a news chyron.
Market Talk: Tariff Truce with China—A Shot in the Arm for CRE, or Just a Sugar High? | LightBox
Brokers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy As we mentioned on last week’s LightBox CRE Weekly Digest podcast, the market went from oversold to overbought before you could say ‘Bob’s your uncle.” For those that have read previous blogs and/or listened to the weekly podcasts, we were believers that the market reaction was too severe.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Markets Rebound—Can it Last? | LightBox
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy Last month, we noted that March ended with investors on tenterhooks. U.S. stocks were off sharply in March leading to a great deal of investor angst. Little did we know at the time that the unease would get considerably worse before it got better.
LightBox Market Talk: The 10-Year Is at 4.33%—Here’s What That Really Means for CRE | LightBox
Brokers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy If you blinked last week, you probably missed a few wild swings in the bond market. After spiking north of 4.5%, the 10-year Treasury yield has eased back down to around 4.33%— as of press time—but don’t mistake that for calm.
March Jobs Data in a World of Trade Tension
Brokers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy The March 2025 labor reports dropped last week and… it’s a tale of two tapes. On one side, job growth is punching above its weight class. On the other, we are starting to see the subtle creaks of employer caution seep into the cracks.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: CRE Remains Safe Harbor During Tariff-Induced Storm—Will It Continue? | LightBox
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy Investors were broadly hammered in March, as the month known for “coming in like a lion and going out like a lamb” exited more like a saber-toothed tiger. The U.S. stock market was turbulent in March with equities suffering their worst month since late 2022, and the Nasdaq down 12% year-to-date.
Pulling Back the Lens: The Balance of Book Smarts and Street Smarts in CRE
Brokers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy I recently had the opportunity to guest lecture at a Clemson real estate class, where I shared insights on the importance of balancing book smarts with street smarts in commercial real estate (CRE).
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Lower Rates Buoy CRE Market but Questions Abound
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy February was a turbulent month for the financial markets. U.S. stocks posted losses, with the Nasdaq recording its biggest monthly drop in nearly a year. The Nasdaq 100 saw several selloffs of more than 1% and a few of more than 2%.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: January Surprises Make for Unusual Start to the New Year
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy During the election campaign of 2024, President Trump promised that, if elected, he would begin disrupting Washington immediately upon taking office. The new administration was true to its word.
Chicago— Whose Kind of Town for Office? | LightBox
Brokers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy Do you remember when Frank Sinatra made ‘Chicago (My Kind of Town)’ a staple of his tours? January brought renewed interest in the Chicago office market after several high-profile sales we announced— again, coming with sizable discounts.
January is Store Closing Month – 2025 Doesn’t Deviate | LightBox
Brokers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy Historically, January has been a heavy month for retail store closings. The timing makes sense. Retailers try to squeeze one more season of holiday sales before shutting down underperforming stores.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Bond Markets Throw Cold Water on Fed 50-Basis Point Rate Cut
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW By: Head of Data Strategy at LightBox, Manus Clancy The big headline in September was the 50-basis point Fed rate cut. The hot take for the bond markets was an immediate dip in long-dated Treasury yields. The dip—which turned out to be the culmination of a four month decline for Treasury yields—gave a big psychological lift to the commercial real estate (CRE) market.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: CRE Market Poised for a Better-Than-Expected Q4
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW Manus Clancy is head of data strategy at LightBox U.S. investors survived a near-death-experience in early August, but after a terrifying jump in volatility, the markets rebounded and managed to end the month on an upbeat note. The August panic started with the release of dismal July employment numbers and an uptick in interest rates in Japan.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Signs of Hope Dot CRE Landscape Even as Headlines Weigh on Market
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW Manus Clancy is head of data strategy at LightBox One of the big commercial real estate (CRE) headlines in May came from the fact that a big CMBS loan was resolved with a loss that included a write down of part of the AAA-rated class. The loss was the first of its kind since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and came with warnings that the end is near for CRE.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: The Push Continues for CRE Market | LightBox
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW Higher CPI and PPI Delay Rate Cuts but Big Deals Provide Signs of Hope Back in December, many market analysts were expecting that the Fed would have delivered at least one rate cut by now and that the beginning of a CRE rebound would be well on its way. The data coming out of the U.S. economy since the beginning of the year put several wrinkles in those expectations.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: CRE Pros Try to Answer the $64,000 Question – When Will CRE Relaunch? | LightBox
Manus Clancy is head of data strategy at LightBox The question on every CRE professional’s mind as we reach the end of Q1 2024 is ‘when will the market return to normal.’ As one market watcher noted earlier this month, ‘we’ve been pushing on a string since June 2022. That’s a long time to be grinding it out.’ We couldn’t agree more. Nearly 24 months is a long time to be stuck in first gear and everyone from lenders to brokers to property owners are clamoring for a return to the normalcy of 2019.
LightBox CRE Monthly Commentary: Glass Half Full or Half Empty?
Appraisers Gain market-moving insights from industry experts. We will not share your data. View our Privacy Policy. SUBSCRIBE NOW Manus Clancy is Head of Data Strategy at LightBox For many in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and Great Plains states, the month of February is among the worst when it comes to quality of life. Cold temperatures, boatloads of snow, and short days can create misery for denizens of those regions.
Could Re-Assessments Be a Balm For Office Owners?
Manus Clancy is Head of Data Strategy at LightBox Positive headlines for the US office market have been as elusive as a Niners fan in a Travis Kelce jersey lately. Investors have been reminded day in, day out of the problems with the sector by dismal sales comps and news of banks taking big losses on their CRE books. Some offices have sold for 60% or more below prices from the last 10 years.
CMBS Delinquency Rate Falls Slightly to Close 2023, Office Delinquency Rate Posts Rare Dip
Disclaimer: This text is an excerpt from Trepp's Delinquency Report. To access the full analysis of the report, click here. The Trepp CMBS Delinquency rate fell modestly again in December 2023. Overall, the delinquency rate fell seven basis points to 4.51%. In the heavily watched office segment, delinquencies fell for the first time in several months. The office delinquency rate dropped 26 basis points to 5.82%.
Twelve Days of CMBS-mas: Trepp's CRE & CMBS Wishlist for 2024
We didn't have the power to give CMBS investors and CRE property owners and lenders what they wanted in 2023, nor what they might want in 2024, but if we did, here would be our 12 days of Christmas gifts. To be sure, CMBS longs would be happy to get these in their stockings, but CMBX shorts and distressed asset buyers will likely look at the list as akin to 12 days of coal (in a state where gas stoves and other devices have been outlawed).
CMBS Delinquency Rate Dips in November 2023, but Office Delinquency Rate Tops 6%
Disclaimer: This text is an excerpt from Trepp's Delinquency Report. To access the full analysis of the report, click here. The Trepp CMBS Delinquency rate fell modestly in November 2023, but as with the October report, there were a lot of moving pieces. Overall, the delinquency rate fell five basis points in November to 4.58%.
CMBS Delinquency Rate Moves Higher Again in October 2023, Hits New Post-COVID Peak
Disclaimer: This text is an excerpt from Trepp's Delinquency Report. To access the full analysis of the report, click here. The Trepp CMBS Delinquency rate moved higher again in October 2023, but there were a lot of moving pieces in the latest report. Overall, the delinquency rate rose 24 basis points in October to 4.63%. That is the highest reading since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
CMBS Delinquency Rate Climbs in September 2023; No Respite for Office, Rate Approaches Post-COVID Peak
Disclaimer: This text is an excerpt from Trepp's Delinquency Report. To access the full analysis of the report, click here. After a modest improvement in the delinquency rate in August 2023, the Trepp CMBS Delinquency rate moved higher again in September. The uptick in September was due to another sharp increase in the office delinquency rate. All other major property types saw only modest moves. Overall, the delinquency rate rose 14 basis points to 4.39%.
CMBS Delinquency Rate Dips in August 2023; Hotel Rate Improvement Pulls Headline Number Lower; Office Cracks 5%
Disclaimer: This text is an excerpt from Trepp's Delinquency Report. To access the full analysis of the report, click here. The commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market saw a modest reprieve from surging delinquencies in August as an improvement in the hotel market helped pull the headline number lower. However, it may be too early to start popping corks... For four of the five major commercial real estate (CRE) property types, the rate inched up in August.
CMBS Remittance Comments Show Some Signs of Optimism for Malls
For years, headlines and results for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) mall loans have been consistently negative. However, a glimmer of hope has emerged recently with some positive indicators appearing within servicer watchlist and special servicer comments. That is because many of those loans are ones for which borrowers are in the process of finalizing extension options that are embedded in the loan. However, now borrowers are more and more foregoing those extension options.
CMBS Delinquency Rate Tops 4% in July 2023; Office, Lodging Delinquencies Increase Again
« View All Posts CMBS | CMBS Delinquencies | CMBS Delinquency Rate | CMBS 2.0 | CMBS 1.0 | CMBS News Print/Save as PDF Disclaimer: This text is an excerpt from Trepp's Delinquency Report. To access the full analysis of the report, click here. While the rest of the US economy has seen relief in terms of higher equity prices, better-than-expected corporate earnings, and falling inflation numbers, the commercial real estate (CRE) market continues to be left behind.
CMBS Delinquency Rate Nears 4% in June 2023; Office Delinquencies Increase Again
« View All Posts CMBS | CMBS Delinquencies | CMBS Delinquency Rate | CMBS 2.0 | CMBS 1.0 | CMBS News Print/Save as PDF Disclaimer: This text is an excerpt from Trepp's Delinquency Report. To access the full analysis of the report, click here. In May 2023, the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market saw a noticeable uptick in delinquencies with the headline number hitting its highest rate in 14 months.
TreppTalk
For those who attended CRE Finance Council's June 2023 conference, Trepp and Commercial Real Estate Direct released The Mid-Year 2023 Magazine. If you could not make the trip to New York City this year and would like a copy, please access and download the full magazine here. At this year’s CREFC, there was both lively and ominous discussion with a wide range of market participants on the current state of CRE finance.
CREFC Confidential June 2023: Optimism Hard to Find in a Changing Landscape
Print/Save as PDF For those who attended CRE Finance Council's June 2023 conference, Trepp and Commercial Real Estate Direct released The Mid-Year 2023 Magazine. If you could not make the trip to New York City this year and would like a copy, please access and download the full magazine here. At this year’s CREFC, there was both lively and ominous discussion with a wide range of market participants on the current state of CRE finance.
CMBS Delinquency Rate Shoots Up in May 2023 - Biggest Jump Since June 2020: Overall Rate Hits 14-Month High
« View All Posts CMBS | CMBS Delinquencies | CMBS Delinquency Rate | CMBS 2.0 | CMBS 1.0 | CMBS News Print/Save as PDF Disclaimer: This text is an excerpt from Trepp's Delinquency Report. To access the full analysis of the report, click here. CMBS investors and market participants have been waiting for months for delinquencies to spike. Since last summer, higher rates and lagging office demand have led to expectations of substantially higher delinquency levels.
Reflecting on Banking Crises - The Playbook: Then and Now
« View All Posts Commercial Real Estate | Community Banks | Regional Banks | Banks | Economy | Bank CRE Lending | Bank Loan Portfolios | Financial Crisis Print/Save as PDF For financial market participants old enough to remember the sitcom Frasier, the banking crisis of 2008 to 2010 remains a painful memory. That goes double for anyone in the financial markets, real estate, or banking markets. More than 500 banks failed as a result, overwhelmed by weak underwriting practices and large losses.
Cap Rates on Recent Sales Continue to Hover Around 4% of 2021 NOI
« View All Posts CMBS | Multifamily Loans | Multifamily Real Estate | Cap Rates | CRE | Commercial Real Estate Finance | NOI Print/Save as PDF A survey of recent multifamily sales done by Trepp in September revealed that implied cap rates continued to hover at just under 4% of 2021 NOI last month. Since the run-up in interest rates over the last six months, Trepp analysts have been keeping an eye on cap rates to see if they have kept pace with the run-up in Treasury yields since February.
Multifamily Occupancy Analysis: Areas of Concern Starting to Appear in Major US Markets
Let's start with the obvious. The multifamily housing market in the U.S. is not facing the same problems that the market has seen in the retail and hotel spaces. For the latter two property types, we have seen an almost across-the-board unraveling of those segments. That being said, Trepp has started to see signs of "fraying" in the apartment segment in some major U.S. markets.
2021 CMBS Delinquency Rates
Source: Trepp The Trepp CMBS delinquency rate continued to retreat during the first month of the new year, though there are indications that the improvement could be showing signs of a reversal. After two huge jumps in May and June, the rate has now declined for seven consecutive months. The Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate in January was 7.6 percent, a decline of 23 basis points from the December number.
CMBX 12 Spotlight: If Shorting Office is Your Thing
Manus Clancy Written on June 04, 2020 in CMBS , Office Real Estate , CRE , CMBX , CMBX Spreads , COVID-19 With the recent volatility over the last few months stemming from COVID-19, new interest has emerged over CMBX as a way to take positions on U.S. commercial real estate. Background on CMBX CMBX is a set of indexes administered by Markit Partners. There are 13 separate indexes – the first five were launched prior to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.
WeWork: So Now What? Coworking Giant's CMBS Exposure Up To $5.6 Billion
We've received many inbound requests to refresh our CMBS exposure summary for WeWork, and each time we've been somewhat surprised with the co-sharing giant’s growing presence in newly-issued securitized transactions. This is especially the case given the amount of scrutiny following the firm’s pulled IPO debacle and a rather steep valuation cut.
2020 CMBS Delinquency Rates
Source: Trepp The Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate dropped sharply in January as heavy new issuance continued to add performing supply to the denominator and defaulted legacy loans were resolved away. The January reading is 2.1 percent, a decline of 20 basis points, and another new post-crisis low. The delinquency rate started to fall after June 2017 when CMBS delinquencies totaled 5.8 percent. Since then, the rate has fallen in 26 of the last 31 months.
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