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Articles by Marcus Colla
Democracies in glass houses
At the heart of Jan-Werner Müller’s thought-provoking new book (Opens in new window) on “the architecture of democratic spaces” sits a curious but remarkable citation from John Quincy Adams, the sixth President of the United States.
AfD: The far-right earthquake in Saxony-Anhalt
Home to only about two million inhabitants, the German state of Saxony-Anhalt is not a place that typically attracts global headlines. But when the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party won some 44% of votes in Sunday’s elections there (Opens in new window), political observers across the world were forced to take notice. It is a remarkable set of events. In Germany the radical right stands on the verge of power for the first time in the country’s post-war history.
Sir Keir Starmer and the ghosts of Europe
For the best part of a decade, British politics was convulsed by madness. Prime minister after prime minister was consumed by the impossibility of taming the visceral political energies released by the 2016 “Brexit” referendum. Political language became possessed of a certain acridity and brutality. For a while, even the British constitution itself, proudly buttressed and sustained by its complex tissue of arcane conventions, seemed to groan under the political strain.
In the mirror of the future
Today’s world, argues Odd Arne Westad in The Coming Storm, is one “where multiple Great Powers” have come to “jostle for supremacy”. It is a world driven by conflicting interests and marked by fragile and ever-shifting alliances and friendships. Mistrust and fear at the geopolitical level are exacerbated by the disorienting and accelerating effects of new technologies, with the upshot that horizons of decision-making are exceedingly narrow – and seemingly narrowing further.
The dilemmas of German defence
Defence was long the laggard among Western European budgets. By the early 2010s, the “peace dividend” of the post–Cold War era had coupled with crushing austerity policies to take an especially heavy toll. Amid the belt-tightening that accompanied the Eurozone crisis of those years, Germany cut its defence budget by some €8.3 billion. Many other countries did something similar. At its lowest point, in 2014, defence spending among EU members fell to just 1.1% of GDP.
In defence of darkness
Realists tend not to be born apologists. So, it is perhaps telling that Patrick Porter’s punchy, “bite-sized defence of realism”, How to Survive a Hostile World,is strewn with qualifications and disarming gestures. Yes, he concedes, realism as a framework for understanding international relations is a refuge of the pessimist. And yes, realismhas been tainted by a reputation for cynicism, unscrupulousness, aggression, and violence.
How autocrats and tech billionaires are disintegrating history
There is a remarkable scene in L’heure des prédateurs (The Hour of the Predator) in which Giuliano da Empoli, the Swiss-Italian political essayist, describes a meeting of European politicians with former US President Joe Biden on the margins of a UN General Assembly.Straddling the tragic and the comic, this “last Atlantic president, the last Cold War fighter, the last internationalist”, cuts the figure of “a tired, lingering grandfather”: “All are thinking about what comes next, but he’s...
New chancellor, new challenges - same old Germany?
“I never thought I’d have to say something like that on a TV program.”. So sighed Friedrich Merz, Germany’s prospective next Chancellor, in a post-election discussion last night.
The miseries of Germany’s navel-gazing
Just a handful of days shy of a federal election, a dark mood has engulfed Germany. The country has entered its third year of recession. Global events have put paid to the old cliché that stability and success depend on “security from America, gas from Russia, and exports to China”. The extreme-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has established itself as the country’s second largest.
The claustrophobia of German politics
Its inevitability did not make it any less shocking.
Periodization and Time in History: The Global View
Date: July 21, 2025 to July 23, 2025 Location: Berlin, Freie Universität, Friedrich-Meinecke-Institute's research area of global history Periodization and Time in History: The Global View How we divide up time through historical periodization and narrative is a profoundly political and often hotly contested knowledge practice: From eras and epochs, to revolutionary ‘turning points’ and civilizational decline and fall, historical imagination has been and still is a primary political arena.
The God in the rubble
Book review: Out of the Darkness: The Germans 1942–2022, by Frank Trentmann(Allen Lane, 2023) On the eve of the First World War, the German theologian Ernst Troeltsch reflected on the terror of a world in which there no longer existed any “unchangeable code of conscience”.Troeltsch was, of course, neither the first nor last thinker to lament the fading hold of traditional values in the face of modernity’s destructive march.What set him apart was that he took as his target nothing less than...
The powerlessness of the powerful
The advent of 2024 in Europe was heralded by the cries of doom prophets. Recessions, strikes, street protests, lingering inflation, the thunderous echoes of conflict in the Middle East and – let us not forget – the heavy burden of a seemingly intractable war in Ukraine: to the pessimistic mind, these look like the outriders of an impending political apocalypse.
Tales from the magic circle
Book review: Beauty is in the Street: Protest and Counterculture in Post-War Europe by Joachim C. Häberlen (Allen Lane, 2023) By chance, the legendary Italian intellectual Umberto Eco found himself in Eastern Europe just as 1968’s wave of revolts was erupting on both sides of the Iron Curtain. Noting the striking contrasts withthe student-led rebellions taking place in his home country, Eco penned a report for an Italian magazine on what he had witnessed on the streets of Prague and Warsaw.
Left behind: Sahra Wagenknecht’s new populism
She is one of Germany’s most recognised and popular politicians. And yet, Sahra Wagenknecht has never held a ministry, never been the chair of a party, and has spent her career in an outfit that has attracted only five to ten per cent of the national vote. On paper, she should be a marginal figure.
1989: THE CHRONOPOLITICS OF REVOLUTION
A failed effort at “reform from above” or a dramatic reassertion of “people power”? Almost thirty-five years on, studies of the Revolutions of 1989 continue to be framed by these two polarities. However, this historiographical focus has meant that scholars have often overlooked the actual content and character of protest itself.
Friedrich Merz and the fall of the “Berlin firewall”
To view it charitably, one might have forgiven Friedrich Merz for a brief lapse of judgment. But to view it critically, the comment last month by Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader confirmed a worrying pattern. Speaking at an event in Bavaria, Merz described his party – in opposition since the elections of September 2021 – as an “Alternative for Germany with substance”.
Mikhail Gorbachev: The Last Revolutionary
Ambitious Soviet reformer whose political career was defined by “perestroika”.
Mikhail Gorbachev: The last revolutionary
Upon becoming General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in March 1985, Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev presented himself as the consummate leader: a party man, a charmer, a thinker, a pragmatist, a problem-solver. Under his stewardship, the Soviet Union would be reformed and reinvigorated. Instead, it disappeared.
Six months of war in Ukraine: Europe’s life and fate
For the political analyst, it is often difficult to identify whether the decisions made by powerful actors are borne of a sense of strength or out of weakness. In this respect, the sinister game that Vladimir Putin is playing with Europe’s gas supplies is a case study par excellence.
Commentary: Why does Turkey want to play mediator between Russia and Ukraine?
CAMBRIDGE: Facing the media on the ground in Bucha on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reflected sombrely on the progress of talks between Ukraine and Russia: “It is very difficult to talk when you see what they have done here.” The talks – which begun end-March in Istanbul – prefaced Russia’s apparent withdrawal of troops from several regions in Ukraine’s north.
Turkey plays the dance of the go-betweens in Ukraine war
Facing the media on the ground in Bucha on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reflected sombrely on the progress of talks between Ukraine and Russia. “It is very difficult to talk when you see what they have done here.” The talks – tentatively begun last week in Istanbul – prefaced Russia’s apparent withdrawal of troops from several regions in Ukraine’s north.
The revenge of the Scholzomat
“Today is essentially Christmas and a birthday in one for you, and yet you seem about as euphoric as an English butler at teatime,” remarked an astonished television interviewer to Olaf Scholz on the evening of his election as mayor of Hamburg in 2011. It was a characteristic performance by the man known as the “Scholzomat” for his mechanical, austere and laconic communication style. Ten years later, and Scholz’ style has gained not a jot of elan.
Markets and resilience in the face of economic coercion
Australia’s stern statement at a World Trade Organisation review of China’s trade policy last month emphasised that Beijing’s trade disruptive measures may be targeted at Australia, but present a serious problem for all. The implications, the statement said, “go beyond their impact on Australian exporters … and undermine … the multilateral trading system on which all WTO Members rely”.
Germany and Europe: “Ampel” time for reform
It’s coalition time in Germany. At the 26 September election, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), led by the current Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, emerged as the largest party, with 25.7 per cent of the vote. Everything now points to a Scholz-led government, in combination with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens: a so-called Ampel (traffic light) coalition, named after the parties’ colours of red, yellow and green.
Economic diplomacy: Japan’s new PM joins the (supply) chain gang
Securing the decks For a country renowned for churning through ministers, perhaps the most remarkable thing about Japan’s new ministry under freshly appointed leader Fumio Kishida is that it is getting a fresh finance minister for the first time in nine years. The departure of 81-year-old veteran politician Taro Aso, a former prime minister as well as the country’s longest serving finance minister, is a testament to the unusual stability that the Shinzo Abe-era brought back to Japan’s leadership.
Yemen: the search for leverage after Afghanistan
Concerns are growing about the ramifications of the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The ripple effects of the pull-out and its urgent consequences have bolstered Islamist ambitions – not only in Afghanistan but beyond. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned of a “real danger (that) terrorist groups may feel enthusiastic about what happened and have ambitions beyond what they thought a few months ago”.
With Biden’s lukewarm diplomacy, North Korea runs hot and cold
North Korea is again following its old playbook, alternating between extending an olive branch or thorns, diplomacy or missile tests, all with the aim to extract concessions from the United States and South Korea. After South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in proposed to declare an end to the Korean War in his address at the United Nations General Assembly, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un, praised Moon’s offer as an “admirable idea”.
State of mind: How Australians see the pandemic and efforts to help
The Australian public are rightly proud of their efforts to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. Almost all Australians – 95% – believe Australia has handled the pandemic well, according to new Lowy Institute polling released today. This is for good reason. Despite the slow vaccine rollout, Australia has consistently ranked as one of the best performers in the world. And Australians see our efforts as miles ahead of most other countries.
Accountability is the path to better governance in PNG
When we look at progress in decentralisation in Papua New Guinea over the last 20 years – the sole continuous and overriding policy priority of successive governments – many challenges remain to improve downstream service delivery. Programming for “social accountability” shifts the focus from governmentto governance. It’s about the difficult stuff, even it’s often referred to as the soft stuff – relationships, trust and legitimacy.
Ordinary Nazis
Book review: Robert Gellately, Hitler’s True Believers: How Ordinary People Became Nazis (Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2020) In the end, it was all about The Idea. Thus, the historian Robert Gellately explains why so many Germans passionately attached themselves to National Socialism.
An interim government would bring ruin to Afghanistan
The Afghan government is fighting for survival as external and internal actors exploit its weaknesses in preparation for a US exit. The latest US initiatives to bring “a responsible end” to the Afghan war will likely have the opposite effect, pushing the Afghan government closer to a knife’s edge.
Expanding the CPTPP: A form guide to prospective members
In February, the United Kingdom became the first nation to formally apply to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the 11 country free trade deal spanning Asia and the Pacific. But the UK isn’t the only horse in the race. So far, eight different countries have telegraphed some kind of interest in joining the CPTPP.
Crushing dissent in a new paranoid India
The signs were always there. With a thumping majority in parliament, a nonexistent opposition and diminishing institutions, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government had the potential to proceed down the dangerous and desperate path of intolerance. Two months of sustained pressure from a grassroots protest movement by farmers has unsurprisingly led to the Modi government turning to its authoritarian playbook.
Vaccine nationalism: Rich nations must also care for the poor
While the Covid-19 pandemic proved to be the perilous equaliser of humankind, regardless of race and nationality, the vaccine for it however revealed the disturbing inequality between the advanced and developing economies. In a speech last month, the Director-General of the World Health Organisation Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned of the unequal access to vaccines: More than 39 million doses of vaccine have now been administered in at least 49 higher-income countries.
Pacific development outlook for 2021
Pacific nations have mostly escaped the heavy death toll and hospital bed shortages faced by Western countries battling Covid-19, but the pandemic has dealt a disproportionately severe blow to the region’s economic ambitions. But with the rollout of vaccines and economic recovery in sight in China and the West – the main trading partners of the Pacific – their recovery could have a positive impact on the region.
Lowy Institute Live event: The Biden era with David Ignatius and Amy Walter
Two of America’s most influential and respected commentators, David Ignatius of The Washington Post and Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report, joined Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove for this conversation on the Biden administration, American unity and recovery after the Trump administration and Covid-19, and the early indications of President Biden’s international policies.
Germany’s ordinary new world
In extraordinary times, ordinariness can be a virtue. That, in any case, is the hope of Armin Laschet, who was elected as the new leader of Germany’s largest party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), on 22 January. A moderate Catholic from Aachen, Germany’s westernmost city, Laschet captured the party leadership with a deliberately uninspiring program of pragmatism and competence.
The coup in Myanmar: What do we know?
On 1 February, Myanmar’s armed forces (or Tatmadaw) declared a one-year state of emergency, arrested State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and detained more than 50 politicians and activists. It had been just ten years since the former military regime permitted the transition to a “disciplined democracy”.
The Spectre of the Present: Time, Presentism and the Writing of Contemporary History
Information Contemporary European History , Volume 30 , Issue 1 , February 2021 , pp. 124 - 135 Copyright Copyright © The Author(s), 2021.
The vanishing hegemon
During an end of year break, The Interpreter is again featuring select articles published throughout 2020. This piece was originally published on 20 April. Has the corona crisis already changed the world? Many people certainly seem to think so. From doomsday prognoses of a collapse into a bio-authoritarian dystopia to cheerful visions of a rejuvenated benevolent state, commentators the world over have already identified 2020 as the date on which a new world was born.
Favourites of 2020: Evil Geniuses
An end-of-year series as the Lowy Institute staff and Interpreter contributors offer their favourite books, articles, films or TV programs this year. Look back on the series and watch for more recommendations and reflections in the days ahead. Long before a certain New York real estate developer became president of the United States, political observers had a nagging question: why are so many Americans voting against their own interests?
2020 Owen Harries Lecture: Dr Francis Fukuyama on liberalism and the 2020 US presidential election
Since 2013, the annual Owen Harries Lecture has honoured the enormous contribution Mr Harries, who was a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute, made to the international policy debate in Australia and the US. This was the first such lecture since Mr Harries’ passing in June, and we were honoured that it was delivered by Francis Fukuyama, one of the most influential political scientists of his generation. Dr Francis Fukuyama offers a defence of liberalism in theory and in practice.
Interpreting the 2020 US presidential election
A decade ago – in other words, in 2019 – a massive, world-shaping event of global consequences loomed on the horizon: the US presidential election. That was before Covid-19 came knocking. Against the backdrop of an unchecked pandemic, rage on American streets and uncertainty about the fortitude of a superpower, the world looked to see which way the USA would go.
Progressive politics in Thailand’s polarised polity
Book review: Duncan McCargo and Anyarat Chattharakul Future Forward: The rise and fall of a Thai political party (NIAS Press, 2020) Youth-led protests in Thailand in recent months have rocked the army-backed ruling elite which has been politically ascendant since a military coup in 2014 – with a state of emergency declared in Bangkok on Thursday.
The making of Prime Minister Suga
Suga Yoshihide’s moment in Japanese politics arrived with the premature resignation last month of Abe Shinzo. Suga was considered the indispensable architect of the Abe administration, controlling Japan’s political nerve centre as Chief Cabinet Secretary from 2012. On Monday this week, he was elected president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Suga is scheduled to be officially appointed as prime minister in an extraordinary Diet session on 16 September.
The Vanishing Hegemon
Trump’s America has a weakening hold on the global imagination. That doesn’t mean an end to the hyper-connected world. Has the corona crisis already changed the world? Many people certainly seem to think so. From doomsday prognoses of a collapse into a bio-authoritarian dystopia to cheerful visions of a rejuvenated benevolent state, commentators the world over have already identified 2020 as the date on which a new world was born.
A Thuringian Eruption in Germany
A Thuringian Eruption in Germany A fiasco turns to farce, enlivening the far right and leaving succession plans for Angela Merkel in shreds. Read Full Article »
A Thuringian eruption in Germany
Few know it, but Erfurt is one of Germany’s most beautiful cities. Packed with meandering narrow streets lined by half-timbered houses and overlooked by a soaring gothic cathedral, the Thuringian capital is a visual pearl tucked away in the country’s geographic core. But if Erfurt is a treasure, it is a hidden one: only rarely does it find itself at the centre of the German imagination.
What 1989 Unleashed, and What It Didn’t | RealClearDefense
The story of “post-Wall” Central Europe is not simply a straight line from liberalism’s triumph to its collapse. Germans had better sex under socialism, particularly heterosexual women, according to a comparative study undertaken in the late 1980s. A number of reasons present themselves for this curious fact. Perhaps socialism’s distinctive kinds of economic relationships effected gender relationships that were not patterned on hierarchies, roles, and dependencies.
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