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Articles by Mark Bognanni
Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model
October 2020 Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model Mark Bognanni, Doug Hanley, Daniel Kolliner, Kurt Mitman Abstract: Economic analysis of effective policies for managing epidemics requires an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. We develop and estimate a spatial, micro-founded model of the joint evolution of economic variables and the spread of an epidemic.
Has the Real-Time Reliability of Monthly Indicators Changed over Time?
(PDF ) DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201916 Economic data are routinely revised after they are initially released. I examine the extent to which the real-time reliability of six monthly macroeconomic indicators important to policymakers has remained stable over time by studying the time-series properties of their short-term and long-term revisions. I show that the revisions to many monthly economic indicators display systematic behaviors that policymakers could build into their real-time assessments.
An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting
(PDF ) The Institute for Supply Management produces a measure of pricing trends, the manufacturing price index or ISMPI, that is constructed from its periodic surveys of purchasing and supply executives. We investigate this measure’s predictive content for producer and consumer price inflation by assessing its ability to improve inflation forecasts for three broad monthly inflation measures. We find that the ISMPI has some predictive content for producer prices but not for consumer prices.
ec 201806 Can Forecasters Predict Yield Curve Inversions
The Treasury yield curve, the curve showing interest rates on Treasury securities at different maturity horizons, contains important information about the US economy.
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05.24.18 Mark Bognanni Tristan Young The Institute for Supply Management produces a measure of pricing trends, the manufacturing price index or ISMPI, that is constructed from its periodic surveys of purchasing and supply executives. We investigate this measure’s predictive content for producer and consumer price inflation by assessing its ability to improve inflation forecasts for three broad monthly inflation measures.
The Opioid Epidemic and Its Effects: A Perspective on What We Know from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Drug overdoses are now the leading cause of death for Americans under 50.1 In the Fourth Federal Reserve District states of Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, opioid overdose deaths are occurring at rates that exceed the 2016 national average of 13.2 deaths per 100,000 people. In fact, opioid overdose deaths in Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia are at least 1.5 times more frequent than the national average.
Monetary Policy and Inequality
In the aftermath of the financial crisis and the Great Recession, inequality has received a great deal of public attention.1 Following the Federal Reserve’s response to the economic downturn, some of that attention turned to the relationship between monetary policy and inequality.
Auto Loans Reach Trillion-Dollar Heights, but Is Deceleration in Sight?
Michelle Park Lazette is a staff writer in the Corporate Communications and Engagement Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. At a time when scrutiny of subprime auto loans is high, Cleveland Fed examiners see signs that banks in the Fourth District may be beginning to rein in their auto lending.
New Normal or Real-Time Noise? Revisiting the Recent Data on Labor Productivity
The importance of productivity growth to the economy would be difficult to overstate. For example, gains in labor productivity—the amount of real GDP produced per hour of work—are the only known way to increase standards of living over the long run. Productivity growth also factors into the Federal Reserve’s assessment of appropriate monetary policy.
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