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Articles by Mark DeMaria
Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting with AI
Abstract Tropical cyclones are among the most dangerous and costly weather phenomena, yet forecasting them remains a profound scientific challenge. Here, we introduce WeatherNext Cyclones (WN-C), an AI operational weather model producing state-of-the-art ensemble forecasts for track, intensity, and size of tropical cyclones worldwide.
Predicting Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors using a Probabilistic Neural Network
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Current Report Filing (8-k)
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 5, 2019 DevMar Equities, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Nevada 000-53877 20-5157768 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation) (Commission File Number) (IRS Employer Identification No.) 600 S.
Expert and Public Preferences and Perceptions of Different Color Schemes and Map Overlays on a Tropical Cyclone Wind Exceedance Forecast Graphic
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The Development and Evaluation of a Tropical Cyclone Probabilistic Landfall Forecast Product
Abstract Improving estimates of tropical cyclone forecast uncertainty remains an important goal of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). Intensity forecast uncertainty near landfall is especially complicated because intensity forecasts depend on track forecasts. Ensembles can be difficult to interpret near land due to differences in both spatial and temporal resolution and differences in landfall timing (if at all) and location.
The National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance Suite
Keywords: Hurricanes/typhoons; Forecast verification/skill; Operational forecasting; Statistical forecasting 1. Introduction The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) use a variety of models as guidance for their operational tropical cyclone (TC) track, intensity, and wind structure forecasts, and as baselines for evaluation of forecast skill.
A Description of the Real-Time HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance
Initiated in 2009, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-funded Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) goals are to reduce the average track and intensity guidance forecast errors for tropical cyclones (TCs) by 20% in 5 years and by 50% in 10 years for 1–5-day forecasts (Gall et al. 2013; Gopalakrishnan et al. 2016).
A 10-Year Survey of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Lightning Bursts and Their Relationship to Intensity Change
Keywords: Deep convection; Lightning; Tropical cyclones 1. Introduction Several recent studies have focused on the utility of lightning data to improve short-term (e.g., 24 h) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts; however, the relationship between lightning activity and TC intensity change is inconsistent among these studies. Earlier studies utilized lightning from the continent-based National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN; Molinari et al.
Derivation and Solution of the Omega Equation Associated with a Balance Theory on the Sphere
The quasi-geostrophic omega equation has been used extensively to examine the large-scale vertical velocity patterns of atmospheric systems. It is derived from the quasi-geostrophic equations, a balanced set of equations based on the partitioning of the horizontal wind into a geostrophic and an ageostrophic component. Its use is limited to higher latitudes, however, as the geostrophic balance is undefined at the equator.
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change before U.S. Gulf Coast Landfall
Keywords: Forecasting; Forecasting techniques; Hurricanes; Regression analysis; Tropical cyclones 1. Introduction Tropical cyclones1 can devastate the U.S. Gulf coast (e.g., ; ). The infamous Galveston hurricane of 1900 took at least 8000 lives and ranks as the deadliest single-day disaster in United States history. The loss of life () and the way of life suffered in 2005 from Hurricane Katrina show that the region remains at great risk.
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