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Articles by Mark Mywords
What Oil Production Freeze: Russia Just Revealed The Laughable Loophole In The OPEC "Agreement"
The main catalyst that pushed the price of oil from a 13 year low in early February, when crude briefly traded in the mid-$20 to well over 50% higher less than one month later in one of the world's most furious short squeezes, was the recurring infatuation with the fabricated narrative that OPEC would if not cut production then, then at least freeze it.
Peter Schiff Warns "The Fed Is Stuck In The Same Monetary Mud As In 2008"
The Federal Reserve’s years-long campaign to sheepishly back away from its own policy forecasts continued in earnest last week when it officially reduced the four expected 2016 quarter point hikes, suggested back in December, to just two. Given the deteriorating economic outlook, I believe there can be little doubt that the Fed will soon complete the capitulation process and remove all expectations for additional hikes this year.
Trading The FOMC
With the market already pricing in dramatically fewer rate-hikes that the "cheerleading" Fed, Deutsche Bank expects the USD to respond favorably to the FOMC’s signals on Wednesday, contrary to the pattern seen after the last four FOMC meetings with press conferences. The waning influence of the Fed’s projections is showing up in derivatives markets.
The World Economy Wreckers Of Beijing
The desperate suzerains of the Red Ponzi are incorrigible. There appears to be no insult to economic rationality that they will not attempt in order to perpetuate their power, privileges and rule. So now comes the most preposterous gambit yet. Namely, a veritable tsunami of state handouts to foster, yes, capitalist entrepreneurs! That’s right.
Chinese Hackers Break Into NY Fed, Steal $100 Million From Bangladesh Central Bank
Reports indicate that some of the stolen funds were traced to the Philippines, but given what we know about the "Cyber Axis of Evil," we can only suspect it was Iranians, Chinese, or the criminal/military mastermind Kim Jong-Un who was behind the scam, but whatever the case, someone, somewhere, hacked into Bangladesh's central bank on February 5. According to Reuters, "some of the funds" have been recovered, but the bank didn't initially say how much or how much was initially stolen.
Google's "SkyNet" Robots Are All Grown Up, And Downright Terrifying
The last time we looked at the fascinating robotic products of Boston Dynamics, a company which Google prudently acquired quietly in 2013, it was a cute petting zoo of clumsy robotic "animals" including a "big dog", a "wild cat", and a "cheetah." They could barely walk for a few minutes without collapsing or suffering some terminal failure.
Oil Crashes After API Reports Massive Crude Build
After last week's roller-coaster ride (API "draw" vs DOE "build"), tonight's API data (following Al-Naimi's reality check this morning) was much heralded. After DOE reported builds across the entire complex last week, and expectations of a 3mm barrel build, API reported a massive 7.1mm build and a bigger than expected 307k build at Cushing. Gasoline inventories also rose more than expected (for the 15th week in a row).
NYTimes Editorial Board Endorses Monetary Fascism - Backs War On Cash
I cannot overstate the significance of today’s New York Times editorial board endorsement of the elitist scheme to ban large denomination cash from public circulation. This is the latest example of the editorial board putting the interests of the establishment ahead of the citizenry, while at the same time employing a nonsensical argument to support its position which channels emotion rather than logic.
Neel "Break Up The Big Banks" Kashkari Speaks About TBTF - Live Webcast
After making waves last week for daring to suggest that big bank regulation has failed and that the TBTF problem has not been addressed, a problem which Kashkari himself launched with his bailout of the banks in 2008, moments ago the new president of the Minneapolis Fed started a live conversation in which he will once again address the TBTF problem, which he just repeated "has not been solved" much to the chagrin of the Fed's largest stakeholders. Watch it live below.
Case-Shiller Shows Home Price Acceleration Stalled In December, Stock Market Turmoil Blamed
After four months of hope-strewn expectation beats, Case-Shiller's home price index missed expectations with MoM growth slowing from 0.96% to 0.8% (and YoY from 5.83% to 5.74%). This is the first inflection in the resurrection of home-price acceleration since June, and we are sure will be blamed on the weather and the stock market. Perhaps most notably Miami and new York saw prices drop MoM as the smoking gun canaries in the coalmine of real estate speculation remain well worth watching.
PMI Plunges - The Last Time US Manufacturing Was This Weak, Bernanke Hinted At QE3
On the heels of weakness in the rest of the world's PMIs, US Manufacturing just printed 51.0 (missing expectations of 52.4) and tumbling to its lowest since October 2012... followed rapidly by Bernanke hinting at QE3.
Last Pillar Standing Breaks - They're Taking Out The "Generals"
The relatively few leaders (aka, “generals”) that had been propping up the indexes are being systematically taken out. “The way we see it is that the 6-year bull market is running out of steam, the steam being the number of stocks contributing to its advance. This occurs at the end of cyclical bull markets, ala 1999 and 2007. Once the relatively few stocks that are still propping up the market roll over, there is no foundation of support left to prevent a significant decline.
LinkedIn Collapses Below IPO-Day Highs
Do you remember when Greenspan was befuddled when natural market rates wouldn't obey his commands in the previous decade? Well, I sure hope Yellen does. Even if she doesn't the high yield financed US...
if Earnings Were "OK" And "We Are In A Bull Market", This Would Not Happen
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A Preview Of This Weekend's Event That Could Unleash A "Vicious Bear Market Rally"
As noted earlier today, BofA's chief credit strategist Michael Hartnett is anything but bullish: in his own words, he remains a seller "into strength in coming weeks/months of risk assets at least until a coordinated and aggressive global policy response (e.g. Shanghai Accord) begins to reverse the deterioration in global profit expectations and credit conditions." There is, however, one major catalyst that will take place over the weekend that could change Hartnett's mind if only for the...
Sweden: Death By Immigration
Submitted by Ingrid Carlqvist via The Gatestone Institute, Mass immigration is continuing to claim victims in Sweden. Murder, assaults and rape have become everyday occurrences in this small country, with a population just short of ten million, which last year opened its doors to almost 163,000 immigrants. The latest victim is 22-year-old Alexandra Mezher. She was stabbed to death last week by a so-called unaccompanied refugee child at the asylum house where she worked.
When Mother Market Force Takes Over Central Banking! Watch Rates Rise Even Though the Fed Doesn't
Many "smart guys" allege that the drop in oil is bad for the ecomomy. I call BS. Oil prices are an input costs. Input costs are what strip revenues down to profits and potentially losses. The lower the input cost, the higher profit. What has occured was a decades long credit bubble that fueld a profligate binging on debt. It is hard to get off of that drug called free money, particuarly as your dope pusher (those that push rates outside of market force bounds) continues to give you more of that smack.
Closing In: Russia, Iran, Assad "Encircle" Syria's Largest City As Peace Talks Collapse In Geneva
Back in October, we previewed the “promised” battle for Aleppo, Syria’s largest city prior to the war. By the time Russia began constructing an air base at Latakia, the city - which is immensely important both from a strategic and psychological perspective - was controlled by a hodgepodge of rebels and militants including al-Qaeda, the Free Syrian Army, and ISIS.
The Opaque Process Of Collapse
The ultimate cost of protecting the privileges of the few at the expense of the many is the dissolution of the social order that enabled the rule of the privileged few. When I write about the demise of unsustainable systems, readers often ask me to describe the collapse I see as inevitable.
"Recovery" Fable Unravels As BOE Cuts Growth Forecast, Eurozone Slashes Inflation Outlook
As you might have noticed, the “recovery” story is starting to fall apart. Central banks across the globe are running out of excuses for why trillions upon trillions in global QE have been an abject failure when it comes to resuscitating global demand and trade.
The End Game For Central Banks Has Officially Begun
For over six years, the markets have been moving based on Central Banker actions and words. The first phase (2009 to 2013) was dominated by action (ZIRP and QE). The second phase (2013 to the present) was increasingly reliant on words (verbal intervention) as most Central Banks had by then used up 90% of their ammo.
China Takes Aim At "Zombie Companies", Says Soaring Job Losses Won't Lead To Popular Revolt
Downside risks to China’s economy are “relatively big” National Development and Reform Commission Chairman Xu Shaoshi admitted on Wednesday, but that’s not going to stop Beijing from swearing that China is growing at a near 7% clip. At a press briefing, Xu revealed China’s growth target for the year and for the first time since 1995, it’s a range rather than a set number.
Full Summary Of Chinese Actions To Prevent An All-Out Economic Collapse
Last summer, China unleashed an unprecedented array of measures - up to and including the arrest of "malicious short sellers" and prominent hedge fund mangers - to prevent its stock market bubble from bursting. It failed. A few months later, the chaos has spilled over from the relative containment of the capital markets and has engulfed not only the country's FX reserves, and capital account, but also the entire economy.
An Escalator Of Optimism
The current stock market level is disconcertingly well below not just the Wall Street forecasts for 2016 (made a couple months ago), but also below those made for 2015... or for even 2014! One can see our recently tabulated list (the lengthiest available ever) of market calls, which was recently enjoyed by leaders such as billionaire Vinod Khosla, and economist Noah Smith.
Grenade Hurled At Refugee Shelter As 40% Of Germans Tell Merkel To Resign
On Thursday evening we detailed the dramatic increase in Google search queries for gun permits in Germany. Specifically, since January 1, the number of Germans Googling “gun permits” has risen more than 1,000%. Meanwhile, sales of non-lethal weapons such as tear gas pistols have skyrocketed, as Germans look to protect themselves against what many see as a hostile foreign invasion.
Bank of Japan Policy Panic Unleashes Stock, Bond Buying Pandemonium
So let's start with today's idiocy... US equities driven by fundamentals!! But here is some context for January's moves... For US markets - apart from 2009's collapse, this is the worst January ever... Saved by today's total panic! But bonds had a great one!! This is Gold's 3rd January up in a row (and 8th of the last 11 years)... Across asset-classes, Bonds & Bullion did well, stocks and crude not so much... Small Caps underperformed while the S&P was the least bad performer...
WTI Crude Spikes Above $30 - Back To Post-Iran Ledge
The machines are in control. On the day when inventories surge, demand tumbles, production surges, and credit risk spikes, "traders" are panic-buying crude oil with both hands and feet... except they just ran the stops to the post-Iran open... Let's see if it holds...
Harry Reid Urges "Calm" Despite Stock Market Drop
You know America's economy (and politicians) has become entirely financialized when Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid says the following: *REID: LAWMAKERS SHOULD `STAY CALM' DESPITE STOCK MARKET DROP *REID: TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT RESPONSE TO STOCK-MARKET DROP Stocks are down 10% from their highs after doubling or more for 6 years. Speechless.
50 Million Americans Prepare For "Potentially Historic" Winter Storm
With the exception of a handful of one-time events, it had been such a mild winter across most of the U.S. that numerous retailers have been complaining how negatively impacted their topline has been as a result of the warmer weather (clearly having forgotten how they complained about precisely the opposite in prior years).
Bullard Bounce 2.0 - Stocks Surge By Most Since September; Bonds, Dollar Flat
The "intervention" began overnight as The National Team stepped in to China's most tech-heavy index ChiNext for a 9.5% rally rampapalooza off the opening lows Then "He" spoke and the market obeyed... Dow surged 411 points off the lows - Even better than Bullard Bounce 101 (a 400 point bounce) Will it be deja vu all over again? It does not look like it - S&P Futs were ramped to VWAP then stalled, then ramped to Tuesday's cash close... then dumped...
China Flexes Muscles At Shanghai Gold Exchange
Hold your real assets outside of the banking system in a private international facility --> http://www.321gold.com/info/053015_sprott.html The New Cold War between West and East has already become a Luke-Warm War, and it threatens to become a full-fledged “hot” war. After years of passively reacting to Western crime and aggression; both China and Russia have shown an increasing tendency to adopt a more proactive stance.
Here It Comes: New York Fed President Says "If Economy Weakens Further, Would Consider Negative Rates"
Remember when the Fed's dots - less than a month ago - suggested there would be 4 rate hikes in 2016? Ah, the memories.
Gartman: "In Our Retirement Funds We Shifted To Modestly Net Short, We Have Had No Choice"
In a world of sheer confusion and pervasive central bank intervention, there is one immovable force of stability and direction: Dennis Gartman.
Wholesale Trade Data Suggest Manufacturing Recession Spreading To Entire Economy
The good news - wholesale inventories are being worked off (falling 0.3% MoM in November - biggest drop since May 2013). The bad news - inventoriees are being worked off (crushing Q4 GDP hopes). The ugly news - Wholesale sales collapsed 1.0% MoM - the biggest drop in a year (leaving the spread between sales and inventories at a record high).
Pizza And Assault Rifles: Inside The Occupied Oregon Wildlife Refuge
When last we checked in on Ammon Bundy and his band of “patriots”, Harney County Sheriff David Ward was getting fed up with the group’s occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. “It is time for you to leave our community, go home to your families, and end this peacefully,” Ward said on Tuesday. But Ammon Bundy and the handful of armed militiamen holed up at the remote, snowy federal outpost have no such plans.
Options Traders See Yuan Collapse Continuing In "Dangerous Situation For Policy-Makers"
Surely, The PBOC will step in at some point and save the collapsing currency? Nope - not if options traders (and Kyle Bass) are to be believed. The odds of the yuan breaking beyond 7 to the greenback by the end of March more than doubled to 12% (from 5.8% at the start of December). Ironically, Bloomberg reports only 1 of 39 analyst predicts Yuan to trade beyond 7 by the end of 2016.
Saudis Dismantle Welfare State, Boost Gas Prices by 40% To Wage War With U.S. Shale
Earlier today, we parsed Saudi Arabia’s budget report in order to determine if the kingdom’s fiscal nightmare was better or worse than market expectations. As it turns out, it was better. This year’s deficit is expected to come in at around 15-16% of GDP, considerably below the 20% some analysts feared. For 2016, it looks as though the number should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 13%, broadly in line with expectations.
The Average Stock Is Just Shy Of Being In A Bear Market
As of today’s closing the S&P 500 index is quite literally in spitting distance of its all-time high as the markets cheered the first rate hike in a decade. Yet, as we noted here and here, most stocks are not quite acting as ebullient as one might expect given former. Here is more evidence of just that. The below chart shows the average stock’s distance from its own 1-year high, which at 19% implies the average stock is just outside the threshold of being in a bear market.
Gartman: "Our Bond Fund Took A Sizeable 'Hit' On Friday"
Curious who else got slammed in Friday's junk bond debacle? The answer - everyone's favorite CNBC commentator, "world renowned commodity trader" Dennis Gartman. From his latest letter: Our bond fund took a sizeable “hit” on Friday following the news of the refusal on the part of the Third Avenue fund to allow for immediate redemptions where those unable to sell their positions in Third Avenue sold what they could and where they could to gain access to liquidity.
Bail-Ins “Undermine Confidence” In Banks - Lead to Suicide of Pensioner
Bail-Ins “Undermine Confidence” In Banks - Lead to Suicide of Pensioner Bank 'bail-ins' and the new international bail-in regime that impose losses on bank investors, bondholders and even depositors may undermine the confidence of small savers in the banking system, a senior Bank of Italy official warned on Wednesday.
Junk Bond Prices Tumble To 2009 Levels
With the biggest single-day drop in over 4 years, US High-Yield bond prices have collapsed to their lowest levels since July 2009. Crucially, it's not just energy companies as the painful illqiuidty has careened across the entire space, not helped by fund liquidations and the biggest outflows since August 2014. As we warned here, and confirmed here, something has blown-up in high-yield... The carnage is across the entire credit complex... with yields on 'triple hooks' back to 2009 levels...
Crushing The Auto-Makers' Dreams (In 2 Depressing Charts)
Earlier this morning we got another glimpse of reality behind the smoke-and-mirrors, mainstream-media-sponsored last-pillar-standing lovefest that is US auto sales when the business sales data showed a disheartening tumble in sales in October. So where are all the sales going that automakers report? The answer is simple... (and painful).
"Everything's Crashing"
The writing has been on the wall for a few days/weeks, but it appears a combination of global FX and equity turmoil and domestic corporate debt market collapse is finally starting to roil US equity markets. The Dow is down over 600 points in the last week or so, bond yields are collapsing, the USDollar is tumbling, crude is crashing, and junk bonds are in free-fall.
Bail-Ins “Undermine Confidence” In Banks - Lead to Suicide of Pensioner
Bail-Ins “Undermine Confidence” In Banks - Lead to Suicide of Pensioner Bank 'bail-ins' and the new international bail-in regime that impose losses on bank investors, bondholders and even depositors may undermine the confidence of small savers in the banking system, a senior Bank of Italy official warned on Wednesday.
"Come To Us, We'll Show You Paradise" Salafist 'Aid Workers' Recruit Refugees In Germany
Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatesone Institute, The number of radical Salafists in Germany has more than doubled over the past five years, according to a new estimate by German intelligence officials. Salafists disguised as aid workers are also canvassing German refugee shelters in search of new recruits from among the nearly one million asylum seekers who have arrived in Germany this year from Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
Chipotle Tumbles: Will Demand Customers Pay More For Food That Won't Make Them Sick
From Ecoli to Norovirus and from average-joes to college athletes, the success of CMG has become its down fall as something ugly is growing in the healthy fast food restaurant. The latest headline is a little intriguing, as amid all the carnage, Chitptle says it will have to raise prices... as new supplier standards will hurt margins, and require "significant cost" adjustment, according to CFO Jack Hartung. We will see if poeple wil pay more not to get siuck and lose 15lbs (or prefer to pay less).
The Latest Revolving Door Farce: Bernanke, Trichet And Gordon Brown To Form Pimco Advisory Board
The public-to-private sector "revolving door" has crossed into the macabre twilight zone.
Richmond Fed Shows 3rd Monthly Decline As Wages Crash Most In 4 Years
A collapse in new orders and the order backlog combined with a plunge in wages, average workweek, and number of employees has left the Richmond Fed contracting for the 3rd month in a row. The last three times this happened, The US was either in recession or The Fed unleashed QE3. So Recession... or moar QE? The entire survey was ugly but wages saw the biggest crash since May 2011... Time to hike rates?! Charts: Bloomberg Average: Your rating: None Average: 5 (1 vote)
If The Economy Is Fine, Why Are So Many Hedge Funds, Energy Companies And Large Retailers Imploding?
Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog, If the U.S. economy really is in “great shape”, then why do all of the numbers keep telling us that we are in a recession? The manufacturing numbers say that we are in a recession, the trade numbers say that we are in a recession, and as you will see below the retail numbers say that we are in a recession.
Goldman Finds Buybacks No Longer Work To Boost Stock Prices: Two Reasons Why
One would think that companies announcing stock buybacks when their shares are trading at or near all time highs would be a less than rational and prudent use of funds. After all, everyone knows what happened to IBM which we first profiled as a prolific repurchaser in early 2014, and which after buying back $100 billion in stock since 2007 has seen its return on buybacks implode to levels that would see any hedge fund PM fired in milliseconds.
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