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Articles by Marlon Chacon
Country Risk in MENA
Bahrain (BHR) Bahrain is rated medium-high overall, with fiscal weakness and regional security exposure remaining the principal vulnerabilities. Political violence is medium-high, legal & regulatory risk and political interference are medium, while supply-chain disruption is medium-low. The Sunni monarchy retains tight political control over a majority-Shia population, and political opposition remains heavily restricted.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Country Risk Ratings
Angola (AGO) Angola retains a medium-high overall risk rating, with governance weaknesses and oil dependence remaining the main constraints. Legal & regulatory risk is very high, political interference is high and political violence and supply-chain disruption are medium-high. President João Lourenço and the MPLA retain firm control of the political system, while restrictions on demonstrations and limited opposition influence continue to weaken accountability.
2026 Q2 Shadow Credit Ratings to Download in Excel
The ratings are based on our Country Strength Index (CSI), which is our most comprehensive assessment across our full range of Country Insights data. The ratings are consistent with our 2026 Q2 Country Insights update. Figure 1. Shadow Ratings and Agency Ratings, Southeast Asia Source: Continuum Economics Our ratings sit above the agency average for six of the seven rated sovereigns, and the difference widens steadily further down the scale. At the lower end the gaps are large.
2026 Q2 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
The Country Insights (CI) Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk, measuring a country’s exposure to external and domestic financial shocks and its capacity to grow. Our full range of scores across 174 countries for the first quarter of 2026 is now available; the dataset allows comparison across periods and ranks all countries on the headline indicators, with each metric provided as an accessible time series.
Strait of Hormuz Scenarios
With the Islamabad Memorandum lapsed since August 16th, what are the scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz? Figure 1: WTI Oil Price Projections (USD) Source: Continuum Economics June MOU between Iran and the U.S. has expired, as Iran attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz triggering targeted military strikes in July and occasionally thereafter. Hardliner opposition in Iran was one driver, but the MOU was already fragile on proposed tolls and Lebanon, but what happens in the coming months?
Saudi Arabia Country Risk Rating
Overall risk in Saudia Arabia remains at a medium rating. The overall risk is medium, with political violence and political interference classified as medium high and medium risks, respectively. Over the last ten years, regional political and security stability has remained a key priority for Saudi Arabia, especially as it pursues its Vision 2030 goals, which aim to diversify the economy.
2026 Q1 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
The CI Model generates three main composite indexes, namely Investment Attractiveness, Sovereign Risk, and Country Strength, built on four underlying pillars: external adjustment capacity, institutional strength, medium-term growth prospects, and social inclusion.
Commodities Outlook: The War in Action
Oil: All Eyes on The Strait of Hormuz The first quarter of 2026 has been one of the most volatile periods for oil markets. The escalation of the conflict involving Iran has triggered significant supply disruptions and pushed prices sharply higher as traders reassess the availability of crude from the Gulf region. Much of this volatility has been driven by the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles close to one-fifth of global oil flows.
2025 Q4 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
The scores file allows for comparison with other periods and ranking for all countries across the headline indicators and are available as easily accessible time series. The Country Insights model generates three composite indexes: Investment Attractiveness (IAI), Sovereign Risk (SRI), and the Country Strength (CSI). The CSI is based on four underlying pillars, namely external adjustment capacity, institutional strength, medium-term growth prospects, and social inclusion.
2025 Q4 Shadow Credit Ratings to Download in Excel
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. We produce Shadow Credit Ratings for 162 countries, comparable to those from official credit rating agencies. The ratings are based on our Country Strength Index (CSI), which is our most comprehensive assessment across our full range of Country Insights data.
Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel
Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates. We forecast across 23 countries annual and quarterly. Our annual forecasts go out to 2030, while our quarterly forecasts are now updated out to Q4 2027. The forecasts are consistent with the December Global Outlook ‘Turbulent Times' published on December 17th 2025.
2025 Q3 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the third quarter of 2025 is now available. The scores file allows for comparison with other periods and ranking for all countries across the headline indicators and are available as easily accessible time series.
2025 Q2 Shadow Credit Ratings to Download in Excel
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. We produce Shadow Credit Ratings for 162 countries, comparable to those from credit rating agencies. The ratings are based on our Country Strength Index (CSI), which is our most comprehensive assessment across our full range of Country Insights data.
2025 Q2 Country Insights Scores to Download in Excel
The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. The access to our full range of scores across 174 countries corresponding to the second quarter of 2025 is now available. The scores file allows for comparison with other periods and ranking for all countries across the headline indicators and are available as easily accessible time series.
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