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Articles by Martyn Carlisle
NFL Week 17 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet on Jaylen Warren OVER 34.5 rushing yards (-110 FanDuel): Warren played almost 60% of snaps in a blowout Week 16 win against the Bengals — a good sign that he will be on the field often in Week 17 against one of the NFL's worst run defenses over the second half of the season.
NFL Week 16 Betting: Christmas Eve betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• RB Breece Hall over 48.5 rush yards (-113 FanDuel) — Washington is expected to give up the sixth-most rushing yards per attempt in Week 16, and this drop in defensive strength should allow the Jets to commit to the run game. • WR Justin Jefferson over 82.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel) — Justin Jefferson did not miss a beat in his first full game back from injury, putting up 82 yards against a weak Bengals secondary with backup QB Nick Mullens throwing the ball.
Thursday Night Football Week 16: Saints-Rams betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• TE Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams — over 24.5 receiving yards: High-volume tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Sam LaPorta both had monster games against the Saints in recent weeks, combining for 20 catches, 274 yards and two touchdowns, but Cole Kmet, Darren Waller and Evan Engram have all posted good numbers against this defense, too.
Monday Night Football Week 15: Eagles-Seahawks betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• D’Andre Swift over 58.5 rushing yards: After starting the year as one of the league's better run defenses, the Seahawks have allowed the most rushing yards over expectation of any team in the league over the second half of the season. • Plenty of opportunity: Swift should be more involved in a game script that is likely to be favorable. And if Jalen Hurts (illness) is ruled out, there will likely be a slight volume boost for the Eagles running back, too.
Sunday Night Football Week 15: Ravens-Jaguars betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• RB D'Ernest Johnson, Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 13.5 rushing yards — Most of Johnson's work has come in the passing game, and even when given opportunities in the run game, he has recorded just 2.5 yards per carry. • Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day.
NFL Week 15 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet on Puka Nacua to go OVER 66.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel): It would take a good deal of luck, either with a broken coverage or a chunk play after the catch, for this number to go over. • Bet on Ezekiel Elliott to go UNDER 17.5 rushing attempts (-113 FanDuel): New England's offense is struggling overall, so staying on the field against one of the league’s better secondaries will prove difficult.
Thursday Night Football Week 15: Chargers-Raiders betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers — over 3.5 receptions: Options are limited for the Chargers, and the market does not seem to have properly accounted for the sheer volume of targets Keenan Allen was taking up in this offense. • WR Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders — over 23.5 receiving yards: The baseline total of 23.5 is too low for someone generating between three and five targets per game with a high expected catch rate.
Monday Night Football Week 14: Titans-Dolphins betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• WR DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans — under 55.5 receiving yards: Hopkins is the focal point of this passing offense, but he has struggled to generate separation for a while now. And against an elite corner such as Jalen Ramsey, his ability to produce the big plays he used to be well-known for will be severely limited. • $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day.
Sunday Night Football Week 14: Eagles-Cowboys betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
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Sunday Night Football Week 14: Eagles-Cowboys betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys: Under 45.5 receiving yards — Ferguson had the best outing of his young career in Week 9 against the Eagles, but Philadelphia is on a hot streak of shutting down top tight ends. • Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day.
NFL Week 14 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet on Christian McCaffrey to go over 117.5 combined rushing and receiving yards: McCaffrey just posted 139 yards against the Seahawks two weeks ago, and he is expected to get additional playing time this week at home. • Bet on David Montgomery as an anytime TD scorer (+100 FanDuel): He should have multiple scoring opportunities against a suspect defense that allowed more than 30 points to the Lions just a couple of weeks ago.
Thursday Night Football Week 14: Patriots-Steelers betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• QB Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots — 200+ passing yards: The receiving options are a concern for the Patriots, with Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne out, but DeVante Parker returned with a solid game last week. And despite giving up very few points overall, the Steelers defense has given up plenty of receiving yards against a relatively weak schedule.
Monday Night Football Week 13: Bengals-Jaguars betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars — over 42.5 receiving yards: The Bengals are struggling across the board, but they have been particularly underwhelming covering tight ends. • Engram should be able to take advantage, and quickly: Evan Engram is heavily involved in this Jaguars passing offense.
Sunday Night Football Week 13: Chiefs-Packers betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers — under 39.5 receiving yards: Although Watson is exceptional against man coverage, Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed has limited elite threats this season in shadow coverage. • Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day.
NFL Week 13 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet on Cooper Kupp to go OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-109) against the Browns: In a likely closer game than last week’s big win, the Rams' passing attack should be more involved. And with Kupp practicing fully this week and Matthew Stafford being relatively healthy, this line is low for the wideout. • Bet on David Montgomery as an anytime TD scorer (-130): Detroit is likely to control possession, so there will be good opportunities at the Saints' end of the field.
Thursday Night Football Week 13: Seahawks-Cowboys betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks — longest reception over 17.5 yards (-114 FanDuel): The Seahawks have finally figured out how to use Jaxon Smith-Njigba after weeks and weeks of running him underneath and passing to him only at the line of scrimmage. • JSN with a favorable matchup: The much-talked-about DaRon Bland and longtime elite corner Stephon Gilmore start on the outside for the Cowboys, while Jourdan Lewis — and his 47.5 PFF coverage grade — mans the slot.
Monday Night Football: Bears-Vikings Week 12 betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears — over 9.5 rushing attempts: The Justin Jefferson-less Vikings offense is not really potent enough to blow a team out, so the run game should be a continued option for the Bears. And there is always the option for Fields to scramble on a dropback against a good pass-rushing unit. • A solid return last week: Last week, 14 of Fields' 18 rushing attempts were designed, and eight came in the first half when the Bears were behind in the game.
Sunday Night Football Week 12: Ravens-Chargers betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• WR Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens — under 63.5 receiving yards: Flowers is a dynamic receiver, but with all of the offensive options available to the Ravens right now and the fact that Flowers does about 50% of his work after the catch, this is a tough number to go over. • Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day.
NFL Week 12 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet on Josh Downs to go OVER 49.5 receiving yards against the Buccaneers: Tampa Bay has given up the most yards per route run to opposing slot receivers this season, and Downs is poised to return to his normal role this week after dealing with an injury. • Bet on Kareem Hunt to go OVER 39.5 rushing yards: The Browns will run the ball a good amount with a struggling quarterback, and the volume of carries alone should push Hunt past this line.
NFL Thanksgiving Day betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions — over 81.5 receiving yards: Cornerback Keisean Nixon had his worst game of the season against Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 4, producing a season-low 46.8 PFF coverage grade. And he should struggle again against a healthy opponent who really does not have too much competition for targets.
Monday Night Football: Eagles-Chiefs Week 11 betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs — under 284.5 passing yards: This bet is mainly due to how quickly this game could pass us by. The Chiefs complete passes at a very high rate, while the Eagles have every opportunity to run the ball down the Chiefs' throat. • A tough spot for the quarterbacks: It takes a lot to get to this sort of number, and while Patrick Mahomes is exceptionally good, the game state and style will play a big part in how Monday night goes.
Sunday Night Football Week 11: Vikings-Broncos betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos — over 27.5 pass attempts: The Vikings' run defense has been excellent recently, so passing is the Broncos' most likely route to victory on Sunday night. • WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos — over 41.5 receiving yards: In Jeudy's best matchup since Week 4, expect him to get the ball at a higher clip. • Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day.
NFL Week 11 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet on Amari Cooper to go OVER 3.5 receptions despite the Browns' QB situation: The Steelers' defense has allowed huge games to multiple wide receivers over the past six weeks, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson's ceiling is still a large unknown. • Bet on Trevor Lawrence's longest pass to go OVER 35.5 yards: On 33 passes going at least 20 yards downfield, Lawrence has 13 big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays. He has recorded a pass of at least 36 yards in each of his past three games.
College Football Week 12 Best Bet: Back Georgia, Tennessee to go under the 58.5-point total
• Georgia @ Tennessee, under 58.5: The Vols defense ranks 23rd in the FBS in EPA allowed per play and 28th in yards per play. The limiting of explosive production lends itself to betting unders on totals closing in on 60 points despite the pace of one of the teams. • A slow, low-scoring game? The slower-paced team is the big favorite and will likely dominate possession and control the general pace of the game.
Thursday Night Football: Bengals-Ravens betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• RB Keaton Mitchell under 36.5 rushing yards: The market appears to have overreacted to some very efficient, highly publicized performances from rookie running back Keaton Mitchell. And while it's admittedly uncomfortable to bet an under against a run defense that just allowed Devin Singletary to run from 150 yards, the number here is too high. • Unsustainable productivity: Mitchell's opportunity is likely to increase, but his efficiency is going to be difficult to maintain.
Monday Night Football: Broncos-Bills Week 10 betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Russell Wilson over 29.5 pass attempts: There is plenty of reason to think that a road game as a seven-point underdog against a team that plays with pace is more conducive to passing volume than games against a slow-paced offense such as the Chiefs or against an exceptional coverage unit like the Jets.
Sunday Night Football Week 10: Jets-Raiders betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• RB Josh Jacobs, over 19.5 receiving yards:The Jets rank 31s in yards per route run allowed to running backs because the ball has to go somewhere, right? O’Connell has already shown a liking for his checkdown option, who will have the best matchup advantage in this game. • Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day.
NFL Week 10 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• WR Christian Watson to dominate: The Packers WR1 is back from an injury with his best matchup of the season. • RB Tony Pollard under 16.5 rush attempts: This rushing attempt line is high because there are many ways this bet can win. • Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day. Join FanDuel today! Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes Last week's bets were hit-and-miss.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: Back Vanderbilt, South Carolina to go over the 57.5-point total
• Vanderbilt @ South Carolina: Over 57.5 — This is a buy-low spot for a Vanderbilt offense that has played an incredibly tough schedule of SEC defenses over the last six weeks in Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia, Florida, Missouri and Kentucky. • A much easier matchup for the Commodores — South Carolina is significantly worse than all of those teams in the secondary, so there is plenty of reason to believe a Vanderbilt offense can find its feet once again.
Thursday Night Football: Panthers-Bears betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns & under 0.5 interceptions: Although Bryce Young has yet to really flash any serious upside, his elevated floor over the past month is far higher than anyone is willing to give him credit for. • An intriguing narrative: There is a lot of negativity surrounding Young, but there does not appear to be any for Tyson Bagent.
Monday Night Football: Chargers-Jets Week 9 betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• RB Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers — over 31.5 receiving yards: The Jets defense is exceptional at all levels, and because of the strength of their cornerbacks, linebackers and safeties in coverage, checking down has become quite important for opposing quarterbacks. • Targets up for grabs: There may not be a better running back on checkdowns than L.A.'s Austin Ekeler.
Sunday Night Football Week 9: Bills-Bengals betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet James Cook OVER 47.5 rushing yards: Man is Buffalo's most common run concept (25%), and that is where the Bengals have struggled in run defense. • Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day.
NFL Week 9 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet Ezekiel Elliott OVER 8.5 rushing attempts: The Patriots are dealing with a bevy of wide receiver injuries and face a team that just traded away two star defensive linemen, so rushing attempts are likely to be more frequent for them this week. • Bet Aaron Jones OVER 21.5 receiving yards: Jones’ availability dictates how Green Bay likes to run their offense, and the team will look to get him involved in a favorable matchup.
College Football Week 10 Best Bets: Back LSU to take down Alabama
• Bet the LSU Moneyline: The LSU offense is by far the most reliable unit on the field for this game. I am happy to buy the upside they offer in an underdog situation against an offense that has struggled against every team it has faced. • Marshall @ Appalachian State, Over 55.5: This total looks very low for a game that will see two well-rounded and potentially explosive offenses against two low-end coverage defenses.
Thursday Night Football: Titans-Steelers betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• WR Allen Robinson II, Pittsburgh Steelers — over 13.5 receiving yards: Robinson is the starting slot receiver, and Tennessee will be down starting slot corner Roger McCreary for the second week in a row. • Titans struggling to defend the slot: McCreary missed last week’s game against the Falcons due to a hamstring injury, and rookie safety Eric Garror took his place for the most part. KhaDarel Hodge managed 75 yards from the slot, while Scotty Miller scored a touchdown against Garror.
Monday Night Football: Raiders-Lions betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• TE Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders — over 2.5 receptions: In the last six quarters of football that Mayer and Garoppolo have played together, the Raiders signal-caller has targeted the Notre Dame product seven times across 31 routes for a total of 108 yards. • Detroit struggling against tight ends: Meanwhile, Detroit has given up the fifth-highest explosive pass play percentage to tight ends this season, with rookie Jack Campbell particularly struggling in coverage.
Sunday Night Football Week 8: Bears-Chargers betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet UNDER 46.5 points in Bears-Chargers: This is a lot of points to cover for a quarterback making his second NFL start and a quarterback playing with a broken finger. • Bet $5 and get $200 in guaranteed bonus bets! Click here to sign up with FanDuel. Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes The Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Chargers are both dealing with quarterback injuries.
NFL Week 8 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet Bryce Young OVER 223.5 passing yards: In a contest where the Panthers are expected to be playing from behind yet again, there is a good chance Young has his best game of the season. • Bet Calvin Ridley OVER 52.5 receiving yards: Outside receivers have torched the Steelers this season. • Bet $5 and get $200 in guaranteed bonus bets! Click here to sign up with FanDuel! Estimated reading time: 4 minutes We are fast approaching the halfway point of the 2023 NFL season.
College Football Week 9 Best Bets: Back Caleb Williams and USC to dominate Cal
• Troy -5.5: The Troy defense is the best unit Texas State will have faced this year, as they rank 20th in adjusted run defense and 15th in adjusted pass defense. And one or two extra stops here and there should be enough for Troy in this one, given the real weakness of this Texas State defense. • USC -10.5: The thing that sets Caleb Williams apart is his ability to extend plays, which is very impactful at this level.
Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers-Bills Week 8 betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• RB Latavius Murray — over 25.5 rushing yards: The choice to go with a Latavius Murray overs bet is because Murray does not necessarily need the explosive plays to cover a line in this range, even if Vita Vea were to play. • WR Khalil Shakir Anytime TD: A long shot, but there is big upside to these plays, given the exceptional matchup tonight. These numbers are just too big. • Get $200 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $200 in bonus bets.
Monday Night Football: 49ers-Vikings betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers — under 47.5 receiving yards: Kittle has elite upside, but he is a somewhat high-variance receiver, and this line is slightly high for his game-to-game production. • The Vikings are excelling against tight ends: Only Travis Kelce, the league's best tight end by far, has managed to produce against this set of Vikings defenders when he grabbed 10 catches for 67 yards in Week 5.
Sunday Night Football Week 7: Dolphins-Eagles betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet D'Andre Swift OVER 62.5 rushing yards: Wind is expected to be a factor, plus the Eagles will want to burn clock against a high-powered Dolphins offense. • Bet $5 and get $200 in guaranteed bonus bets! Click here to sign up with FanDuel. Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes The Philadelphia Eagles‘ Week 7 matchup with the Miami Dolphins begins one of the toughest possible runs of games, with the NFC East leaders facing the Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Cowboys again after Miami.
NFL Week 7 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet Puka Nacua OVER 60.5 receiving yards: A receiving yardage total of 60 is low for a player who has proved he is worth double-digit targets against one of the NFL's leakier pass defenses. • Bet Lamar Jackson UNDER 212.5 passing yards: Even if the weather is fine and the game is played at a standard pace, the Ravens still face the task of having to move the ball downfield against one of the NFL's stingiest coverage units.
College Football Week 8 Best Bets: Back UCLA to cover the spread against Stanford
• UCLA -17 (-105 FanDuel): This is a lot of points to cover on the road. However, it presents an excellent opportunity to sell high on a Stanford offense that just put up 40-plus points en route to an overtime win against the defensively weak Colorado. • Nevada @ San Diego State over 47.5: Neither Nevada nor San Diego State is a particularly good team.
Thursday Night Football: Jaguars-Saints betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars: Elite coverage linebacker Demario Davis is dealing with a knee injury and is currently questionable, presenting Travis Etienne with arguably the best opportunity of any Jaguars pass-catcher on Thursday Night Football. Click here to see the best bet. • K Blake Grupe, New Orleans Saints: The Saints receiving corps is exceptional, and they will move the ball downfield, but they are conservative under head coach Dennis Allen.
Monday Night Football: Cowboys-Chargers betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• RB Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys — over 69.5 rushing yards: Dak Prescott has struggled through five weeks and has gone under his passing total regularly, so there is an added opportunity for Pollard to help move this offense downfield in a game that should be competitive throughout. • The perfect opportunity: The Chargers are giving up the fourth-highest success rate to opposing rushing attacks and have had a defender grade negatively on 75.8% of plays, the highest number in the league.
Sunday Night Football Week 6: Giants-Bills betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet Josh Allen OVER 2.5 passing touchdowns: The Bills pass at a top-five rate on early downs in the first half in neutral situations, while the Giants are giving up 15-plus-yard plays at the fourth-highest rate in the league. • Bet $5 and get $200 in guaranteed bonus bets! Click here to sign up with FanDuel. Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes The New York Giants are in all sorts of trouble.
NFL Week 6 Betting: Sunday betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• Bet Logan Thomas OVER 35.5 receiving yards: In his three fully healthy weeks played, he leads the team in targets, playing almost every snap with little competition at the position. • Bet Chris Olave OVER 4.5 receptions: His lines on both receptions and yards this week are heavily based on a lackluster past two weeks, but a bounce-back is in store for the Saints' passing offense.
College Football Week 7 Best Bets: Bet on Oregon to take down Washington
• BYU moneyline: The BYU offense matches up well against a TCU defense that is worse than its pure numbers suggest, given that the Horned Frogs have faced two low-volume, low-efficiency passing offenses in West Virginia and Iowa State in recent weeks. • Oregon moneyline: Michael Penix Jr. and company will face a whole new test here, whereas Oregon faced an excellent passing offense in Colorado a few weeks ago and completely shut it down.
Thursday Night Football: Broncos-Chiefs betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
• WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs — over 28.5 receiving yards: There are expected to be constant winds between 15-20 m.p.h. and gusts up to 30 m.p.h., which will mean a lot of running and a lot of line-of-scrimmage-type plays. That is Kadarius Toney’s wheelhouse.
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