Generative AI (GenAI) is set to reshape the workforce, redefining career pathways and talent development. However, despite public anxieties about mass displacement, GenAI’s biggest impacts won’t be on the number of jobs so much as on the level of expertise required to do them. For any given role, much depends on the learning curve between entry-level and experienced workers, which determines how knowledge and skills—and the productivity they unlock—accrue over time.