Is this you? As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.
Claim your profile
Articles by Matthew Kruse
Brazil readies another huge soy crop
Even with soybean production costs growing due to higher fertilizer prices in Brazil, farmers can still profit. By Dayanne Sousa and Michael Hirtzer It’s a bleak harvest season for U.S. soybean farmers, with prices near multi-year lows and not a single cargo sold to China. Now another threat is looming as Brazilian producers gear up to expand plantings and possibly flood the market.
Worst basis ever recorded in North Dakota
Combines are already starting to roll in central Iowa and traders will be eager for any yield reports to validate the market response to the USDA report this month. It is not often the market moves higher following a bearish update. It was another case where the market viewed the USDA report as being too slow to illustrate the declining crop conditions from late season drought and disease.
Ag Marketing IQ: The U.S. soybean markets slide deeper into bear territory as farmers await resolution to the China trade dispute. Without Chinese demand, ending stocks could more than double, potentially triggering a price collapse similar to 2018.
At a Glance No adequate replacement for Chinese demand exists Ending stocks could balloon to 800 million bushels Trade resolution unlikely until late fall When looking at a “pending” China deal while facing down a pending harvest, the market reality is an abundant supply of soybeans with an underwhelming customer base.
Cash corn at $5.38 per bushel in Brazil
The next five weeks will be critical in determining Brazil’s corn crop. As of now, we don’t see any significant weather threats to the second crop of corn while the entire Center West region, as well as Parana in the south all see four to six inches of rain in the next two weeks. Parts of the eastern edge of the growing region may lack precipitation but these regions are minor in size and scope of production. Brazil will still need to see solid rainfall throughout the month of April.
Control your farm transition
Family farms can’t control Mother Nature, government whim or global grain competitors. We can plan for a smooth farm succession. I have recently taken over the entirety of our family farm crop operations, making me officially the sixth generation to do so on a farm that started in 1898. It would be my desire for my son, if he so chooses, to someday be the seventh generation. Though my son is young, I’m starting transition planning now. Farm succession often gets put off way too late.
Brazil's soybean production area could be overstated
Brazil’s Center West region is on the home stretch, looking to wrap up planting this week while many farmers have been done for some time. Planting pace continues to stay ahead of the historical average, surpassing 80% complete overall this week. Rio Grande do Sul is typically the last state to finish planting, and it is already approaching the halfway mark. Planting pace is now beginning to slow down as we reach the finish line. There will likely be less than 10% left to plant as we reach Dec. 1.
Can the U.S. compete with Brazil?
Exponential Interactive, Inc d/b/a VDX.tv Cookie duration: 90 (days). Data collected and processed: Non-precise location data, IP addresses, Probabilistic identifiers, Device identifiers, Privacy choices, Browsing and interaction data, Users’ profiles more Cookie duration resets each session. View details | Privacy policy Consent Cookie duration: 365 (days).
Rainfall doesn’t favor planting in Brazil
All eyes are on the rainfall maps in Brazil, looking for any indication that the rainy season is coming back to life. September rainfall averages are usually less than 2 inches, but they do allow the farmer to begin the process of restoring moisture in their soil bank. Most farmers will look for at least 3 inches before they feel comfortable shifting to high gear on planting speed. We have heard some reports of late September rains, but we cannot confirm anything substantial.
Cash flow limits Brazil acreage expansion
The USDA report on Monday provided no additional changes to Brazil’s 23/24 crop season. They did reduce Argentina’s soybean production by 0.5 million metric tons and their corn production by 2 MMT. CONAB released their August update a day after the USDA, where they reduced Brazil’s corn production estimates by 0.2 MMT placing them at 115.6 MMT compared to the USDA at 122 MMT.
Less corn from Brazil?
CONAB’s July update left Brazil’s 2023-24 soybean crop estimate virtually unchanged. Digging deeper, the numbers show total production acres increased but were offset by modest reductions to yield. Soybean acres were set at 113.7 million compared to the U.S. 2024-25 acreage at 86.1 million. Brazil’s start to their planting season is still two months away, but we already have seen private estimates putting planted area at 117 million for their upcoming crop.
How low will corn yield go?
There have been many comparisons to the historical flooding taking place in the northwest Corn Belt and how it compares to the infamous flooding in 1993. I am old enough to remember the flood damage it caused, but I had to rely on some of the Commstock analysts with grey hair to provide more context. The 1993 flooding was worse in that it was more widespread. It extended from Kansas all the way over to Southern Illinois.
Transforming E-Commerce Sustainability Through Social Impact Marketing with Ecodrive
Addressing the Sustainability Challenge The environmental challenges we face today are immense. From deforestation and plastic pollution to climate change, the need for effective and scalable solutions is more urgent than ever. Traditional business practices have often contributed to these issues, but e-commerce businesses now have the opportunity to turn the tide by adopting sustainable practices that benefit both the environment and their bottom line.
Will SA weather disrupt market?
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. The market had already begun moving on from Brazil’s soybean harvest as it was nearly 95% complete. Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest state for soybean production, was the last major area to wrap up harvest. RGDS was about to have one of their best seasons in a long time. With roughly 25% of the state remaining to be harvested, massive rains have begun causing apocalyptic type damage to cities and farms, with a reported death toll at 80 people and rising.
Acreage report offers upside potential
Farmers planted too many corn acres last year and the USDA says they intend to begin correcting this mistake in the 2024/25 crop. In its March 28 acreage report, the USDA set corn acres at 90 million compared to the average trade guess of 91.8 million. This led the corn market sharply higher Thursday, trading up 21 cents at one point for the day. While this is market friendly news and we look for additional follow through next week, the long-term trend may still remain unchanged.
USDA on high side of grain forecasts for Brazil
Brazil’s soybean harvest has reached 60% complete overall this week with Mato Grosso on the home stretch, coming in at nearly 95% complete. Yields have been steadily improving in the later planted fields, but according to one farmer in North Central Mato Grosso, nothing “expressive” that would help offset lower yields from earlier planted fields. This producer planted much later and still complained that yields were not what he had hoped.
Brazil planting season slowed by dry forecast
It’s time to take a closer look at Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop planting conditions. We have passed the official starting date of September 16 where principal growing regions are allowed to begin planting. Right now, an intense mass of warm, dry air continues to block moisture in much of Brazil’s main growing region. There is a southern Atlantic ridge that Brazil would like to see move further north.
Brazil farmland tour: Cotton, ethanol and acreage expansion
We completed a ten-day farmland tour of Brazil hosted by Commstock Investments. As far as I know, everyone made it home safe and sound. I pushed them pretty hard. While they might be a little worn out, they can check the Brazilian frontier off their bucket list. We seemed to time our trip perfectly. If we had arrived a week earlier, we would have been met with a lot of rain. The forecast was for a drier second half of January and that appears to be transpiring.
Brazil crop production outlook
Brazil’s CONAB made some minor adjustments to their December crop report. They increased soybean area by 400,000 acres to 107.2 million acres. This was mostly offset by reducing projected soybeans yield by 0.2 bushels from 52.7 bushels per acre to 52.5 bpa. We have pointed out in recent reports that 52.7 bpa would be a new yield record and seems unlikely. Even 52.5 bpa would beat the current yield record set by the 2020-21 crop at 52.4 bpa.
Brazilian soccer interrupts planting pace
I drove for a couple of hours through the western region of Minas Gerais this past weekend, mostly through intermittent rainfall. Crops from the road seemed to be developing well and were off to a good start. We will finish planting on our farm tomorrow. Dry weather has been creeping into parts of Mato Grosso beginning in early November. So far they are about 4 inches below their average accumulated rainfall. Many areas are experiencing their first “veranico” (Indian Summer) of the year.
Brazilian planting: Smooth sailing so far
Brazil’s planting continues to take place under very favorable conditions. I planted some soybeans last Friday on a 1,400-acre field on our family farm and conditions were near perfect. We were no-tilling soybeans into corn stubble. There was heavy corn residue left from last season that would occasionally clog up a row due to recent moisture accumulation. I am not one to brag, but I do think my rows were straighter than the other tractor drivers.
Brazil planting going full throttle
I arrived in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil this week, just in time for planting to begin. Our farm here received around one inch of rain over the weekend, the first large rain of the season. Ideally we would like to get closer to three inches to get enough moisture built up in the subsoil before we begin. The rainy season effectively ended here last April, and so the ground is as hard as concrete and void of all moisture.
Brazilian farmers dodge big rains during planting
The weather forecast continues to provide abundant rainfall to most of Brazil’s growing areas. Central parts of Mato Grosso will receive up to 4 inches this week, with most of the state receiving between 1 and 3 inches.
Planting season underway in South America
The short-term forecast continues to show abundant rainfall through Central parts of Brazil’s crop belt. Large portions of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo will receive up to four inches of rain in the next 10 days. While growers welcome the added precipitation to initiate the planting season, it will also keep farmers out of the field.
Planting season underway in South America
The short-term forecast continues to show abundant rainfall through Central parts of Brazil’s crop belt. Large portions of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo will receive up to four inches of rain in the next 10 days. While growers welcome the added precipitation to initiate the planting season, it will also keep farmers out of the field.
Is $8 corn high enough for you to sell?
Harvest is quickly approaching with many combines already running in the Southern Corn belt. We are likely three weeks away from harvest on our farm in Northwest Iowa. It has been interesting to see how grain buyers are maintaining historically firm basis levels this close to harvest. Some ethanol plants have reportedly offered $1.05 positive basis, giving farmers close to $8 for their corn delivered within September. They will also take that corn with up to 22% moisture with no discounts.
Is $8 corn high enough for you to sell?
Harvest is quickly approaching with many combines already running in the Southern Corn belt. We are likely three weeks away from harvest on our farm in Northwest Iowa. It has been interesting to see how grain buyers are maintaining historically firm basis levels this close to harvest. Some ethanol plants have reportedly offered $1.05 positive basis, giving farmers close to $8 for their corn delivered within September. They will also take that corn with up to 22% moisture with no discounts.
Brazil set to plant soybeans
Farmers in the state of Parana could begin planting soybeans as of last Saturday, Sept. 10. While there has been adequate rainfall, farmers are somewhat hesitant as last year saw drought creep in right after planting, damaging early-planted crops. To add to the drama temperatures are a bit cooler than normal, and producers would like the soils to warm up a bit. Last year’s drought had consequences, resulting in several producers unable to deliver on their contracts.
Brazil set to plant soybeans
Farmers in the state of Parana could begin planting soybeans as of last Saturday, Sept. 10. While there has been adequate rainfall, farmers are somewhat hesitant as last year saw drought creep in right after planting, damaging early-planted crops. To add to the drama temperatures are a bit cooler than normal, and producers would like the soils to warm up a bit. Last year’s drought had consequences, resulting in several producers unable to deliver on their contracts.
Drought wreaks havoc on cotton crop
Readers of my Aug. 11 blog are likely aware that I have been long cotton. I had identified resistance of 97.65 in December cotton and subsequently bought cotton on an upside breakout. Not long after, USDA updated their crop prospects and confirmed our worst suspicions – drought in the U.S. has extremely hampered production prospects. December cotton quickly proceeded to add 20 cents in just one week, topping out at one point at 119.59.
Drought wreaks havoc on cotton crop
Readers of my Aug. 11 blog are likely aware that I have been long cotton. I had identified resistance of 97.65 in December cotton and subsequently bought cotton on an upside breakout. Not long after, USDA updated their crop prospects and confirmed our worst suspicions – drought in the U.S. has extremely hampered production prospects. December cotton quickly proceeded to add 20 cents in just one week, topping out at one point at 119.59.
Brazil leads in soybean acreage
Brazil is primed to plant one of the largest soybean areas yet again. Early projections see soybean area rising to nearly 106 million acres, roughly 4.6% greater than last season. Planted area is one thing, but production is another. Much of these acres are new, with low fertility. Furthermore, meteorologists still predict La Niña climate activity to continue through the end of the year.
Basis premium for old crop sales
It is no secret that harvest basis usually forms seasonal lows, however, those seasonal tendencies have been amplified in the last couple of years. It is the job of the Chicago Board of Trade to perform price discovery, meaning it is always digesting the fundamental information of the market to determine the fair market price at any given time. Lately it seems that more of that discovery is being performed by the cash market versus the CBOT.
The U.S. crop is shrinking
The market hates uncertainty and we are entering perhaps the most ambiguous period of this growing season, as the trade attempts to determine if there will be enough moisture to get crops through August. Additionally, there is tremendous speculation as to whether the UN-negotiated grain corridor will boost exports from Ukraine. Ukraine is between a rock and hard place; it does not want to make things any easier on Russia by removing water mines.
Join the Brazil farmland tour
Brazil is currently harvesting its largest corn crop on record, potentially surpassing 4.5 million bushels. While still less than one-third of the U.S. corn crop, their production has doubled in the last decade. The country’s corn exports have quadrupled in that same time frame, closing the gap between themselves at number two for exports and the U.S. at number one. The USDA is already projecting an even larger Brazilian crop for next year.
What bullish and bearish factors are most worth watching?
Overwhelming negative sentiment in the markets has been frustrating to live through recently. Traders have chosen to focus on the overall macroeconomic situation consumers are facing with rising interest rates and a slowing economy. This week’s announcement that inflation for June’s year-to-year level increased to 9.1% is not going to help things. This will likely push the Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively, perhaps supplying more substance for the bears to keep a lid on rallies.
Derecho: Now a household name
We had a mini-derecho in Northwest Iowa this week that also impacted parts of SE South Dakota. It was not near as bad as the derecho that moved across the Corn Belt in 2020. When I inspected the farm on Wednesday of this week, we found the corn had been tipped over hard but was not flattened. I am told that within a couple of weeks it will straighten back out again but until it does, it is somewhat disheartening to look at. Others were not as lucky as some fields were pancaked.
USDA report confirms: We are maxed out on acres
We learned yesterday that bullish information and how the market responds to bullish information are two very different things. Starting out, the highly anticipated June Quarterly Stocks report came in very close to the average trade estimates for all three of the principal crops. The big news, however, was in the updated acreage estimates with USDA lowering soybean acres by 2.6 million down to 88.3 million acres. This was well below even the lowest trade forecast.
How much heat can corn stand?
I sometimes joke that we need to rush to get planting done just so there is enough time to do it again. That was the case this year where we planted soybeans ahead of corn. It has worked in the past but unfortunately not this year. An early May frost came through and singed the beans in parts of Northwest Iowa. Enough so that we replanted up to 70% of those acres. One of our brokers in Missouri spent much of last weekend replanting beans from too much rain.
A closer look at Brazil’s Safrinha harvest
Mato Grosso is leading the way with Brazil’s second crop corn harvest. We expect them to surpass 10% this week. Surrounding states like Minas Gerais and Parana have not yet begun and won’t get going until later this month. Farmers with storage will be eager to get the crop out soon so as not to lose moisture weight. As the crop has reached maturity and the rainy season has ended, things turn bone dry.
Could the world run out of corn?
By next week the planting report will show us that most of the U.S. crop will have been planted. Then we can turn our attention to crop progress. Our main focus will be growing this crop as the market is going to need every bushel that it can get. For the USDA’s initial 181 bushel per acre yield goal to be reached, planting conditions needed to be near perfect – and that hasn’t happened.
Ukraine could quickly begin exporting when war ends
On Feb. 24, Viktor Korobko was awakened by the sound of bombs exploding only a couple of miles from his hometown of Odessa, Ukraine. He immediately gathered up his family of 5 and drove them across the border to Moldova, and later relocated them to Romania. Korobko is a director of one of the oldest physical commodity trading firms in Ukraine.
Brazil’s Safrinha crop improves with each day
It’s been another week where Brazil’s Safrinha second crop corn saw favorable weather with adequate rainfall. As much as 30% of the second crop of corn is considered “safe” and past the critical point as it has enough moisture to finish its current grain filling stage. With adequate rainfall for the next three weeks, that percentage could increase to 75% by the end of the month. If that happens, Brazil is likely assured to reach its projection of 86 MMT for the second crop.
Much at stake for Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop
Mato Grosso farmers wrapped up their soybean harvest this week. Despite some minor setbacks from rain damage, Mato Grosso is set to produce another record crop of roughly 1.44 billion bushels. Several states in the MAPITOBA region (east of Mato Grosso) also complain of quality damage due to excess rainfall, especially in the state of Tocantins, but they are still expected to produce record crops as well. Overall, Brazil should be approximately two-thirds complete this week with the harvest.
Will Ukraine plant corn, export wheat this year?
The markets continue to focus on the Russian-Ukraine war, with U.S. military experts estimating the war could last several months. If this were to happen, the 2022 Ukrainian planting season would mostly likely be severely impaired. The ideal window for their country’s barley planting begins now. Planting for corn, soybeans and sunflowers are just a few weeks away. Some have speculated that the land will still get farmed regardless of the war.
Now may not be the best time to lock in new crop sales
Back in November, I saved a social media post made by a farmer who seemed proud that he had pulled the trigger on new crop sales. The post reads “Sold 5,000 bushels at $5.08 new crop 2022, right or wrong it’s better than the 5,000 I sold last year at 3.30 for the 21 crop.” My immediate thought at that time was, “How do you know?” It is unlikely he had all of his costs locked in by that time. How does he know that $5 corn will be more profitable than $3.30 unless you have your costs locked down?
Brazilian rains slow soybean harvest, help second crop corn
The soybean harvest continues to move swiftly in Mato Grosso, reaching 50% complete this week, with the second crop of corn following close behind at nearly 45% complete. Rainfall continues to envelope most of the state this past week and more rain is forecast for this weekend. While this may slow up the soybean harvest, overall these rains are welcomed as it guarantees solid germination for what has been planted so far for the second crop of corn.
Why South America's drought is different this year
Scattered rainfall has been finding its way back into parts of Southern Brazil where it is needed the most. While the rainfalls are not isolated showers, they also are not widespread soaking rains. Nevertheless, this will work to help stabilize parts of the later planted crops but will do little to nothing to repair the damage to summer crop corn and early planted soybeans. It will also help to ease against the oppressive heat recorded last week.
How do Brazil drought losses stack up?
CONAB, Brazil’s National Supply Company (federal agriculture agency), released its January report this week. While it reduced the size of the country’s soybean crop, as we expected, it did not reduce it nearly enough. CONAB pegged the soybean crop at 140.5 MMT, down nearly 2.3 MMT from last month. CONAB seems well behind the curve as the state of Paraná says their crop has lost nearly 8 MMT alone.
Brazil road trip reveals two very different crops
My recent trip confirmed what I had been hearing: that the north half of the country of Brazil looks great, while the southern half is struggling. To start with, you don’t see a bad soybean field in Mato Grosso. And that is saying something, because it is a very large area. It was supposed to represent roughly 27% of Brazil’s soybean output, but if production in the Southern states fall off, it could end up representing much more than that.
Show More
loading
Actions
Is this you?
As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.Get in touch with Matthew
Contact Matthew, search articles and posts on X, monitor coverage, and track replies from one place.
Learn more about Muck Rack