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The country’s politics are getting a boost of uncharacteristic urgency from coming Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with even the constitutional “debt brake” up for grabs. This week’s CIO Weekly Perspectives comes from guest contributors Patrick Barbe and Maximilian Korell. Turnout for Germany’s election a week ago was 82.5%, the highest since reunification.
By Maximilian Korell Euro weakness versus the U.S. dollar has generated excitement in the markets, but how much worse could things get? Despite the euro’s 10% depreciation versus the U.S. dollar so far this year (as of mid-August), the break of parity between the two currencies is what has caught investors’ attention. How did we get here?
Markets seemingly are pricing in aggressive future rate hikes for Korea and other selected economies. This makes the bar high for central bankers to overdeliver, and offers investors carry opportunities. After a sharp leg higher in longer-term yields during the first quarter, market participants recently shifted their focus toward the longer-term growth outlook for the global economy.
After 16 years, German politics are about to change—which will have important implications for domestic growth and the wider Eurozone. After almost 16 years in office, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to step down in September. For a long time, the coalition between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) gave investors steady domestic and European policy without many surprises.
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