Tim Culpan’s Position

Good Evening from Taipei, This year’s two biggest tech stories will set the tone for 2025. The first is the continued rise of generative AI, and the escalating costs & challenges of building and delivering those models. The second is the struggles and doubts about the future of America’s pioneering chipmaker, Intel. At the intersection of these two developments is TSMC. The Taiwanese company is the key enabler of AI through its advanced chip manufacturing, and the largest threat to Intel’s survival.

Good Morning from Taipei, Three months ago I published two charts comparing TSMC and Intel and their respective CEOs. Pat Gelsinger was still employed and the wheels had not yet fallen off the Intel wagon. But I sensed he was overpaid. Perhaps I was being a little harsh. Sure, Gelsinger’s compensation package was exorbitant, but the Board of Directors signed off on it so they’re equally to blame.

Good Evening from Taipei, Robin Li, Eddie Wu and Pony Ma are three of the longest-serving founders in technology history. All three men started building their empires at a time when Mark Zuckerberg was still a schoolboy. Li and Ma’s quarter century leading Baidu and Tencent respectively are particularly impressive. Wu, a co-founder of Alibaba but only a recent entrant to the CEO club, has also seen a lot. Today, their businesses are boring. In the US, boring would be a corporate death sentence.

Good Morning from Taipei, China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency is vastly overstated and misunderstood. But still, there’s lots of opinions about an imminent chipocalypse based largely on reports that go unquestioned. A persistent belief is that US curbs sparked Beijing to push for an indigenous semiconductor industry. That’s pure rubbish. A detailed and fascinating report published recently by Gregory C.

Good Morning from Taipei, Thanksgiving is a very American holiday, for obvious reasons, and my felicitations to those who celebrate it. This got me thinking about all the other unique holidays across the globe, and who gets the most. Dragon Boat Festival is my personal fave because it falls in Summer. Public holidays, as distinct from annual leave entitlements, do vary across the globe. But not as much as I’d imagined.

Good Evening from Taipei, Incoming president Donald Trump made a surprise announcement this week. Its impact on global supply chains and US business deserves a close look. We all knew that China was in Trump’s sights with constant promises to raise tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy. On the campaign trail he pledged to slap a 60% import tax on goods coming from China and 10% on the rest of the world.

Good Morning from Taipei, Baidu reported earnings late Thursday, bringing to a close earnings season for the bulk of US and Chinese technology companies. AI was the hot topic across the board, from the chip designers and manufacturers to the cloud-service providers and internet companies. One thing that stood out is just how badly Chinese giants have been affected by the macroeconomic trends at home.

Good Morning From Taipei, Let’s not kid ourselves. Nobody knows what President Trump II will do about trade, tariffs, and his love-hate relationship with China. Sure, he’s threatened to increased import duties, yet he’s also said that Xi Jinping is a friend (before Covid). All this talk, including the implicit claim that America is not great, leads many to believe the US is somehow on the backfoot on trade. That’s just not true.

Good Evening from Taipei, Thanks for joining me on this journey. Now that I am able to write independently, I can share with you some news about the next major project I’m working on. I recently signed a deal with a US publisher to write a book on Taiwan’s unique place in the world. The World’s Smallest Superpower By Tim Culpan That superpower is, of course, Taiwan.