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Articles by Michelle Rey
Will HollyFrontier’s Refining Margin Rise in Q2?
HollyFrontier’s refining index HollyFrontier (HFC) earns most of its income from its refining segment. Refining margins are the main determinant of the company’s refining earnings. HollyFrontier’s refining index values are benchmark crack indicators in the areas where the company operates. HollyFrontier publishes the index values for three regions—Midcontinent, Rockies, and Southwest.
Refining Stocks Slump: Who's Plunged the Most in the Past Month?
Returns of refining stocks In this series, we’ll evaluate the returns of six US refining companies over the past month. Refining stocks have fallen in the period. Phillips 66 (PSX) stock has fallen the least, by ~8%, since May 3, 2019. Delek US Holdings (DK) has fallen less than 15% in the same period. HollyFrontier (HFC), Valero Energy (VLO), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) have fallen in the range of 15%–20%, and PBF Energy (PBF) has seen the sharpest fall of ~21% in the past month.
Will Marathon Petroleum’s Refining Earnings Rise in Q2?
Will Marathon Petroleum’s Refining Earnings Rise in Q2? More Marathon Petroleum Expands with Its Capex and Acquisition(Continued from Prior Part)Refining earnings indicatorIn this part, we’ll discuss the trend in Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) refining earnings.Marathon Petroleum’s refining earnings are
Does Marathon Petroleum Have High Debt on Its Balance Sheet?
Does Marathon Petroleum Have High Debt on Its Balance Sheet? More Marathon Petroleum Expands with Its Capex and Acquisition(Continued from Prior Part)Net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratioIn this part, we’ll discuss Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) debt position.Marathon Petroleum’s net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA
Marathon Petroleum’s Cash Flow Position in Q1
Marathon Petroleum’s Cash Flow Position in Q1 More Marathon Petroleum Expands with Its Capex and Acquisition(Continued from Prior Part)Marathon Petroleum’s cash flowIn the first quarter, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) had $1623 million in cash from operations. The company had cash outflows of $1241
Marathon Petroleum: Stronger Refining and Midstream Segments
Marathon Petroleum: Stronger Refining and Midstream Segments More Marathon Petroleum Expands with Its Capex and Acquisition(Continued from Prior Part)Refining segment growth activitiesIn this part, we’ll discuss Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) refining and midstream segments’ growth projects.In the refining
Marathon Petroleum Expands with Its Capex and Acquisition
Marathon Petroleum Expands with Its Capex and Acquisition More Marathon Petroleum Expands with Its Capex and AcquisitionCapex in the first quarterMarathon Petroleum (MPC) continues to march on its growth trajectory with its organic capex activities. In the first quarter, Marathon Petroleum incurred a capex of
Marathon Petroleum Expands with Its Capex and Acquisition
Capex in the first quarter Marathon Petroleum (MPC) continues to march on its growth trajectory with its organic capex activities. In the first quarter, Marathon Petroleum incurred a capex of $1331 million, which represents 78% YoY growth. The refining and marketing and retail segments accounted for 30% and 5% of the total capex, respectively, in the first quarter.
Marathon Petroleum Stock Faces Downgrade and Target Cuts
Marathon Petroleum Stock Faces Downgrade and Target Cuts More Marathon Petroleum Expands with Its Capex and Acquisition(Continued from Prior Part)Marathon PetroleumMarathon Petroleum (MPC) is covered by 17 analysts. Among the analysts, 16 or 94% recommended a “buy” or “strong buy” rating on the stock.
Integrated Stocks’ Dividend Yields Rise: Which Look Attractive?
Integrated energy stocks’ dividend yields Integrated energy stocks have fallen in the past year and the current quarter, boosting their dividend yields. Let’s evaluate six global integrated energy stocks’ dividend yields. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) has the highest dividend yield, followed by BP (BP) and Total (TOT). All three stocks have dividend yields above 5%. Chevron (CVX) has the lowest dividend yield.
BP: Lower Oil Prices Caused the Stock to Fall 5% in Q2
BP stock, oil prices, and markets So far, BP (BP) stock has fallen 5.4% in the second quarter due to a fall in oil prices. WTI, the benchmark crude oil, has fallen 3.7% in the second quarter. Equity markets have fallen marginally. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the market indicator, has fallen 0.1% in the second quarter. BP stock has fallen In April, WTI rose 6.3%, SPY rose 4.1%, and BP stock rose 0.1%. So far in May, WTI has fallen 9.4%, SPY has fallen 4.0%, and BP stock has fallen 5.5%.
BP: Lower Oil Prices Caused the Stock to Fall 5% in Q2
BP: Lower Oil Prices Caused the Stock to Fall 5% in Q2 More BP: Lower Oil Prices Caused the Stock to Fall 5% in Q2BP stock, oil prices, and marketsSo far, BP (BP) stock has fallen 5.4% in the second quarter due to a fall in oil prices. WTI, the benchmark crude oil, has fallen 3.7% in the second quarter.
Marathon Petroleum Is Expected to Post the Largest Gains
Marathon Petroleum Is Expected to Post the Largest Gains More Which Refining Stocks Could Post More Gains?(Continued from Prior Part)Marathon Petroleum’s implied gainsMarathon Petroleum (MPC) is a US refiner with refining and marketing, midstream, and retail segments. The company is ranked first among the
Shell: Stronger in Q1 Due to Its Strategy
Shell’s strategy In the first quarter, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) strengthened its financials by focusing on the capex, divestments, operating costs, and new projects. Shell optimized capital spending, exited non-strategic assets or positions, lowered its operating costs, and increased its cash flows by delivering new projects.
Have Valero’s Crack Indicators Surged in Q2?
Valero’s refining crack indicators Valero Energy (VLO) makes most of its earnings from its Refining segment. Refining margins are the primary determinant of the company’s refining earnings. If we review its crack indicators, we could get a better sense of the direction of its refining margin in the current quarter. Valero announces regional crack indicators for its four operating regions: the USGC (US Gulf Coast), the US Midcontinent, the USWC (US West Coast), and the North Atlantic.
MPC, VLO, HFC, and PSX: Beats and Misses in Q1
Refining stocks’ beats and misses Recently, refining stocks including Marathon Petroleum (MPC), HollyFrontier (HFC), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) posted their first-quarter earnings. While Marathon Petroleum missed analysts’ earnings estimates, other companies beat the estimates.
How Chevron’s Production Volumes Stack Up
How Chevron’s Production Volumes Stack Up More Chevron Won't Make a Counteroffer to Anadarko(Continued from Prior Part)Shareholder returnsChevron (CVX) has decided not to make a counteroffer to Anadarko Petroleum (APC). The company believes that any counteroffer would be costly and would erode
Chevron Won’t Make a Counteroffer to Anadarko
Chevron Won’t Make a Counteroffer to Anadarko More Chevron Won't Make a Counteroffer to AnadarkoNo counterbid from ChevronChevron (CVX) has decided not to make a counteroffer to Anadarko Petroleum (APC) in response to Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) revised bid. On April 12, Chevron agreed to acquire
MPC’s Q1 Earnings Fall Short of Analysts' Expectations
MPC’s first-quarter top and bottom lines Marathon Petroleum (MPC) posted its first-quarter earnings results on May 8. In the first quarter, Marathon Petroleum posted revenue of $28.6 billion, which surpassed Wall Street analysts’ estimates. In the quarter, the company reported EPS of -$0.01. However, adjusting for special items related to gains, tax adjustments, and transaction-related costs, MPC’s EPS stood at -$0.09 compared to analysts’ estimate of $0.05.
Anadarko Views Occidental's Bid as Superior to Chevron’s Bid
The bidding battle for Anadarko In an interesting twist of events, on May 6, 2019, Anadarko Petroleum’s (APC) board of directors determined a revised bid from Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to be superior to that of Chevron (CVX). Let’s review both bids in more detail. Chevron’s bid As per Chevron’s bid, Anadarko’s shareholders are expected to receive 0.3869 shares of Chevron and $16.25 in cash for each APC share. Chevron will issue ~200 million shares.
Phillips 66 Focuses on Midstream Expansion and Refining Upgrades
Phillips 66’s capex Phillips 66 (PSX) aims at strengthening its diversified earnings model by expanding its Midstream segment and modernizing its Refining segment. The company’s adjusted capex stood at $675 million in the first quarter of 2019, 62% of which was in the Midstream segment. Phillips 66 has many ongoing projects in the Midstream segment that are expected to enhance its earnings. Comparatively, Valero Energy’s (VLO) capex for the first quarter stood at $726 million.
Shell’s Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Segmental Earnings Rose
Shell’s first-quarter earnings Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) reported its first-quarter earnings on May 2. The company’s earnings beat the estimates. To learn more, read Shell’s Q1 Upstream Earnings Rose despite Tough Conditions. Sign up for Bagels & Stox, our witty take on the top market and investment news, straight to your inbox! Whether you’re a serious investor or just want to be informed, Bagels & Stox will be your favorite email.
BP's Q1 Earnings Results Surpass Analysts’ Estimates
BP’s first-quarter performance BP (BP) reported its first-quarter earnings results on April 30. Its first-quarter revenue stood at $66.3 billion, surpassing Wall Street analysts’ estimate by ~9%. Its first-quarter adjusted EPS (earnings per American depositary share) stood at $0.70, which exceeded analysts’ estimate of $0.67 by ~4%. However, BP’s adjusted EPS fell 10% YoY (year-over-year) in the first quarter.
Valero Energy’s Stock Price Forecast after Its Q1 Earnings
Valero Energy’s Stock Price Forecast after Its Q1 Earnings More Valero's Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Stock Rose 4%(Continued from Prior Part)Implied volatility in Valero Valero Energy (VLO) posted its first-quarter earnings, which beat analysts’ estimates. The stock reacted positively to the news. In this
ExxonMobil’s Upstream and Downstream Earnings Fell in Q1
ExxonMobil’s upstream earnings ExxonMobil (XOM) posted its first-quarter earnings on April 26. The company missed its earnings estimate. To learn more, read ExxonMobil’s Q1 Earnings Fall Short of Wall Street Estimates. Sign up for Bagels & Stox, our witty take on the top market and investment news, straight to your inbox! Whether you’re a serious investor or just want to be informed, Bagels & Stox will be your favorite email.
Chevron Posts Dull Q1 Numbers, Upstream Earnings Fall
Chevron’s first-quarter Upstream earnings Chevron (CVX) posted its first-quarter earnings results on April 26. In the quarter, the company surpassed Wall Street analysts’ consensus earnings estimate. For more information, read Chevron’s Q1 Earnings Fell, Beat the Estimate. Now let’s look at the company’s segmental earnings in more detail. Ready to put your morning scrolling to use?
Chevron’s Q1 Earnings Fell, Beat the Estimate
26 Apr Chevron’s estimated and actual performance Chevron (CVX) posted its first-quarter results on April 26. In the first quarter, Chevron’s revenues at $35.2 billion missed analysts’ estimate. In the first quarter, Chevron’s adjusted EPS was $1.39, which beat analysts’ estimated EPS of $1.30 by ~7%. However, Chevron’s adjusted EPS was ~27% lower than its adjusted EPS in the first quarter of 2018.
How Will Chevon’s Dividend Payment Trend in Q2?
How Will Chevon’s Dividend Payment Trend in Q2? More Chevron’s Q1 Earnings Fell, Beat the Estimate(Continued from Prior Part)Chevron’s shareholder returns Chevron (CVX) released its first-quarter earnings on April 26. The company paid $2.2 billion in dividends in the first quarter. In the first
Chevron’s Q1 Earnings Fell, Beat the Estimate
Chevron’s Q1 Earnings Fell, Beat the Estimate More Chevron’s Q1 Earnings Fell, Beat the EstimateChevron’s estimated and actual performance Chevron (CVX) posted its first-quarter results on April 26. In the first quarter, Chevron’s revenues at $35.2 billion missed analysts’ estimate. In the
Total’s E&P Earnings Fall, but Its Refining Earnings Surge in Q1
Total’s first-quarter revenue and earnings Total (TOT) posted its first-quarter earnings results on April 26, 2019. Its revenue rose 3% YoY (year-over-year) to $51.2 billion in the quarter. However, Total’s adjusted net earnings fell 4% YoY to $2.8 billion in the quarter. Total’s adjusted EPS stood at $1.02, 6% lower than its adjusted EPS in the first quarter of 2018. Ready to put your morning scrolling to use?
ExxonMobil’s Q1 Earnings Fall Short of Wall Street Estimates
ExxonMobil’s Q1 Earnings Fall Short of Wall Street Estimates More ExxonMobil’s Q1 Earnings Fall Short of Wall Street EstimatesExxonMobil’s first-quarter performance versus estimatesExxonMobil (XOM) posted its first-quarter results on April 26, 2019. The company’s revenues came in at $63.6 billion, which
Valero’s Q1 Earnings Surpass Analysts' Estimate
Estimated and actual performances Valero Energy (VLO) posted its first-quarter earnings results on April 25. In the quarter, its revenue exceeded Wall Street analysts’ mean estimate by ~13%. Its adjusted EPS stood at $0.34, which surpassed analysts’ consensus EPS estimate of $0.23 by ~48%. Valero’s first-quarter EPS were, however, 66% lower than its adjusted EPS in the first quarter of 2018. Ready to put your morning scrolling to use?
Will Shell’s Q1 Earnings Meet Wall Street Estimates?
Q4 2018 estimated and actual performance Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is slated to release its Q1 2019 results on May 2. Before we review the Q1 2019 estimates, let’s recap Shell’s Q4 2018 performance compared to forecasts. Sign up for Bagels & Stox, our witty take on the top market and investment news, straight to your inbox! Whether you’re a serious investor or just want to be informed, Bagels & Stox will be your favorite email.
Will Marathon Petroleum’s Q1 Earnings Rise?
Will Marathon Petroleum’s Q1 Earnings Rise? More Will Marathon Petroleum’s Q1 Earnings Rise?Fourth-quarter performance Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is scheduled to report its first-quarter results on May 8. Before we proceed with the first-quarter estimates, we’ll recap Marathon Petroleum’s
Marathon Petroleum’s Refining Earnings in Q1
Marathon Petroleum’s Refining Earnings in Q1 More Will Marathon Petroleum’s Q1 Earnings Rise?(Continued from Prior Part)Marathon Petroleum’s refining earnings Before proceeding with Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) refining earnings outlook for the first quarter, we’ll review Marathon
Has Short Interest in Chevron Plunged?
Has Short Interest in Chevron Plunged? More Why Wall Street Expects Lower Q1 Earnings for Chevron(Continued from Prior Part)Short interest in Chevron Short interest in Chevron (CVX) has fallen by 0.22 percentage points since January 2, 2019, to the current level of 0.90%. Usually, a fall in
A Surprise Megadeal: Chevron to Acquire Anadarko
Chevron to acquire Anadarko Chevron (CVX) has agreed to acquire energy company Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC). As per the agreement, Chevron will buy all the outstanding shares of Anadarko in a cash and equity deal. This acquisition is expected to enhance Chevron’s upstream portfolio and expand its midstream asset base. In pre-market trading, Anadarko stock surged by ~33%, while Chevron stock fell about 3%. Ready to put your morning scrolling to use?
Will Chevron’s Upstream Earnings Fall in Q1 2019?
Will Chevron’s Upstream Earnings Fall in Q1 2019? More Why Wall Street Expects Lower Q1 Earnings for Chevron(Continued from Prior Part)Segmental analysisBefore we take a look at Chevron’s (CVX) first-quarter segmental outlook, let’s briefly consider the company’s fourth-quarter segmental
What to Expect from Phillips 66’s Q1 Results
Phillips 66’s estimated and actual performance Phillips 66 (PSX) is expected to post its first-quarter results on April 30. Before we proceed with the first-quarter estimates, let’s recap Phillips 66’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the expectations. Phillips 66’s fourth-quarter revenues at $29.8 billion beat analysts’ estimate by ~5%.
What to Expect from ExxonMobil’s Q1 Results
Q4 2018 estimated and actual performance ExxonMobil (XOM) is expected to post its Q1 2019 results on April 26. Before we proceed with the Q1 2019 estimates, let’s recap ExxonMobil’s Q4 2018 performance versus estimates. ExxonMobil’s revenues, at $71.9 billion, missed Wall Street estimates by ~7%. However, the company’s fourth-quarter adjusted EPS stood at $1.4, surpassing Wall Street analysts’ estimated EPS of $1.1 by about ~31%. Plus, ExxonMobil’s adjusted EPS rose 60% year-over-year in Q4 2018.
Valero Energy: Do Analysts Expect Dull Numbers in Q1?
Performance versus the expectation Valero Energy (VLO) is scheduled to publish its first-quarter results on April 25. Before we proceed with the first-quarter estimates, let’s recap the company’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to analysts’ estimates. In the fourth quarter, Valero Energy’s revenues beat analysts’ mean estimate by ~20%. The company’s adjusted EPS was $2.1, which beat analysts’ estimated EPS of $1.1 by ~98%. Valero Energy’s EPS rose 83% YoY in the fourth quarter.
XOM, CVX, Shell, and BP Are Gearing Up to Report Their Q1 Results
Integrated energy companies’ first-quarter estimates In this series, we’ll rank integrated energy companies on the estimated YoY (year-over-year) changes in their EPS in the first quarter of 2019. We’ll consider the four leading integrated energy players: ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and BP (BP). WAKE UP WITH BAGELS & STOX, OUR NEW EMAIL THAT ENTERTAINS AND INFORMS YOU BEFORE THE DAY STARTS.
Why Did XOM, CVX, RDS.A, and BP Rise in Q1?
Integrated energy stocks In the first quarter from January 2–March 29, ExxonMobil (XOM) stock rose 15.9%—the highest among its peers including BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A). BP rose 13.3% in the first quarter. Chevron and Shell rose 11.3% and 5.5%, respectively, during the same period. Markets and oil in the first quarter Since the markets and oil impact integrated energy stocks, we’ll discuss their performances in the first quarter.
XOM, CVX, RDS.A, and BP: Price Range Forecast in Q2
XOM, CVX, RDS.A, and BP: Price Range Forecast in Q2 More Analyzing XOM, CVX, RDS.A, and BP in Q1(Continued from Prior Part)Implied volatility in integrated stocks The implied volatility in integrated energy shares fell in the first quarter. ExxonMobil (XOM) saw the highest fall in its implied volatility
Why Did XOM, CVX, RDS.A, and BP Rise in Q1?
Why Did XOM, CVX, RDS.A, and BP Rise in Q1? More Analyzing XOM, CVX, RDS.A, and BP in Q1Integrated energy stocksIn the first quarter from January 2–March 29, ExxonMobil (XOM) stock rose 15.9%—the highest among its peers including BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A). BP rose
Could Falling US Consumer Confidence Mean a Recession Ahead?
US consumer confidence The Conference Board updated the US consumer confidence index yesterday. The confidence index hit a 16-month low at 124.1 in March. Economists were expecting it to come in at 132. The index came in at 131.4 the previous month. It was down for the fourth time in the last five months.
Valero's Valuation Is Higher than the Peer Average
Valero’s valuation Valero Energy (VLO) is trading at a forward PE of 10.5x, higher than the peer average of 9.8x. Delek US Holdings (DK), HollyFrontier (HFC), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are trading below the peer average at forward PEs of 8.2x, 9.4x, and 9.0x, respectively. Valero stock is trading at a forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value-to-EBITDA) ratio of 6.3x, again above the peer average of 5.8x. Phillips 66 (PSX) is also trading above the peer average at an EV-to-EBITDA of 6.8x.
Why Hawaiian Airlines Stock Has Plunged Over 16% this Month
Trading near a 52-week low Hawaiian Airlines stock (HA) has plunged over 16% this month so far. The stock hit a 52-week low of $24.24 on March 25. At yesterday’s closing price of $24.97, the stock has lost 5.5% of its value year-to-date. The plunge in Hawaiian Airlines stock during both periods contrasts with the performance of major US indexes. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have gained 1.2% and ~2%, respectively, in March so far while the Dow Jones is down ~1%.
Apple Stock Continues to Fall after Service Bets Are Raised
Apple’s new services On Monday, Apple (AAPL) unveiled its video streaming and news subscription services at a special event at the Steve Jobs Theater in Cupertino, California. Along with these two new services, Apple TV+ and Apple News+, the company announced game subscription services, Apple Arcade, and a credit card partnership with Goldman Sachs, Apple Card. Apple stock Since Apple announced these new services, its stock has traded on a negative note.
Ford to Exit the Russian Market: What You Need to Know
Ford Motor Company Today, the second-largest American automaker, Ford Motor Company (F), announced a restructuring plan for the Russian market. In Russia, Ford operates through a joint venture with its partner Sollers PJSC. Let’s take a quick look at some of the key highlights of Ford’s new restructuring plans announced today. Ford’s restructuring efforts Under the new restructuring plan, Ford will stop producing passenger vehicles (XLY) by the end of June 2019.
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