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Articles by Mick Shrimpton
Milwaukee Homicides Soar - What Is Going On In the Murderous Midwest?
While the recent wave of violence in Milwaukee can be written off as an ephemeral reaction to another fatal police shooting (see "One Person Shot, Officer Injured In Second Night Of Milwaukee Violence Despite State Of Emergency") it is quite clear that long-term trends suggest that violent crimes are on the rise in metropolitan areas of the Midwest.
Stocks Rally - Is Brexit Systemic Risks Contained?
Equity markets globally have rebounded to their pre-Brexit levels and volatility in financial markets is the lowest that it has been for a month. Even the precious metals rally has taken a breather. Are the markets suggesting that the fallout from Brexit is less than previously thought and that the systemic risk posed by the UK leaving the EU is contained.
The Cyprus Template for Bail-ins Comes to Canada, Next Up the US
Canada will introduce legislation to implement a "bail-in" regime for systemically important banks that would shift some of the responsibility for propping up failing institutions to creditors. The proposed plan outlined in the federal budget released on Tuesday would allow authorities to convert eligible long-term debt of a failing lender into common shares in order to recapitalize the bank, allowing it to remain operating.
Trump Blasts Muslims After Brussels Attack: "We Cannot Let These People Into Our Country"
At the risk of being crass, we've said on several occasions that the Paris attacks, the San Bernardino massacre, and the wave of sexual assaults that have swept Western Europe are the best things that ever happened to Donald Trump's presidential campaign. It seems exceedingly likely that Trump had very little conception of what was going on in the Balkans when he stormed onto the political scene last summer with inflammatory comments about Mexican immigrants.
Oil Rips On Yet Another Doha "Freeze" Meeting Headline (As Predicted)
Around 915ET we tweeted the need for an OPEC meeting headline as oil prices started to accelerate losses. 70 minutes later, the market's "wish" was granted when Algeria (yes, seriously) announced they will attend and Libya said it would not... of course any headline is a buying opportunity and the algos went wild... We tweeted... WTI CRUDE DROPS 1.6% TO SESSION LOW; S&P FUTURES DOWN 11PTS. quick, need some OPEC meeting headlines — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 22, 2016 And then, headlines hit...
JPM's Striking Forecast: ECB Could Cut Rates To -4.5%; BOJ To -3.45%; Fed To -1.3%
One week ago, in the aftermath of Japan joining the NIRP club, we wondered how low Kuroda could cut rates if he was so inclined. The answer was surprising: according to a Nomura analysis the lower bound was limited by gold storage costs. This is what the Japanese bank, whose profit was recently slammed by Japan's ultra low rates, said: "theoretically, negative interest rates' lower bound depends partly on the cost of holding cash in the form of physical currency.
"No Brainer" Apple Extends Losses Despite Analyst Pleas That Guidance "Better Than Feared"
Apple's guidance was considerably worse than expected, but always spinning positively, analysts proclaim somehows that it was "better than feared." It appears not as AAPL is now down almost 4% despite every sell-side analyst's pleas that "the bottom is in." The ultimate "no brainer" stock is now down over 28% from its highs last year and analyst targets are still at $137 on average - a nearly 50% gain from here.
China Weakens Yuan For 9th Consecutive Day, Longest Streak Since 2008
In the first two weeks of August 2008 (just a month before Lehman imploded), as tensions built in US financial markets, China weakened the Yuan for 10 straight days. Tonight, China just extended its streak of weakening the Yuan fix to 9 days (for an aggregate 1.4% devaluation, the largest such drop outside of August's devaluation in history). This pushes the Yuan back to June 2011 levels. as CNYUSD has been in freefall since The IMF... Why it "might" matter... Now where have we seen that before...
Russia Sees No Oil Price Recovery In The Coming 7 Years
Oil has given up all the overnight gains as we head towards the open and algos wake up to the reality that Russia's deputy FinMin believes... “Lower for longer” is becoming the catch phrase of the global oil industry, as an increasing number of energy executives and government officials alike see no opportunity for prices to rebound to their levels of mid-2014.
These Are The Biggest Hedge Fund Casualties From The ECB's "Shocking" Disappointment
When last Thursday morning the ECB, widely expected to unleash an epic bazooka, instead revealed the tiniest of water pistols, it did not only impair its own credibility and "forward guidance", it sent a shockwave through the markets by not only slamming European equity markets, but by send the Euro currency soaring by 3% or the most since 2009. To be sure, Mario Draghi did try to engage in some unprecedented market jawboning, when he admitted he was trying to talk markets up ("Not really...
M&A Spikes to Craziest Frenzy Ever, even as Bottom Falls out of Riskiest End
Pfizer’s revenues have been declining for what will be four years in a row by the end of 2015. Its liabilities have ballooned to $104 billion. Its “goodwill” and “intangible assets” – future expenses temporarily parked on the balance sheet – have swollen to $95 billion. It has so much debt in relationship to its real assets that its tangible stockholder equity is a negative $24 billion. It’s facing a “patent cliff,” as new generic drugs are eating into sales and profits of its old drugs.
Atlanta Fed Q4 GDP Forecast Tumbles From 2.5% To 1.9%
Just a few days after we got a very disappointing Q3 GDP print of only 1.5% annualized growth, of which healthcare spending accounted for over a third, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast, which has traditionally been the most accurate indicator of real-time GDP swings, was just slashed by nearly a quarter from the 2.5% as originally reported on October 30, to just 1.9%.
Durable Goods Orders Tumble For 6th Consecutive Month As Core Capex Plunges Most Since 2009
After a significant downward revsision to August's data (to -2.3% MoM), September Durable Goods New Orders dropped 1.2% (better than the expected 1.5% drop only due to historical revisions) for the 5th monthly drop this year. Year-over-Year, Durable Goods orders tumbled 3.6%, accelerating weakness from August amid major revisions. This is the 6th consecutive YoY drop, something not experienced outside a recession.
PIMCO's Balls On The Fed: There Will Be No Escape From ZIRP
Last month, the vice president of the St. Louis Fed Stephen D. Williamson did a funny thing: he released a white paper which dared to suggest that Ben Bernanke was wrong about QE and that not only was there no demonstrable link between trillions in asset purchases and positive economic outcomes, inflation expectations have actually declined across markets where central bank asset purchases are largest in terms of GDP.
New Snowden Leak Exposes AT&T's "Extreme Willingness To Help" NSA Spy On Americans
Newly disclosed NSA files expose the spy agency's relationship through the years with American telecoms companies. As NYTimes reports, The National Security Agency’s ability to spy on vast quantities of Internet traffic passing through the United States has relied on its extraordinary, decades-long partnership with a single company: the telecom giant AT&T.
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