Mike Breen
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Articles by Mike Breen
STX wins CFTC approval for sports prediction market exchange
Sports-focused trading platform STX has secured approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a federally regulated prediction market exchange and clearinghouse, clearing the way for its planned expansion into the US. The Nov. 3 approval comes just four days after fellow sports-focused platform Sporttrade received its own federal exchange designation. Both companies announced the completion of their exchange and clearinghouse registrations Tuesday.
Prediction markets, polls signal Democratic takeover of Congress
Prediction markets are pricing a Democratic takeover of Congress on the eve of Tuesday’s US midterm elections. On Monday, Kalshi put Democrats’ chances of winning control of the Senate at a record 74%, as final polling showed the party leading in key battleground races. Kalshi and Polymarket put Democrats’ chances of winning the House at roughly 94% to 95%, with the probability of a Democratic sweep of both chambers around 71% to 72%.
Sporttrade wins CFTC exchange approval after state betting exit
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved Sporttrade to operate as a federally regulated prediction market exchange, completing the company’s move away from state-licensed sports betting and clearing the way for its return to the US market. Sporttrade DCM LLC received designated contract market (DCM) status on Oct. 30, according to the CFTC’s registration records, which were updated Monday, Nov. 2, to reflect the approval. The approval follows the Oct.
PM Weekly: Utah crackdown, Kalshi at $40bn, midterms scrutiny
This week in prediction markets news, covering Oct. 24-30, NEXTPredict.io tracked Utah’s escalating confrontation with the prediction market industry, Kalshi’s new $40bn valuation and growing scrutiny of election markets ahead of the US midterms. Other developments included Polymarket’s security breach and fresh questions about its regulatory compliance, prediction-market expansion at Robinhood, Cboe and Coinbase and a wave of new products and partnerships across the industry.
DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics pull prediction markets in Utah
DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, three of the largest US sportsbook operators to expand into federally regulated prediction markets, are restricting event contract trading in Utah as the state’s crackdown on the industry escalates. Fanatics Markets confirmed to NEXTPredict.io that it will stop prediction market trading in Utah on Nov. 4, a broader restriction than those implemented by DraftKings and FanDuel in the state.
Polymarket halts trading after breach, users report major losses
Polymarket halted trading on its international prediction market platform Thursday after a third-party security breach, as traders reported having hundreds of thousands of dollars stolen from their accounts. The company said it had identified and fixed the issue affecting Polymarket.com and referred the incident to law enforcement.
US Senators probe Kalshi, Polymarket midterm election trading
Two US senators are demanding answers from Kalshi and Polymarket about insider trading and market manipulation in election-related contracts, giving the prediction market operators until Election Day to respond to a bipartisan inquiry announced just five days before the Nov. 3 midterms. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, and Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) sent a letter dated Oct. 28 to Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.
Kalshi hits $40bn valuation, up 20x since June 2025
Prediction market operator Kalshi has raised $1bn in a new funding round at a $40bn valuation, marking a 20x increase from the company’s $2bn valuation in June 2025. Kalshi confirmed the funding round to Reuters, which reported Thursday that it was co-led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management. The outlet also reported that Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group participated, citing a source familiar with the matter.
Utah files felony charges against Kalshi and its co-founders
Utah prosecutors filed criminal charges Wednesday against Kalshi and its co-founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. The state accused the prediction market operator of violating the Utah’s gambling laws by offering sports event contracts to its residents. The filing lists 14 criminal counts against KalshiEx LLC and names the two co-founders as co-defendants.
CFTC forum raises AI trading questions for prediction markets
Who should be held responsible if an AI-powered trading agent uses improperly obtained information to trade on prediction markets? That question was among those raised Wednesday at a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) forum examining how existing trading laws apply to autonomous software. Wednesday’s event was the first in the CFTC’s Frontier Forum series, organized by its Innovation Task Force to examine emerging financial technologies. It followed the Aug.
Polymarket US reaches deal to halt Michigan sports contracts
Polymarket US has agreed to close all remaining sports-related event contract positions held by Michigan residents by Nov. 25 under a court-approved agreement with state officials. The agreement, announced Wednesday by the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB), formalizes the company’s halt on new sports trading in the state and establishes a deadline for closing existing positions. In exchange, Michigan has agreed not to pursue enforcement against the company as long as it complies.
Robinhood prediction market revenue hits $173m as Rothera surges
Robinhood’s prediction market revenue surged more than sixfold year over year to $173m in the third quarter of 2026, as trading volumes reached a new record and its Rothera exchange joint venture expanded rapidly. Event-contract trading volume reached a record 16.4bn contracts, up more than sevenfold from 2.3bn a year earlier and 21% from the previous quarter’s 13.6bn.
CFTC, OG.com sue Utah in separate prediction market cases
The US government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have sued Utah to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against federally regulated prediction markets, while Crypto.com-backed OG.com filed a separate lawsuit the same day seeking to prevent similar action against its exchange.
Rothera taps Citadel, ICE, OCC veterans for seven senior roles
Rothera has announced seven leadership appointments, bringing experience from major exchanges, clearinghouses and trading firms to the prediction market operator as it expands its institutional trading business. The exchange, founded as a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, said the appointments cover risk management, compliance, technology, security, operations, legal and product development.
New York fights CFTC swaps rule that Kalshi cites across states
New York is urging a federal judge to disregard the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) proposal to explicitly classify sports event contracts as swaps, arguing that the unfinished rule has no legal effect in the federal government’s effort to block state gambling enforcement against prediction markets. The challenge came in an Oct.
Nasdaq seeks CFTC exchange approval for CPI prediction markets
Nasdaq has applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a new derivatives exchange that would initially offer prediction markets tied to US inflation data, expanding the stock exchange operator’s push into the growing event-contract industry. The application, posted Monday, seeks designated contract market (DCM) status for Nasdaq MRX Futures, LLC.
NBA, CFTC sign integrity deal as league adds Kalshi, Polymarket
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and National Basketball Association (NBA) announced Monday that they have signed an agreement to cooperate on integrity issues involving professional basketball and related prediction markets.
Gemini to halt sports prediction markets in Ohio following state crackdown
Gemini Titan will stop offering sports event contracts to Ohio customers Nov. 6, becoming the latest prediction market operator to withdraw sports trading services from the state amid a regulatory crackdown. In an email sent to Ohio customers Friday evening and reviewed by NEXTPredict, Gemini said users will no longer be able to place new orders or sell existing sports contract positions after Nov. 6.
Senate control predictions clash on stage at NEXTPredict NYC
Four podiums lined the stage at NEXTPredict NYC on Friday, with a map of competitive US Senate races and live prediction market odds displayed on giant screens behind them. It looked more like a televised political debate than a typical industry conference panel. But instead of arguing over political positions, the participants were debating which party would control the US Senate after the Nov. 3 midterm elections — and whether prediction markets had the odds right.
Markets beat polls on speed, not always accuracy, experts say
Prediction markets can react to political developments faster than traditional polls and forecasting models, but that speed doesn’t necessarily make them more accurate, election experts said Friday at NEXTPredict Summit NYC. The discussion, titled Who Calls the Midterms: Polls, Models or the Markets?, was moderated by former Meet the Press host Chuck Todd, who is hosting the summit’s main-stage sessions.
Prediction market pioneers debate volume boom’s accuracy cost
A group of researchers and pioneers who helped shape prediction markets long before the industry’s recent boom questioned Thursday whether its explosive growth is actually producing more accurate forecasts. The discussion came during Wisdom of the Crowds: Do Prediction Markets Beat Wall Street?, the final main-stage panel of Day 1 at NEXTPredict NYC.
Prediction market executives expect non-sports majority by 2029
Three of four industry executives and investors speaking at NEXTPredict NYC on Thursday predicted that non-sports contracts would account for more than half of the prediction market industry by 2029, even as the legal future of sports event contracts remains uncertain. The forecasts came during a panel titled Beyond Sports: Where Event Contracts Go Next, moderated by Bob Fitzsimmons, executive vice president at Wedbush Securities.
Polymarket says it can identify suspicious traders within minutes
Polymarket says it can identify individuals behind suspicious trading on its international platform within minutes, while its US exchange is screening traders against lists of politicians and campaign personnel. Olivia Chalos (pictured above, far left), Polymarket’s deputy chief legal officer, discussed the company’s surveillance methods Thursday during an insider-trading panel at NEXTPredict NYC titled The Insider Threat: Can Event Markets Stay Clean?
Prediction markets could outgrow stocks says hedge fund manager
Prediction markets could eventually become a bigger business than the stock market, according to hedge fund manager Neal Berger, who sees enormous growth potential as institutional investors move into the industry.
PM Weekly: Election surge, sports lawsuits, new markets
This week in prediction markets news, covering Oct. 10–16, NEXTPredict.io tracked intensifying US legal battles over sports contracts, growing election-market activity ahead of the US midterms and new opportunities for event-based trading. Other developments included fresh questions about market oversight, new safeguards against harassment, expanding prediction-market businesses and regulatory debates in the UK and Brazil.
Taiwan detains Polymarket trader as election trading crackdown escalates
Taiwanese authorities have detained another Polymarket trader accused of illegally trading on local elections, the latest development in one of the world’s most aggressive crackdowns on prediction markets. The detention follows months of investigations and prosecutions targeting individual traders, including one case involving a transaction worth about $7 in US dollars. Taiwan has also moved to block access to Kalshi and Coinbase, joining Polymarket on its list of restricted platforms.
Lumina launches standalone retail platform for ForecastEx prediction markets
Lumina Markets launched a standalone prediction market platform Monday, giving retail traders a new way to access ForecastEx contracts without navigating Interactive Brokers’ traditional brokerage platforms. The new platform, available on the web and through iOS and Android apps, is backed by Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy. It offers no sports contracts and avoids “gamification” features, aiming to make prediction markets accessible without turning trading into entertainment.
Kalshi is taking another step toward launching single-stock perpetual futures, submitting clearinghouse rule amendments just days after three major US exchange operators challenged the legal basis for the proposed products. In an Oct.
DraftKings Predictions Volume Hits $11B Run Rate as DKeX Takes Bigger Role
DraftKings’ prediction market business accelerated sharply through the second quarter and into July, with annualized total trading volume reaching $11 billion as the company prepares to move much of its major sports activity onto its own exchange ahead of football season. More than 600,000 customers have used DraftKings Predictions this year, according to the company’s Q2 investor letter.
Polymarket Becomes Official Prediction Market Partner of Yankees as New York Legal Battles Heat Up
Polymarket has become an official prediction market partner of the New York Yankees, adding one of the biggest brands in American sports to the platform’s rapidly expanding roster of sports partnerships. The deal announced Thursday will put Polymarket branding inside Yankee Stadium and in front of viewers watching locally televised Yankees games for the remainder of the 2026 season.
Novig Launches Federally Regulated Sports Prediction Market Platform Through Ludlow Exchange
Novig has launched its federally regulated sports prediction market platform through Ludlow Exchange, completing its transition from a sweepstakes-based model after months of preparation for a nationwide rollout. The updated Novig app went live Aug.
Novig Receives CFTC Approval as ProphetX Launches Sports Prediction Markets Days After Designation
Novig is positioned to become the next peer-to-peer sports trading platform to move from a sweepstakes model into a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated prediction market framework, after the agency approved designated contract market (DCM) status for Ludlow Exchange, an entity tied to the company.
Mike Breen: Spurs defy NBA norms with young roster success, Luke Cornette’s iconic blocks, and SGA’s standout performance overshadowed by team dynamics | Pardon My Take
Key takeaways The San Antonio Spurs are defying NBA conventions with their young roster and unexpected playoff success. The Spurs’ playoff performance is particularly impressive given their youth and inexperience. Luke Cornette’s crucial blocks have become defining moments of the NBA season. SGA was outstanding in game seven but lacked sufficient support from his team. Chet Holmgren struggled under pressure during the series, especially in game seven.
Fanatics Markets Launches FIFA World Cup Prediction Markets Hub with ADI Predictstreet
Fanatics Markets is rolling out a dedicated FIFA World Cup 2026 hub inside its prediction markets product, adding another sports-focused event to the company’s growing event contract trading business ahead of this summer’s tournament. The hub launched Wednesday through a partnership with ADI Predictstreet, the Gibraltar-licensed company FIFA named as its official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup.
DraftKings Predictions Tops $2.3B Annualized Volume Ahead of Railbird Launch, Parlay Rollout
Key Takeaways ▸ In its Q1 earnings release, DraftKings said April annualized prediction markets trading volume topped $2.3 billion while customer acquisition costs fell more than 80%.
Wisconsin Sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com Over Sports Contracts in ‘Race to the Courthouse’
Key Takeaways ▸ State also names Robinhood and Coinbase in Kalshi case, seeking injunctions and forfeitures as it argues prediction markets function as illegal sports betting. ▸ Wisconsin says sports event contracts are “indistinguishable from an ordinary sports bet,” underpinning its claim that prediction markets violate state gambling law.
DraftKings Unveils ‘Super App’ Plans to Capture $10B Prediction Market Opportunity
DraftKings used its 2026 Investor Day on Monday to lay out its clearest vision yet for prediction markets, projecting a $10 billion annual gross revenue opportunity and detailing a vertically integrated strategy centered on nationwide distribution through its new “Super App” and deeper exchange control.
Novig Raises $75M, Positions CFTC-Regulated Exchange as Future of Sports Betting
Sports prediction market platform Novig has raised $75 million in Series B funding led by crypto investment firm Pantera Capital, a move that comes as the company pushes toward federal regulatory approval that could allow nationwide operation under financial market oversight rather than state sportsbook licensing or sweepstakes-style operating models.
Florida Bills Advance, Raising Enforcement Stakes for Sweepstakes Casinos
Two major Florida gambling enforcement bills advanced Tuesday in separate legislative hearings, with lawmakers emphasizing illegal gaming machines and consumer protection concerns while largely sidestepping discussion of online gambling platforms like sweepstakes casinos. The measures, SB 1580 in the Senate and HB 189 in the House, both expand regulatory oversight and clarify parts of Florida’s complex gaming framework.
VGW Founder & CEO Laurence Escalante Faces Criminal Charges in Australia, Taking Leave Of Absence
Australian billionaire Laurence Escalante appeared before a Perth court on Friday morning to face multiple criminal charges, including allegations of family violence, aggravated assault, burglary, and drug offenses. The founder of huge sweepstakes gaming conglomerate Virtual Gaming Worlds (VGW), Escalante, 44, is accused of breaking into the Perth home of a 24-year-old woman, described as his former partner, on Jan. 26.
How Robinhood’s MIAX Plans Could Impact Kalshi
For much of 2025, Kalshi’s rise as the first scaled, regulated U.S. prediction market platform was closely tied to Robinhood. When the retail brokerage launched event contracts inside its app in March of 2025, routing trades to Kalshi as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), Kalshi’s trading volumes surged. That relationship could now face a potentially consequential test.
NY Online Casino Legislation Resurfaces in 2026
As New York lawmakers return for the 2026 legislative session, legalizing real-money online casino gaming is back on the agenda. For the fifth straight year, state Sen. Joseph Addabbo Jr. has introduced legislation to license, tax, and regulate iGaming in the Empire State. Addabbo, a Democrat from Queens and chair of the Senate Racing, Gaming, and Wagering Committee, re-introduced Senate Bill S2614 on Jan. 7.
Coinbase Acquiring The Clearing Company To Help Power Prediction Markets
Crypto exchange Coinbase is continuing to make moves to bolster its new prediction market offerings. Coinbase announced today that it is acquiring The Clearing Company, a prediction market startup that is awaiting approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for designation as a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). In its announcement, Coinbase said the acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions and that it is expected to close in January.
Prediction Markets on Pace for $1 Trillion Volume by 2030, Reports Say
Prediction markets have experienced an eye-popping growth spurt in 2025, with record-breaking trading volume, institutional engagement, an increasing number of entrants, regulatory progress, and growing mainstream awareness and adoption. The rapid industry expansion isn’t likely to slow down in 2026 and beyond according to a trio of reports released this week.
Coinbase Adding Kalshi Prediction Markets, Stock Trading
Coinbase, the largest US-based crypto exchange by trading volume, has officially announced that it will be offering prediction markets on its platform. The markets will be powered by Kalshi, the prediction market powerhouse that is currently battling Polymarket for global market supremacy. Coinbase announced its prediction market additions today during its System Update livestream event.
New Coalition For Prediction Markets Formed By Top Exchanges
A new national lobbying group, Coalition for Prediction Markets, was announced today. The CPM is “dedicated to preserving safe, transparent, and federally supervised access to prediction markets,” according to a news release. The initial members of the CPM are leading prediction platforms Kalshi and Crypto.com, top DFS operator Underdog, retail broker Robinhood, and crypto exchange Coinbase, which is expected to announce its prediction market plans later this month.
Gemini crypto exchange gains CFTC approval for prediction markets
Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss over a decade ago, has received the necessary approval by federal regulators to launch prediction markets. Gemini filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for approval for its Gemini Titan LLC to be registered as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) in May.
Gemini Crypto Exchange Gains CFTC Approval For Prediction Markets
Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss over a decade ago, has received the necessary approval by federal regulators to launch prediction markets. Gemini filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for approval for its Gemini Titan LLC to be registered as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) in May.
Matchbook Ready to Strike With US Sports Exchange After UK Trial
Sports betting exchange Matchbook is launching a UK prediction market platform in January in anticipation of a 2026 US launch. For the US product, the Guernsey-based operator is teaming up with RSBIX, which is currently awaiting federal regulatory approval to offer prediction markets nationwide. Matchbook interim CEO Ronan McDonagh told Bloomberg that the UK launch is a “road test” for the forthcoming US platform. He also said that he expects US regulatory approval by as soon as March.
IC360, Eventus Partner For Prediction Market Integrity Monitoring
Gaming technology platform Integrity Compliance 360 (IC360) and financial market monitor Eventus today announced they were teaming up to enhance their integrity monitoring of prediction markets. Together, the integrity monitoring service providers will develop “best practices, compliance standards, and regulatory frameworks for prediction market operators,” while also monitoring markets for suspicious trading behavior to help detect things like prohibited insider trading.
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