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Articles by MRM Research
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Mar 22, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Tencent (700 HK) Tactical Outlook After Positive Earnings Results On March 18 Tencent (700 HK) reported Q4 2025 revenue of RMB 194.4B (+13 YoY), and non-IFRS net profit of RMB 64.7B (+17 YoY), operating margin up,strong free cash flow. The stock has rebounded from its low at 498.80 2 weeks ago, after a severe downtrend, this is its third week up, reached 550.5 on Wednesday.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Mar 8, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook Ahead of March 6th Index Rebalance As written yesterday by Brian Freitas the constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) will be effective after the close of trading on 6 March, using 3 March data.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Mar 1, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook After IMSC’s March Index Review As discussed in detail by Brian Freitas the IMSC of NSE Indices has announced the results of the March index review on Feb 23rd. There are no constituent changes forthe NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) .
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Feb 22, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: A Good BUY Setup For This Week Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has experienced a massive rally in the last few months, since October. Recently the stock reached the Outliers zone in our model. Was overbought, last Friday.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Feb 15, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Taking Off? NOT YET! BYD (1211 HK) had a difficult week last week, dropped nearly 10%, but a recovery rally this week is bringing the stock back to previous price levels (last close=99.15). We insist that BYD (1211 HK) may be in the process of bottoming and possibly restart rallying.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Feb 8, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. GOLD Tactical Outlook: Downside Risk Re-Emerging In our last Gold tactical outlook/insight on Jan 26 we signaled Gold (GOLD COMDTY) was massively overbought, the metal started to fall hard the following week. The pullback was followed by a furious 2-day rally, and now Gold (GOLD COMDTY) is back to really overbought levels! (at least according to our WEEKLY models).
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Feb 1, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Tactical Outlook: Where Is GOLD Going? Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has doubled in price since Jan 2025. And it is massively overbought, according to our model. For sure not a good sign. In the last few years when stock markets went down, Gold was also sold off, so it was not a safe haven. In this insight we will have a look at the SHORT case, and where to buy Gold again on the pullback.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Jan 25, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. China Mobile (941 HK) High-Conviction Tactical Entry China Mobile (941 HK) has been downtrending since mid-November, this insight assesses the Convexity of a China Mobile Long Position based on our model probabilistic forecast.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Jan 18, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Buying Opportunity Despite Overvaluation Concerns Softbank Group (9984 JP) revealed in early November the sale of all its NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) stake. Softbank sold off for the entire month, losing 44% of its value.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Jan 11, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Outlook as Review Period for March Index Rebalance Enters Final Weeks As recently reported by Brian Freitas the review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends in 4 weeks. The index committee may execute only 2-3 changes.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Jan 4, 2026
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes. This insight is an update of the insight published on December 15th. The BYD (1211 HK) stock has been downtrending for a while, and LONG positioning starts to become attractive.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Dec 21, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Time To Go LONG? Not Yet. BYD (1211 HK) has been downtrending for a while, a speculative LONG positioning starts to become attractive for some, but according to our model the short-term upside is limited.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Dec 14, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook: Undervalued and Rising On October 21st we published an insight predicting Toyota Motor’s imminent pullback. The stock started to pullback the following week, the correction lasted for a few weeks. After last week’s weakness, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is rallying again. There’s conflicting sentiment on valuation—some see it as undervalued.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Dec 7, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Tactical Outlook Post–NIFTY Bank Index Overhaul Brian Freitas has discussed in a recent insight the methodology changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index that will be implemented starting from December 30. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of the two stocks that passive trackers need to sell (the other is ICICI Bank Ltd).
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Nov 30, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Xiaomi (1810 HK): Top Trades Bet on a Bullish Trend Reversal Context: Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided. Highlights: 55% of strategies exhibit a bullish bias, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Nov 23, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook Ahead of December 6 Rebalance As Brian Freitas recently outlined, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) changes will be announced November 21st (this Friday) and take effect on December 6th. Brian predicted index additions and no deletions. As with all rebalances, inflows, outflows, and adjustments could trigger volatility.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Nov 16, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook Ahead of December Rebalance As Brian Freitas recently outlined: the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) will undergo its semi-annual review by the end of November 2025, there could be profit-taking as we near that date. In our previous insight we flagged potential downside tail risk.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Nov 9, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook Amidst Potential Passive Flows From Global Trackers Brian Freitas posted an insight Monday discussing how Indian stocks may experience significant passive inflows and outflows from global trackers over coming weeks. Read his insight for more detail.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Nov 2, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Nikkei 225 (NKY) Outlook After Surprise Nov 5 Rebalance As reported by Brian Freitas, the JPX on Oct 27 suddenly announced that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) would be deleted from the Nikkei 225 and replaced by Ibiden (4062 JP).
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Oct 19, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Tariff Shock Sends HK Volatility Higher: Meituan (3690 HK) Looks Cheap, Alibaba (9988 HK) Stays Rich Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for eight prominent Hong Kong stocks and the HSI Index.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Oct 5, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Waiting for A Rally In our previous Fast Retailing (9983 JP) insight we identified a potential BUY opportunity ahead of the September 25 rebalance, but the rally failed to materialize. The stock at the moment is oversold, according to our quantitative model, so we would like to review its tactical outlook in this insight.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Sep 21, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. KOSPI 200 Tactical Call: Positioning for September Pullback The KOSPI 200 INDEX reached a new all time high last Friday, closing at 462.74. Let’s be clear: it’s very overbought according to our model. Our forecast is that the index will NOT rally for more than another 1 or 2 weeks (i.e. this week and maybe one more week).
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Sep 14, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Volatility Cones: Spotting Opportunities in Tencent, JD.com, Ping An & More Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. Highlights: Major stocks, including Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK), trade at historically cheap implied volatility.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Sep 7, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Maybe Soon Is Time to BUY… In our previous insight we correctly forecasted a short-lived, 2-3 weeks relief rally for BYD (1211 HK) , followed by a new downtrend (started this week). The stock went into OVERSOLD territory according to our model, this week. It’s however a bit early to BUY, the stock could fall more.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Aug 31, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance In his recent insight, Brian Freitas stated that Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance. The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Aug 24, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Hang Seng Index (HSI) Outlook Ahead of Sep25 Rebalance Brian Freitas has highlighted in his August 18th’s insight the details of what to expect in the upcoming, September 5, index rebalance for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) .
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook : New Rally After Large Pullback? Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been rallying for quite a while in the last few weeks, and we have been bullish on the stock since the start of the year.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Aug 3, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1 A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 28 – August 1. OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) are just mildly oversold, NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is oversold.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Jul 27, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review As outlined by Brian Freitas , the NIFTY Index ‘s September rebalance ends July 31st, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented on September 29th. The index has been pulling back for 3 weeks, it’s oversold according to our model, 75% probability of reversing up this week.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Jul 6, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of June 30 – July 4 A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week June 30 – July 4. US Markets will be closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th. Most stocks and global indices appear to be overbought or nearly overbought.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Jun 29, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Oversold: Your High-Potential Options Strategy Context: After three consecutive down weeks, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has entered oversold territory, triggering a potential upside signal in quantitative models.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Jun 22, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Following Regulatory Pushback on Market Dominance As reported by Ming Lu, Chinese regulators are pushing back against BYD (1211 HK)’s dominance, which has strained smaller domestic EV competitors. Read his latest BYD insight for more details. In a recent insightwe signaled BYD was tactically overbought. The stock fell rapidly right after.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Jun 15, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Post-Index Rebalance Announcement As reported by Brian Freitas on 6 June the list of changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices was announced, including some change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). The S&P/ASX 200 index has become quite overbought as of last Friday’s Close, a pullback is probably imminent.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Outlook Amid Uncertainty Over Toyota Industries Privatization Bid Travis Lundy and Arun George have recently written extensively about Toyota Industries (6201 JP) proposed takeover. Read the details in their insights.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Jun 1, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Alibaba (9988 HK): Unpacking the Week’s Savvy Top Options Trades Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided. Popular Strategies: Over 35% of all strategies are Calendar or Diagonal Spreads.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - May 25, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View: Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally? Since April 28th we traced a path for Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s stock price, first here (forecast: going down) and then here (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578). Last week Toyota Motor (7203 JP)pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target).
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following $7B AI Chip Deal with Saudi Arabia NVIDIA stock rose over 3% Wednesday morning, after news of a reported multi-billion-dollar AI chip deal with Saudi Arabia, announced during an investment forum attended by President Trump.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - May 11, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. CSI 300 Index: Tactical Outlook Following the Labor Day Holiday Following an extended holiday beginning May 1st, the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) resumes trading on May 6th. The WEEKLY close before the holiday—during a shortened trading week—was modestly negative. However, the index would need to decline to 3697 or lower to trigger a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - May 4, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Apr 27, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. BYD (1211 HK) Positioning Ahead of Q1 2025 Results BYD (1211 HK) will release its Q1 2025 results on April 25. The company has issued a positive profit alert, projecting net income around RMB 8.5 – 10 billion. Expected earnings per share ranging from RMB 2.91 to RMB 3.42, up from RMB 1.57 in the same period last year.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Apr 20, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Apr 13, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. CSI 300 Index Outlook After Trump’s Threat of 50% Tariff on China The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) was less impacted than other indices by the global sell-off: on Monday it was down only -10% from the recent top.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Apr 6, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers A recent insight by Brian Freitas signals that BYD (1211 HK)buying from global index trackers is done (more passive buying from HSI/HSCEI trackers may come later this month).
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Mar 30, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades – Strategies That Stand Out. This Insight analyses Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided. These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights Tencent (700 HK) / Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025. Options pricing implies a 4-6% move after earnings, significantly higher than historical patterns. From an options perspective, calendar spreads offer opportunities.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Mar 16, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. S&P/ASX 200 Index Outlook Post-Rebalance The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has suffered a continuous sell-off for the past 3 weeks. The index is deeply oversold, our model predicts an imminent reversal. The reversal could lift the index to the 8091-8208 price area, but the index may start to fall again after that.
Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives - Mar 9, 2025
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma. 1. BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Tactical Buy Opportunity in Key Support Zone As recently written by Brian Freitas and Sumeet Singh , BYD (1211 HK) is placing new shares on the market at at a price range of HK$333-345/share. The stock today dropped to roughly 340 and it’s oversold WEEKLY according to our models. Buying here, at this price, should bear fruit in coming weeks.
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