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Articles by Neil Gilfedder
The Power of Diversification in Volatile Markets
If there’s one force that reliably fuels market volatility, it’s uncertainty – and lately, investors have been swimming in it. Markets are reacting to a mix of forces that are difficult to forecast: shifting trade and tariff policies, an increasingly fragile geopolitical backdrop, ongoing overseas conflicts and questions about the global economic outlook. Markets, like the people behind them, tend to dislike unknowns.
Should Investors Worry About a Crisis?
Increasingly, the national debt is making headlines – especially given 2025’s heated debates about taxes, spending and the money it takes to keep the government running. The numbers are almost unfathomable: As of Nov. 12, 2025, the U.S. government owed $38,121,217,149,187.64. (Yes, it’s tracked to the penny!) That’s up from $4.3 trillion in April 1993, a nearly ninefold increase. But before we panic, let’s ask: Is this a problem for investors? Of course, a dollar today isn’t what it was in 1993.
Why Forecasts Often Miss the Mark
Life can feel a little like a sitcom every January – a bit formulaic. You can rest assured that gyms and meal planning services will see record enrollments. People will swear off credit cards, for good this time. It’ll snow in Buffalo. Maybe most predictable will be the annual predictions. Stocks will soar in 2026. Or they’ll tumble into a bear market. The market prognostication happens every year.
Why Diversification Matters in 2025
If you’ve ever been an underdog, you know it can be tough. But underdogs have a special power. As the saying goes, “Being the underdog means no one sees you coming until it’s too late.” That’s the story of European stocks. While European stocks have posted impressive gains at times during the last decade, U.S. large-cap stocks, driven by the Magnificent 7, have risen a lot more. The cumulative gain of U.S. large-cap stocks has been three times that of European stocks in the past 10 years.
Why Bonds Still Matter: Lessons from April’s Market Shake-Up
Doubt the power of bonds at your own risk. Need proof? Just look at what happened in April. First, let’s consider a basic fact: The bond market is huge and bigger than the stock market globally, despite the fact that stocks get all the media attention. The total value of the global equity market was $130.4 trillion at the end of 2024, with the U.S. having the largest share, according to industry data.
4 Essential Charts to Help You Stay Calm During Market Declines
2025’s market volatility is proving to be one for the record books. Here’s the thing about turbulent markets: They can turn us into our own worst enemy. But how much more damage can you do to your investment returns when the market’s already in a tailspin? Plenty. Let’s say your diversified retirement portfolio experiences losses week after week amid big declines in the market. You get anxious. Listening to the media only deepens your anxiety.
Diversifying and Protecting Your Portfolio in Today’s Market Volatility
So far, 2025 has excelled in one thing: uncertainty. Uncertainty around tariffs, tax policy, geopolitics, inflation, the direction of interest rates – the list is long. And if there is one thing that fuels market volatility, it’s uncertainty. Volatility is a natural part of the market, so it’s unavoidable when investing. Still, you want to protect your wealth and reach your retirement goals. So how can you help your portfolio do this amid all of today's unknowns? That’s where diversification comes in.
Does Gold Deserve a Core Spot in Your Portfolio?
Stocks have proven to be a better long-term inflation hedge, as their returns have outpaced the rate of inflation more than gold over time. That’s just another reason to prefer exposure to stocks over gold in a retirement portfolio. Because gold can be perceived as having enduring value, investors may flee to gold as a safe haven during times of market uncertainty and turbulence. But gold’s safe haven status in the market can vary depending on the circumstance.
February Market Insights Edelman Financial Engines
There’s been a private revolution happening in the financial markets. While the media is captivated by the latest gyrations in digital currencies, longstanding traditions are being upended elsewhere. For years, there have been investment strategies that were only used by institutions and the ultra-wealthy. Now, these strategies are being used by everyday investors. Among the most popular of these “institutional” strategies are those that tap into the private debt and equity markets.
January Market Insights | Edelman Financial Engines
“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” – John Kenneth Galbraith The holiday season may be over, but the season of Wall Street’s annual forecasts continues. Big banks and asset managers often do a fine job laying out a narrative for what could move markets and the economy in the year ahead.
December Market Insights Edelman Financial Engines
Cryptocurrencies have staged a stunning rally since the November election. Bitcoin, the most widely traded cryptocurrency, is up more than 40% and crossed $100,000 for the first time. Spectacular rallies are nothing new for cryptocurrencies, and neither are the damaging declines that can follow them, making crypto a very risky investment. So, what’s behind the latest rally?
A Diversified Portfolio Outlasts Election Cycles
The election is over, and regardless of who you voted for, you may be wondering whether you have the right investment strategy for what’s next. Quite frankly, we believe that ignoring politics is a great long-term investment strategy. Here’s why. In 11 of the 13 presidential elections cycles since 1972, the S&P 500 has had positive returns in the 12 months after the election.
Market Insights – May | Edelman Financial Engines
Stocks ended May higher, even after faltering in the second half of the month. U.S. large-cap stocks (S&P 500) gained 4.96% while small caps (S&P 600) rose 5.04%. On the international front, developed-market international stocks (MSCI EAFE) gained 3.87% while emerging-market stocks (MSCI Emerging Markets) rose 0.57%.
Market Insights – March | Edelman Financial Engines
The markets gained in March, with U.S. and international stocks rising along with U.S. bonds, all of which was good news for broadly diversified portfolios. U.S. large-cap stocks (S&P 500) gained 3.22% while small caps (S&P 600) rose 3.24%. Emerging-market stocks (MSCI Emerging Markets) increased 2.48% and developed-market international stocks (MSCI EAFE) gained 3.29%.
Market Insights – February | Edelman Financial Engines
Stocks rallied in February, with portfolios that have exposure to both U.S. and international stocks benefitting. U.S. large-cap stocks (S&P 500) gained 5.34% while small caps (S&P 600) rose 3.32%. Emerging-market stocks (MSCI Emerging Markets) increased 4.76% and developed-market international stocks (MSCI EAFE) rose 1.83%.
May Market Insights
What happened After an uneasy month, stock market returns were restrained: U.S. large-cap stocks (S&P 500) were up 0.4% for the month, while small-caps (S&P 600) were down 1.8%. Emerging-market stocks (MSCI Emerging Markets) lost 1.7% and developed-market international stocks (MSCI EAFE) were down 4.2%. By far the most positive corner of the stock market was the technology sector, thanks to the strong performance of NVIDIA and other AI-related stocks.
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